Opinion Poll by Research Affairs for ÖSTERREICH, 27 June–4 July 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 37.0% | 35.1–39.0% | 34.6–39.6% | 34.1–40.1% | 33.2–41.0% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 22.0% | 20.3–23.7% | 19.9–24.2% | 19.5–24.6% | 18.7–25.5% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 18.0% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.7–20.5% | 15.0–21.3% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 11.0% | 9.8–12.3% | 9.5–12.7% | 9.2–13.1% | 8.6–13.7% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.5–9.8% | 6.0–10.4% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 71 | 67–75 | 66–76 | 65–77 | 64–79 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 42 | 39–45 | 38–46 | 37–47 | 36–49 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 34 | 32–37 | 30–39 | 30–39 | 29–41 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 21 | 18–23 | 18–24 | 17–25 | 16–26 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 15 | 13–17 | 12–18 | 12–18 | 11–20 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 66 | 3% | 97% | |
| 67 | 6% | 94% | |
| 68 | 8% | 88% | |
| 69 | 12% | 80% | |
| 70 | 12% | 68% | |
| 71 | 14% | 56% | Median |
| 72 | 13% | 42% | |
| 73 | 9% | 29% | |
| 74 | 9% | 19% | |
| 75 | 5% | 11% | |
| 76 | 3% | 6% | |
| 77 | 2% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 37 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 38 | 5% | 96% | |
| 39 | 9% | 92% | |
| 40 | 12% | 83% | |
| 41 | 14% | 71% | |
| 42 | 16% | 57% | Median |
| 43 | 14% | 41% | |
| 44 | 11% | 26% | |
| 45 | 7% | 15% | |
| 46 | 4% | 8% | |
| 47 | 2% | 4% | |
| 48 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 3% | 98% | |
| 31 | 3% | 95% | |
| 32 | 20% | 92% | |
| 33 | 3% | 72% | |
| 34 | 30% | 69% | Median |
| 35 | 9% | 39% | |
| 36 | 12% | 30% | |
| 37 | 12% | 19% | |
| 38 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 39 | 4% | 5% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 41 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 18 | 7% | 96% | |
| 19 | 14% | 89% | |
| 20 | 19% | 75% | |
| 21 | 20% | 56% | Median |
| 22 | 17% | 35% | |
| 23 | 10% | 19% | |
| 24 | 5% | 8% | |
| 25 | 2% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 13 | 12% | 94% | |
| 14 | 20% | 82% | |
| 15 | 24% | 62% | Median |
| 16 | 19% | 38% | |
| 17 | 12% | 19% | |
| 18 | 5% | 7% | |
| 19 | 2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 113 | 100% | 109–117 | 108–118 | 107–119 | 105–120 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 107 | 100% | 103–111 | 102–112 | 101–113 | 99–114 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 105 | 100% | 101–109 | 100–110 | 99–111 | 98–113 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 92 | 54% | 88–96 | 87–97 | 86–98 | 84–99 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 86 | 3% | 82–90 | 81–91 | 80–92 | 78–94 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 62 | 78 | 0% | 74–82 | 73–83 | 72–84 | 70–85 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 76 | 0% | 72–80 | 71–81 | 70–82 | 69–84 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 71 | 0% | 67–75 | 66–76 | 65–77 | 64–79 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 42 | 0% | 39–45 | 38–46 | 37–47 | 36–49 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 106 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 107 | 2% | 98% | |
| 108 | 4% | 97% | |
| 109 | 6% | 93% | |
| 110 | 8% | 87% | |
| 111 | 12% | 79% | |
| 112 | 13% | 68% | |
| 113 | 13% | 55% | Median |
| 114 | 13% | 42% | Last Result |
| 115 | 10% | 28% | |
| 116 | 8% | 19% | |
| 117 | 5% | 11% | |
| 118 | 3% | 5% | |
| 119 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 120 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 100 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 101 | 2% | 98% | |
| 102 | 4% | 96% | |
| 103 | 5% | 93% | |
| 104 | 9% | 87% | |
| 105 | 12% | 78% | |
| 106 | 12% | 67% | |
| 107 | 14% | 55% | Median |
| 108 | 12% | 40% | |
| 109 | 11% | 28% | |
| 110 | 8% | 18% | |
| 111 | 5% | 10% | |
| 112 | 3% | 5% | |
| 113 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 114 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 115 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 98 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 99 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 100 | 3% | 97% | |
| 101 | 5% | 94% | |
| 102 | 8% | 89% | |
| 103 | 10% | 82% | |
| 104 | 12% | 72% | |
| 105 | 13% | 59% | Median |
| 106 | 14% | 47% | |
| 107 | 11% | 33% | |
| 108 | 9% | 22% | |
| 109 | 5% | 13% | |
| 110 | 4% | 7% | |
| 111 | 2% | 3% | |
| 112 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 114 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 84 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 85 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 86 | 2% | 98% | |
| 87 | 4% | 96% | |
| 88 | 6% | 92% | |
| 89 | 8% | 86% | |
| 90 | 12% | 78% | |
| 91 | 12% | 66% | |
| 92 | 14% | 54% | Median, Majority |
| 93 | 12% | 40% | |
| 94 | 10% | 28% | |
| 95 | 8% | 18% | |
| 96 | 5% | 10% | |
| 97 | 3% | 6% | |
| 98 | 2% | 3% | |
| 99 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 79 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 80 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 81 | 3% | 97% | |
| 82 | 6% | 93% | |
| 83 | 9% | 88% | |
| 84 | 10% | 79% | |
| 85 | 13% | 69% | |
| 86 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 87 | 12% | 43% | |
| 88 | 11% | 31% | |
| 89 | 8% | 20% | |
| 90 | 5% | 12% | |
| 91 | 3% | 7% | |
| 92 | 2% | 3% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 94 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 71 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 72 | 2% | 98% | |
| 73 | 4% | 96% | |
| 74 | 5% | 93% | |
| 75 | 9% | 87% | |
| 76 | 11% | 78% | |
| 77 | 14% | 67% | |
| 78 | 13% | 53% | Median |
| 79 | 12% | 41% | |
| 80 | 10% | 28% | |
| 81 | 8% | 18% | |
| 82 | 5% | 11% | |
| 83 | 3% | 6% | |
| 84 | 2% | 3% | |
| 85 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 70 | 1.5% | 98.9% | |
| 71 | 3% | 97% | |
| 72 | 5% | 95% | |
| 73 | 8% | 90% | |
| 74 | 11% | 82% | |
| 75 | 12% | 71% | |
| 76 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 77 | 12% | 45% | |
| 78 | 12% | 33% | |
| 79 | 9% | 22% | |
| 80 | 5% | 13% | |
| 81 | 4% | 7% | |
| 82 | 2% | 4% | |
| 83 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 66 | 3% | 97% | |
| 67 | 6% | 94% | |
| 68 | 8% | 88% | |
| 69 | 12% | 80% | |
| 70 | 12% | 68% | |
| 71 | 14% | 56% | Median |
| 72 | 13% | 42% | |
| 73 | 9% | 29% | |
| 74 | 9% | 19% | |
| 75 | 5% | 11% | |
| 76 | 3% | 6% | |
| 77 | 2% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 37 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 38 | 5% | 96% | |
| 39 | 9% | 92% | |
| 40 | 12% | 83% | |
| 41 | 14% | 71% | |
| 42 | 16% | 57% | Median |
| 43 | 14% | 41% | |
| 44 | 11% | 26% | |
| 45 | 7% | 15% | |
| 46 | 4% | 8% | |
| 47 | 2% | 4% | |
| 48 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Research Affairs
- Commissioner(s): ÖSTERREICH
- Fieldwork period: 27 June–4 July 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1002
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.40%