Opinion Poll by OGM for KURIER, 29 April–2 May 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 30.5% | 28.5–32.5% | 28.0–33.1% | 27.5–33.6% | 26.6–34.6% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 27.6% | 25.7–29.6% | 25.1–30.1% | 24.7–30.7% | 23.8–31.6% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 24.5% | 22.7–26.5% | 22.2–27.0% | 21.8–27.5% | 20.9–28.5% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.7–8.6% | 5.5–8.9% | 5.0–9.5% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 7.0% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.7–8.6% | 5.5–8.9% | 5.0–9.5% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.2% | 1.0–2.4% | 0.9–2.6% | 0.7–2.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 58 | 54–62 | 53–63 | 52–64 | 50–66 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 52 | 49–56 | 48–57 | 47–58 | 45–60 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 47 | 43–50 | 42–51 | 41–52 | 40–54 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 13 | 11–15 | 10–16 | 10–16 | 9–18 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 13 | 11–15 | 10–16 | 10–16 | 9–18 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 52 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 53 | 3% | 97% | |
| 54 | 6% | 93% | |
| 55 | 8% | 87% | |
| 56 | 11% | 79% | |
| 57 | 13% | 69% | |
| 58 | 14% | 56% | Median |
| 59 | 13% | 42% | |
| 60 | 10% | 29% | |
| 61 | 8% | 19% | |
| 62 | 5% | 11% | Last Result |
| 63 | 3% | 6% | |
| 64 | 2% | 3% | |
| 65 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 46 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98% | |
| 48 | 5% | 96% | |
| 49 | 7% | 91% | |
| 50 | 9% | 84% | |
| 51 | 13% | 75% | |
| 52 | 14% | 61% | Last Result, Median |
| 53 | 12% | 47% | |
| 54 | 12% | 35% | |
| 55 | 9% | 23% | |
| 56 | 6% | 14% | |
| 57 | 4% | 8% | |
| 58 | 2% | 4% | |
| 59 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 41 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 42 | 4% | 97% | |
| 43 | 7% | 93% | |
| 44 | 9% | 86% | |
| 45 | 12% | 77% | |
| 46 | 15% | 65% | |
| 47 | 13% | 50% | Median |
| 48 | 12% | 37% | |
| 49 | 10% | 24% | |
| 50 | 7% | 15% | |
| 51 | 4% | 8% | Last Result |
| 52 | 2% | 4% | |
| 53 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 4% | 99.0% | Last Result |
| 11 | 13% | 95% | |
| 12 | 19% | 81% | |
| 13 | 25% | 62% | Median |
| 14 | 17% | 37% | |
| 15 | 13% | 20% | |
| 16 | 5% | 7% | |
| 17 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 11 | 12% | 94% | |
| 12 | 21% | 82% | |
| 13 | 24% | 62% | Median |
| 14 | 19% | 38% | |
| 15 | 12% | 19% | |
| 16 | 5% | 8% | |
| 17 | 2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 110 | 100% | 106–114 | 105–115 | 104–116 | 102–118 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 104 | 100% | 100–109 | 99–110 | 98–111 | 96–113 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 99 | 99.0% | 95–103 | 94–104 | 93–105 | 91–107 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 84 | 1.0% | 80–88 | 79–89 | 78–90 | 76–92 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 62 | 79 | 0% | 74–82 | 73–84 | 72–85 | 70–87 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 71 | 0% | 67–75 | 66–76 | 65–77 | 63–79 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 71 | 0% | 67–75 | 66–76 | 65–77 | 63–79 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 58 | 0% | 54–62 | 53–63 | 52–64 | 50–66 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 52 | 0% | 49–56 | 48–57 | 47–58 | 45–60 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 103 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 104 | 2% | 98% | |
| 105 | 3% | 97% | |
| 106 | 5% | 93% | |
| 107 | 7% | 89% | |
| 108 | 9% | 81% | |
| 109 | 12% | 72% | |
| 110 | 13% | 60% | Median |
| 111 | 12% | 48% | |
| 112 | 11% | 35% | |
| 113 | 8% | 24% | |
| 114 | 7% | 16% | Last Result |
| 115 | 4% | 9% | |
| 116 | 2% | 5% | |
| 117 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 118 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 97 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 98 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 99 | 3% | 97% | |
| 100 | 4% | 94% | |
| 101 | 7% | 90% | |
| 102 | 9% | 83% | |
| 103 | 11% | 74% | |
| 104 | 12% | 62% | |
| 105 | 12% | 50% | Median |
| 106 | 12% | 38% | |
| 107 | 8% | 26% | |
| 108 | 7% | 18% | |
| 109 | 5% | 11% | |
| 110 | 3% | 6% | |
| 111 | 2% | 3% | |
| 112 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 114 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 91 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 92 | 1.3% | 99.0% | Majority |
| 93 | 2% | 98% | |
| 94 | 4% | 95% | |
| 95 | 5% | 91% | |
| 96 | 7% | 86% | |
| 97 | 10% | 79% | |
| 98 | 12% | 70% | |
| 99 | 15% | 57% | Median |
| 100 | 13% | 43% | |
| 101 | 10% | 30% | |
| 102 | 7% | 20% | |
| 103 | 4% | 13% | Last Result |
| 104 | 4% | 9% | |
| 105 | 2% | 5% | |
| 106 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 107 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 76 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 77 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 78 | 2% | 98% | |
| 79 | 4% | 95% | |
| 80 | 4% | 91% | |
| 81 | 7% | 87% | |
| 82 | 10% | 80% | |
| 83 | 13% | 70% | |
| 84 | 15% | 57% | Median |
| 85 | 12% | 43% | |
| 86 | 10% | 30% | |
| 87 | 7% | 21% | |
| 88 | 5% | 14% | |
| 89 | 4% | 9% | |
| 90 | 2% | 5% | |
| 91 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 92 | 0.6% | 1.0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 71 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 72 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 73 | 3% | 97% | |
| 74 | 5% | 94% | |
| 75 | 7% | 89% | |
| 76 | 8% | 82% | |
| 77 | 12% | 74% | |
| 78 | 12% | 62% | Median |
| 79 | 12% | 50% | |
| 80 | 11% | 38% | |
| 81 | 9% | 26% | |
| 82 | 7% | 17% | |
| 83 | 4% | 10% | |
| 84 | 3% | 6% | |
| 85 | 2% | 3% | |
| 86 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 64 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98% | |
| 66 | 4% | 96% | |
| 67 | 5% | 92% | |
| 68 | 8% | 87% | |
| 69 | 10% | 79% | |
| 70 | 13% | 69% | |
| 71 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 72 | 12% | 43% | |
| 73 | 10% | 31% | |
| 74 | 8% | 21% | |
| 75 | 6% | 13% | |
| 76 | 3% | 7% | |
| 77 | 2% | 4% | |
| 78 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 64 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98% | |
| 66 | 4% | 96% | |
| 67 | 6% | 92% | |
| 68 | 8% | 87% | |
| 69 | 10% | 79% | |
| 70 | 13% | 69% | |
| 71 | 14% | 56% | Median |
| 72 | 12% | 43% | Last Result |
| 73 | 10% | 30% | |
| 74 | 7% | 20% | |
| 75 | 5% | 13% | |
| 76 | 4% | 8% | |
| 77 | 2% | 4% | |
| 78 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 52 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 53 | 3% | 97% | |
| 54 | 6% | 93% | |
| 55 | 8% | 87% | |
| 56 | 11% | 79% | |
| 57 | 13% | 69% | |
| 58 | 14% | 56% | Median |
| 59 | 13% | 42% | |
| 60 | 10% | 29% | |
| 61 | 8% | 19% | |
| 62 | 5% | 11% | Last Result |
| 63 | 3% | 6% | |
| 64 | 2% | 3% | |
| 65 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 46 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98% | |
| 48 | 5% | 96% | |
| 49 | 7% | 91% | |
| 50 | 9% | 84% | |
| 51 | 13% | 75% | |
| 52 | 14% | 61% | Last Result, Median |
| 53 | 12% | 47% | |
| 54 | 12% | 35% | |
| 55 | 9% | 23% | |
| 56 | 6% | 14% | |
| 57 | 4% | 8% | |
| 58 | 2% | 4% | |
| 59 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: OGM
- Commissioner(s): KURIER
- Fieldwork period: 29 April–2 May 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 860
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.46%