Opinion Poll by Research Affairs for ÖSTERREICH, 14–20 June 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 38.0% | 36.0–40.0% | 35.5–40.5% | 35.0–41.0% | 34.1–42.0% | 
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 23.0% | 21.4–24.8% | 20.9–25.3% | 20.5–25.7% | 19.8–26.6% | 
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 17.0% | 15.6–18.7% | 15.2–19.1% | 14.8–19.5% | 14.2–20.3% | 
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 10.0% | 8.8–11.3% | 8.5–11.7% | 8.3–12.0% | 7.8–12.7% | 
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.4–9.8% | 6.0–10.4% | 
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% | 
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 73 | 69–76 | 68–78 | 67–78 | 65–80 | 
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 44 | 41–47 | 40–48 | 39–49 | 38–51 | 
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 32 | 30–35 | 29–36 | 28–37 | 27–39 | 
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 19 | 17–21 | 16–22 | 15–23 | 14–24 | 
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 15 | 13–17 | 12–18 | 12–18 | 11–20 | 
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98% | |
| 68 | 4% | 96% | |
| 69 | 6% | 92% | |
| 70 | 9% | 86% | |
| 71 | 13% | 78% | |
| 72 | 12% | 65% | |
| 73 | 14% | 53% | Median | 
| 74 | 13% | 39% | |
| 75 | 10% | 27% | |
| 76 | 7% | 17% | |
| 77 | 5% | 10% | |
| 78 | 3% | 5% | |
| 79 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | 
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 39 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 40 | 5% | 96% | |
| 41 | 8% | 91% | |
| 42 | 11% | 83% | |
| 43 | 14% | 71% | |
| 44 | 16% | 57% | Median | 
| 45 | 14% | 41% | |
| 46 | 11% | 27% | |
| 47 | 8% | 16% | |
| 48 | 4% | 8% | |
| 49 | 2% | 4% | |
| 50 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result | 
| 53 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | 
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 29 | 6% | 96% | |
| 30 | 10% | 90% | |
| 31 | 15% | 80% | |
| 32 | 17% | 66% | Median | 
| 33 | 17% | 49% | |
| 34 | 14% | 32% | |
| 35 | 9% | 18% | |
| 36 | 5% | 9% | |
| 37 | 2% | 4% | |
| 38 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 16 | 7% | 97% | |
| 17 | 14% | 90% | |
| 18 | 20% | 76% | |
| 19 | 21% | 56% | Median | 
| 20 | 17% | 35% | |
| 21 | 10% | 18% | |
| 22 | 5% | 8% | |
| 23 | 2% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | 
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 11 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 5% | 98.8% | |
| 13 | 11% | 94% | |
| 14 | 21% | 83% | |
| 15 | 24% | 61% | Median | 
| 16 | 18% | 37% | |
| 17 | 12% | 19% | |
| 18 | 5% | 7% | |
| 19 | 2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | 
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median | 
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 117 | 100% | 113–120 | 112–121 | 111–122 | 109–124 | 
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 107 | 100% | 103–110 | 102–111 | 101–112 | 99–114 | 
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 105 | 100% | 101–109 | 100–110 | 99–111 | 97–113 | 
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 92 | 51% | 88–95 | 87–97 | 86–97 | 84–99 | 
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 88 | 10% | 84–92 | 83–93 | 82–94 | 80–95 | 
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 62 | 78 | 0% | 74–82 | 73–83 | 72–84 | 70–86 | 
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 76 | 0% | 73–80 | 72–81 | 71–82 | 69–84 | 
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 73 | 0% | 69–76 | 68–78 | 67–78 | 65–80 | 
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 44 | 0% | 41–47 | 40–48 | 39–49 | 38–51 | 
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 107 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 110 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 111 | 2% | 98% | |
| 112 | 4% | 96% | |
| 113 | 6% | 92% | |
| 114 | 9% | 86% | Last Result | 
| 115 | 12% | 77% | |
| 116 | 13% | 65% | |
| 117 | 13% | 53% | Median | 
| 118 | 13% | 39% | |
| 119 | 10% | 26% | |
| 120 | 7% | 16% | |
| 121 | 5% | 9% | |
| 122 | 2% | 4% | |
