Opinion Poll by Unique Research, 31 May–5 June 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 37.0% | 34.8–39.2% | 34.2–39.9% | 33.7–40.4% | 32.7–41.5% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 21.0% | 19.2–22.9% | 18.7–23.5% | 18.3–24.0% | 17.5–24.9% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 20.0% | 18.3–21.9% | 17.8–22.5% | 17.4–22.9% | 16.6–23.9% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 10.0% | 8.7–11.5% | 8.4–11.9% | 8.1–12.3% | 7.5–13.0% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 10.0% | 8.7–11.5% | 8.4–11.9% | 8.1–12.3% | 7.5–13.0% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% | 0.4–2.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 69 | 65–73 | 64–74 | 63–76 | 61–78 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 39 | 36–43 | 35–44 | 34–45 | 33–47 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 37 | 34–41 | 33–42 | 32–43 | 31–44 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 19 | 16–21 | 15–22 | 15–23 | 14–24 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 18 | 16–21 | 15–22 | 15–23 | 14–24 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 63 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 64 | 3% | 97% | |
| 65 | 6% | 94% | |
| 66 | 7% | 88% | |
| 67 | 9% | 81% | |
| 68 | 11% | 71% | |
| 69 | 13% | 60% | Median |
| 70 | 11% | 47% | |
| 71 | 10% | 36% | |
| 72 | 10% | 25% | |
| 73 | 6% | 16% | |
| 74 | 4% | 9% | |
| 75 | 2% | 5% | |
| 76 | 2% | 3% | |
| 77 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 78 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 34 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 35 | 4% | 96% | |
| 36 | 7% | 92% | |
| 37 | 11% | 85% | |
| 38 | 13% | 74% | |
| 39 | 15% | 61% | Median |
| 40 | 14% | 46% | |
| 41 | 12% | 31% | |
| 42 | 8% | 20% | |
| 43 | 5% | 11% | |
| 44 | 3% | 6% | |
| 45 | 2% | 3% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 33 | 4% | 97% | |
| 34 | 7% | 93% | |
| 35 | 10% | 86% | |
| 36 | 11% | 76% | |
| 37 | 16% | 64% | Median |
| 38 | 15% | 49% | |
| 39 | 13% | 33% | |
| 40 | 9% | 20% | |
| 41 | 5% | 11% | |
| 42 | 3% | 6% | |
| 43 | 2% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 5% | 98.7% | |
| 16 | 10% | 93% | |
| 17 | 11% | 83% | |
| 18 | 19% | 72% | |
| 19 | 25% | 53% | Median |
| 20 | 14% | 28% | |
| 21 | 6% | 14% | |
| 22 | 5% | 8% | |
| 23 | 2% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.4% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 4% | 98% | |
| 16 | 10% | 94% | |
| 17 | 16% | 84% | |
| 18 | 19% | 68% | Median |
| 19 | 20% | 49% | |
| 20 | 13% | 30% | |
| 21 | 9% | 17% | |
| 22 | 5% | 7% | |
| 23 | 2% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 109 | 100% | 105–113 | 103–114 | 102–115 | 100–117 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 107 | 100% | 102–111 | 101–112 | 101–113 | 98–115 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 106 | 100% | 102–111 | 101–112 | 100–113 | 98–115 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 88 | 13% | 84–92 | 82–93 | 81–94 | 79–96 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 88 | 13% | 84–92 | 82–93 | 81–94 | 79–96 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 103 | 77 | 0% | 72–81 | 71–82 | 70–83 | 68–85 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 62 | 74 | 0% | 70–78 | 69–80 | 68–81 | 66–83 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 69 | 0% | 65–73 | 64–74 | 63–76 | 61–78 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 37 | 0% | 34–41 | 33–42 | 32–43 | 31–44 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 98 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 101 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 102 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 103 | 3% | 97% | |
| 104 | 4% | 94% | |
| 105 | 7% | 90% | |
| 106 | 9% | 83% | |
| 107 | 12% | 74% | |
| 108 | 11% | 62% | Median |
| 109 | 12% | 51% | |
| 110 | 12% | 38% | |
| 111 | 9% | 27% | |
| 112 | 7% | 18% | |
| 113 | 5% | 11% | Last Result |
| 114 | 3% | 6% | |
| 115 | 2% | 4% | |
| 116 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 117 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 99 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 100 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 101 | 3% | 98% | |
| 102 | 4% | 94% | |
| 103 | 5% | 90% | |
| 104 | 11% | 85% | |
| 105 | 8% | 74% | |
| 106 | 12% | 65% | Median |
| 107 | 15% | 54% | |
| 108 | 9% | 39% | |
| 109 | 10% | 29% | |
| 110 | 8% | 19% | |
| 111 | 4% | 11% | |
| 112 | 5% | 8% | |
| 113 | 2% | 3% | |
| 114 | 0.8% | 2% | Last Result |
| 115 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 99 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 100 | 2% | 98% | |
| 101 | 3% | 97% | |
| 102 | 6% | 94% | |
| 103 | 7% | 88% | |
| 104 | 10% | 81% | |
| 105 | 10% | 72% | |
| 106 | 13% | 61% | Median |
| 107 | 11% | 48% | |
| 108 | 10% | 37% | |
| 109 | 10% | 26% | |
| 110 | 6% | 17% | |
| 111 | 5% | 10% | |
| 112 | 2% | 5% | |
| 113 | 2% | 3% | |
| 114 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 115 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 80 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 81 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 82 | 3% | 97% | |
| 83 | 4% | 95% | |
| 84 | 7% | 91% | |
| 85 | 8% | 84% | |
| 86 | 10% | 76% | |
| 87 | 13% | 66% | Median |
| 88 | 11% | 53% | |
| 89 | 11% | 42% | |
| 90 | 10% | 31% | |
| 91 | 8% | 21% | |
| 92 | 6% | 13% | Majority |
| 93 | 3% | 7% | |
| 94 | 2% | 4% | |
| 95 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 96 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 80 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 81 | 1.3% | 98.7% | |
| 82 | 3% | 97% | |
| 83 | 4% | 95% | |
| 84 | 6% | 90% | |
| 85 | 8% | 84% | |
| 86 | 10% | 76% | |
| 87 | 11% | 66% | |
| 88 | 13% | 55% | Median |
| 89 | 11% | 42% | |
| 90 | 10% | 31% | |
| 91 | 9% | 22% | |
| 92 | 5% | 13% | Majority |
| 93 | 4% | 8% | |
| 94 | 2% | 4% | |
| 95 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 96 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 69 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 70 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 71 | 2% | 97% | |
| 72 | 5% | 95% | |
| 73 | 6% | 90% | |
| 74 | 10% | 83% | |
| 75 | 10% | 74% | |
| 76 | 11% | 63% | Median |
| 77 | 13% | 52% | |
| 78 | 10% | 39% | |
| 79 | 10% | 28% | |
| 80 | 7% | 19% | |
| 81 | 6% | 12% | |
| 82 | 3% | 6% | |
| 83 | 2% | 3% | |
| 84 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 85 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 67 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 68 | 2% | 98% | |
| 69 | 3% | 96% | |
| 70 | 5% | 94% | |
| 71 | 7% | 89% | |
| 72 | 9% | 82% | |
| 73 | 12% | 73% | |
| 74 | 12% | 62% | Median |
| 75 | 11% | 49% | |
| 76 | 12% | 38% | |
| 77 | 9% | 26% | |
| 78 | 7% | 17% | |
| 79 | 4% | 10% | |
| 80 | 3% | 6% | |
| 81 | 2% | 3% | |
| 82 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 83 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 63 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 64 | 3% | 97% | |
| 65 | 6% | 94% | |
| 66 | 7% | 88% | |
| 67 | 9% | 81% | |
| 68 | 11% | 71% | |
| 69 | 13% | 60% | Median |
| 70 | 11% | 47% | |
| 71 | 10% | 36% | |
| 72 | 10% | 25% | |
| 73 | 6% | 16% | |
| 74 | 4% | 9% | |
| 75 | 2% | 5% | |
| 76 | 2% | 3% | |
| 77 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 78 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 33 | 4% | 97% | |
| 34 | 7% | 93% | |
| 35 | 10% | 86% | |
| 36 | 11% | 76% | |
| 37 | 16% | 64% | Median |
| 38 | 15% | 49% | |
| 39 | 13% | 33% | |
| 40 | 9% | 20% | |
| 41 | 5% | 11% | |
| 42 | 3% | 6% | |
| 43 | 2% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Unique Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 31 May–5 June 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.87%