Opinion Poll by Peter Hajek for ATV, 24–28 June 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 31.5% 38.0% 35.8–40.2% 35.2–40.9% 34.7–41.4% 33.7–42.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 26.9% 20.0% 18.3–21.9% 17.8–22.5% 17.4–22.9% 16.6–23.9%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 26.0% 20.0% 18.3–21.9% 17.8–22.5% 17.4–22.9% 16.6–23.9%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 3.8% 11.0% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–13.0% 9.0–13.4% 8.4–14.1%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 5.3% 9.0% 7.8–10.4% 7.5–10.8% 7.2–11.2% 6.7–11.9%
JETZT–Liste Pilz 4.4% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.4–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 71 67–75 66–76 65–78 63–80
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 37 34–41 33–42 32–43 31–44
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 51 37 34–41 33–42 32–43 31–44
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 0 20 18–23 17–24 17–25 15–26
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 10 16 14–19 14–20 13–21 12–22
JETZT–Liste Pilz 8 0 0 0 0 0

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
63 0.5% 99.7%  
64 1.1% 99.2%  
65 2% 98%  
66 3% 96%  
67 6% 93%  
68 6% 87%  
69 11% 81%  
70 11% 70%  
71 13% 59% Median
72 11% 47%  
73 10% 35%  
74 11% 26%  
75 4% 14%  
76 5% 10%  
77 2% 5%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.6% 1.2%  
80 0.3% 0.6%  
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 0.7% 99.6%  
32 2% 98.9%  
33 4% 97%  
34 7% 93%  
35 11% 86%  
36 13% 76%  
37 15% 63% Median
38 15% 48%  
39 12% 33%  
40 10% 21%  
41 6% 12%  
42 3% 6%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.8% 1.3%  
45 0.3% 0.5%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 0.8% 99.7%  
32 2% 98.8%  
33 4% 97%  
34 7% 93%  
35 10% 86%  
36 14% 75%  
37 16% 62% Median
38 14% 46%  
39 12% 33%  
40 9% 21%  
41 5% 12%  
42 3% 6%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.8% 1.3%  
45 0.3% 0.5%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Last Result

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.5% 99.9%  
16 2% 99.4%  
17 5% 98%  
18 10% 93%  
19 17% 82%  
20 20% 65% Median
21 17% 45%  
22 12% 28%  
23 8% 16%  
24 5% 8%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.6% 0.9%  
27 0.2% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0.2% 100%  
12 0.8% 99.8%  
13 3% 99.0%  
14 8% 96%  
15 18% 89%  
16 21% 70% Median
17 19% 50%  
18 13% 31%  
19 10% 18%  
20 5% 8%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.5% 0.7%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

JETZT–Liste Pilz

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 108 100% 104–112 103–114 102–115 100–117
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 113 109 100% 104–113 103–114 102–115 100–117
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 114 109 100% 104–113 103–114 102–115 100–117
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 92 52% 87–96 86–97 85–98 83–100
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 88 13% 84–92 82–93 81–94 79–96
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 62 74 0% 70–79 69–80 68–81 66–83
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 103 75 0% 71–79 69–80 68–81 66–83
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 71 0% 67–75 66–76 65–78 63–80
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 52 58 0% 54–62 53–63 52–64 50–66
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 37 0% 34–41 33–42 32–43 31–44

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100% Majority
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.2% 99.9%  
100 0.5% 99.6%  
101 1.1% 99.2%  
102 2% 98%  
103 3% 96%  
104 4% 93%  
105 9% 89%  
106 9% 80%  
107 11% 71% Median
108 13% 60%  
109 13% 47%  
110 9% 34%  
111 9% 25%  
112 6% 16%  
113 5% 10%  
114 3% 5%  
115 1.3% 3%  
116 0.9% 1.4%  
117 0.3% 0.5%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0.1% 100%  
99 0.2% 99.9%  
100 0.4% 99.7%  
101 0.9% 99.3%  
102 2% 98%  
103 3% 97%  
104 5% 94%  
105 6% 89%  
106 9% 83%  
107 11% 74%  
108 12% 64% Median
109 12% 52%  
110 12% 40%  
111 10% 28%  
112 7% 18%  
113 5% 11% Last Result
114 3% 6%  
115 2% 3%  
116 0.9% 2%  
117 0.4% 0.7%  
118 0.2% 0.3%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0.1% 100%  
99 0.2% 99.9%  
100 0.4% 99.7%  
101 1.0% 99.3%  
102 2% 98%  
103 3% 97%  
104 4% 94%  
105 7% 90%  
106 9% 83%  
107 10% 74%  
108 11% 64% Median
109 12% 53%  
110 11% 41%  
111 11% 30%  
112 9% 19%  
113 4% 11%  
114 3% 6% Last Result
115 2% 3%  
116 0.9% 2%  
117 0.4% 0.7%  
118 0.2% 0.3%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.4% 99.7%  
84 0.8% 99.3%  
85 2% 98.5%  
86 3% 97%  
87 4% 94%  
88 6% 90%  
89 9% 83%  
90 11% 75%  
91 12% 64% Median
92 13% 52% Majority
93 11% 39%  
94 10% 28%  
95 7% 19%  
96 5% 12%  
97 3% 7%  
98 2% 4%  
99 1.0% 2%  
100 0.5% 0.9%  
101 0.2% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.4% 99.8%  
80 0.7% 99.4%  
81 1.3% 98.8%  
82 3% 97%  
83 4% 95%  
84 5% 91%  
85 9% 85%  
86 10% 76%  
87 12% 67% Median
88 13% 55%  
89 11% 42%  
90 9% 31%  
91 9% 22%  
92 5% 13% Majority
93 3% 8%  
94 3% 5%  
95 1.1% 2%  
96 0.6% 1.0%  
97 0.3% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.4% 99.7%  
67 0.9% 99.3%  
68 2% 98%  
69 3% 97%  
70 5% 94%  
71 7% 89%  
72 10% 82%  
73 12% 72% Median
74 12% 60%  
75 12% 48%  
76 11% 36%  
77 9% 26%  
78 6% 17%  
79 5% 11%  
80 3% 6%  
81 2% 3%  
82 0.9% 2%  
83 0.4% 0.7%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.8%  
67 0.9% 99.5%  
68 1.3% 98.6%  
69 3% 97%  
70 5% 95%  
71 6% 90%  
72 9% 84%  
73 9% 75%  
74 13% 66% Median
75 13% 53%  
76 11% 40%  
77 9% 29%  
78 9% 20%  
79 4% 11%  
80 3% 7%  
81 2% 4%  
82 1.1% 2%  
83 0.5% 0.8%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
63 0.5% 99.7%  
64 1.1% 99.2%  
65 2% 98%  
66 3% 96%  
67 6% 93%  
68 6% 87%  
69 11% 81%  
70 11% 70%  
71 13% 59% Median
72 11% 47%  
73 10% 35%  
74 11% 26%  
75 4% 14%  
76 5% 10%  
77 2% 5%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.6% 1.2%  
80 0.3% 0.6%  
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.5% 99.7%  
51 1.2% 99.2%  
52 2% 98% Last Result
53 4% 96%  
54 6% 92%  
55 9% 86%  
56 11% 77%  
57 13% 66% Median
58 12% 53%  
59 13% 40%  
60 9% 28%  
61 7% 19%  
62 5% 11%  
63 3% 6%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.9% 2%  
66 0.4% 0.7%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 0.7% 99.6%  
32 2% 98.9%  
33 4% 97%  
34 7% 93%  
35 11% 86%  
36 13% 76%  
37 15% 63% Median
38 15% 48%  
39 12% 33%  
40 10% 21%  
41 6% 12%  
42 3% 6%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.8% 1.3%  
45 0.3% 0.5%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations