Opinion Poll by OGM for KURIER, 15–17 January 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 34.9% | 32.8–37.1% | 32.2–37.7% | 31.6–38.2% | 30.7–39.3% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 26.9% | 25.0–29.0% | 24.4–29.6% | 23.9–30.1% | 23.0–31.1% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 23.9% | 22.1–25.9% | 21.5–26.5% | 21.1–27.0% | 20.2–28.0% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.9–8.3% | 5.7–8.6% | 5.4–9.0% | 5.0–9.6% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.7–6.7% | 3.3–7.3% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.2% | 1.0–3.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 66 | 61–71 | 60–72 | 59–73 | 57–75 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 51 | 47–54 | 46–56 | 45–57 | 43–59 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 45 | 41–49 | 40–50 | 39–51 | 38–53 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 13 | 10–16 | 10–17 | 9–17 | 9–18 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 9 | 7–11 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 59 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 60 | 2% | 96% | |
| 61 | 5% | 93% | |
| 62 | 6% | 89% | Last Result |
| 63 | 8% | 82% | |
| 64 | 9% | 74% | |
| 65 | 10% | 65% | |
| 66 | 13% | 55% | Median |
| 67 | 9% | 42% | |
| 68 | 7% | 34% | |
| 69 | 8% | 26% | |
| 70 | 8% | 18% | |
| 71 | 4% | 10% | |
| 72 | 2% | 6% | |
| 73 | 2% | 4% | |
| 74 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 44 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 45 | 3% | 98% | |
| 46 | 5% | 95% | |
| 47 | 5% | 90% | |
| 48 | 10% | 85% | |
| 49 | 11% | 75% | |
| 50 | 12% | 64% | |
| 51 | 15% | 52% | Median |
| 52 | 12% | 37% | Last Result |
| 53 | 9% | 25% | |
| 54 | 7% | 16% | |
| 55 | 3% | 9% | |
| 56 | 2% | 5% | |
| 57 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 58 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 39 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 40 | 4% | 97% | |
| 41 | 4% | 93% | |
| 42 | 7% | 89% | |
| 43 | 15% | 82% | |
| 44 | 13% | 67% | |
| 45 | 9% | 54% | Median |
| 46 | 12% | 45% | |
| 47 | 13% | 32% | |
| 48 | 7% | 19% | |
| 49 | 6% | 13% | |
| 50 | 3% | 7% | |
| 51 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 52 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 9 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 10 | 12% | 96% | Last Result |
| 11 | 18% | 84% | |
| 12 | 14% | 66% | |
| 13 | 12% | 52% | Median |
| 14 | 11% | 41% | |
| 15 | 16% | 30% | |
| 16 | 8% | 14% | |
| 17 | 5% | 6% | |
| 18 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 91% | |
| 2 | 0% | 91% | |
| 3 | 0% | 91% | |
| 4 | 0% | 91% | |
| 5 | 0% | 91% | |
| 6 | 0% | 91% | |
| 7 | 5% | 91% | |
| 8 | 20% | 87% | |
| 9 | 28% | 67% | Median |
| 10 | 21% | 38% | |
| 11 | 11% | 17% | |
| 12 | 5% | 7% | |
| 13 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 14 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 116 | 100% | 112–121 | 110–123 | 109–124 | 107–127 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 111 | 100% | 106–116 | 105–118 | 103–119 | 102–122 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 96 | 87% | 91–100 | 90–102 | 89–103 | 87–106 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 66 | 0% | 61–71 | 60–72 | 59–73 | 57–75 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 51 | 0% | 47–54 | 46–56 | 45–57 | 43–59 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 108 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 109 | 1.4% | 98.7% | |
| 110 | 3% | 97% | |
| 111 | 4% | 95% | |
| 112 | 6% | 91% | |
| 113 | 7% | 85% | |
| 114 | 8% | 78% | Last Result |
| 115 | 13% | 70% | |
| 116 | 9% | 58% | |
| 117 | 10% | 48% | Median |
| 118 | 8% | 39% | |
| 119 | 9% | 31% | |
| 120 | 7% | 21% | |
| 121 | 4% | 14% | |
| 122 | 3% | 10% | |
| 123 | 3% | 6% | |
| 124 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 125 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 126 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 127 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 102 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 103 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 104 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 105 | 5% | 96% | |
| 106 | 5% | 91% | |
| 107 | 6% | 86% | |
| 108 | 9% | 80% | |
| 109 | 8% | 71% | |
| 110 | 11% | 64% | |
| 111 | 8% | 53% | Median |
| 112 | 7% | 45% | |
| 113 | 12% | 37% | Last Result |
| 114 | 6% | 25% | |
| 115 | 6% | 19% | |
| 116 | 5% | 14% | |
| 117 | 3% | 9% | |
| 118 | 2% | 6% | |
| 119 | 2% | 4% | |
| 120 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 121 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 122 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 123 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 87 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 88 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 89 | 2% | 98% | |
| 90 | 4% | 96% | |
| 91 | 5% | 92% | |
| 92 | 7% | 87% | Majority |
| 93 | 10% | 80% | |
| 94 | 7% | 70% | |
| 95 | 12% | 62% | |
| 96 | 11% | 51% | Median |
| 97 | 14% | 40% | |
| 98 | 6% | 26% | |
| 99 | 6% | 20% | |
| 100 | 4% | 14% | |
| 101 | 4% | 10% | |
| 102 | 3% | 6% | |
| 103 | 0.9% | 3% | Last Result |
| 104 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 105 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 106 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 59 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 60 | 2% | 96% | |
| 61 | 5% | 93% | |
| 62 | 6% | 89% | Last Result |
| 63 | 8% | 82% | |
| 64 | 9% | 74% | |
| 65 | 10% | 65% | |
| 66 | 13% | 55% | Median |
| 67 | 9% | 42% | |
| 68 | 7% | 34% | |
| 69 | 8% | 26% | |
| 70 | 8% | 18% | |
| 71 | 4% | 10% | |
| 72 | 2% | 6% | |
| 73 | 2% | 4% | |
| 74 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 44 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 45 | 3% | 98% | |
| 46 | 5% | 95% | |
| 47 | 5% | 90% | |
| 48 | 10% | 85% | |
| 49 | 11% | 75% | |
| 50 | 12% | 64% | |
| 51 | 15% | 52% | Median |
| 52 | 12% | 37% | Last Result |
| 53 | 9% | 25% | |
| 54 | 7% | 16% | |
| 55 | 3% | 9% | |
| 56 | 2% | 5% | |
| 57 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 58 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: OGM
- Commissioner(s): KURIER
- Fieldwork period: 15–17 January 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 803
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 2.33%