Opinion Poll by Research Affairs for ÖSTERREICH, 25 April–1 May 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 34.0% | 32.1–36.0% | 31.6–36.5% | 31.2–37.0% | 30.3–38.0% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 25.0% | 23.4–26.9% | 22.9–27.4% | 22.5–27.8% | 21.7–28.7% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 22.0% | 20.3–23.7% | 19.9–24.2% | 19.5–24.6% | 18.7–25.5% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 9.0% | 7.9–10.2% | 7.6–10.6% | 7.4–10.9% | 6.9–11.6% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 66 | 62–70 | 61–71 | 60–72 | 58–74 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 48 | 45–52 | 44–53 | 43–54 | 42–56 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 42 | 39–46 | 38–47 | 37–48 | 36–49 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 17 | 15–19 | 14–20 | 14–21 | 13–22 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 9 | 8–11 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 59 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98% | |
| 61 | 4% | 96% | |
| 62 | 6% | 92% | Last Result |
| 63 | 8% | 86% | |
| 64 | 11% | 78% | |
| 65 | 14% | 67% | |
| 66 | 13% | 53% | Median |
| 67 | 11% | 40% | |
| 68 | 10% | 28% | |
| 69 | 7% | 18% | |
| 70 | 5% | 11% | |
| 71 | 3% | 6% | |
| 72 | 2% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 43 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 44 | 4% | 97% | |
| 45 | 7% | 92% | |
| 46 | 10% | 85% | |
| 47 | 13% | 75% | |
| 48 | 14% | 62% | Median |
| 49 | 14% | 47% | |
| 50 | 12% | 33% | |
| 51 | 9% | 21% | |
| 52 | 6% | 13% | Last Result |
| 53 | 3% | 7% | |
| 54 | 2% | 3% | |
| 55 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 38 | 4% | 97% | |
| 39 | 7% | 93% | |
| 40 | 11% | 86% | |
| 41 | 13% | 76% | |
| 42 | 16% | 62% | Median |
| 43 | 14% | 46% | |
| 44 | 12% | 32% | |
| 45 | 9% | 20% | |
| 46 | 6% | 11% | |
| 47 | 3% | 6% | |
| 48 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 49 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 5% | 98% | |
| 15 | 12% | 94% | |
| 16 | 19% | 82% | |
| 17 | 22% | 63% | Median |
| 18 | 19% | 41% | |
| 19 | 12% | 22% | |
| 20 | 6% | 10% | |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 95% | |
| 2 | 0% | 95% | |
| 3 | 0% | 95% | |
| 4 | 0% | 95% | |
| 5 | 0% | 95% | |
| 6 | 0% | 95% | |
| 7 | 2% | 95% | |
| 8 | 19% | 92% | |
| 9 | 29% | 73% | Median |
| 10 | 25% | 44% | |
| 11 | 13% | 20% | |
| 12 | 5% | 6% | |
| 13 | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 114 | 100% | 110–118 | 109–120 | 108–121 | 105–124 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 108 | 100% | 104–112 | 103–114 | 102–115 | 99–118 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 91 | 39% | 87–95 | 85–96 | 84–97 | 82–100 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 66 | 0% | 62–70 | 61–71 | 60–72 | 58–74 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 48 | 0% | 45–52 | 44–53 | 43–54 | 42–56 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 106 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 107 | 1.1% | 98.7% | |
| 108 | 2% | 98% | |
| 109 | 3% | 95% | |
| 110 | 5% | 92% | |
| 111 | 7% | 87% | |
| 112 | 11% | 80% | |
| 113 | 10% | 68% | |
| 114 | 13% | 58% | Last Result, Median |
| 115 | 12% | 45% | |
| 116 | 11% | 33% | |
| 117 | 7% | 22% | |
| 118 | 6% | 15% | |
| 119 | 3% | 9% | |
| 120 | 2% | 6% | |
| 121 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 122 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 123 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 100 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 101 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 102 | 2% | 98% | |
| 103 | 4% | 96% | |
| 104 | 6% | 92% | |
| 105 | 7% | 86% | |
| 106 | 9% | 79% | |
| 107 | 12% | 70% | |
| 108 | 13% | 58% | Median |
| 109 | 12% | 45% | |
| 110 | 11% | 33% | |
| 111 | 8% | 22% | |
| 112 | 5% | 14% | |
| 113 | 4% | 9% | Last Result |
| 114 | 2% | 6% | |
| 115 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 116 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 117 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 83 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 84 | 1.4% | 98.6% | |
| 85 | 3% | 97% | |
| 86 | 4% | 94% | |
| 87 | 6% | 90% | |
| 88 | 9% | 84% | |
| 89 | 11% | 75% | |
| 90 | 12% | 64% | Median |
| 91 | 12% | 52% | |
| 92 | 11% | 39% | Majority |
| 93 | 9% | 28% | |
| 94 | 7% | 19% | |
| 95 | 5% | 12% | |
| 96 | 3% | 7% | |
| 97 | 2% | 4% | |
| 98 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 104 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 59 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98% | |
| 61 | 4% | 96% | |
| 62 | 6% | 92% | Last Result |
| 63 | 8% | 86% | |
| 64 | 11% | 78% | |
| 65 | 14% | 67% | |
| 66 | 13% | 53% | Median |
| 67 | 11% | 40% | |
| 68 | 10% | 28% | |
| 69 | 7% | 18% | |
| 70 | 5% | 11% | |
| 71 | 3% | 6% | |
| 72 | 2% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 43 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 44 | 4% | 97% | |
| 45 | 7% | 92% | |
| 46 | 10% | 85% | |
| 47 | 13% | 75% | |
| 48 | 14% | 62% | Median |
| 49 | 14% | 47% | |
| 50 | 12% | 33% | |
| 51 | 9% | 21% | |
| 52 | 6% | 13% | Last Result |
| 53 | 3% | 7% | |
| 54 | 2% | 3% | |
| 55 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Research Affairs
- Commissioner(s): ÖSTERREICH
- Fieldwork period: 25 April–1 May 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1002
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.85%