Opinion Poll by Demox Research, 25 April–2 May 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 34.0% | 32.4–35.6% | 32.0–36.0% | 31.6–36.4% | 30.9–37.2% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 27.0% | 25.6–28.5% | 25.2–28.9% | 24.8–29.3% | 24.1–30.0% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 22.0% | 20.7–23.4% | 20.3–23.8% | 20.0–24.2% | 19.3–24.9% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 8.0% | 7.2–9.0% | 6.9–9.3% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.3–10.0% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.3–6.9% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.6–7.8% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.2–3.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 64 | 61–67 | 61–68 | 60–69 | 59–71 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 51 | 48–54 | 48–55 | 47–55 | 46–57 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 42 | 39–44 | 38–45 | 38–46 | 36–47 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 15 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–18 | 12–18 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 11 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 60 | 3% | 98% | |
| 61 | 6% | 96% | |
| 62 | 11% | 90% | Last Result |
| 63 | 13% | 79% | |
| 64 | 17% | 66% | Median |
| 65 | 17% | 49% | |
| 66 | 13% | 32% | |
| 67 | 10% | 19% | |
| 68 | 5% | 9% | |
| 69 | 3% | 4% | |
| 70 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 47 | 3% | 98% | |
| 48 | 7% | 95% | |
| 49 | 12% | 88% | |
| 50 | 17% | 76% | |
| 51 | 20% | 59% | Median |
| 52 | 14% | 39% | Last Result |
| 53 | 12% | 25% | |
| 54 | 8% | 14% | |
| 55 | 4% | 6% | |
| 56 | 2% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 38 | 5% | 98% | |
| 39 | 10% | 93% | |
| 40 | 15% | 84% | |
| 41 | 17% | 69% | |
| 42 | 19% | 52% | Median |
| 43 | 15% | 33% | |
| 44 | 10% | 18% | |
| 45 | 5% | 8% | |
| 46 | 2% | 3% | |
| 47 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 12 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 13 | 12% | 97% | |
| 14 | 25% | 85% | |
| 15 | 29% | 60% | Median |
| 16 | 19% | 31% | |
| 17 | 9% | 12% | |
| 18 | 2% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 8% | 99.0% | |
| 10 | 24% | 91% | |
| 11 | 32% | 67% | Median |
| 12 | 24% | 35% | |
| 13 | 9% | 11% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 116 | 100% | 112–119 | 112–119 | 111–120 | 109–122 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 106 | 100% | 103–109 | 102–110 | 101–111 | 100–112 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 93 | 67% | 89–96 | 89–97 | 88–97 | 86–99 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 64 | 0% | 61–67 | 61–68 | 60–69 | 59–71 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 51 | 0% | 48–54 | 48–55 | 47–55 | 46–57 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 108 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 110 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 111 | 3% | 98% | |
| 112 | 5% | 95% | |
| 113 | 10% | 90% | |
| 114 | 14% | 80% | Last Result |
| 115 | 16% | 66% | Median |
| 116 | 17% | 50% | |
| 117 | 14% | 34% | |
| 118 | 9% | 20% | |
| 119 | 6% | 10% | |
| 120 | 3% | 4% | |
| 121 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 122 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 98 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 101 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 102 | 5% | 97% | |
| 103 | 7% | 92% | |
| 104 | 11% | 85% | |
| 105 | 17% | 74% | |
| 106 | 14% | 57% | Median |
| 107 | 17% | 43% | |
| 108 | 12% | 27% | |
| 109 | 7% | 15% | |
| 110 | 5% | 8% | |
| 111 | 2% | 3% | |
| 112 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 87 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 88 | 3% | 98% | |
| 89 | 6% | 95% | |
| 90 | 9% | 89% | |
| 91 | 14% | 81% | |
| 92 | 15% | 67% | Majority |
| 93 | 16% | 52% | Median |
| 94 | 13% | 36% | |
| 95 | 10% | 23% | |
| 96 | 7% | 13% | |
| 97 | 3% | 6% | |
| 98 | 2% | 2% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 60 | 3% | 98% | |
| 61 | 6% | 96% | |
| 62 | 11% | 90% | Last Result |
| 63 | 13% | 79% | |
| 64 | 17% | 66% | Median |
| 65 | 17% | 49% | |
| 66 | 13% | 32% | |
| 67 | 10% | 19% | |
| 68 | 5% | 9% | |
| 69 | 3% | 4% | |
| 70 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 47 | 3% | 98% | |
| 48 | 7% | 95% | |
| 49 | 12% | 88% | |
| 50 | 17% | 76% | |
| 51 | 20% | 59% | Median |
| 52 | 14% | 39% | Last Result |
| 53 | 12% | 25% | |
| 54 | 8% | 14% | |
| 55 | 4% | 6% | |
| 56 | 2% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Demox Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 25 April–2 May 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1500
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.32%