Opinion Poll by Demox Research, 28 March–11 April 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 33.0% | 31.5–34.6% | 31.0–35.0% | 30.7–35.4% | 29.9–36.2% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 27.0% | 25.6–28.5% | 25.2–28.9% | 24.8–29.3% | 24.1–30.0% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 24.0% | 22.6–25.5% | 22.2–25.9% | 21.9–26.2% | 21.3–26.9% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.2–7.9% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.5–8.9% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.3–6.9% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.6–7.8% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.2–3.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 62 | 60–66 | 59–66 | 58–67 | 57–69 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 51 | 48–54 | 48–55 | 47–55 | 46–57 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 45 | 43–48 | 42–49 | 41–49 | 40–51 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 13 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 11–16 | 10–16 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 11 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 59 | 6% | 96% | |
| 60 | 10% | 91% | |
| 61 | 13% | 80% | |
| 62 | 19% | 67% | Last Result, Median |
| 63 | 15% | 49% | |
| 64 | 14% | 33% | |
| 65 | 9% | 19% | |
| 66 | 6% | 10% | |
| 67 | 3% | 4% | |
| 68 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 47 | 3% | 98% | |
| 48 | 7% | 95% | |
| 49 | 12% | 89% | |
| 50 | 17% | 77% | |
| 51 | 19% | 60% | Median |
| 52 | 16% | 41% | Last Result |
| 53 | 12% | 25% | |
| 54 | 8% | 14% | |
| 55 | 4% | 6% | |
| 56 | 2% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 42 | 5% | 97% | |
| 43 | 10% | 92% | |
| 44 | 16% | 82% | |
| 45 | 18% | 66% | Median |
| 46 | 18% | 48% | |
| 47 | 13% | 29% | |
| 48 | 9% | 16% | |
| 49 | 4% | 7% | |
| 50 | 2% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 11 | 10% | 98% | |
| 12 | 24% | 88% | |
| 13 | 30% | 63% | Median |
| 14 | 22% | 34% | |
| 15 | 9% | 12% | |
| 16 | 2% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 9 | 8% | 99.0% | |
| 10 | 23% | 91% | |
| 11 | 34% | 68% | Median |
| 12 | 22% | 34% | |
| 13 | 9% | 12% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 114 | 100% | 111–117 | 110–118 | 109–118 | 107–120 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 108 | 100% | 105–111 | 104–112 | 103–113 | 102–114 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 97 | 98% | 93–100 | 92–100 | 92–101 | 90–103 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 62 | 0% | 60–66 | 59–66 | 58–67 | 57–69 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 51 | 0% | 48–54 | 48–55 | 47–55 | 46–57 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 106 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 108 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 109 | 3% | 98% | |
| 110 | 6% | 96% | |
| 111 | 9% | 90% | |
| 112 | 13% | 81% | |
| 113 | 17% | 68% | Median |
| 114 | 15% | 51% | Last Result |
| 115 | 14% | 35% | |
| 116 | 10% | 21% | |
| 117 | 6% | 11% | |
| 118 | 3% | 5% | |
| 119 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 103 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 104 | 4% | 96% | |
| 105 | 8% | 92% | |
| 106 | 12% | 83% | |
| 107 | 15% | 72% | Median |
| 108 | 16% | 57% | |
| 109 | 16% | 41% | |
| 110 | 11% | 25% | |
| 111 | 7% | 14% | |
| 112 | 4% | 7% | |
| 113 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 114 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 91 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 92 | 3% | 98% | Majority |
| 93 | 6% | 95% | |
| 94 | 10% | 89% | |
| 95 | 12% | 79% | |
| 96 | 16% | 67% | Median |
| 97 | 18% | 50% | |
| 98 | 13% | 33% | |
| 99 | 9% | 20% | |
| 100 | 6% | 10% | |
| 101 | 3% | 5% | |
| 102 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 103 | 0.5% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 104 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 59 | 6% | 96% | |
| 60 | 10% | 91% | |
| 61 | 13% | 80% | |
| 62 | 19% | 67% | Last Result, Median |
| 63 | 15% | 49% | |
| 64 | 14% | 33% | |
| 65 | 9% | 19% | |
| 66 | 6% | 10% | |
| 67 | 3% | 4% | |
| 68 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 47 | 3% | 98% | |
| 48 | 7% | 95% | |
| 49 | 12% | 89% | |
| 50 | 17% | 77% | |
| 51 | 19% | 60% | Median |
| 52 | 16% | 41% | Last Result |
| 53 | 12% | 25% | |
| 54 | 8% | 14% | |
| 55 | 4% | 6% | |
| 56 | 2% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Demox Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 28 March–11 April 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1500
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.81%