Opinion Poll by OGM for KURIER, 27–29 May 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 36.0% | 33.9–38.2% | 33.3–38.9% | 32.8–39.4% | 31.8–40.5% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 22.0% | 20.2–23.9% | 19.7–24.5% | 19.3–25.0% | 18.4–25.9% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 21.0% | 19.2–22.9% | 18.7–23.5% | 18.3–23.9% | 17.5–24.9% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 10.1% | 8.8–11.6% | 8.5–12.0% | 8.2–12.3% | 7.6–13.1% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 8.0% | 6.8–9.3% | 6.5–9.7% | 6.3–10.0% | 5.8–10.7% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.2% | 0.9–2.4% | 0.9–2.6% | 0.7–3.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 68 | 64–72 | 63–74 | 62–74 | 60–77 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 41 | 38–45 | 37–46 | 36–47 | 35–49 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 40 | 36–43 | 35–44 | 34–45 | 33–47 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 19 | 16–22 | 16–22 | 15–23 | 14–24 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 15 | 13–17 | 12–18 | 11–19 | 11–20 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 63 | 3% | 96% | |
| 64 | 5% | 93% | |
| 65 | 8% | 88% | |
| 66 | 10% | 80% | |
| 67 | 11% | 70% | |
| 68 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 69 | 12% | 46% | |
| 70 | 11% | 34% | |
| 71 | 8% | 23% | |
| 72 | 6% | 15% | |
| 73 | 4% | 9% | |
| 74 | 3% | 5% | |
| 75 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 36 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 37 | 4% | 97% | |
| 38 | 7% | 93% | |
| 39 | 9% | 86% | |
| 40 | 14% | 77% | |
| 41 | 14% | 63% | Median |
| 42 | 14% | 49% | |
| 43 | 12% | 35% | |
| 44 | 9% | 23% | |
| 45 | 6% | 14% | |
| 46 | 4% | 8% | |
| 47 | 2% | 4% | |
| 48 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 35 | 3% | 97% | |
| 36 | 6% | 94% | |
| 37 | 10% | 88% | |
| 38 | 13% | 78% | |
| 39 | 14% | 65% | |
| 40 | 14% | 51% | Median |
| 41 | 13% | 37% | |
| 42 | 10% | 24% | |
| 43 | 6% | 14% | |
| 44 | 4% | 8% | |
| 45 | 2% | 4% | |
| 46 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 16 | 8% | 96% | |
| 17 | 14% | 88% | |
| 18 | 19% | 74% | |
| 19 | 18% | 55% | Median |
| 20 | 16% | 37% | |
| 21 | 11% | 21% | |
| 22 | 6% | 10% | |
| 23 | 3% | 4% | |
| 24 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 11 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 12 | 7% | 97% | |
| 13 | 14% | 91% | |
| 14 | 19% | 76% | |
| 15 | 22% | 57% | Median |
| 16 | 17% | 35% | |
| 17 | 10% | 18% | |
| 18 | 5% | 8% | |
| 19 | 2% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 110 | 100% | 105–114 | 104–115 | 103–116 | 101–118 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 108 | 100% | 104–112 | 102–113 | 101–114 | 99–116 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 102 | 99.9% | 98–106 | 96–107 | 95–108 | 93–110 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 87 | 9% | 83–91 | 82–92 | 81–94 | 79–96 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 83 | 0.5% | 79–87 | 78–88 | 77–89 | 75–92 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 81 | 0.1% | 77–85 | 76–87 | 75–88 | 73–90 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 62 | 75 | 0% | 71–79 | 70–81 | 69–82 | 67–84 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 68 | 0% | 64–72 | 63–74 | 62–74 | 60–77 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 41 | 0% | 38–45 | 37–46 | 36–47 | 35–49 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 102 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 103 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 104 | 3% | 97% | |
| 105 | 4% | 94% | |
| 106 | 6% | 90% | |
| 107 | 10% | 84% | |
| 108 | 10% | 75% | |
| 109 | 13% | 64% | Median |
| 110 | 12% | 52% | |
| 111 | 11% | 40% | |
| 112 | 9% | 29% | |
| 113 | 8% | 20% | |
| 114 | 6% | 12% | Last Result |
| 115 | 3% | 7% | |
| 116 | 2% | 3% | |
| 117 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 118 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 100 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 101 | 1.5% | 98.7% | |
| 102 | 3% | 97% | |
| 103 | 4% | 95% | |
| 104 | 7% | 91% | |
| 105 | 8% | 84% | |
| 106 | 10% | 76% | |
| 107 | 12% | 66% | |
| 108 | 14% | 54% | Median |
| 109 | 9% | 40% | |
| 110 | 11% | 31% | |
| 111 | 8% | 21% | |
| 112 | 5% | 13% | |
| 113 | 3% | 8% | Last Result |
| 114 | 2% | 4% | |
| 115 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 94 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 95 | 1.3% | 98.6% | |
| 96 | 2% | 97% | |
| 97 | 5% | 95% | |
| 98 | 6% | 90% | |
| 99 | 6% | 84% | |
| 100 | 12% | 78% | |
| 101 | 12% | 67% | |
| 102 | 11% | 54% | Median |
| 103 | 11% | 43% | |
| 104 | 11% | 32% | |
| 105 | 8% | 21% | |
| 106 | 5% | 13% | |
| 107 | 4% | 8% | |
| 108 | 3% | 5% | |
| 109 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 110 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 79 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 80 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 81 | 2% | 98% | |
| 82 | 4% | 95% | |
| 83 | 6% | 91% | |
| 84 | 8% | 86% | |
| 85 | 10% | 78% | |
| 86 | 10% | 68% | |
| 87 | 13% | 58% | Median |
| 88 | 12% | 45% | |
| 89 | 10% | 33% | |
| 90 | 8% | 23% | |
| 91 | 6% | 15% | |
| 92 | 4% | 9% | Majority |
| 93 | 2% | 5% | |
| 94 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 95 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 76 | 1.2% | 98.8% | |
| 77 | 2% | 98% | |
| 78 | 4% | 95% | |
| 79 | 6% | 91% | |
| 80 | 7% | 86% | |
| 81 | 10% | 78% | |
| 82 | 12% | 68% | |
| 83 | 11% | 56% | Median |
| 84 | 13% | 45% | |
| 85 | 10% | 33% | |
| 86 | 8% | 23% | |
| 87 | 6% | 15% | |
| 88 | 4% | 9% | |
| 89 | 3% | 5% | |
| 90 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 74 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 75 | 3% | 98% | |
| 76 | 4% | 95% | |
| 77 | 5% | 92% | |
| 78 | 8% | 87% | |
| 79 | 11% | 79% | |
| 80 | 11% | 68% | |
| 81 | 11% | 57% | Median |
| 82 | 12% | 46% | |
| 83 | 12% | 33% | |
| 84 | 6% | 22% | |
| 85 | 6% | 16% | |
| 86 | 5% | 10% | |
| 87 | 2% | 5% | |
| 88 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 89 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 68 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 69 | 2% | 98% | |
| 70 | 3% | 96% | |
| 71 | 5% | 92% | |
| 72 | 8% | 87% | |
| 73 | 11% | 79% | |
| 74 | 9% | 69% | |
| 75 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 76 | 12% | 46% | |
| 77 | 10% | 34% | |
| 78 | 8% | 24% | |
| 79 | 7% | 16% | |
| 80 | 4% | 9% | |
| 81 | 3% | 5% | |
| 82 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 63 | 3% | 96% | |
| 64 | 5% | 93% | |
| 65 | 8% | 88% | |
| 66 | 10% | 80% | |
| 67 | 11% | 70% | |
| 68 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 69 | 12% | 46% | |
| 70 | 11% | 34% | |
| 71 | 8% | 23% | |
| 72 | 6% | 15% | |
| 73 | 4% | 9% | |
| 74 | 3% | 5% | |
| 75 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 36 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 37 | 4% | 97% | |
| 38 | 7% | 93% | |
| 39 | 9% | 86% | |
| 40 | 14% | 77% | |
| 41 | 14% | 63% | Median |
| 42 | 14% | 49% | |
| 43 | 12% | 35% | |
| 44 | 9% | 23% | |
| 45 | 6% | 14% | |
| 46 | 4% | 8% | |
| 47 | 2% | 4% | |
| 48 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: OGM
- Commissioner(s): KURIER
- Fieldwork period: 27–29 May 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 805
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.34%