Opinion Poll by Unique Research for profil, 10–14 December 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 35.0% | 32.9–37.2% | 32.3–37.8% | 31.8–38.4% | 30.8–39.4% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 26.0% | 24.1–28.1% | 23.5–28.7% | 23.1–29.2% | 22.2–30.2% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 22.0% | 20.2–24.0% | 19.7–24.5% | 19.3–25.0% | 18.4–26.0% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 8.0% | 6.9–9.4% | 6.6–9.8% | 6.3–10.1% | 5.8–10.8% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.0–7.2% | 4.8–7.6% | 4.6–7.9% | 4.1–8.5% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.2–3.2% | 1.0–3.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 66 | 62–70 | 61–71 | 60–72 | 59–74 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 49 | 45–53 | 44–54 | 43–55 | 42–57 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 42 | 38–45 | 37–46 | 36–47 | 35–49 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 15 | 13–17 | 12–18 | 12–19 | 10–20 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 11 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 8–15 | 8–16 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98% | |
| 61 | 2% | 96% | |
| 62 | 5% | 94% | Last Result |
| 63 | 12% | 89% | |
| 64 | 11% | 77% | |
| 65 | 3% | 65% | |
| 66 | 12% | 62% | Median |
| 67 | 18% | 50% | |
| 68 | 7% | 31% | |
| 69 | 6% | 24% | |
| 70 | 8% | 18% | |
| 71 | 7% | 10% | |
| 72 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 73 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 43 | 1.5% | 98.7% | |
| 44 | 4% | 97% | |
| 45 | 4% | 93% | |
| 46 | 9% | 89% | |
| 47 | 10% | 80% | |
| 48 | 15% | 70% | |
| 49 | 12% | 55% | Median |
| 50 | 8% | 43% | |
| 51 | 8% | 35% | |
| 52 | 12% | 27% | Last Result |
| 53 | 8% | 15% | |
| 54 | 3% | 7% | |
| 55 | 2% | 3% | |
| 56 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 36 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 37 | 5% | 96% | |
| 38 | 5% | 91% | |
| 39 | 10% | 86% | |
| 40 | 15% | 76% | |
| 41 | 10% | 61% | |
| 42 | 16% | 51% | Median |
| 43 | 9% | 35% | |
| 44 | 11% | 26% | |
| 45 | 7% | 15% | |
| 46 | 4% | 8% | |
| 47 | 2% | 5% | |
| 48 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 11 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 12 | 6% | 98% | |
| 13 | 12% | 91% | |
| 14 | 19% | 79% | |
| 15 | 22% | 60% | Median |
| 16 | 18% | 37% | |
| 17 | 10% | 19% | |
| 18 | 5% | 9% | |
| 19 | 2% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 9 | 13% | 96% | |
| 10 | 20% | 83% | |
| 11 | 22% | 63% | Median |
| 12 | 22% | 42% | |
| 13 | 12% | 20% | |
| 14 | 5% | 7% | |
| 15 | 2% | 3% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 115 | 100% | 111–120 | 109–121 | 108–121 | 107–124 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 108 | 100% | 104–112 | 102–113 | 101–115 | 99–116 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 72 | 92 | 57% | 88–96 | 87–97 | 86–99 | 83–101 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 91 | 43% | 87–95 | 86–96 | 84–97 | 82–100 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 81 | 0.1% | 77–85 | 76–86 | 75–87 | 73–90 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 77 | 0% | 73–81 | 72–83 | 71–84 | 69–86 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 75 | 0% | 71–79 | 70–81 | 68–82 | 67–84 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 66 | 0% | 62–70 | 61–71 | 60–72 | 59–74 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 49 | 0% | 45–53 | 44–54 | 43–55 | 42–57 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 106 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 109 | 3% | 97% | |
| 110 | 4% | 94% | |
| 111 | 2% | 90% | |
| 112 | 2% | 89% | |
| 113 | 9% | 87% | |
| 114 | 21% | 78% | Last Result |
| 115 | 18% | 57% | Median |
| 116 | 10% | 40% | |
| 117 | 3% | 29% | |
| 118 | 3% | 26% | |
| 119 | 6% | 24% | |
| 120 | 11% | 17% | |
| 121 | 4% | 6% | |
| 122 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 123 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 100 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 101 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 102 | 2% | 97% | |
| 103 | 4% | 95% | |
| 104 | 10% | 91% | |
| 105 | 9% | 81% | |
| 106 | 8% | 72% | |
| 107 | 7% | 63% | |
| 108 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 109 | 14% | 44% | |
| 110 | 13% | 30% | |
| 111 | 5% | 17% | |
| 112 | 4% | 12% | |
| 113 | 3% | 8% | Last Result |
| 114 | 2% | 5% | |
| 115 | 2% | 3% | |
| 116 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 84 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 85 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 86 | 3% | 98% | |
| 87 | 3% | 95% | |
| 88 | 8% | 92% | |
| 89 | 4% | 84% | |
| 90 | 5% | 80% | |
| 91 | 18% | 75% | |
| 92 | 11% | 57% | Median, Majority |
| 93 | 6% | 46% | |
| 94 | 10% | 40% | |
| 95 | 14% | 29% | |
| 96 | 6% | 15% | |
| 97 | 5% | 9% | |
| 98 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 99 | 2% | 4% | |
| 100 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 101 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 83 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 84 | 2% | 98% | |
| 85 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 86 | 5% | 95% | |
| 87 | 6% | 91% | |
| 88 | 14% | 84% | |
| 89 | 10% | 71% | |
| 90 | 6% | 60% | |
| 91 | 11% | 54% | Median |
| 92 | 18% | 43% | Majority |
| 93 | 5% | 25% | |
| 94 | 4% | 20% | |
| 95 | 8% | 16% | |
| 96 | 3% | 8% | |
| 97 | 3% | 5% | |
| 98 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 99 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 74 | 1.1% | 98.7% | |
| 75 | 3% | 98% | |
| 76 | 4% | 95% | |
| 77 | 7% | 91% | |
| 78 | 6% | 84% | |
| 79 | 7% | 79% | |
| 80 | 10% | 72% | |
| 81 | 16% | 62% | Median |
| 82 | 12% | 45% | |
| 83 | 8% | 33% | |
| 84 | 7% | 25% | |
| 85 | 9% | 18% | |
| 86 | 5% | 9% | |
| 87 | 2% | 4% | |
| 88 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 89 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 90 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 70 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 71 | 2% | 98% | |
| 72 | 4% | 96% | |
| 73 | 5% | 92% | |
| 74 | 7% | 87% | |
| 75 | 9% | 80% | |
| 76 | 10% | 70% | |
| 77 | 11% | 60% | Median |
| 78 | 9% | 49% | |
| 79 | 17% | 40% | |
| 80 | 8% | 24% | |
| 81 | 6% | 16% | |
| 82 | 3% | 10% | |
| 83 | 4% | 7% | |
| 84 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 85 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 67 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 68 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 69 | 2% | 97% | |
| 70 | 3% | 95% | |
| 71 | 4% | 92% | |
| 72 | 5% | 88% | |
| 73 | 13% | 82% | |
| 74 | 14% | 70% | |
| 75 | 12% | 55% | Median |
| 76 | 7% | 44% | |
| 77 | 8% | 37% | |
| 78 | 9% | 28% | |
| 79 | 10% | 19% | |
| 80 | 4% | 9% | |
| 81 | 2% | 5% | |
| 82 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98% | |
| 61 | 2% | 96% | |
| 62 | 5% | 94% | Last Result |
| 63 | 12% | 89% | |
| 64 | 11% | 77% | |
| 65 | 3% | 65% | |
| 66 | 12% | 62% | Median |
| 67 | 18% | 50% | |
| 68 | 7% | 31% | |
| 69 | 6% | 24% | |
| 70 | 8% | 18% | |
| 71 | 7% | 10% | |
| 72 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 73 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 43 | 1.5% | 98.7% | |
| 44 | 4% | 97% | |
| 45 | 4% | 93% | |
| 46 | 9% | 89% | |
| 47 | 10% | 80% | |
| 48 | 15% | 70% | |
| 49 | 12% | 55% | Median |
| 50 | 8% | 43% | |
| 51 | 8% | 35% | |
| 52 | 12% | 27% | Last Result |
| 53 | 8% | 15% | |
| 54 | 3% | 7% | |
| 55 | 2% | 3% | |
| 56 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Unique Research
- Commissioner(s): profil
- Fieldwork period: 10–14 December 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.94%