Opinion Poll by GfK for Die Presse, 26 November–9 December 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 34.0% | 32.7–35.4% | 32.3–35.8% | 31.9–36.1% | 31.3–36.8% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 26.0% | 24.8–27.3% | 24.4–27.7% | 24.1–28.0% | 23.5–28.6% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 23.5% | 22.3–24.8% | 22.0–25.1% | 21.7–25.4% | 21.1–26.0% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 7.5% | 6.8–8.3% | 6.6–8.6% | 6.4–8.7% | 6.1–9.1% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.9–6.2% | 4.7–6.4% | 4.6–6.6% | 4.3–7.0% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 1.5% | 1.2–1.9% | 1.1–2.0% | 1.1–2.1% | 0.9–2.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 65 | 62–67 | 61–68 | 61–69 | 60–70 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 49 | 47–52 | 46–53 | 46–53 | 45–54 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 45 | 42–47 | 42–48 | 41–48 | 40–49 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 14 | 12–15 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 11–17 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 4% | 98% | |
| 62 | 7% | 95% | Last Result |
| 63 | 16% | 88% | |
| 64 | 15% | 71% | |
| 65 | 18% | 56% | Median |
| 66 | 12% | 38% | |
| 67 | 16% | 26% | |
| 68 | 7% | 10% | |
| 69 | 2% | 3% | |
| 70 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 46 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 47 | 10% | 95% | |
| 48 | 19% | 84% | |
| 49 | 17% | 65% | Median |
| 50 | 22% | 48% | |
| 51 | 13% | 27% | |
| 52 | 7% | 13% | Last Result |
| 53 | 4% | 6% | |
| 54 | 2% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 4% | 99.1% | |
| 42 | 7% | 95% | |
| 43 | 12% | 88% | |
| 44 | 25% | 76% | |
| 45 | 19% | 51% | Median |
| 46 | 20% | 33% | |
| 47 | 6% | 13% | |
| 48 | 5% | 7% | |
| 49 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 11% | 99.2% | |
| 13 | 17% | 88% | |
| 14 | 41% | 71% | Median |
| 15 | 22% | 30% | |
| 16 | 7% | 9% | |
| 17 | 2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 25% | 96% | |
| 10 | 37% | 71% | Median |
| 11 | 25% | 34% | |
| 12 | 8% | 9% | |
| 13 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 114 | 100% | 112–117 | 111–118 | 110–118 | 109–120 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 109 | 100% | 107–112 | 106–113 | 105–113 | 104–115 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 94 | 88% | 91–97 | 91–98 | 90–98 | 89–100 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 72 | 89 | 12% | 86–92 | 85–92 | 85–93 | 83–94 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 79 | 0% | 76–82 | 75–82 | 75–82 | 74–84 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 75 | 0% | 72–78 | 72–78 | 71–79 | 70–80 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 74 | 0% | 71–76 | 70–77 | 70–78 | 68–79 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 65 | 0% | 62–67 | 61–68 | 61–69 | 60–70 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 49 | 0% | 47–52 | 46–53 | 46–53 | 45–54 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 110 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 111 | 5% | 96% | |
| 112 | 10% | 91% | |
| 113 | 15% | 81% | |
| 114 | 20% | 66% | Last Result, Median |
| 115 | 22% | 46% | |
| 116 | 12% | 25% | |
| 117 | 6% | 12% | |
| 118 | 4% | 6% | |
| 119 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 105 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 106 | 5% | 97% | |
| 107 | 8% | 92% | |
| 108 | 13% | 83% | |
| 109 | 20% | 70% | |
| 110 | 19% | 50% | Median |
| 111 | 13% | 31% | |
| 112 | 10% | 18% | |
| 113 | 5% | 7% | Last Result |
| 114 | 2% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 90 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 91 | 7% | 96% | |
| 92 | 17% | 88% | Majority |
| 93 | 12% | 71% | |
| 94 | 16% | 59% | Median |
| 95 | 16% | 43% | |
| 96 | 16% | 28% | |
| 97 | 6% | 12% | |
| 98 | 4% | 6% | |
| 99 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 100 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 84 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 85 | 4% | 98% | |
| 86 | 6% | 94% | |
| 87 | 16% | 88% | |
| 88 | 16% | 72% | |
| 89 | 16% | 57% | Median |
| 90 | 12% | 41% | |
| 91 | 17% | 29% | |
| 92 | 7% | 12% | Majority |
| 93 | 3% | 4% | |
| 94 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 75 | 5% | 98% | |
| 76 | 11% | 93% | |
| 77 | 14% | 82% | |
| 78 | 12% | 68% | |
| 79 | 10% | 56% | Median |
| 80 | 19% | 46% | |
| 81 | 15% | 26% | |
| 82 | 9% | 11% | |
| 83 | 2% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 71 | 3% | 98% | |
| 72 | 6% | 95% | |
| 73 | 14% | 89% | |
| 74 | 21% | 76% | |
| 75 | 15% | 54% | Median |
| 76 | 12% | 39% | |
| 77 | 16% | 27% | |
| 78 | 6% | 11% | |
| 79 | 4% | 5% | |
| 80 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 69 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 70 | 5% | 98% | |
| 71 | 10% | 93% | |
| 72 | 13% | 82% | |
| 73 | 19% | 69% | Median |
| 74 | 20% | 50% | |
| 75 | 13% | 30% | |
| 76 | 8% | 17% | |
| 77 | 5% | 8% | |
| 78 | 2% | 3% | |
| 79 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 4% | 98% | |
| 62 | 7% | 95% | Last Result |
| 63 | 16% | 88% | |
| 64 | 15% | 71% | |
| 65 | 18% | 56% | Median |
| 66 | 12% | 38% | |
| 67 | 16% | 26% | |
| 68 | 7% | 10% | |
| 69 | 2% | 3% | |
| 70 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 46 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 47 | 10% | 95% | |
| 48 | 19% | 84% | |
| 49 | 17% | 65% | Median |
| 50 | 22% | 48% | |
| 51 | 13% | 27% | |
| 52 | 7% | 13% | Last Result |
| 53 | 4% | 6% | |
| 54 | 2% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GfK
- Commissioner(s): Die Presse
- Fieldwork period: 26 November–9 December 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 2000
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 2.13%