Opinion Poll by Research Affairs for ÖSTERREICH, 18–24 July 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 31.5% 35.9% 33.2–38.7% 32.5–39.5% 31.8–40.2% 30.6–41.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 26.9% 22.0% 19.8–24.5% 19.2–25.2% 18.6–25.8% 17.6–27.1%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 26.0% 20.0% 17.9–22.5% 17.3–23.2% 16.8–23.8% 15.8–25.0%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 3.8% 11.9% 10.2–13.9% 9.8–14.5% 9.4–15.0% 8.6–16.1%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 5.3% 6.9% 5.7–8.6% 5.3–9.1% 5.0–9.5% 4.5–10.4%
JETZT–Liste Pilz 4.4% 1.0% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1% 0.4–2.3% 0.3–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 68 63–73 61–75 60–76 58–78
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 42 37–46 36–48 35–49 33–51
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 51 38 34–42 32–44 31–45 30–47
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 0 22 19–26 18–27 17–28 16–30
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 10 13 10–16 10–17 9–18 8–19
JETZT–Liste Pilz 8 0 0 0 0 0

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.5% 99.6%  
59 0.9% 99.1%  
60 1.4% 98%  
61 2% 97%  
62 3% 95% Last Result
63 5% 91%  
64 6% 86%  
65 7% 80%  
66 9% 73%  
67 9% 64%  
68 11% 55% Median
69 9% 44%  
70 9% 35%  
71 7% 26%  
72 6% 19%  
73 5% 13%  
74 3% 9%  
75 2% 5%  
76 1.3% 3%  
77 0.8% 2%  
78 0.5% 1.0%  
79 0.3% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.4% 99.7%  
34 0.9% 99.2%  
35 2% 98%  
36 3% 96%  
37 6% 93%  
38 7% 88%  
39 7% 80%  
40 13% 74%  
41 11% 61%  
42 10% 50% Median
43 12% 40%  
44 6% 28%  
45 8% 21%  
46 6% 14%  
47 3% 8%  
48 3% 5%  
49 1.1% 3%  
50 0.6% 1.4%  
51 0.5% 0.8%  
52 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.8%  
30 0.7% 99.5%  
31 1.5% 98.8%  
32 3% 97%  
33 4% 95%  
34 7% 90%  
35 8% 83%  
36 11% 75%  
37 11% 64%  
38 12% 53% Median
39 10% 41%  
40 9% 30%  
41 7% 21%  
42 5% 14%  
43 4% 9%  
44 2% 5%  
45 1.3% 3%  
46 0.8% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.7%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Last Result

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.2% 99.9%  
16 0.8% 99.7%  
17 2% 98.9%  
18 5% 97%  
19 6% 93%  
20 12% 87%  
21 12% 75%  
22 15% 63% Median
23 13% 47%  
24 12% 34%  
25 9% 23%  
26 6% 13%  
27 4% 8%  
28 2% 4%  
29 1.2% 2%  
30 0.4% 0.8%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0.1% 99.9%  
8 0.9% 99.8%  
9 3% 99.0%  
10 7% 96% Last Result
11 13% 88%  
12 17% 75%  
13 18% 58% Median
14 16% 40%  
15 11% 24%  
16 7% 13%  
17 4% 6%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.7% 1.1%  
20 0.3% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

JETZT–Liste Pilz

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 114 109 100% 104–115 103–116 101–118 99–120
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 113 106 100% 100–111 99–113 97–114 95–116
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 104 99.8% 98–109 97–110 95–112 92–114
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 90 40% 85–96 83–97 82–99 80–101
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 81 0.6% 76–86 74–88 73–89 70–92
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 103 79 0.2% 74–85 73–86 71–88 69–90
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 62 77 0% 72–82 70–84 69–85 66–88
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 68 0% 63–73 61–75 60–76 58–78
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 52 64 0% 59–69 58–71 56–72 54–75
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 42 0% 37–46 36–48 35–49 33–51

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0.1% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.2% 99.8%  
99 0.3% 99.6%  
100 0.7% 99.2%  
101 1.2% 98.6%  
102 2% 97%  
103 3% 95%  
104 4% 92%  
105 5% 89%  
106 6% 84%  
107 8% 78%  
108 9% 70%  
109 11% 61%  
110 9% 50% Median
111 8% 41%  
112 7% 32%  
113 7% 25%  
114 6% 18% Last Result
115 5% 12%  
116 3% 7%  
117 2% 4%  
118 1.0% 3%  
119 0.7% 1.5%  
120 0.4% 0.8%  
121 0.2% 0.4%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0.1% 100% Majority
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.2% 99.8%  
95 0.4% 99.6%  
96 0.6% 99.3%  
97 1.3% 98.7%  
98 1.4% 97%  
99 3% 96%  
100 4% 93%  
101 4% 90%  
102 8% 85%  
103 6% 78%  
104 10% 72%  
105 8% 62%  
106 10% 53% Median
107 10% 44%  
108 8% 34%  
109 8% 26%  
110 5% 18%  
111 5% 13%  
112 3% 8%  
113 2% 5% Last Result
114 1.4% 3%  
115 0.7% 2%  
116 0.5% 1.0%  
117 0.2% 0.4%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.3% 99.8% Majority
93 0.5% 99.5%  
94 0.8% 99.0%  
95 1.1% 98%  
96 2% 97%  
97 3% 95%  
98 4% 92%  
99 5% 88%  
100 6% 83%  
101 9% 76%  
102 9% 68%  
103 8% 59% Median
104 10% 51%  
105 10% 41%  
106 7% 31%  
107 7% 24%  
108 5% 17%  
109 5% 12%  
110 3% 7%  
111 2% 4%  
112 1.2% 3%  
113 0.7% 1.4%  
114 0.4% 0.7%  
115 0.2% 0.3%  
116 0.1% 0.2%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.8%  
80 0.5% 99.5%  
81 0.7% 99.0%  
82 1.4% 98%  
83 2% 97%  
84 3% 95%  
85 4% 92%  
86 6% 88%  
87 7% 82%  
88 8% 76%  
89 9% 67%  
90 9% 58% Median
91 9% 49%  
92 9% 40% Majority
93 8% 32%  
94 7% 23%  
95 5% 16%  
96 4% 11%  
97 3% 7%  
98 2% 5%  
99 1.2% 3%  
100 0.8% 2%  
101 0.4% 0.8%  
102 0.2% 0.4%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.7%  
71 0.6% 99.4%  
72 0.9% 98.9% Last Result
73 2% 98%  
74 2% 96%  
75 3% 94%  
76 5% 91%  
77 6% 86%  
78 7% 80%  
79 8% 72%  
80 9% 64%  
81 10% 55% Median
82 9% 45%  
83 8% 36%  
84 7% 28%  
85 7% 21%  
86 5% 14%  
87 3% 9%  
88 2% 6%  
89 2% 4%  
90 0.9% 2%  
91 0.6% 1.1%  
92 0.3% 0.6% Majority
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.4% 99.6%  
70 0.7% 99.2%  
71 1.3% 98%  
72 2% 97%  
73 3% 95%  
74 5% 93%  
75 5% 88%  
76 7% 83%  
77 8% 76%  
78 10% 68%  
79 10% 58%  
80 8% 48% Median
81 9% 40%  
82 9% 31%  
83 6% 23%  
84 5% 16%  
85 4% 11%  
86 3% 7%  
87 2% 5%  
88 1.1% 3%  
89 0.7% 2%  
90 0.4% 0.9%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2% Majority
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.7%  
67 0.5% 99.5%  
68 0.8% 99.0%  
69 2% 98%  
70 2% 97%  
71 3% 95%  
72 5% 91%  
73 5% 86%  
74 8% 81%  
75 8% 73%  
76 10% 65%  
77 10% 55% Median
78 8% 45%  
79 10% 37%  
80 6% 27%  
81 7% 21%  
82 4% 14%  
83 4% 10%  
84 3% 6%  
85 1.3% 4%  
86 1.2% 2%  
87 0.5% 1.1%  
88 0.3% 0.6%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0% Majority

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.5% 99.6%  
59 0.9% 99.1%  
60 1.4% 98%  
61 2% 97%  
62 3% 95% Last Result
63 5% 91%  
64 6% 86%  
65 7% 80%  
66 9% 73%  
67 9% 64%  
68 11% 55% Median
69 9% 44%  
70 9% 35%  
71 7% 26%  
72 6% 19%  
73 5% 13%  
74 3% 9%  
75 2% 5%  
76 1.3% 3%  
77 0.8% 2%  
78 0.5% 1.0%  
79 0.3% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.4% 99.6%  
55 0.7% 99.3%  
56 1.3% 98.6%  
57 2% 97%  
58 3% 95%  
59 4% 92%  
60 6% 87%  
61 7% 81%  
62 9% 74%  
63 10% 65%  
64 11% 55% Median
65 10% 45%  
66 9% 35%  
67 7% 27%  
68 6% 19%  
69 5% 14%  
70 3% 9%  
71 2% 6%  
72 1.4% 3%  
73 0.9% 2%  
74 0.5% 1.0%  
75 0.3% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.4% 99.7%  
34 0.9% 99.2%  
35 2% 98%  
36 3% 96%  
37 6% 93%  
38 7% 88%  
39 7% 80%  
40 13% 74%  
41 11% 61%  
42 10% 50% Median
43 12% 40%  
44 6% 28%  
45 8% 21%  
46 6% 14%  
47 3% 8%  
48 3% 5%  
49 1.1% 3%  
50 0.6% 1.4%  
51 0.5% 0.8%  
52 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations