Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 18–20 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 31.5% 33.7% 31.6–35.8% 31.0–36.5% 30.5–37.0% 29.5–38.0%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 26.9% 24.8% 22.9–26.8% 22.4–27.4% 21.9–27.9% 21.1–28.9%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 26.0% 20.8% 19.1–22.8% 18.6–23.3% 18.2–23.8% 17.4–24.7%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 5.3% 10.9% 9.6–12.4% 9.2–12.8% 8.9–13.2% 8.3–13.9%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 3.8% 7.9% 6.8–9.2% 6.5–9.6% 6.2–10.0% 5.7–10.6%
JETZT–Liste Pilz 4.4% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 1.0–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 63 59–67 58–68 57–69 55–71
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 46 43–50 42–51 41–52 39–54
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 51 39 36–42 35–43 34–44 32–46
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 10 20 18–23 17–23 16–24 15–26
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 0 15 12–17 12–18 11–18 10–19
JETZT–Liste Pilz 8 0 0 0 0 0

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.5% 99.7%  
56 0.8% 99.3%  
57 2% 98%  
58 3% 97%  
59 8% 93%  
60 8% 86%  
61 10% 77%  
62 10% 68% Last Result
63 13% 57% Median
64 10% 45%  
65 13% 34%  
66 9% 21%  
67 5% 12%  
68 3% 8%  
69 2% 4%  
70 1.3% 2%  
71 0.6% 0.9%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.5% 99.8%  
40 1.0% 99.3%  
41 2% 98%  
42 5% 96%  
43 7% 91%  
44 12% 84%  
45 12% 72%  
46 16% 61% Median
47 12% 44%  
48 11% 33%  
49 7% 22%  
50 7% 14%  
51 4% 7%  
52 2% 3% Last Result
53 0.9% 2%  
54 0.4% 0.7%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.8%  
33 1.3% 99.4%  
34 3% 98%  
35 5% 95%  
36 9% 90%  
37 13% 81%  
38 16% 69%  
39 13% 52% Median
40 14% 40%  
41 9% 26%  
42 8% 17%  
43 5% 9%  
44 2% 4%  
45 1.4% 2%  
46 0.5% 0.8%  
47 0.3% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Last Result

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.2% 100%  
15 0.7% 99.8%  
16 3% 99.1%  
17 6% 96%  
18 9% 91%  
19 16% 82%  
20 19% 66% Median
21 20% 46%  
22 14% 26%  
23 7% 12%  
24 3% 5%  
25 1.1% 2%  
26 0.4% 0.6%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.5% 99.9%  
11 3% 99.4%  
12 7% 96%  
13 16% 89%  
14 23% 73%  
15 19% 50% Median
16 17% 31%  
17 8% 14%  
18 4% 6%  
19 1.4% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

JETZT–Liste Pilz

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 114 109 100% 105–113 104–114 103–116 101–117
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 113 102 99.9% 98–106 96–107 95–108 94–110
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 72 98 97% 94–102 92–103 91–104 89–106
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 103 85 3% 81–89 80–91 79–92 77–94
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 83 0.5% 79–87 78–89 77–90 75–91
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 81 0.1% 77–85 76–87 75–88 73–89
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 78 0% 73–82 72–83 71–84 69–86
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 63 0% 59–67 58–68 57–69 55–71
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 52 61 0% 57–65 56–66 55–67 53–69
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 46 0% 43–50 42–51 41–52 39–54

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.2% 99.9%  
101 0.4% 99.7%  
102 0.9% 99.3%  
103 2% 98%  
104 2% 96%  
105 5% 94%  
106 11% 90%  
107 8% 79%  
108 11% 71%  
109 12% 60% Median
110 12% 48%  
111 13% 36%  
112 6% 23%  
113 7% 17%  
114 5% 10% Last Result
115 2% 4%  
116 2% 3%  
117 0.7% 1.2%  
118 0.3% 0.4%  
119 0.1% 0.2%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9% Majority
93 0.3% 99.8%  
94 0.6% 99.5%  
95 2% 98.9%  
96 2% 97%  
97 4% 95%  
98 6% 91%  
99 8% 84%  
100 9% 76%  
101 11% 67%  
102 14% 56% Median
103 12% 42%  
104 9% 30%  
105 7% 21%  
106 5% 13%  
107 3% 8%  
108 2% 4%  
109 1.2% 2%  
110 0.5% 0.8%  
111 0.2% 0.4%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0.1% Last Result
114 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.2% 99.9%  
89 0.3% 99.7%  
90 0.6% 99.4%  
91 2% 98.7%  
92 3% 97% Majority
93 4% 94%  
94 5% 90%  
95 8% 86%  
96 10% 77%  
97 12% 67%  
98 12% 55% Median
99 10% 43%  
100 13% 33%  
101 6% 20%  
102 6% 14%  
103 4% 8%  
104 2% 4%  
105 0.9% 2%  
106 0.4% 0.8%  
107 0.2% 0.4%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.3% 99.9%  
77 0.4% 99.6%  
78 0.9% 99.2%  
79 2% 98%  
80 4% 96%  
81 6% 92%  
82 6% 86%  
83 13% 80%  
84 10% 67%  
85 12% 57% Median
86 12% 45%  
87 10% 33%  
88 8% 23%  
89 5% 14%  
90 4% 10%  
91 3% 6%  
92 2% 3% Majority
93 0.6% 1.3%  
94 0.3% 0.6%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.5% 99.6%  
76 1.1% 99.0%  
77 2% 98%  
78 4% 96%  
79 4% 92%  
80 6% 87%  
81 9% 81%  
82 12% 72%  
83 12% 60% Median
84 11% 47%  
85 11% 37%  
86 10% 26%  
87 6% 15%  
88 4% 9%  
89 3% 6%  
90 1.1% 3%  
91 0.9% 1.4%  
92 0.3% 0.5% Majority
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.9%  
73 0.5% 99.6%  
74 1.2% 99.2%  
75 2% 98%  
76 3% 96%  
77 5% 92%  
78 7% 87%  
79 9% 79%  
80 12% 70%  
81 14% 58% Median
82 11% 44%  
83 9% 33%  
84 8% 24%  
85 6% 16%  
86 4% 9%  
87 2% 5%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.6% 1.1%  
90 0.3% 0.5%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1% Majority
93 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.4% 99.8%  
70 0.7% 99.4%  
71 1.4% 98.7%  
72 3% 97%  
73 6% 94%  
74 7% 88%  
75 6% 82%  
76 13% 76%  
77 12% 63%  
78 12% 51% Median
79 11% 39%  
80 7% 28%  
81 9% 21%  
82 4% 11%  
83 4% 7%  
84 2% 4%  
85 0.9% 2%  
86 0.4% 0.8%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.5% 99.7%  
56 0.8% 99.3%  
57 2% 98%  
58 3% 97%  
59 8% 93%  
60 8% 86%  
61 10% 77%  
62 10% 68% Last Result
63 13% 57% Median
64 10% 45%  
65 13% 34%  
66 9% 21%  
67 5% 12%  
68 3% 8%  
69 2% 4%  
70 1.3% 2%  
71 0.6% 0.9%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
53 0.5% 99.7%  
54 1.0% 99.2%  
55 2% 98%  
56 4% 96%  
57 7% 92%  
58 6% 85%  
59 12% 79%  
60 11% 67%  
61 14% 56% Median
62 12% 41%  
63 9% 29%  
64 8% 20%  
65 5% 12%  
66 4% 7%  
67 2% 4%  
68 0.8% 2%  
69 0.4% 0.7%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.5% 99.8%  
40 1.0% 99.3%  
41 2% 98%  
42 5% 96%  
43 7% 91%  
44 12% 84%  
45 12% 72%  
46 16% 61% Median
47 12% 44%  
48 11% 33%  
49 7% 22%  
50 7% 14%  
51 4% 7%  
52 2% 3% Last Result
53 0.9% 2%  
54 0.4% 0.7%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations