Opinion Poll by Research Affairs for ÖSTERREICH, 17–23 January 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 34.0% | 32.1–36.0% | 31.6–36.5% | 31.2–37.0% | 30.3–38.0% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 26.0% | 24.3–27.9% | 23.8–28.4% | 23.4–28.9% | 22.6–29.8% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 23.0% | 21.3–24.7% | 20.9–25.2% | 20.5–25.7% | 19.7–26.5% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.1% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.7% | 5.1–9.3% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.2% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 65 | 61–69 | 60–70 | 60–71 | 58–72 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 50 | 46–53 | 46–54 | 45–55 | 43–57 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 44 | 41–47 | 40–48 | 39–49 | 37–51 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 13 | 11–15 | 11–16 | 10–16 | 9–18 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 11 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 8–14 | 8–15 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 59 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 60 | 3% | 98% | |
| 61 | 5% | 95% | |
| 62 | 8% | 90% | Last Result |
| 63 | 8% | 81% | |
| 64 | 15% | 73% | |
| 65 | 14% | 58% | Median |
| 66 | 9% | 43% | |
| 67 | 14% | 35% | |
| 68 | 8% | 20% | |
| 69 | 5% | 12% | |
| 70 | 3% | 6% | |
| 71 | 2% | 4% | |
| 72 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 45 | 2% | 98% | |
| 46 | 7% | 95% | |
| 47 | 6% | 89% | |
| 48 | 14% | 82% | |
| 49 | 17% | 68% | |
| 50 | 9% | 51% | Median |
| 51 | 19% | 42% | |
| 52 | 7% | 23% | Last Result |
| 53 | 7% | 16% | |
| 54 | 5% | 9% | |
| 55 | 2% | 4% | |
| 56 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 39 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 40 | 6% | 96% | |
| 41 | 8% | 90% | |
| 42 | 10% | 82% | |
| 43 | 18% | 72% | |
| 44 | 18% | 53% | Median |
| 45 | 12% | 36% | |
| 46 | 10% | 24% | |
| 47 | 7% | 14% | |
| 48 | 4% | 7% | |
| 49 | 2% | 4% | |
| 50 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 3% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 11 | 12% | 97% | |
| 12 | 14% | 84% | |
| 13 | 35% | 70% | Median |
| 14 | 15% | 36% | |
| 15 | 14% | 20% | |
| 16 | 5% | 6% | |
| 17 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 9% | 97% | |
| 10 | 22% | 89% | |
| 11 | 27% | 67% | Median |
| 12 | 22% | 39% | |
| 13 | 10% | 17% | |
| 14 | 5% | 7% | |
| 15 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 115 | 100% | 111–118 | 110–120 | 109–121 | 107–122 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 109 | 100% | 105–113 | 104–114 | 103–115 | 101–117 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 94 | 76% | 90–97 | 89–99 | 88–100 | 86–101 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 65 | 0% | 61–69 | 60–70 | 60–71 | 58–72 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 50 | 0% | 46–53 | 46–54 | 45–55 | 43–57 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 108 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 109 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 110 | 4% | 97% | |
| 111 | 6% | 94% | |
| 112 | 11% | 88% | |
| 113 | 6% | 77% | |
| 114 | 14% | 71% | Last Result |
| 115 | 14% | 57% | Median |
| 116 | 17% | 43% | |
| 117 | 7% | 27% | |
| 118 | 10% | 20% | |
| 119 | 4% | 10% | |
| 120 | 3% | 6% | |
| 121 | 2% | 3% | |
| 122 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 102 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 103 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 104 | 3% | 96% | |
| 105 | 7% | 94% | |
| 106 | 9% | 87% | |
| 107 | 7% | 78% | |
| 108 | 19% | 71% | |
| 109 | 11% | 53% | Median |
| 110 | 8% | 42% | |
| 111 | 17% | 34% | |
| 112 | 6% | 17% | |
| 113 | 4% | 10% | Last Result |
| 114 | 4% | 7% | |
| 115 | 2% | 3% | |
| 116 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 117 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 87 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 88 | 2% | 98% | |
| 89 | 5% | 96% | |
| 90 | 8% | 91% | |
| 91 | 8% | 84% | |
| 92 | 13% | 76% | Majority |
| 93 | 12% | 63% | |
| 94 | 13% | 51% | Median |
| 95 | 14% | 38% | |
| 96 | 8% | 24% | |
| 97 | 7% | 16% | |
| 98 | 3% | 9% | |
| 99 | 3% | 5% | |
| 100 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 101 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 104 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 59 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 60 | 3% | 98% | |
| 61 | 5% | 95% | |
| 62 | 8% | 90% | Last Result |
| 63 | 8% | 81% | |
| 64 | 15% | 73% | |
| 65 | 14% | 58% | Median |
| 66 | 9% | 43% | |
| 67 | 14% | 35% | |
| 68 | 8% | 20% | |
| 69 | 5% | 12% | |
| 70 | 3% | 6% | |
| 71 | 2% | 4% | |
| 72 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 45 | 2% | 98% | |
| 46 | 7% | 95% | |
| 47 | 6% | 89% | |
| 48 | 14% | 82% | |
| 49 | 17% | 68% | |
| 50 | 9% | 51% | Median |
| 51 | 19% | 42% | |
| 52 | 7% | 23% | Last Result |
| 53 | 7% | 16% | |
| 54 | 5% | 9% | |
| 55 | 2% | 4% | |
| 56 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Research Affairs
- Commissioner(s): ÖSTERREICH
- Fieldwork period: 17–23 January 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1002
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.82%