Opinion Poll by Research Affairs for ÖSTERREICH, 1–7 August 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 31.5% 36.0% 33.4–38.9% 32.6–39.6% 32.0–40.3% 30.7–41.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 26.9% 22.0% 19.8–24.5% 19.1–25.2% 18.6–25.8% 17.6–27.0%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 26.0% 20.0% 17.9–22.4% 17.3–23.1% 16.7–23.7% 15.8–24.9%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 3.8% 10.1% 8.6–12.0% 8.1–12.6% 7.8–13.0% 7.1–14.0%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 5.3% 7.9% 6.6–9.7% 6.2–10.2% 5.9–10.6% 5.3–11.5%
JETZT–Liste Pilz 4.4% 2.0% 1.4–3.0% 1.2–3.3% 1.1–3.6% 0.9–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 69 64–74 62–76 61–77 59–79
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 42 37–46 36–48 35–49 33–51
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 51 38 34–42 33–44 32–45 30–47
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 0 19 16–22 15–23 15–25 13–26
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 10 15 12–18 11–19 11–20 10–22
JETZT–Liste Pilz 8 0 0 0 0 0–7

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.8%  
59 0.5% 99.5%  
60 1.0% 99.0%  
61 1.5% 98%  
62 2% 96% Last Result
63 4% 94%  
64 5% 90%  
65 6% 85%  
66 8% 79%  
67 9% 71%  
68 10% 62%  
69 10% 52% Median
70 10% 43%  
71 8% 32%  
72 7% 25%  
73 6% 18%  
74 4% 12%  
75 3% 8%  
76 2% 5%  
77 1.3% 3%  
78 0.7% 2%  
79 0.5% 0.9%  
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.4% 99.8%  
34 0.9% 99.3%  
35 2% 98%  
36 3% 97%  
37 4% 94%  
38 7% 90%  
39 9% 83%  
40 11% 74%  
41 10% 64%  
42 11% 54% Median
43 11% 43%  
44 10% 32%  
45 8% 22%  
46 5% 15%  
47 3% 9%  
48 3% 6%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.9% 2%  
51 0.5% 0.9%  
52 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.9%  
30 0.6% 99.6%  
31 1.2% 99.0%  
32 2% 98%  
33 4% 95%  
34 6% 91%  
35 8% 86%  
36 10% 77%  
37 11% 67%  
38 12% 56% Median
39 11% 45%  
40 10% 33%  
41 8% 23%  
42 6% 16%  
43 4% 10%  
44 3% 6%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.9% 2%  
47 0.5% 0.9%  
48 0.2% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Last Result

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.2% 100%  
13 0.6% 99.8%  
14 2% 99.2%  
15 4% 98%  
16 7% 93%  
17 13% 86%  
18 14% 73%  
19 16% 59% Median
20 15% 43%  
21 10% 28%  
22 8% 17%  
23 4% 9%  
24 2% 5%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.6% 1.0%  
27 0.3% 0.5%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.3% 99.9%  
10 1.3% 99.6% Last Result
11 4% 98%  
12 8% 95%  
13 13% 87%  
14 17% 74%  
15 17% 57% Median
16 15% 40%  
17 11% 24%  
18 7% 14%  
19 4% 7%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.8% 1.3%  
22 0.3% 0.5%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

JETZT–Liste Pilz

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Median
1 0% 0.8%  
2 0% 0.8%  
3 0% 0.8%  
4 0% 0.8%  
5 0% 0.8%  
6 0% 0.8%  
7 0.4% 0.8%  
8 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 114 111 100% 105–116 104–117 102–119 100–121
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 113 107 100% 102–112 100–114 99–115 96–117
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 103 99.7% 97–108 96–110 95–111 92–114
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 88 20% 82–93 81–95 80–96 77–99
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 84 3% 78–89 77–91 76–92 73–94
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 103 80 0.3% 75–85 73–87 72–88 69–91
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 62 76 0% 71–81 69–83 68–84 65–87
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 69 0% 64–74 62–76 61–77 59–79
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 52 61 0% 56–66 55–68 54–69 51–71
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 42 0% 37–46 36–48 35–49 33–51

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0.1% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.2% 99.8%  
100 0.4% 99.6%  
101 0.7% 99.2%  
102 1.1% 98.6%  
103 2% 97%  
104 3% 96%  
105 3% 93%  
106 5% 90%  
107 6% 84%  
108 8% 78%  
109 9% 70%  
110 9% 61%  
111 9% 51% Median
112 9% 42%  
113 9% 33%  
114 7% 25% Last Result
115 6% 17%  
116 4% 12%  
117 3% 8%  
118 2% 5%  
119 1.2% 3%  
120 0.7% 1.5%  
121 0.4% 0.7%  
122 0.2% 0.4%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.2% 99.8%  
96 0.4% 99.6%  
97 0.6% 99.3%  
98 1.1% 98.7%  
99 2% 98%  
100 3% 96%  
101 3% 93%  
102 5% 90%  
103 6% 85%  
104 8% 79%  
105 8% 71%  
106 10% 63%  
107 9% 54% Median
108 10% 44%  
109 8% 35%  
110 8% 26%  
111 6% 19%  
112 5% 13%  
113 3% 9% Last Result
114 2% 5%  
115 1.4% 3%  
116 0.8% 2%  
117 0.4% 0.9%  
118 0.3% 0.5%  
119 0.1% 0.2%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.8%  
92 0.3% 99.7% Majority
93 0.6% 99.4%  
94 1.2% 98.8%  
95 2% 98%  
96 3% 96%  
97 3% 93%  
98 3% 90%  
99 5% 87%  
100 7% 81%  
101 11% 74%  
102 12% 63%  
103 10% 52% Median
104 8% 42%  
105 6% 34%  
106 7% 28%  
107 6% 21%  
108 5% 15%  
109 4% 9%  
110 2% 5%  
111 1.2% 3%  
112 0.7% 2%  
113 0.5% 1.1%  
114 0.3% 0.6%  
115 0.2% 0.3%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.3% 99.7%  
78 0.6% 99.4%  
79 1.0% 98.8%  
80 2% 98%  
81 3% 96%  
82 4% 93%  
83 4% 90%  
84 6% 86%  
85 8% 80%  
86 8% 72%  
87 11% 64%  
88 9% 53% Median
89 9% 44%  
90 8% 35%  
91 7% 27%  
92 6% 20% Majority
93 5% 14%  
94 3% 9%  
95 2% 6%  
96 2% 3%  
97 0.9% 2%  
98 0.4% 1.0%  
99 0.3% 0.6%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
73 0.3% 99.7%  
74 0.6% 99.3%  
75 0.9% 98.7%  
76 2% 98%  
77 3% 96%  
78 4% 94%  
79 5% 90%  
80 6% 85%  
81 8% 79%  
82 8% 71%  
83 10% 63%  
84 10% 53% Median
85 9% 43%  
86 8% 34%  
87 8% 25%  
88 5% 18%  
89 4% 12%  
90 3% 8%  
91 2% 5%  
92 1.3% 3% Majority
93 0.8% 2%  
94 0.5% 1.0%  
95 0.2% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.7%  
70 0.5% 99.4%  
71 0.7% 98.9%  
72 1.3% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 4% 94%  
75 6% 90%  
76 6% 85%  
77 7% 78%  
78 6% 71%  
79 8% 65%  
80 10% 57% Median
81 11% 47%  
82 11% 36%  
83 7% 25%  
84 5% 18%  
85 3% 13%  
86 3% 10%  
87 3% 7%  
88 2% 4%  
89 1.2% 2%  
90 0.5% 1.0%  
91 0.3% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.3% Majority
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.8%  
66 0.5% 99.5%  
67 0.9% 99.0%  
68 1.5% 98%  
69 2% 97%  
70 3% 94%  
71 5% 91%  
72 6% 86%  
73 8% 81%  
74 8% 73%  
75 10% 64%  
76 9% 55% Median
77 10% 45%  
78 8% 36%  
79 8% 28%  
80 6% 20%  
81 5% 14%  
82 3% 9%  
83 2% 6%  
84 1.5% 4%  
85 1.0% 2%  
86 0.5% 1.2%  
87 0.3% 0.6%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.8%  
59 0.5% 99.5%  
60 1.0% 99.0%  
61 1.5% 98%  
62 2% 96% Last Result
63 4% 94%  
64 5% 90%  
65 6% 85%  
66 8% 79%  
67 9% 71%  
68 10% 62%  
69 10% 52% Median
70 10% 43%  
71 8% 32%  
72 7% 25%  
73 6% 18%  
74 4% 12%  
75 3% 8%  
76 2% 5%  
77 1.3% 3%  
78 0.7% 2%  
79 0.5% 0.9%  
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.4% 99.7%  
52 0.7% 99.4% Last Result
53 1.1% 98.7%  
54 2% 98%  
55 3% 96%  
56 6% 92%  
57 6% 87%  
58 6% 81%  
59 8% 75%  
60 11% 66%  
61 12% 55% Median
62 8% 43%  
63 7% 34%  
64 8% 27%  
65 7% 19%  
66 4% 12%  
67 2% 8%  
68 2% 5%  
69 1.5% 3%  
70 0.8% 2%  
71 0.3% 0.8%  
72 0.2% 0.5%  
73 0.1% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.4% 99.8%  
34 0.9% 99.3%  
35 2% 98%  
36 3% 97%  
37 4% 94%  
38 7% 90%  
39 9% 83%  
40 11% 74%  
41 10% 64%  
42 11% 54% Median
43 11% 43%  
44 10% 32%  
45 8% 22%  
46 5% 15%  
47 3% 9%  
48 3% 6%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.9% 2%  
51 0.5% 0.9%  
52 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations