Opinion Poll by Unique Research for Heute, 4–7 March 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 33.0% | 30.9–35.2% | 30.3–35.8% | 29.8–36.3% | 28.8–37.4% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 27.0% | 25.1–29.1% | 24.5–29.7% | 24.0–30.2% | 23.1–31.2% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 24.0% | 22.1–26.0% | 21.6–26.6% | 21.2–27.1% | 20.3–28.1% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.0–8.3% | 5.7–8.7% | 5.4–9.0% | 5.0–9.6% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.0–7.2% | 4.8–7.6% | 4.6–7.9% | 4.1–8.5% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.2–3.2% | 1.0–3.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 62 | 59–66 | 58–67 | 57–68 | 55–70 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 51 | 47–54 | 46–56 | 46–57 | 44–59 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 46 | 43–49 | 42–50 | 41–50 | 39–52 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 13 | 11–15 | 10–16 | 10–17 | 9–18 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 11 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 8–14 | 8–15 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 57 | 3% | 98% | |
| 58 | 5% | 95% | |
| 59 | 7% | 90% | |
| 60 | 10% | 83% | |
| 61 | 17% | 73% | |
| 62 | 12% | 56% | Last Result, Median |
| 63 | 13% | 44% | |
| 64 | 12% | 31% | |
| 65 | 7% | 19% | |
| 66 | 6% | 12% | |
| 67 | 3% | 6% | |
| 68 | 2% | 3% | |
| 69 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 45 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 46 | 3% | 98% | |
| 47 | 7% | 94% | |
| 48 | 8% | 88% | |
| 49 | 10% | 80% | |
| 50 | 14% | 69% | |
| 51 | 17% | 55% | Median |
| 52 | 13% | 37% | Last Result |
| 53 | 9% | 24% | |
| 54 | 6% | 15% | |
| 55 | 4% | 9% | |
| 56 | 2% | 5% | |
| 57 | 2% | 3% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 40 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 41 | 2% | 98% | |
| 42 | 3% | 96% | |
| 43 | 9% | 92% | |
| 44 | 13% | 83% | |
| 45 | 12% | 69% | |
| 46 | 17% | 58% | Median |
| 47 | 21% | 40% | |
| 48 | 6% | 20% | |
| 49 | 8% | 14% | |
| 50 | 4% | 6% | |
| 51 | 1.3% | 2% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 5% | 98.8% | Last Result |
| 11 | 8% | 94% | |
| 12 | 26% | 86% | |
| 13 | 26% | 60% | Median |
| 14 | 14% | 34% | |
| 15 | 12% | 20% | |
| 16 | 4% | 8% | |
| 17 | 3% | 4% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 9 | 10% | 97% | |
| 10 | 16% | 86% | |
| 11 | 28% | 71% | Median |
| 12 | 20% | 43% | |
| 13 | 15% | 23% | |
| 14 | 6% | 8% | |
| 15 | 2% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 113 | 100% | 110–115 | 109–117 | 108–118 | 106–122 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 108 | 100% | 104–112 | 103–113 | 101–114 | 99–116 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 96 | 95% | 93–101 | 91–102 | 90–103 | 88–105 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 62 | 0% | 59–66 | 58–67 | 57–68 | 55–70 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 51 | 0% | 47–54 | 46–56 | 46–57 | 44–59 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 107 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 108 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 109 | 4% | 97% | |
| 110 | 8% | 93% | |
| 111 | 16% | 85% | |
| 112 | 10% | 68% | |
| 113 | 18% | 59% | Median |
| 114 | 19% | 41% | Last Result |
| 115 | 13% | 22% | |
| 116 | 4% | 9% | |
| 117 | 2% | 5% | |
| 118 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 119 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 121 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 122 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 100 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 101 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 102 | 2% | 97% | |
| 103 | 5% | 96% | |
| 104 | 6% | 91% | |
| 105 | 7% | 85% | |
| 106 | 10% | 78% | |
| 107 | 11% | 68% | |
| 108 | 14% | 56% | Median |
| 109 | 12% | 42% | |
| 110 | 11% | 30% | |
| 111 | 6% | 20% | |
| 112 | 5% | 14% | |
| 113 | 4% | 8% | Last Result |
| 114 | 2% | 4% | |
| 115 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 89 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 90 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 91 | 2% | 97% | |
| 92 | 4% | 95% | Majority |
| 93 | 7% | 91% | |
| 94 | 10% | 84% | |
| 95 | 11% | 74% | |
| 96 | 15% | 63% | |
| 97 | 9% | 48% | Median |
| 98 | 12% | 39% | |
| 99 | 10% | 27% | |
| 100 | 7% | 17% | |
| 101 | 4% | 10% | |
| 102 | 3% | 6% | |
| 103 | 1.4% | 3% | Last Result |
| 104 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 105 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 57 | 3% | 98% | |
| 58 | 5% | 95% | |
| 59 | 7% | 90% | |
| 60 | 10% | 83% | |
| 61 | 17% | 73% | |
| 62 | 12% | 56% | Last Result, Median |
| 63 | 13% | 44% | |
| 64 | 12% | 31% | |
| 65 | 7% | 19% | |
| 66 | 6% | 12% | |
| 67 | 3% | 6% | |
| 68 | 2% | 3% | |
| 69 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 45 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 46 | 3% | 98% | |
| 47 | 7% | 94% | |
| 48 | 8% | 88% | |
| 49 | 10% | 80% | |
| 50 | 14% | 69% | |
| 51 | 17% | 55% | Median |
| 52 | 13% | 37% | Last Result |
| 53 | 9% | 24% | |
| 54 | 6% | 15% | |
| 55 | 4% | 9% | |
| 56 | 2% | 5% | |
| 57 | 2% | 3% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Unique Research
- Commissioner(s): Heute
- Fieldwork period: 4–7 March 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.27%