Opinion Poll by INSA for SWG, 27 February–1 March 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 29.0% | 27.2–30.9% | 26.7–31.4% | 26.3–31.9% | 25.4–32.8% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 25.0% | 23.3–26.8% | 22.8–27.3% | 22.4–27.8% | 21.6–28.7% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 24.0% | 22.3–25.8% | 21.9–26.3% | 21.4–26.7% | 20.7–27.6% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 9.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.6–10.6% | 7.4–10.9% | 6.9–11.6% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 56 | 52–60 | 51–61 | 50–62 | 49–63 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 48 | 45–52 | 44–53 | 43–54 | 41–55 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 46 | 43–50 | 42–51 | 41–51 | 40–53 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 17 | 15–19 | 14–20 | 14–21 | 13–22 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 15 | 13–17 | 13–18 | 12–19 | 11–20 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 50 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 51 | 3% | 97% | |
| 52 | 5% | 94% | |
| 53 | 7% | 90% | |
| 54 | 13% | 82% | |
| 55 | 17% | 69% | |
| 56 | 13% | 52% | Median |
| 57 | 12% | 40% | |
| 58 | 10% | 28% | |
| 59 | 8% | 18% | |
| 60 | 4% | 10% | |
| 61 | 3% | 6% | |
| 62 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 43 | 2% | 98% | |
| 44 | 5% | 96% | |
| 45 | 8% | 92% | |
| 46 | 10% | 84% | |
| 47 | 13% | 73% | |
| 48 | 16% | 60% | Median |
| 49 | 14% | 44% | |
| 50 | 11% | 30% | |
| 51 | 9% | 19% | |
| 52 | 5% | 11% | Last Result |
| 53 | 3% | 5% | |
| 54 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 41 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 42 | 4% | 96% | |
| 43 | 8% | 92% | |
| 44 | 11% | 85% | |
| 45 | 13% | 73% | |
| 46 | 15% | 60% | Median |
| 47 | 15% | 45% | |
| 48 | 11% | 30% | |
| 49 | 8% | 19% | |
| 50 | 5% | 11% | |
| 51 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 52 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 53 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 5% | 98.5% | |
| 15 | 11% | 94% | |
| 16 | 19% | 82% | |
| 17 | 22% | 63% | Median |
| 18 | 19% | 41% | |
| 19 | 12% | 22% | |
| 20 | 6% | 9% | |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 4% | 99.1% | |
| 13 | 11% | 95% | |
| 14 | 19% | 84% | |
| 15 | 22% | 66% | Median |
| 16 | 22% | 44% | |
| 17 | 13% | 21% | |
| 18 | 6% | 8% | |
| 19 | 2% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 104 | 100% | 100–108 | 99–109 | 98–110 | 96–112 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 102 | 99.9% | 98–106 | 97–107 | 96–108 | 94–110 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 94 | 82% | 90–98 | 89–99 | 88–100 | 86–102 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 56 | 0% | 52–60 | 51–61 | 50–62 | 49–63 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 48 | 0% | 45–52 | 44–53 | 43–54 | 41–55 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 97 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 98 | 2% | 98% | |
| 99 | 3% | 96% | |
| 100 | 5% | 93% | |
| 101 | 8% | 87% | |
| 102 | 10% | 80% | |
| 103 | 12% | 70% | |
| 104 | 13% | 58% | Median |
| 105 | 12% | 45% | |
| 106 | 11% | 32% | |
| 107 | 8% | 22% | |
| 108 | 6% | 13% | |
| 109 | 4% | 7% | |
| 110 | 2% | 4% | |
| 111 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 112 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 115 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 94 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 95 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 96 | 2% | 98% | |
| 97 | 3% | 96% | |
| 98 | 5% | 93% | |
| 99 | 7% | 88% | |
| 100 | 10% | 81% | |
| 101 | 14% | 71% | |
| 102 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 103 | 12% | 44% | |
| 104 | 10% | 32% | |
| 105 | 8% | 22% | |
| 106 | 6% | 14% | |
| 107 | 4% | 8% | |
| 108 | 2% | 4% | |
| 109 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 110 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 87 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 88 | 2% | 98% | |
| 89 | 3% | 97% | |
| 90 | 5% | 94% | |
| 91 | 7% | 89% | |
| 92 | 9% | 82% | Majority |
| 93 | 12% | 73% | |
| 94 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 95 | 14% | 49% | |
| 96 | 11% | 35% | |
| 97 | 8% | 24% | |
| 98 | 7% | 16% | |
| 99 | 4% | 9% | |
| 100 | 3% | 5% | |
| 101 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 102 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 104 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 50 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 51 | 3% | 97% | |
| 52 | 5% | 94% | |
| 53 | 7% | 90% | |
| 54 | 13% | 82% | |
| 55 | 17% | 69% | |
| 56 | 13% | 52% | Median |
| 57 | 12% | 40% | |
| 58 | 10% | 28% | |
| 59 | 8% | 18% | |
| 60 | 4% | 10% | |
| 61 | 3% | 6% | |
| 62 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 43 | 2% | 98% | |
| 44 | 5% | 96% | |
| 45 | 8% | 92% | |
| 46 | 10% | 84% | |
| 47 | 13% | 73% | |
| 48 | 16% | 60% | Median |
| 49 | 14% | 44% | |
| 50 | 11% | 30% | |
| 51 | 9% | 19% | |
| 52 | 5% | 11% | Last Result |
| 53 | 3% | 5% | |
| 54 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA
- Commissioner(s): SWG
- Fieldwork period: 27 February–1 March 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.96%