Opinion Poll by Research Affairs for ÖSTERREICH, 5–17 July 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 31.5% 37.0% 35.1–39.0% 34.6–39.6% 34.1–40.1% 33.2–41.0%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 26.9% 22.0% 20.3–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.6% 18.7–25.5%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 26.0% 19.0% 17.4–20.6% 17.0–21.1% 16.6–21.5% 15.9–22.3%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 3.8% 12.0% 10.7–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.1% 9.5–14.8%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 5.3% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
JETZT–Liste Pilz 4.4% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 70 66–74 65–75 65–76 63–78
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 41 38–45 37–46 37–46 35–48
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 51 36 33–39 32–40 31–41 30–42
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 0 22 20–25 19–26 19–27 18–28
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 10 13 11–15 11–16 10–16 9–17
JETZT–Liste Pilz 8 0 0 0 0 0

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
63 0.6% 99.6%  
64 1.3% 99.0%  
65 3% 98%  
66 5% 95%  
67 7% 90%  
68 10% 83%  
69 13% 72%  
70 14% 59% Median
71 14% 46%  
72 11% 32%  
73 9% 21%  
74 6% 13%  
75 3% 7%  
76 2% 4%  
77 0.9% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.6%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.8%  
36 1.4% 99.4%  
37 3% 98%  
38 6% 95%  
39 10% 89%  
40 14% 79%  
41 15% 65% Median
42 16% 50%  
43 14% 34%  
44 9% 20%  
45 6% 12%  
46 3% 6%  
47 1.4% 2%  
48 0.7% 1.0%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.8% 99.7%  
31 2% 98.9%  
32 5% 97%  
33 8% 92%  
34 13% 84%  
35 16% 71%  
36 16% 55% Median
37 14% 38%  
38 11% 24%  
39 6% 13%  
40 4% 7%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.7% 1.0%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Last Result

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.3% 100%  
18 1.4% 99.7%  
19 5% 98%  
20 10% 94%  
21 17% 83%  
22 19% 67% Median
23 18% 47%  
24 14% 30%  
25 9% 16%  
26 4% 7%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.6% 0.8%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.7% 99.9%  
10 4% 99.3% Last Result
11 12% 95%  
12 22% 84%  
13 26% 62% Median
14 19% 36%  
15 11% 17%  
16 4% 6%  
17 1.3% 2%  
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

JETZT–Liste Pilz

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 114 112 100% 108–115 107–116 106–117 104–119
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 113 106 100% 102–110 101–111 100–112 98–114
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 106 100% 102–109 101–111 100–111 98–113
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 93 65% 89–97 88–98 87–99 85–100
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 83 0.3% 79–87 78–88 77–89 76–91
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 103 77 0% 74–81 72–82 72–83 70–85
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 62 77 0% 73–81 72–82 71–83 69–85
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 70 0% 66–74 65–75 65–76 63–78
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 52 64 0% 60–68 59–69 58–70 57–71
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 41 0% 38–45 37–46 37–46 35–48

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0.1% 100%  
103 0.2% 99.9%  
104 0.5% 99.7%  
105 0.9% 99.3%  
106 2% 98%  
107 4% 96%  
108 6% 92%  
109 9% 86%  
110 11% 78%  
111 14% 66% Median
112 14% 53%  
113 12% 39%  
114 10% 27% Last Result
115 7% 17%  
116 5% 10%  
117 3% 5%  
118 1.3% 2%  
119 0.6% 0.9%  
120 0.2% 0.3%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0.2% 99.9%  
98 0.3% 99.8%  
99 0.9% 99.4%  
100 2% 98.5%  
101 3% 97%  
102 5% 94%  
103 8% 88%  
104 11% 80%  
105 12% 70%  
106 13% 57% Median
107 12% 44%  
108 12% 32%  
109 8% 20%  
110 6% 12%  
111 3% 6%  
112 2% 3%  
113 0.9% 1.4% Last Result
114 0.3% 0.5%  
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100% Majority
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 100%  
97 0.2% 99.9%  
98 0.5% 99.7%  
99 1.1% 99.2%  
100 2% 98%  
101 4% 96%  
102 7% 92%  
103 9% 86%  
104 11% 77%  
105 14% 66% Median
106 13% 52%  
107 12% 39%  
108 10% 27%  
109 7% 17%  
110 5% 10%  
111 3% 5%  
112 1.5% 2%  
113 0.6% 1.0%  
114 0.3% 0.4%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 0.5% 99.7%  
86 1.2% 99.2%  
87 2% 98%  
88 4% 96%  
89 7% 92%  
90 8% 85%  
91 11% 76%  
92 14% 65% Median, Majority
93 12% 51%  
94 13% 40%  
95 9% 27%  
96 7% 17%  
97 5% 10%  
98 3% 5%  
99 1.5% 3%  
100 0.7% 1.2%  
101 0.3% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.3% 99.9%  
76 0.7% 99.5%  
77 2% 98.8%  
78 3% 97%  
79 5% 94%  
80 7% 90%  
81 11% 82%  
82 12% 71%  
83 13% 59% Median
84 13% 46%  
85 12% 33%  
86 7% 21%  
87 6% 14%  
88 4% 8%  
89 2% 4%  
90 1.1% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.7%  
92 0.2% 0.3% Majority
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 0.6% 99.6%  
71 1.5% 99.0%  
72 3% 98%  
73 5% 95%  
74 7% 90%  
75 10% 83%  
76 12% 73%  
77 13% 61% Median
78 14% 48%  
79 11% 34%  
80 9% 23%  
81 7% 14%  
82 4% 8%  
83 2% 4%  
84 1.1% 2%  
85 0.5% 0.8%  
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.8%  
70 0.9% 99.5%  
71 2% 98.6%  
72 3% 97%  
73 6% 94%  
74 8% 88%  
75 12% 80%  
76 12% 68% Median
77 13% 56%  
78 12% 43%  
79 11% 30%  
80 8% 20%  
81 5% 12%  
82 3% 6%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.9% 1.5%  
85 0.3% 0.5%  
86 0.2% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
63 0.6% 99.6%  
64 1.3% 99.0%  
65 3% 98%  
66 5% 95%  
67 7% 90%  
68 10% 83%  
69 13% 72%  
70 14% 59% Median
71 14% 46%  
72 11% 32%  
73 9% 21%  
74 6% 13%  
75 3% 7%  
76 2% 4%  
77 0.9% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.6%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100% Last Result
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 0.6% 99.6%  
58 2% 99.0%  
59 3% 97%  
60 6% 94%  
61 8% 89%  
62 12% 81%  
63 13% 69% Median
64 14% 56%  
65 13% 42%  
66 11% 29%  
67 8% 19%  
68 5% 11%  
69 3% 6%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.8% 1.2%  
72 0.3% 0.5%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.8%  
36 1.4% 99.4%  
37 3% 98%  
38 6% 95%  
39 10% 89%  
40 14% 79%  
41 15% 65% Median
42 16% 50%  
43 14% 34%  
44 9% 20%  
45 6% 12%  
46 3% 6%  
47 1.4% 2%  
48 0.7% 1.0%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations