Opinion Poll by Peter Hajek for ATV, 21–28 February 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 34.0% | 31.9–36.2% | 31.3–36.8% | 30.8–37.4% | 29.8–38.4% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 27.0% | 25.1–29.1% | 24.5–29.7% | 24.0–30.2% | 23.1–31.2% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 23.0% | 21.2–25.0% | 20.7–25.6% | 20.2–26.0% | 19.4–27.0% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 8.0% | 6.9–9.4% | 6.6–9.8% | 6.3–10.1% | 5.8–10.8% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.0–7.2% | 4.8–7.6% | 4.6–7.9% | 4.1–8.5% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% | 0.4–2.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 64 | 60–68 | 58–69 | 58–70 | 56–72 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 50 | 47–54 | 46–55 | 45–57 | 44–59 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 43 | 39–47 | 39–48 | 37–49 | 36–51 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 15 | 12–17 | 12–18 | 11–19 | 11–20 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 11 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 8–14 | 7–16 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 58 | 3% | 98% | |
| 59 | 4% | 95% | |
| 60 | 5% | 90% | |
| 61 | 7% | 85% | |
| 62 | 15% | 78% | Last Result |
| 63 | 13% | 63% | |
| 64 | 9% | 50% | Median |
| 65 | 12% | 41% | |
| 66 | 6% | 29% | |
| 67 | 10% | 22% | |
| 68 | 5% | 12% | |
| 69 | 4% | 7% | |
| 70 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 71 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 72 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 45 | 2% | 98% | |
| 46 | 6% | 96% | |
| 47 | 4% | 90% | |
| 48 | 7% | 87% | |
| 49 | 24% | 80% | |
| 50 | 8% | 55% | Median |
| 51 | 9% | 48% | |
| 52 | 11% | 38% | Last Result |
| 53 | 11% | 28% | |
| 54 | 9% | 17% | |
| 55 | 2% | 7% | |
| 56 | 2% | 5% | |
| 57 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 58 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 37 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 38 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 39 | 7% | 95% | |
| 40 | 6% | 88% | |
| 41 | 12% | 83% | |
| 42 | 11% | 70% | |
| 43 | 19% | 59% | Median |
| 44 | 8% | 39% | |
| 45 | 14% | 31% | |
| 46 | 4% | 17% | |
| 47 | 7% | 13% | |
| 48 | 3% | 6% | |
| 49 | 2% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 11 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 12 | 8% | 97% | |
| 13 | 14% | 89% | |
| 14 | 19% | 75% | |
| 15 | 24% | 57% | Median |
| 16 | 17% | 33% | |
| 17 | 9% | 16% | |
| 18 | 4% | 6% | |
| 19 | 2% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 8 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 9 | 13% | 97% | |
| 10 | 34% | 84% | |
| 11 | 15% | 51% | Median |
| 12 | 14% | 36% | |
| 13 | 17% | 22% | |
| 14 | 4% | 5% | |
| 15 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 114 | 100% | 110–119 | 109–119 | 108–120 | 106–123 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 106 | 100% | 103–111 | 101–112 | 100–113 | 99–115 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 94 | 72% | 89–98 | 88–99 | 87–100 | 85–102 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 64 | 0% | 60–68 | 58–69 | 58–70 | 56–72 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 50 | 0% | 47–54 | 46–55 | 45–57 | 44–59 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 104 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 106 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 107 | 1.3% | 99.2% | |
| 108 | 2% | 98% | |
| 109 | 4% | 96% | |
| 110 | 4% | 92% | |
| 111 | 6% | 88% | |
| 112 | 11% | 81% | |
| 113 | 12% | 70% | |
| 114 | 11% | 58% | Last Result, Median |
| 115 | 10% | 47% | |
| 116 | 12% | 37% | |
| 117 | 7% | 24% | |
| 118 | 7% | 17% | |
| 119 | 6% | 10% | |
| 120 | 2% | 5% | |
| 121 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 122 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 123 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 99 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 100 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 101 | 2% | 96% | |
| 102 | 3% | 94% | |
| 103 | 8% | 91% | |
| 104 | 6% | 83% | |
| 105 | 8% | 76% | |
| 106 | 21% | 68% | |
| 107 | 6% | 48% | Median |
| 108 | 6% | 41% | |
| 109 | 15% | 36% | |
| 110 | 9% | 20% | |
| 111 | 4% | 11% | |
| 112 | 4% | 7% | |
| 113 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 114 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 86 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 87 | 2% | 98% | |
| 88 | 3% | 97% | |
| 89 | 6% | 94% | |
| 90 | 5% | 88% | |
| 91 | 10% | 82% | |
| 92 | 13% | 72% | Majority |
| 93 | 7% | 59% | Median |
| 94 | 13% | 52% | |
| 95 | 9% | 38% | |
| 96 | 11% | 30% | |
| 97 | 6% | 19% | |
| 98 | 6% | 13% | |
| 99 | 3% | 7% | |
| 100 | 2% | 4% | |
| 101 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 102 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 104 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 58 | 3% | 98% | |
| 59 | 4% | 95% | |
| 60 | 5% | 90% | |
| 61 | 7% | 85% | |
| 62 | 15% | 78% | Last Result |
| 63 | 13% | 63% | |
| 64 | 9% | 50% | Median |
| 65 | 12% | 41% | |
| 66 | 6% | 29% | |
| 67 | 10% | 22% | |
| 68 | 5% | 12% | |
| 69 | 4% | 7% | |
| 70 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 71 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 72 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 45 | 2% | 98% | |
| 46 | 6% | 96% | |
| 47 | 4% | 90% | |
| 48 | 7% | 87% | |
| 49 | 24% | 80% | |
| 50 | 8% | 55% | Median |
| 51 | 9% | 48% | |
| 52 | 11% | 38% | Last Result |
| 53 | 11% | 28% | |
| 54 | 9% | 17% | |
| 55 | 2% | 7% | |
| 56 | 2% | 5% | |
| 57 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 58 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Peter Hajek
- Commissioner(s): ATV
- Fieldwork period: 21–28 February 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.84%