Opinion Poll by Demox Research for Die Presse, 5–8 February 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 34.0% | 32.1–36.0% | 31.6–36.5% | 31.1–37.0% | 30.2–38.0% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 27.0% | 25.3–28.9% | 24.8–29.4% | 24.3–29.8% | 23.5–30.7% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 22.0% | 20.4–23.7% | 19.9–24.2% | 19.5–24.7% | 18.8–25.5% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 8.5% | 7.5–9.7% | 7.2–10.1% | 6.9–10.4% | 6.4–11.0% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.7–2.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 64 | 61–69 | 60–70 | 59–71 | 57–73 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 52 | 48–55 | 47–56 | 46–57 | 45–59 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 42 | 39–45 | 38–46 | 37–47 | 35–49 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 16 | 14–18 | 13–19 | 13–19 | 12–20 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 9 | 8–11 | 7–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 59 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 60 | 4% | 97% | |
| 61 | 8% | 93% | |
| 62 | 9% | 85% | Last Result |
| 63 | 13% | 76% | |
| 64 | 13% | 63% | Median |
| 65 | 9% | 49% | |
| 66 | 15% | 40% | |
| 67 | 9% | 25% | |
| 68 | 5% | 16% | |
| 69 | 5% | 11% | |
| 70 | 3% | 6% | |
| 71 | 2% | 3% | |
| 72 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 46 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 47 | 4% | 96% | |
| 48 | 4% | 92% | |
| 49 | 16% | 88% | |
| 50 | 9% | 73% | |
| 51 | 11% | 63% | |
| 52 | 17% | 53% | Last Result, Median |
| 53 | 15% | 36% | |
| 54 | 6% | 21% | |
| 55 | 8% | 15% | |
| 56 | 4% | 7% | |
| 57 | 2% | 3% | |
| 58 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 37 | 2% | 98% | |
| 38 | 5% | 96% | |
| 39 | 8% | 91% | |
| 40 | 13% | 83% | |
| 41 | 16% | 70% | |
| 42 | 16% | 54% | Median |
| 43 | 11% | 38% | |
| 44 | 11% | 27% | |
| 45 | 8% | 16% | |
| 46 | 5% | 8% | |
| 47 | 2% | 4% | |
| 48 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 13 | 5% | 98.6% | |
| 14 | 13% | 94% | |
| 15 | 18% | 82% | |
| 16 | 22% | 63% | Median |
| 17 | 22% | 42% | |
| 18 | 13% | 20% | |
| 19 | 5% | 7% | |
| 20 | 2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 95% | |
| 2 | 0% | 95% | |
| 3 | 0% | 95% | |
| 4 | 0% | 95% | |
| 5 | 0% | 95% | |
| 6 | 0% | 95% | |
| 7 | 4% | 95% | |
| 8 | 22% | 91% | |
| 9 | 31% | 70% | Median |
| 10 | 21% | 38% | |
| 11 | 12% | 17% | |
| 12 | 4% | 6% | |
| 13 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 116 | 100% | 112–120 | 111–122 | 110–123 | 108–126 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 106 | 100% | 103–111 | 102–112 | 100–113 | 99–117 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 93 | 72% | 89–97 | 88–99 | 87–100 | 85–102 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 72 | 90 | 28% | 86–94 | 84–95 | 83–96 | 81–98 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 81 | 0.1% | 77–85 | 76–86 | 75–87 | 73–90 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 77 | 0% | 72–80 | 71–81 | 70–83 | 66–84 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 74 | 0% | 70–77 | 68–79 | 67–80 | 64–82 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 64 | 0% | 61–69 | 60–70 | 59–71 | 57–73 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 52 | 0% | 48–55 | 47–56 | 46–57 | 45–59 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 107 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 109 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 110 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 111 | 3% | 97% | |
| 112 | 6% | 94% | |
| 113 | 7% | 88% | |
| 114 | 14% | 81% | Last Result |
| 115 | 12% | 67% | |
| 116 | 10% | 56% | Median |
| 117 | 14% | 45% | |
| 118 | 9% | 31% | |
| 119 | 8% | 22% | |
| 120 | 6% | 14% | |
| 121 | 3% | 8% | |
| 122 | 2% | 5% | |