| 123 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 124 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | 
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | Majority | 
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 100 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 101 | 2% | 98% | |
| 102 | 4% | 96% | |
| 103 | 6% | 92% | |
| 104 | 10% | 85% | |
| 105 | 11% | 76% | |
| 106 | 13% | 64% | |
| 107 | 13% | 51% | Median | 
| 108 | 12% | 38% | |
| 109 | 9% | 26% | |
| 110 | 7% | 16% | |
| 111 | 4% | 9% | |
| 112 | 3% | 5% | |
| 113 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 114 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | 
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 98 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 99 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 100 | 3% | 97% | |
| 101 | 5% | 94% | |
| 102 | 7% | 89% | |
| 103 | 10% | 82% | |
| 104 | 12% | 71% | |
| 105 | 14% | 59% | Median | 
| 106 | 13% | 46% | |
| 107 | 11% | 33% | |
| 108 | 8% | 22% | |
| 109 | 6% | 13% | |
| 110 | 3% | 7% | |
| 111 | 2% | 3% | |
| 112 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 0.6% | Last Result | 
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | 
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 84 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 85 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 86 | 2% | 98% | |
| 87 | 5% | 96% | |
| 88 | 6% | 91% | |
| 89 | 10% | 85% | |
| 90 | 11% | 75% | |
| 91 | 13% | 64% | |
| 92 | 13% | 51% | Median, Majority | 
| 93 | 12% | 38% | |
| 94 | 10% | 26% | |
| 95 | 6% | 16% | |
| 96 | 4% | 10% | |
| 97 | 3% | 5% | |
| 98 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 99 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | 
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 81 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 82 | 2% | 98% | |
| 83 | 4% | 96% | |
| 84 | 6% | 92% | |
| 85 | 8% | 86% | |
| 86 | 13% | 78% | |
| 87 | 12% | 65% | |
| 88 | 14% | 53% | Median | 
| 89 | 12% | 39% | |
| 90 | 10% | 28% | |
| 91 | 8% | 18% | |
| 92 | 5% | 10% | Majority | 
| 93 | 3% | 6% | |
| 94 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 95 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | 
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 71 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 72 | 2% | 98% | |
| 73 | 3% | 96% | |
| 74 | 6% | 93% | |
| 75 | 8% | 87% | |
| 76 | 11% | 78% | |
| 77 | 13% | 67% | |
| 78 | 14% | 54% | Median | 
| 79 | 12% | 40% | |
| 80 | 10% | 28% | |
| 81 | 7% | 18% | |
| 82 | 5% | 11% | |
| 83 | 3% | 6% | |
| 84 | 2% | 3% | |
| 85 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | 
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 70 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 71 | 3% | 98% | |
| 72 | 4% | 95% | |
| 73 | 7% | 91% | |
| 74 | 9% | 84% | |
| 75 | 12% | 74% | |
| 76 | 13% | 62% | Median | 
| 77 | 13% | 49% | |
| 78 | 11% | 36% | |
| 79 | 10% | 24% | |
| 80 | 6% | 15% | |
| 81 | 4% | 8% | |
| 82 | 2% | 4% | |
| 83 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority | 
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Österreichische Volkspartei

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98% | |
| 68 | 4% | 96% | |
| 69 | 6% | 92% | |
| 70 | 9% | 86% | |
| 71 | 13% | 78% | |
| 72 | 12% | 65% | |
| 73 | 14% | 53% | Median | 
| 74 | 13% | 39% | |
| 75 | 10% | 27% | |
| 76 | 7% | 17% | |
| 77 | 5% | 10% | |
| 78 | 3% | 5% | |
| 79 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | 
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 39 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 40 | 5% | 96% | |
| 41 | 8% | 91% | |
| 42 | 11% | 83% | |
| 43 | 14% | 71% | |
| 44 | 16% | 57% | Median | 
| 45 | 14% | 41% | |
| 46 | 11% | 27% | |
| 47 | 8% | 16% | |
| 48 | 4% | 8% | |
| 49 | 2% | 4% | |
| 50 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result | 
| 53 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | 
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Research Affairs
 - Commissioner(s): ÖSTERREICH
 - Fieldwork period: 14–20 June 2019
 
Calculations
- Sample size: 1003
 - Simulations done: 1,048,576
 - Error estimate: 0.90%