Opinion Poll by Research Affairs, 18–20 May 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 38.0% | 35.3–40.8% | 34.5–41.6% | 33.9–42.3% | 32.6–43.7% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 26.0% | 23.6–28.6% | 22.9–29.4% | 22.3–30.0% | 21.2–31.3% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 18.0% | 15.9–20.4% | 15.4–21.0% | 14.9–21.6% | 13.9–22.8% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 9.0% | 7.5–10.9% | 7.1–11.4% | 6.8–11.8% | 6.2–12.8% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 5.0% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.7–6.9% | 3.4–7.3% | 3.0–8.1% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.4–3.1% | 1.2–3.4% | 1.1–3.6% | 0.9–4.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 73 | 67–78 | 66–80 | 65–82 | 62–85 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 50 | 45–55 | 44–56 | 42–58 | 40–60 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 34 | 30–39 | 29–40 | 28–41 | 26–44 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 17 | 14–20 | 13–21 | 13–22 | 11–24 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 9 | 0–12 | 0–13 | 0–13 | 0–15 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–8 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 64 | 1.1% | 98.7% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98% | |
| 66 | 3% | 96% | |
| 67 | 4% | 93% | |
| 68 | 5% | 89% | |
| 69 | 7% | 84% | |
| 70 | 8% | 77% | |
| 71 | 9% | 69% | |
| 72 | 9% | 60% | |
| 73 | 9% | 51% | Median |
| 74 | 8% | 42% | |
| 75 | 8% | 33% | |
| 76 | 7% | 25% | |
| 77 | 5% | 19% | |
| 78 | 4% | 14% | |
| 79 | 3% | 9% | |
| 80 | 2% | 6% | |
| 81 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 82 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 42 | 1.2% | 98.7% | |
| 43 | 2% | 97% | |
| 44 | 4% | 95% | |
| 45 | 5% | 91% | |
| 46 | 7% | 87% | |
| 47 | 9% | 80% | |
| 48 | 9% | 71% | |
| 49 | 10% | 62% | |
| 50 | 11% | 52% | Median |
| 51 | 9% | 41% | |
| 52 | 9% | 32% | Last Result |
| 53 | 7% | 23% | |
| 54 | 6% | 17% | |
| 55 | 4% | 11% | |
| 56 | 3% | 7% | |
| 57 | 2% | 4% | |
| 58 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 28 | 2% | 98% | |
| 29 | 3% | 97% | |
| 30 | 5% | 93% | |
| 31 | 7% | 88% | |
| 32 | 10% | 81% | |
| 33 | 10% | 71% | |
| 34 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 35 | 12% | 48% | |
| 36 | 10% | 37% | |
| 37 | 9% | 27% | |
| 38 | 6% | 18% | |
| 39 | 5% | 12% | |
| 40 | 3% | 7% | |
| 41 | 2% | 4% | |
| 42 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 13 | 4% | 98% | |
| 14 | 8% | 94% | |
| 15 | 12% | 86% | |
| 16 | 15% | 74% | |
| 17 | 16% | 59% | Median |
| 18 | 15% | 43% | |
| 19 | 11% | 29% | |
| 20 | 8% | 17% | |
| 21 | 5% | 10% | |
| 22 | 3% | 5% | |
| 23 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 89% | |
| 2 | 0% | 89% | |
| 3 | 0% | 89% | |
| 4 | 0% | 89% | |
| 5 | 0% | 89% | |
| 6 | 0% | 89% | |
| 7 | 4% | 89% | |
| 8 | 17% | 85% | |
| 9 | 21% | 68% | Median |
| 10 | 19% | 47% | |
| 11 | 14% | 28% | |
| 12 | 8% | 15% | |
| 13 | 4% | 6% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.1% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 122 | 100% | 117–128 | 115–131 | 114–132 | 111–136 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 107 | 100% | 101–113 | 100–115 | 98–117 | 96–120 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 84 | 6% | 79–90 | 77–92 | 76–93 | 73–97 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 73 | 0% | 67–78 | 66–80 | 65–82 | 62–85 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 50 | 0% | 45–55 | 44–56 | 42–58 | 40–60 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 112 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 113 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 114 | 1.4% | 98% | Last Result |
| 115 | 2% | 97% | |
| 116 | 3% | 95% | |
| 117 | 4% | 92% | |
| 118 | 6% | 87% | |
| 119 | 7% | 81% | |
| 120 | 9% | 74% | |
| 121 | 8% | 65% | |
| 122 | 9% | 57% | |
| 123 | 9% | 48% | Median |
| 124 | 8% | 39% | |
| 125 | 7% | 31% | |
| 126 | 6% | 24% | |
| 127 | 5% | 18% | |
| 128 | 4% | 13% | |
| 129 | 3% | 9% | |
| 130 | 2% | 7% | |
| 131 | 2% | 5% | |
| 132 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 133 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 134 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 135 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 97 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 98 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 99 | 2% | 97% | |
| 100 | 3% | 96% | |
| 101 | 4% | 93% | |
| 102 | 4% | 89% | |
| 103 | 6% | 85% | |
| 104 | 8% | 79% | |
| 105 | 8% | 72% | |
| 106 | 9% | 64% | |
| 107 | 10% | 56% | Median |
| 108 | 8% | 46% | |
| 109 | 7% | 38% | |
| 110 | 8% | 30% | |
| 111 | 6% | 22% | |
| 112 | 4% | 16% | |
| 113 | 4% | 13% | Last Result |
| 114 | 3% | 8% | |
| 115 | 2% | 6% | |
| 116 | 2% | 4% | |
| 117 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 118 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 119 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 75 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 76 | 2% | 98% | |
| 77 | 3% | 96% | |
| 78 | 3% | 93% | |
| 79 | 4% | 90% | |
| 80 | 5% | 86% | |
| 81 | 8% | 81% | |
| 82 | 10% | 73% | |
| 83 | 10% | 63% | |
| 84 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 85 | 7% | 46% | |
| 86 | 8% | 40% | |
| 87 | 8% | 32% | |
| 88 | 7% | 23% | |
| 89 | 5% | 16% | |
| 90 | 3% | 11% | |
| 91 | 2% | 8% | |
| 92 | 2% | 6% | Majority |
| 93 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 94 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 95 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 64 | 1.1% | 98.7% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98% | |
| 66 | 3% | 96% | |
| 67 | 4% | 93% | |
| 68 | 5% | 89% | |
| 69 | 7% | 84% | |
| 70 | 8% | 77% | |
| 71 | 9% | 69% | |
| 72 | 9% | 60% | |
| 73 | 9% | 51% | Median |
| 74 | 8% | 42% | |
| 75 | 8% | 33% | |
| 76 | 7% | 25% | |
| 77 | 5% | 19% | |
| 78 | 4% | 14% | |
| 79 | 3% | 9% | |
| 80 | 2% | 6% | |
| 81 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 82 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 42 | 1.2% | 98.7% | |
| 43 | 2% | 97% | |
| 44 | 4% | 95% | |
| 45 | 5% | 91% | |
| 46 | 7% | 87% | |
| 47 | 9% | 80% | |
| 48 | 9% | 71% | |
| 49 | 10% | 62% | |
| 50 | 11% | 52% | Median |
| 51 | 9% | 41% | |
| 52 | 9% | 32% | Last Result |
| 53 | 7% | 23% | |
| 54 | 6% | 17% | |
| 55 | 4% | 11% | |
| 56 | 3% | 7% | |
| 57 | 2% | 4% | |
| 58 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Research Affairs
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 18–20 May 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 500
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.90%