Opinion Poll by Demox Research, 1–31 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 31.5% 37.7% 35.8–39.7% 35.2–40.3% 34.7–40.8% 33.8–41.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 26.9% 22.6% 21.0–24.4% 20.5–24.9% 20.1–25.3% 19.3–26.2%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 26.0% 18.6% 17.1–20.3% 16.7–20.7% 16.3–21.1% 15.6–21.9%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 5.3% 10.6% 9.4–11.9% 9.1–12.3% 8.8–12.7% 8.3–13.3%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 3.8% 8.5% 7.5–9.7% 7.2–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.4–11.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 71 67–74 66–75 65–76 63–78
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 42 39–45 38–46 37–47 36–49
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 51 35 32–38 31–39 30–39 29–41
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 10 20 17–22 17–23 16–23 15–25
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 0 16 14–18 13–19 13–19 12–20

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
63 0.4% 99.8%  
64 1.0% 99.4%  
65 2% 98%  
66 4% 97%  
67 6% 93%  
68 9% 87%  
69 12% 78%  
70 14% 66%  
71 14% 52% Median
72 12% 39%  
73 10% 26%  
74 7% 17%  
75 4% 9%  
76 3% 5%  
77 1.3% 2%  
78 0.6% 1.0%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.7%  
37 2% 99.1%  
38 4% 97%  
39 7% 94%  
40 11% 86%  
41 14% 76%  
42 17% 62% Median
43 14% 45%  
44 13% 31%  
45 8% 18%  
46 5% 10%  
47 3% 5%  
48 1.2% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.8%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.8% 99.7%  
30 2% 99.0%  
31 5% 97%  
32 9% 92%  
33 13% 83%  
34 17% 70%  
35 16% 53% Median
36 14% 36%  
37 11% 22%  
38 6% 12%  
39 3% 5%  
40 1.4% 2%  
41 0.5% 0.8%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Last Result

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.7% 99.9%  
16 3% 99.2%  
17 9% 96%  
18 14% 88%  
19 22% 74%  
20 20% 52% Median
21 16% 32%  
22 9% 15%  
23 4% 6%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.4% 0.6%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.3% 100%  
12 2% 99.7%  
13 7% 98%  
14 15% 91%  
15 22% 76%  
16 23% 54% Median
17 17% 31%  
18 9% 14%  
19 4% 5%  
20 1.2% 2%  
21 0.3% 0.4%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 114 113 100% 109–117 108–118 107–119 105–120
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 72 106 100% 102–110 101–111 100–112 98–113
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 113 105 100% 102–109 101–110 100–111 98–113
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 90 34% 87–94 85–95 85–96 83–98
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 86 4% 83–90 82–91 81–92 79–94
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 78 0% 74–81 73–82 72–83 70–85
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 103 77 0% 73–81 72–82 71–83 70–85
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 71 0% 67–74 66–75 65–76 63–78
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 42 0% 39–45 38–46 37–47 36–49

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.4% 99.8%  
106 0.8% 99.5%  
107 2% 98.6%  
108 3% 97%  
109 5% 94%  
110 8% 88%  
111 10% 80%  
112 13% 69%  
113 14% 56% Median
114 13% 42% Last Result
115 10% 29%  
116 8% 19%  
117 5% 11%  
118 3% 6%  
119 1.4% 3%  
120 0.7% 1.1%  
121 0.3% 0.4%  
122 0.1% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100% Majority
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.4% 99.8%  
99 0.7% 99.4%  
100 2% 98.8%  
101 3% 97%  
102 6% 94%  
103 7% 88%  
104 11% 81%  
105 12% 70%  
106 14% 58%  
107 13% 44% Median
108 11% 31%  
109 9% 20%  
110 5% 12%  
111 4% 7%  
112 1.5% 3%  
113 0.9% 1.3%  
114 0.3% 0.5%  
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0.1% 100%  
97 0.2% 99.9%  
98 0.6% 99.6%  
99 1.3% 99.0%  
100 2% 98%  
101 4% 95%  
102 7% 91%  
103 10% 84%  
104 12% 74%  
105 14% 63%  
106 13% 49% Median
107 12% 36%  
108 9% 24%  
109 6% 14%  
110 4% 8%  
111 2% 4%  
112 1.1% 2%  
113 0.5% 0.7% Last Result
114 0.2% 0.3%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.3% 99.9%  
83 0.7% 99.6%  
84 1.4% 99.0%  
85 3% 98%  
86 4% 95%  
87 7% 90%  
88 10% 83%  
89 13% 74%  
90 14% 61%  
91 13% 47% Median
92 11% 34% Majority
93 9% 23%  
94 6% 14%  
95 4% 8%  
96 2% 4%  
97 1.1% 2%  
98 0.5% 0.8%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.3% 99.9%  
79 0.6% 99.6%  
80 1.3% 99.0%  
81 3% 98%  
82 5% 95%  
83 6% 90%  
84 10% 84%  
85 13% 74%  
86 12% 61%  
87 14% 49% Median
88 12% 36%  
89 9% 24%  
90 6% 14%  
91 4% 8%  
92 2% 4% Majority
93 1.1% 2%  
94 0.5% 0.8%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.5% 99.7%  
71 1.1% 99.2%  
72 2% 98%  
73 4% 96%  
74 6% 92%  
75 9% 85%  
76 12% 76%  
77 13% 64%  
78 14% 51% Median
79 12% 37%  
80 10% 26%  
81 7% 16%  
82 4% 9%  
83 2% 5%  
84 1.3% 2%  
85 0.6% 1.0%  
86 0.2% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.8%  
70 0.9% 99.5%  
71 1.5% 98.7%  
72 4% 97%  
73 5% 93%  
74 9% 88%  
75 11% 80%  
76 13% 69%  
77 14% 56% Median
78 12% 42%  
79 11% 30%  
80 7% 19%  
81 6% 12%  
82 3% 6%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.7% 1.2%  
85 0.4% 0.6%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
63 0.4% 99.8%  
64 1.0% 99.4%  
65 2% 98%  
66 4% 97%  
67 6% 93%  
68 9% 87%  
69 12% 78%  
70 14% 66%  
71 14% 52% Median
72 12% 39%  
73 10% 26%  
74 7% 17%  
75 4% 9%  
76 3% 5%  
77 1.3% 2%  
78 0.6% 1.0%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.7%  
37 2% 99.1%  
38 4% 97%  
39 7% 94%  
40 11% 86%  
41 14% 76%  
42 17% 62% Median
43 14% 45%  
44 13% 31%  
45 8% 18%  
46 5% 10%  
47 3% 5%  
48 1.2% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.8%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations