Opinion Poll by SORA for ORF, 31 May–10 June 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 31.5% 38.0% 36.2–39.9% 35.6–40.5% 35.2–40.9% 34.3–41.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 26.9% 21.0% 19.5–22.7% 19.1–23.2% 18.7–23.6% 18.0–24.4%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 26.0% 18.0% 16.6–19.6% 16.2–20.0% 15.8–20.4% 15.2–21.2%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 3.8% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.5–13.8% 10.2–14.1% 9.7–14.8%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 5.3% 8.0% 7.0–9.1% 6.8–9.5% 6.5–9.8% 6.1–10.3%
JETZT–Liste Pilz 4.4% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 72 69–76 67–76 67–77 65–79
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 40 37–43 36–44 35–44 34–46
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 51 34 31–37 30–38 30–38 28–40
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 0 23 20–25 20–26 19–26 18–28
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 10 15 13–17 12–18 12–18 11–19
JETZT–Liste Pilz 8 0 0 0 0 0

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.7% 99.6%  
66 1.4% 99.0%  
67 3% 98%  
68 5% 95%  
69 8% 90%  
70 11% 82%  
71 14% 72%  
72 15% 58% Median
73 14% 43%  
74 12% 30%  
75 8% 18%  
76 5% 10%  
77 2% 5%  
78 1.4% 2%  
79 0.6% 1.0%  
80 0.3% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 0.9% 99.7%  
35 2% 98.8%  
36 5% 96%  
37 9% 91%  
38 14% 82%  
39 16% 68%  
40 17% 53% Median
41 14% 36%  
42 10% 22%  
43 6% 11%  
44 3% 5%  
45 1.3% 2%  
46 0.5% 0.7%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 1.4% 99.5%  
30 4% 98%  
31 8% 94%  
32 13% 86%  
33 17% 73%  
34 17% 56% Median
35 15% 39%  
36 12% 23%  
37 7% 12%  
38 3% 5%  
39 1.2% 2%  
40 0.5% 0.7%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Last Result

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.2% 100%  
18 1.0% 99.8%  
19 3% 98.8%  
20 9% 95%  
21 16% 87%  
22 21% 71%  
23 20% 50% Median
24 15% 30%  
25 8% 15%  
26 4% 6%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.4% 0.6%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100% Last Result
11 1.0% 99.9%  
12 5% 98.9%  
13 14% 94%  
14 24% 80%  
15 23% 57% Median
16 18% 34%  
17 10% 15%  
18 4% 6%  
19 1.1% 1.4%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

JETZT–Liste Pilz

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 114 112 100% 108–115 107–116 106–117 104–119
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 110 100% 106–113 105–114 104–115 102–116
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 113 106 100% 102–110 101–111 100–111 99–113
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 95 86% 91–98 90–99 89–100 87–102
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 87 5% 83–90 82–91 81–92 79–94
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 62 77 0% 73–81 72–82 72–83 70–84
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 103 73 0% 70–77 69–78 68–79 67–81
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 72 0% 69–76 67–76 67–77 65–79
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 52 62 0% 59–66 58–67 57–68 55–69
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 40 0% 37–43 36–44 35–44 34–46

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.4% 99.8%  
105 0.8% 99.4%  
106 2% 98.6%  
107 4% 97%  
108 6% 93%  
109 8% 87%  
110 12% 79%  
111 13% 67%  
112 16% 54% Median
113 11% 37%  
114 12% 27% Last Result
115 6% 15%  
116 5% 9%  
117 2% 4%  
118 1.1% 2%  
119 0.4% 0.6%  
120 0.2% 0.2%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100% Majority
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 100%  
101 0.2% 99.9%  
102 0.5% 99.7%  
103 1.1% 99.2%  
104 2% 98%  
105 4% 96%  
106 6% 92%  
107 9% 86%  
108 13% 77%  
109 14% 64%  
110 15% 50% Median
111 13% 35%  
112 10% 23%  
113 6% 13%  
114 3% 7%  
115 2% 3%  
116 0.8% 1.3%  
117 0.3% 0.5%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0.1% 100%  
98 0.3% 99.8%  
99 0.8% 99.6%  
100 2% 98.8%  
101 3% 97%  
102 6% 94%  
103 8% 88%  
104 11% 80%  
105 14% 69%  
106 14% 56% Median
107 12% 42%  
108 11% 30%  
109 8% 18%  
110 5% 10%  
111 3% 5%  
112 1.3% 2%  
113 0.6% 0.9% Last Result
114 0.2% 0.3%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 100%  
86 0.2% 99.9%  
87 0.4% 99.8%  
88 1.0% 99.3%  
89 2% 98%  
90 4% 96%  
91 6% 92%  
92 9% 86% Majority
93 11% 77%  
94 15% 65%  
95 13% 51% Median
96 13% 38%  
97 10% 25%  
98 7% 15%  
99 4% 8%  
100 2% 4%  
101 1.1% 2%  
102 0.5% 0.7%  
103 0.2% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.8%  
80 0.8% 99.5%  
81 2% 98.6%  
82 3% 97%  
83 5% 94%  
84 8% 89%  
85 11% 81%  
86 14% 70%  
87 15% 57% Median
88 13% 41%  
89 11% 28%  
90 8% 17%  
91 5% 9%  
92 2% 5% Majority
93 1.3% 2%  
94 0.6% 0.9%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.6% 99.7%  
71 1.3% 99.1%  
72 3% 98%  
73 5% 95%  
74 8% 90%  
75 11% 82%  
76 12% 70%  
77 14% 58%  
78 14% 44% Median
79 11% 31%  
80 8% 20%  
81 6% 12%  
82 3% 6%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.8% 1.2%  
85 0.3% 0.4%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.8%  
67 0.8% 99.5%  
68 2% 98.7%  
69 3% 97%  
70 6% 93%  
71 10% 87%  
72 13% 77%  
73 15% 65%  
74 14% 50% Median
75 13% 36%  
76 9% 23%  
77 6% 14%  
78 4% 8%  
79 2% 4%  
80 1.1% 2%  
81 0.5% 0.8%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.7% 99.6%  
66 1.4% 99.0%  
67 3% 98%  
68 5% 95%  
69 8% 90%  
70 11% 82%  
71 14% 72%  
72 15% 58% Median
73 14% 43%  
74 12% 30%  
75 8% 18%  
76 5% 10%  
77 2% 5%  
78 1.4% 2%  
79 0.6% 1.0%  
80 0.3% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100% Last Result
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.8%  
56 1.1% 99.4%  
57 2% 98%  
58 5% 96%  
59 7% 91%  
60 10% 84%  
61 13% 74%  
62 15% 61%  
63 14% 46% Median
64 12% 32%  
65 9% 20%  
66 6% 12%  
67 3% 6%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.6% 1.0%  
70 0.3% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 0.9% 99.7%  
35 2% 98.8%  
36 5% 96%  
37 9% 91%  
38 14% 82%  
39 16% 68%  
40 17% 53% Median
41 14% 36%  
42 10% 22%  
43 6% 11%  
44 3% 5%  
45 1.3% 2%  
46 0.5% 0.7%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations