Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 2–5 August 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 31.5% 35.0% 32.9–37.2% 32.3–37.8% 31.8–38.4% 30.8–39.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 26.9% 22.0% 20.2–24.0% 19.7–24.5% 19.3–25.0% 18.4–26.0%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 26.0% 20.0% 18.3–21.9% 17.8–22.5% 17.4–22.9% 16.6–23.9%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 5.3% 10.0% 8.7–11.5% 8.4–11.9% 8.1–12.3% 7.5–13.0%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 3.8% 10.0% 8.7–11.5% 8.4–11.9% 8.1–12.3% 7.5–13.0%
JETZT–Liste Pilz 4.4% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.4–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 66 62–70 61–71 60–73 58–75
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 42 38–45 37–46 36–47 35–49
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 51 38 34–41 33–42 33–43 31–45
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 10 19 16–21 16–22 15–23 14–24
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 0 19 16–21 16–22 15–23 14–24
JETZT–Liste Pilz 8 0 0 0 0 0

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.4% 99.7%  
59 0.9% 99.3%  
60 2% 98%  
61 3% 97%  
62 6% 94% Last Result
63 7% 88%  
64 9% 80%  
65 13% 72%  
66 12% 58% Median
67 12% 47%  
68 13% 35%  
69 8% 22%  
70 6% 15%  
71 4% 9%  
72 2% 5%  
73 1.3% 3%  
74 0.8% 1.3%  
75 0.3% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 0.9% 99.6%  
36 2% 98.7%  
37 4% 97%  
38 6% 93%  
39 10% 86%  
40 12% 76%  
41 14% 64%  
42 14% 50% Median
43 13% 36%  
44 9% 24%  
45 7% 15%  
46 4% 8%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.0% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.8%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.6% 99.8%  
32 1.4% 99.2%  
33 3% 98%  
34 6% 95%  
35 9% 89%  
36 12% 80%  
37 15% 68%  
38 14% 53% Median
39 13% 38%  
40 11% 25%  
41 7% 15%  
42 4% 8%  
43 2% 4%  
44 1.1% 2%  
45 0.5% 0.8%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Last Result

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 100%  
14 1.3% 99.8%  
15 3% 98%  
16 8% 96%  
17 17% 87%  
18 15% 70%  
19 21% 56% Median
20 17% 35%  
21 7% 17%  
22 6% 10%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.7% 1.1%  
25 0.4% 0.5%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 100%  
14 1.1% 99.8%  
15 3% 98.7%  
16 9% 95%  
17 14% 86%  
18 20% 73%  
19 19% 53% Median
20 15% 34%  
21 10% 19%  
22 5% 9%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.8% 1.2%  
25 0.3% 0.4%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

JETZT–Liste Pilz

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 114 108 100% 104–112 102–113 101–114 99–116
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 113 104 100% 100–108 99–109 98–110 95–112
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 104 100% 100–108 98–109 97–110 95–112
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 85 2% 81–89 80–90 78–91 76–94
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 85 2% 81–89 80–90 78–91 77–94
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 103 79 0% 75–83 74–85 73–86 71–88
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 62 79 0% 75–83 74–84 73–85 71–88
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 66 0% 62–70 61–71 60–73 58–75
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 52 60 0% 56–64 55–65 54–66 52–69
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 42 0% 38–45 37–46 36–47 35–49

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0.1% 100%  
98 0.2% 99.9%  
99 0.4% 99.7%  
100 0.8% 99.3%  
101 1.5% 98.6%  
102 3% 97%  
103 4% 95%  
104 6% 91%  
105 8% 84%  
106 11% 76%  
107 12% 65%  
108 12% 53% Median
109 12% 41%  
110 10% 30%  
111 7% 20%  
112 6% 13%  
113 3% 7%  
114 2% 4% Last Result
115 1.1% 2%  
116 0.5% 0.9%  
117 0.2% 0.4%  
118 0.1% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.3% 99.8%  
96 0.7% 99.5%  
97 1.3% 98.8%  
98 2% 98%  
99 4% 95%  
100 5% 91%  
101 9% 86%  
102 9% 77%  
103 11% 68%  
104 13% 56% Median
105 11% 44%  
106 11% 33%  
107 8% 22%  
108 6% 14%  
109 4% 9%  
110 2% 4%  
111 1.3% 2%  
112 0.6% 1.0%  
113 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100% Majority
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.2% 99.9%  
95 0.4% 99.7%  
96 0.8% 99.3%  
97 2% 98.6%  
98 3% 97%  
99 4% 94%  
100 6% 90%  
101 9% 84%  
102 10% 75%  
103 11% 64%  
104 13% 53% Median
105 11% 40%  
106 9% 29%  
107 8% 20%  
108 5% 13%  
109 3% 7%  
110 2% 4%  
111 1.1% 2%  
112 0.5% 0.8%  
113 0.2% 0.4%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.8%  
77 0.7% 99.5%  
78 1.3% 98.8%  
79 2% 97%  
80 3% 95%  
81 6% 92%  
82 8% 85%  
83 10% 78%  
84 12% 67%  
85 13% 55% Median
86 10% 42%  
87 10% 32%  
88 9% 22%  
89 4% 13%  
90 4% 9%  
91 2% 5%  
92 1.3% 2% Majority
93 0.6% 1.1%  
94 0.3% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.8%  
77 0.6% 99.5%  
78 1.4% 98.9%  
79 2% 97%  
80 4% 95%  
81 6% 91%  
82 8% 85%  
83 10% 77%  
84 11% 67%  
85 12% 56% Median
86 12% 44%  
87 9% 31%  
88 8% 22%  
89 6% 14%  
90 4% 8%  
91 2% 5%  
92 1.3% 2% Majority
93 0.6% 1.2%  
94 0.3% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.5% 99.6%  
72 1.1% 99.2%  
73 2% 98%  
74 3% 96%  
75 5% 93%  
76 8% 87%  
77 9% 80%  
78 11% 71%  
79 13% 60%  
80 11% 47% Median
81 10% 36%  
82 9% 25%  
83 6% 16%  
84 4% 10%  
85 3% 6%  
86 2% 3%  
87 0.8% 1.4%  
88 0.4% 0.7%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.8%  
71 0.6% 99.6%  
72 1.3% 99.0%  
73 2% 98%  
74 4% 96%  
75 6% 91%  
76 8% 86%  
77 11% 78%  
78 11% 67%  
79 13% 56%  
80 11% 44% Median
81 9% 32%  
82 9% 23%  
83 5% 14%  
84 4% 9%  
85 2% 5%  
86 1.2% 2%  
87 0.7% 1.2%  
88 0.3% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.4% 99.7%  
59 0.9% 99.3%  
60 2% 98%  
61 3% 97%  
62 6% 94% Last Result
63 7% 88%  
64 9% 80%  
65 13% 72%  
66 12% 58% Median
67 12% 47%  
68 13% 35%  
69 8% 22%  
70 6% 15%  
71 4% 9%  
72 2% 5%  
73 1.3% 3%  
74 0.8% 1.3%  
75 0.3% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
53 0.9% 99.4%  
54 2% 98.6%  
55 3% 97%  
56 6% 94%  
57 6% 89%  
58 12% 82%  
59 10% 70%  
60 15% 60%  
61 10% 45% Median
62 12% 35%  
63 8% 24%  
64 7% 16%  
65 4% 9%  
66 2% 5%  
67 1.3% 2%  
68 0.6% 1.1%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 0.9% 99.6%  
36 2% 98.7%  
37 4% 97%  
38 6% 93%  
39 10% 86%  
40 12% 76%  
41 14% 64%  
42 14% 50% Median
43 13% 36%  
44 9% 24%  
45 7% 15%  
46 4% 8%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.0% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.8%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations