Opinion Poll by Research Affairs for ÖSTERREICH, 29–31 May 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 38.0% | 35.3–40.8% | 34.5–41.6% | 33.9–42.3% | 32.6–43.7% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 23.0% | 20.7–25.5% | 20.1–26.3% | 19.5–26.9% | 18.5–28.2% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 17.0% | 15.0–19.3% | 14.4–20.0% | 14.0–20.5% | 13.0–21.7% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 10.0% | 8.5–11.9% | 8.0–12.5% | 7.7–13.0% | 7.0–13.9% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 8.0% | 6.6–9.8% | 6.2–10.3% | 5.9–10.7% | 5.3–11.6% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 1.0% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.1% | 0.4–2.3% | 0.3–2.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 72 | 67–78 | 65–79 | 64–80 | 61–83 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 44 | 39–48 | 38–50 | 37–51 | 35–53 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 32 | 28–36 | 27–38 | 26–39 | 24–41 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 19 | 16–22 | 15–23 | 14–24 | 13–26 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 15 | 12–18 | 11–19 | 11–20 | 10–22 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98% | |
| 65 | 2% | 96% | |
| 66 | 4% | 95% | |
| 67 | 4% | 91% | |
| 68 | 7% | 87% | |
| 69 | 6% | 80% | |
| 70 | 10% | 73% | |
| 71 | 8% | 64% | |
| 72 | 10% | 56% | Median |
| 73 | 8% | 46% | |
| 74 | 9% | 38% | |
| 75 | 7% | 29% | |
| 76 | 6% | 21% | |
| 77 | 5% | 16% | |
| 78 | 4% | 10% | |
| 79 | 2% | 6% | |
| 80 | 2% | 4% | |
| 81 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 36 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 37 | 2% | 98% | |
| 38 | 4% | 96% | |
| 39 | 5% | 92% | |
| 40 | 7% | 87% | |
| 41 | 9% | 80% | |
| 42 | 10% | 72% | |
| 43 | 11% | 61% | |
| 44 | 11% | 50% | Median |
| 45 | 10% | 39% | |
| 46 | 8% | 30% | |
| 47 | 7% | 21% | |
| 48 | 5% | 14% | |
| 49 | 4% | 9% | |
| 50 | 2% | 6% | |
| 51 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 52 | 0.8% | 2% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 26 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 27 | 3% | 96% | |
| 28 | 5% | 93% | |
| 29 | 8% | 88% | |
| 30 | 11% | 80% | |
| 31 | 11% | 69% | |
| 32 | 11% | 58% | Median |
| 33 | 12% | 46% | |
| 34 | 11% | 34% | |
| 35 | 7% | 22% | |
| 36 | 6% | 15% | |
| 37 | 4% | 10% | |
| 38 | 3% | 5% | |
| 39 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 15 | 5% | 96% | |
| 16 | 9% | 91% | |
| 17 | 12% | 82% | |
| 18 | 15% | 70% | |
| 19 | 15% | 55% | Median |
| 20 | 14% | 40% | |
| 21 | 10% | 26% | |
| 22 | 7% | 16% | |
| 23 | 4% | 9% | |
| 24 | 2% | 4% | |
| 25 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 11 | 4% | 98% | |
| 12 | 8% | 95% | |
| 13 | 13% | 87% | |
| 14 | 16% | 74% | |
| 15 | 17% | 58% | Median |
| 16 | 15% | 41% | |
| 17 | 11% | 26% | |
| 18 | 7% | 15% | |
| 19 | 4% | 8% | |
| 20 | 2% | 4% | |
| 21 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 116 | 100% | 110–121 | 108–123 | 107–124 | 104–126 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 104 | 99.8% | 99–110 | 97–112 | 95–113 | 93–115 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 76 | 0% | 70–81 | 69–83 | 67–84 | 65–87 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 72 | 0% | 67–78 | 65–79 | 64–80 | 61–83 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 44 | 0% | 39–48 | 38–50 | 37–51 | 35–53 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 105 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 106 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 107 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 108 | 2% | 96% | |
| 109 | 3% | 94% | |
| 110 | 3% | 92% | |
| 111 | 5% | 88% | |
| 112 | 6% | 84% | |
| 113 | 8% | 77% | |
| 114 | 9% | 69% | Last Result |
| 115 | 8% | 61% | |
| 116 | 8% | 53% | Median |
| 117 | 9% | 45% | |
| 118 | 9% | 36% | |
| 119 | 7% | 27% | |
| 120 | 7% | 20% | |
| 121 | 4% | 13% | |
| 122 | 3% | 9% | |
| 123 | 2% | 6% | |
| 124 | 2% | 4% | |
| 125 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 126 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 127 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 94 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 95 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 96 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 97 | 2% | 96% | |
| 98 | 3% | 94% | |
| 99 | 4% | 90% | |
| 100 | 6% | 86% | |
| 101 | 6% | 80% | |
| 102 | 7% | 74% | |
| 103 | 8% | 67% | |
| 104 | 10% | 58% | Median |
| 105 | 9% | 49% | |
| 106 | 9% | 40% | |
| 107 | 7% | 31% | |
| 108 | 6% | 24% | |
| 109 | 6% | 18% | |
| 110 | 4% | 12% | |
| 111 | 3% | 8% | |
| 112 | 2% | 5% | |
| 113 | 1.2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 114 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 66 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 67 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 68 | 2% | 97% | |
| 69 | 2% | 96% | |
| 70 | 4% | 93% | |
| 71 | 5% | 89% | |
| 72 | 6% | 84% | |
| 73 | 8% | 78% | |
| 74 | 9% | 70% | |
| 75 | 8% | 61% | |
| 76 | 8% | 53% | Median |
| 77 | 10% | 45% | |
| 78 | 9% | 35% | |
| 79 | 6% | 26% | |
| 80 | 6% | 20% | |
| 81 | 5% | 14% | |
| 82 | 3% | 9% | |
| 83 | 2% | 6% | |
| 84 | 2% | 4% | |
| 85 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98% | |
| 65 | 2% | 96% | |
| 66 | 4% | 95% | |
| 67 | 4% | 91% | |
| 68 | 7% | 87% | |
| 69 | 6% | 80% | |
| 70 | 10% | 73% | |
| 71 | 8% | 64% | |
| 72 | 10% | 56% | Median |
| 73 | 8% | 46% | |
| 74 | 9% | 38% | |
| 75 | 7% | 29% | |
| 76 | 6% | 21% | |
| 77 | 5% | 16% | |
| 78 | 4% | 10% | |
| 79 | 2% | 6% | |
| 80 | 2% | 4% | |
| 81 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 36 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 37 | 2% | 98% | |
| 38 | 4% | 96% | |
| 39 | 5% | 92% | |
| 40 | 7% | 87% | |
| 41 | 9% | 80% | |
| 42 | 10% | 72% | |
| 43 | 11% | 61% | |
| 44 | 11% | 50% | Median |
| 45 | 10% | 39% | |
| 46 | 8% | 30% | |
| 47 | 7% | 21% | |
| 48 | 5% | 14% | |
| 49 | 4% | 9% | |
| 50 | 2% | 6% | |
| 51 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 52 | 0.8% | 2% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Research Affairs
- Commissioner(s): ÖSTERREICH
- Fieldwork period: 29–31 May 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 500
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.46%