| 123 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 124 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 125 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 126 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 100 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 101 | 2% | 97% | |
| 102 | 5% | 95% | |
| 103 | 9% | 90% | |
| 104 | 11% | 81% | |
| 105 | 5% | 70% | |
| 106 | 15% | 65% | Median |
| 107 | 14% | 50% | |
| 108 | 10% | 36% | |
| 109 | 8% | 25% | |
| 110 | 6% | 17% | |
| 111 | 5% | 11% | |
| 112 | 2% | 6% | |
| 113 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 114 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 117 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 86 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 87 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 88 | 2% | 96% | |
| 89 | 4% | 94% | |
| 90 | 6% | 90% | |
| 91 | 12% | 83% | |
| 92 | 12% | 72% | Majority |
| 93 | 11% | 60% | |
| 94 | 16% | 49% | Median |
| 95 | 8% | 34% | |
| 96 | 9% | 26% | |
| 97 | 7% | 16% | |
| 98 | 4% | 9% | |
| 99 | 2% | 5% | |
| 100 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 101 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 104 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 82 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 83 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 84 | 2% | 97% | |
| 85 | 4% | 95% | |
| 86 | 7% | 91% | |
| 87 | 9% | 84% | |
| 88 | 8% | 74% | |
| 89 | 16% | 66% | Median |
| 90 | 11% | 51% | |
| 91 | 12% | 40% | |
| 92 | 12% | 28% | Majority |
| 93 | 6% | 17% | |
| 94 | 4% | 10% | |
| 95 | 2% | 6% | |
| 96 | 3% | 4% | |
| 97 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 98 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 75 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 76 | 4% | 96% | |
| 77 | 7% | 92% | |
| 78 | 11% | 85% | |
| 79 | 9% | 74% | |
| 80 | 10% | 65% | Median |
| 81 | 16% | 54% | |
| 82 | 11% | 38% | |
| 83 | 9% | 27% | |
| 84 | 7% | 18% | |
| 85 | 5% | 12% | |
| 86 | 4% | 7% | |
| 87 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 88 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 89 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 69 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 70 | 2% | 98% | |
| 71 | 2% | 96% | |
| 72 | 5% | 94% | |
| 73 | 6% | 89% | |
| 74 | 8% | 83% | |
| 75 | 10% | 75% | |
| 76 | 14% | 64% | |
| 77 | 15% | 50% | Median |
| 78 | 5% | 35% | |
| 79 | 11% | 30% | |
| 80 | 9% | 19% | |
| 81 | 5% | 10% | |
| 82 | 2% | 5% | |
| 83 | 2% | 3% | |
| 84 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 66 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 67 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 68 | 2% | 97% | |
| 69 | 4% | 95% | |
| 70 | 6% | 91% | |
| 71 | 11% | 85% | |
| 72 | 12% | 74% | |
| 73 | 9% | 62% | Median |
| 74 | 14% | 53% | |
| 75 | 12% | 39% | |
| 76 | 11% | 27% | |
| 77 | 6% | 15% | |
| 78 | 3% | 10% | |
| 79 | 4% | 7% | |
| 80 | 2% | 3% | |
| 81 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 59 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 60 | 4% | 97% | |
| 61 | 8% | 93% | |
| 62 | 9% | 85% | Last Result |
| 63 | 13% | 76% | |
| 64 | 13% | 63% | Median |
| 65 | 9% | 49% | |
| 66 | 15% | 40% | |
| 67 | 9% | 25% | |
| 68 | 5% | 16% | |
| 69 | 5% | 11% | |
| 70 | 3% | 6% | |
| 71 | 2% | 3% | |
| 72 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 46 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 47 | 4% | 96% | |
| 48 | 4% | 92% | |
| 49 | 16% | 88% | |
| 50 | 9% | 73% | |
| 51 | 11% | 63% | |
| 52 | 17% | 53% | Last Result, Median |
| 53 | 15% | 36% | |
| 54 | 6% | 21% | |
| 55 | 8% | 15% | |
| 56 | 4% | 7% | |
| 57 | 2% | 3% | |
| 58 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Demox Research
- Commissioner(s): Die Presse
- Fieldwork period: 5–8 February 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.25%