Opinion Poll by Research Affairs for ÖSTERREICH, 29 May–4 June 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 38.0% | 36.1–40.0% | 35.5–40.6% | 35.0–41.1% | 34.1–42.0% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 23.0% | 21.4–24.8% | 20.9–25.3% | 20.5–25.7% | 19.7–26.6% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 17.0% | 15.5–18.6% | 15.1–19.1% | 14.8–19.5% | 14.1–20.3% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 9.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.6–10.6% | 7.4–10.9% | 6.9–11.6% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 9.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.6–10.6% | 7.4–10.9% | 6.9–11.6% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 73 | 69–76 | 68–77 | 67–78 | 65–80 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 44 | 40–47 | 40–48 | 39–49 | 37–51 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 32 | 29–35 | 29–36 | 28–37 | 27–38 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 17 | 15–19 | 14–20 | 14–21 | 13–22 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 17 | 15–19 | 14–20 | 14–20 | 13–22 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 66 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98% | |
| 68 | 4% | 95% | |
| 69 | 7% | 92% | |
| 70 | 9% | 85% | |
| 71 | 12% | 76% | |
| 72 | 12% | 64% | |
| 73 | 14% | 52% | Median |
| 74 | 12% | 38% | |
| 75 | 9% | 26% | |
| 76 | 7% | 17% | |
| 77 | 5% | 10% | |
| 78 | 3% | 5% | |
| 79 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 39 | 3% | 98% | |
| 40 | 5% | 95% | |
| 41 | 9% | 90% | |
| 42 | 12% | 81% | |
| 43 | 14% | 69% | |
| 44 | 15% | 55% | Median |
| 45 | 15% | 40% | |
| 46 | 10% | 25% | |
| 47 | 7% | 14% | |
| 48 | 4% | 8% | |
| 49 | 2% | 4% | |
| 50 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 28 | 3% | 98% | |
| 29 | 6% | 95% | |
| 30 | 11% | 89% | |
| 31 | 15% | 78% | |
| 32 | 17% | 63% | Median |
| 33 | 15% | 46% | |
| 34 | 13% | 30% | |
| 35 | 9% | 17% | |
| 36 | 5% | 8% | |
| 37 | 2% | 4% | |
| 38 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 1.5% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 6% | 98% | |
| 15 | 14% | 92% | |
| 16 | 19% | 78% | |
| 17 | 22% | 60% | Median |
| 18 | 20% | 38% | |
| 19 | 11% | 18% | |
| 20 | 4% | 7% | |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 6% | 98% | |
| 15 | 13% | 92% | |
| 16 | 20% | 79% | |
| 17 | 23% | 59% | Median |
| 18 | 18% | 36% | |
| 19 | 11% | 18% | |
| 20 | 5% | 8% | |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 117 | 100% | 112–120 | 111–121 | 110–122 | 108–124 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 105 | 100% | 101–109 | 100–110 | 99–111 | 96–113 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 76 | 0% | 72–80 | 71–81 | 70–82 | 68–84 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 73 | 0% | 69–76 | 68–77 | 67–78 | 65–80 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 44 | 0% | 40–47 | 40–48 | 39–49 | 37–51 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 108 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 109 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 110 | 2% | 98% | |
| 111 | 3% | 97% | |
| 112 | 4% | 94% | |
| 113 | 7% | 90% | |
| 114 | 9% | 83% | Last Result |
| 115 | 12% | 74% | |
| 116 | 12% | 62% | |
| 117 | 13% | 50% | Median |
| 118 | 12% | 37% | |
| 119 | 10% | 25% | |
| 120 | 7% | 15% | |
| 121 | 4% | 8% | |
| 122 | 2% | 4% | |
| 123 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 124 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 97 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 98 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 99 | 2% | 98% | |
| 100 | 4% | 95% | |
| 101 | 6% | 92% | |
| 102 | 8% | 86% | |
| 103 | 10% | 78% | |
| 104 | 12% | 68% | |
| 105 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 106 | 12% | 43% | |
| 107 | 11% | 31% | |
| 108 | 7% | 20% | |
| 109 | 6% | 12% | |
| 110 | 3% | 7% | |
| 111 | 2% | 3% | |
| 112 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 69 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 70 | 2% | 98% | |
| 71 | 3% | 97% | |
| 72 | 6% | 94% | |
| 73 | 8% | 88% | |
| 74 | 10% | 80% | |
| 75 | 13% | 71% | |
| 76 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 77 | 13% | 46% | |
| 78 | 12% | 33% | |
| 79 | 8% | 21% | |
| 80 | 6% | 13% | |
| 81 | 4% | 7% | |
| 82 | 2% | 4% | |
| 83 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 66 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98% | |
| 68 | 4% | 95% | |
| 69 | 7% | 92% | |
| 70 | 9% | 85% | |
| 71 | 12% | 76% | |
| 72 | 12% | 64% | |
| 73 | 14% | 52% | Median |
| 74 | 12% | 38% | |
| 75 | 9% | 26% | |
| 76 | 7% | 17% | |
| 77 | 5% | 10% | |
| 78 | 3% | 5% | |
| 79 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 39 | 3% | 98% | |
| 40 | 5% | 95% | |
| 41 | 9% | 90% | |
| 42 | 12% | 81% | |
| 43 | 14% | 69% | |
| 44 | 15% | 55% | Median |
| 45 | 15% | 40% | |
| 46 | 10% | 25% | |
| 47 | 7% | 14% | |
| 48 | 4% | 8% | |
| 49 | 2% | 4% | |
| 50 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Research Affairs
- Commissioner(s): ÖSTERREICH
- Fieldwork period: 29 May–4 June 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.75%