Opinion Poll by Research Affairs for ÖSTERREICH, 28 March–3 April 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 34.0% | 32.1–35.9% | 31.6–36.5% | 31.1–37.0% | 30.2–37.9% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 24.0% | 22.3–25.8% | 21.8–26.3% | 21.4–26.7% | 20.7–27.6% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 23.0% | 21.3–24.8% | 20.9–25.3% | 20.5–25.7% | 19.7–26.6% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.5–9.8% | 6.0–10.5% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 67 | 62–69 | 61–71 | 60–72 | 58–75 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 47 | 43–50 | 42–51 | 42–52 | 40–54 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 45 | 41–48 | 40–49 | 40–50 | 38–52 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 15 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 12–19 | 11–20 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 9 | 8–11 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0–7 | 0–8 | 0–8 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 59 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98% | |
| 61 | 4% | 96% | |
| 62 | 4% | 92% | Last Result |
| 63 | 6% | 88% | |
| 64 | 6% | 82% | |
| 65 | 8% | 76% | |
| 66 | 14% | 69% | |
| 67 | 21% | 54% | Median |
| 68 | 13% | 33% | |
| 69 | 12% | 21% | |
| 70 | 3% | 9% | |
| 71 | 2% | 6% | |
| 72 | 2% | 4% | |
| 73 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 41 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 42 | 4% | 98% | |
| 43 | 7% | 94% | |
| 44 | 10% | 87% | |
| 45 | 13% | 77% | |
| 46 | 13% | 64% | |
| 47 | 16% | 51% | Median |
| 48 | 13% | 34% | |
| 49 | 7% | 21% | |
| 50 | 6% | 14% | |
| 51 | 5% | 8% | |
| 52 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 39 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 40 | 3% | 98% | |
| 41 | 6% | 94% | |
| 42 | 11% | 88% | |
| 43 | 12% | 78% | |
| 44 | 13% | 66% | |
| 45 | 16% | 53% | Median |
| 46 | 12% | 36% | |
| 47 | 10% | 24% | |
| 48 | 7% | 14% | |
| 49 | 3% | 7% | |
| 50 | 2% | 4% | |
| 51 | 1.1% | 2% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 13 | 8% | 96% | |
| 14 | 21% | 88% | |
| 15 | 21% | 67% | Median |
| 16 | 24% | 46% | |
| 17 | 12% | 22% | |
| 18 | 7% | 10% | |
| 19 | 2% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 95% | |
| 2 | 0% | 95% | |
| 3 | 0% | 95% | |
| 4 | 0% | 95% | |
| 5 | 0% | 95% | |
| 6 | 0% | 95% | |
| 7 | 2% | 95% | |
| 8 | 18% | 93% | |
| 9 | 27% | 75% | Median |
| 10 | 26% | 48% | |
| 11 | 14% | 22% | |
| 12 | 6% | 8% | |
| 13 | 2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 6% | |
| 7 | 3% | 6% | |
| 8 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 113 | 100% | 108–117 | 107–119 | 106–120 | 103–124 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 111 | 100% | 106–115 | 105–117 | 104–119 | 101–121 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 92 | 51% | 87–96 | 86–97 | 84–98 | 83–101 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 67 | 0% | 62–69 | 61–71 | 60–72 | 58–75 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 47 | 0% | 43–50 | 42–51 | 42–52 | 40–54 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 103 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 104 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 105 | 0.9% | 98.8% | |
| 106 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 107 | 3% | 97% | |
| 108 | 4% | 93% | |
| 109 | 6% | 89% | |
| 110 | 6% | 83% | |
| 111 | 8% | 77% | |
| 112 | 10% | 69% | |
| 113 | 15% | 59% | |
| 114 | 14% | 44% | Last Result, Median |
| 115 | 11% | 29% | |
| 116 | 6% | 19% | |
| 117 | 4% | 13% | |
| 118 | 3% | 8% | |
| 119 | 2% | 5% | |
| 120 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 121 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 101 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 102 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 103 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 104 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 105 | 2% | 96% | |
| 106 | 4% | 94% | |
| 107 | 5% | 90% | |
| 108 | 8% | 84% | |
| 109 | 10% | 76% | |
| 110 | 8% | 66% | |
| 111 | 13% | 59% | |
| 112 | 13% | 46% | Median |
| 113 | 11% | 33% | Last Result |
| 114 | 8% | 21% | |
| 115 | 5% | 13% | |
| 116 | 2% | 8% | |
| 117 | 2% | 6% | |
| 118 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 119 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 120 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 121 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 83 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 84 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 85 | 2% | 97% | |
| 86 | 3% | 95% | |
| 87 | 5% | 92% | |
| 88 | 10% | 87% | |
| 89 | 12% | 77% | |
| 90 | 6% | 65% | |
| 91 | 8% | 59% | |
| 92 | 17% | 51% | Median, Majority |
| 93 | 12% | 34% | |
| 94 | 7% | 21% | |
| 95 | 5% | 15% | |
| 96 | 3% | 10% | |
| 97 | 4% | 7% | |
| 98 | 2% | 4% | |
| 99 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 100 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 101 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 104 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 59 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98% | |
| 61 | 4% | 96% | |
| 62 | 4% | 92% | Last Result |
| 63 | 6% | 88% | |
| 64 | 6% | 82% | |
| 65 | 8% | 76% | |
| 66 | 14% | 69% | |
| 67 | 21% | 54% | Median |
| 68 | 13% | 33% | |
| 69 | 12% | 21% | |
| 70 | 3% | 9% | |
| 71 | 2% | 6% | |
| 72 | 2% | 4% | |
| 73 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 41 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 42 | 4% | 98% | |
| 43 | 7% | 94% | |
| 44 | 10% | 87% | |
| 45 | 13% | 77% | |
| 46 | 13% | 64% | |
| 47 | 16% | 51% | Median |
| 48 | 13% | 34% | |
| 49 | 7% | 21% | |
| 50 | 6% | 14% | |
| 51 | 5% | 8% | |
| 52 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Research Affairs
- Commissioner(s): ÖSTERREICH
- Fieldwork period: 28 March–3 April 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1001
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.49%