Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 7–12 December 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 34.0% | 31.9–36.2% | 31.3–36.8% | 30.8–37.3% | 29.8–38.4% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 27.0% | 25.0–29.1% | 24.5–29.7% | 24.0–30.2% | 23.1–31.2% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 24.0% | 22.1–26.0% | 21.6–26.6% | 21.2–27.1% | 20.3–28.1% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.9–8.3% | 5.6–8.6% | 5.4–8.9% | 4.9–9.6% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.7–6.7% | 3.3–7.3% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.2% | 1.0–3.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 65 | 60–69 | 59–70 | 58–71 | 56–73 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 51 | 47–55 | 46–57 | 45–57 | 44–59 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 45 | 42–49 | 41–51 | 40–51 | 38–53 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 13 | 11–15 | 10–16 | 10–17 | 9–18 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 9 | 7–11 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98% | |
| 59 | 3% | 97% | |
| 60 | 4% | 94% | |
| 61 | 7% | 90% | |
| 62 | 8% | 82% | Last Result |
| 63 | 12% | 74% | |
| 64 | 11% | 62% | |
| 65 | 12% | 50% | Median |
| 66 | 12% | 39% | |
| 67 | 9% | 26% | |
| 68 | 7% | 17% | |
| 69 | 4% | 10% | |
| 70 | 3% | 7% | |
| 71 | 2% | 4% | |
| 72 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 45 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 46 | 3% | 97% | |
| 47 | 7% | 95% | |
| 48 | 5% | 88% | |
| 49 | 10% | 83% | |
| 50 | 15% | 72% | |
| 51 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 52 | 13% | 44% | Last Result |
| 53 | 10% | 31% | |
| 54 | 6% | 21% | |
| 55 | 6% | 15% | |
| 56 | 4% | 9% | |
| 57 | 3% | 5% | |
| 58 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 40 | 2% | 98% | |
| 41 | 5% | 96% | |
| 42 | 6% | 91% | |
| 43 | 13% | 85% | |
| 44 | 11% | 73% | |
| 45 | 14% | 62% | Median |
| 46 | 10% | 48% | |
| 47 | 13% | 37% | |
| 48 | 10% | 25% | |
| 49 | 6% | 15% | |
| 50 | 4% | 9% | |
| 51 | 3% | 6% | Last Result |
| 52 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 53 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 6% | 98.7% | Last Result |
| 11 | 12% | 93% | |
| 12 | 21% | 81% | |
| 13 | 21% | 60% | Median |
| 14 | 19% | 39% | |
| 15 | 12% | 20% | |
| 16 | 5% | 8% | |
| 17 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 93% | |
| 2 | 0% | 93% | |
| 3 | 0% | 93% | |
| 4 | 0% | 93% | |
| 5 | 0% | 93% | |
| 6 | 0% | 93% | |
| 7 | 4% | 93% | |
| 8 | 20% | 89% | |
| 9 | 31% | 69% | Median |
| 10 | 19% | 38% | |
| 11 | 12% | 19% | |
| 12 | 5% | 7% | |
| 13 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 116 | 100% | 111–120 | 110–122 | 109–123 | 107–127 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 110 | 100% | 105–115 | 104–116 | 103–117 | 102–120 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 97 | 94% | 92–101 | 91–103 | 90–104 | 88–106 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 72 | 86 | 6% | 82–91 | 80–92 | 79–93 | 77–95 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 77 | 0% | 73–82 | 72–83 | 71–85 | 69–87 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 73 | 0% | 68–78 | 67–79 | 66–80 | 63–81 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 73 | 0% | 68–78 | 67–78 | 65–80 | 63–82 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 65 | 0% | 60–69 | 59–70 | 58–71 | 56–73 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 51 | 0% | 47–55 | 46–57 | 45–57 | 44–59 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 108 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 109 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 110 | 3% | 97% | |
| 111 | 4% | 93% | |
| 112 | 5% | 89% | |
| 113 | 11% | 84% | |
| 114 | 10% | 73% | Last Result |
| 115 | 11% | 63% | |
| 116 | 13% | 52% | Median |
| 117 | 11% | 39% | |
| 118 | 9% | 28% | |
| 119 | 5% | 19% | |
| 120 | 5% | 15% | |
| 121 | 3% | 10% | |
| 122 | 2% | 6% | |
| 123 | 2% | 4% | |
| 124 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 125 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 127 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 102 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 103 | 1.5% | 98.6% | |
| 104 | 3% | 97% | |
| 105 | 5% | 94% | |
| 106 | 6% | 89% | |
| 107 | 6% | 83% | |
| 108 | 6% | 77% | |
| 109 | 15% | 72% | |
| 110 | 15% | 57% | Median |
| 111 | 10% | 42% | |
| 112 | 11% | 31% | |
| 113 | 5% | 20% | Last Result |
| 114 | 4% | 15% | |
| 115 | 5% | 12% | |
| 116 | 3% | 7% | |
| 117 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 118 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 119 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 89 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 90 | 2% | 98% | |
| 91 | 3% | 97% | |
| 92 | 5% | 94% | Majority |
| 93 | 9% | 89% | |
| 94 | 10% | 80% | |
| 95 | 10% | 71% | |
| 96 | 7% | 60% | Median |
| 97 | 13% | 53% | |
| 98 | 8% | 40% | |
| 99 | 11% | 31% | |
| 100 | 6% | 20% | |
| 101 | 5% | 14% | |
| 102 | 4% | 9% | |
| 103 | 2% | 6% | Last Result |
| 104 | 2% | 3% | |
| 105 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 106 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 77 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 78 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 79 | 2% | 98% | |
| 80 | 2% | 97% | |
| 81 | 4% | 94% | |
| 82 | 5% | 91% | |
| 83 | 6% | 86% | |
| 84 | 11% | 80% | |
| 85 | 9% | 69% | |
| 86 | 13% | 60% | |
| 87 | 7% | 47% | Median |
| 88 | 10% | 39% | |
| 89 | 10% | 29% | |
| 90 | 9% | 20% | |
| 91 | 5% | 11% | |
| 92 | 3% | 6% | Majority |
| 93 | 2% | 3% | |
| 94 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 95 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 70 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 71 | 2% | 98% | |
| 72 | 3% | 96% | Last Result |
| 73 | 5% | 93% | |
| 74 | 8% | 88% | |
| 75 | 9% | 80% | |
| 76 | 7% | 72% | |
| 77 | 17% | 64% | |
| 78 | 6% | 47% | Median |
| 79 | 11% | 41% | |
| 80 | 10% | 29% | |
| 81 | 7% | 19% | |
| 82 | 4% | 12% | |
| 83 | 3% | 8% | |
| 84 | 2% | 5% | |
| 85 | 2% | 3% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 64 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 65 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 66 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 67 | 3% | 96% | |
| 68 | 5% | 93% | |
| 69 | 4% | 88% | |
| 70 | 5% | 85% | |
| 71 | 11% | 80% | |
| 72 | 10% | 68% | |
| 73 | 15% | 58% | Median |
| 74 | 15% | 43% | |
| 75 | 6% | 28% | |
| 76 | 6% | 23% | |
| 77 | 6% | 17% | |
| 78 | 5% | 11% | |
| 79 | 3% | 6% | |
| 80 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 81 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 64 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 65 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 66 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 67 | 2% | 96% | |
| 68 | 4% | 94% | |
| 69 | 4% | 90% | |
| 70 | 7% | 86% | |
| 71 | 8% | 79% | |
| 72 | 8% | 71% | |
| 73 | 14% | 62% | |
| 74 | 10% | 48% | Median |
| 75 | 12% | 39% | |
| 76 | 7% | 26% | |
| 77 | 9% | 19% | |
| 78 | 6% | 11% | |
| 79 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 80 | 2% | 4% | |
| 81 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98% | |
| 59 | 3% | 97% | |
| 60 | 4% | 94% | |
| 61 | 7% | 90% | |
| 62 | 8% | 82% | Last Result |
| 63 | 12% | 74% | |
| 64 | 11% | 62% | |
| 65 | 12% | 50% | Median |
| 66 | 12% | 39% | |
| 67 | 9% | 26% | |
| 68 | 7% | 17% | |
| 69 | 4% | 10% | |
| 70 | 3% | 7% | |
| 71 | 2% | 4% | |
| 72 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 45 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 46 | 3% | 97% | |
| 47 | 7% | 95% | |
| 48 | 5% | 88% | |
| 49 | 10% | 83% | |
| 50 | 15% | 72% | |
| 51 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 52 | 13% | 44% | Last Result |
| 53 | 10% | 31% | |
| 54 | 6% | 21% | |
| 55 | 6% | 15% | |
| 56 | 4% | 9% | |
| 57 | 3% | 5% | |
| 58 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Market
- Commissioner(s): Der Standard
- Fieldwork period: 7–12 December 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 804
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.72%