Opinion Poll by Kowarcz Marktforschung, 26 July–9 August 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 31.0% | 29.5–32.5% | 29.1–33.0% | 28.8–33.3% | 28.1–34.0% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 22.0% | 20.7–23.4% | 20.3–23.8% | 20.0–24.1% | 19.4–24.8% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 20.0% | 18.8–21.3% | 18.4–21.7% | 18.1–22.0% | 17.5–22.7% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 13.0% | 12.0–14.1% | 11.7–14.5% | 11.4–14.7% | 11.0–15.3% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 9.0% | 8.1–10.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.7–10.5% | 7.3–11.0% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.2–3.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 60 | 57–63 | 56–64 | 56–64 | 54–65 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 42 | 40–45 | 39–46 | 39–46 | 37–48 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 39 | 36–41 | 35–42 | 35–42 | 34–44 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 25 | 23–27 | 22–28 | 22–28 | 21–29 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 17 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 15–20 | 14–21 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 56 | 6% | 98% | |
| 57 | 12% | 92% | |
| 58 | 7% | 80% | |
| 59 | 11% | 73% | |
| 60 | 24% | 62% | Median |
| 61 | 22% | 38% | |
| 62 | 4% | 15% | Last Result |
| 63 | 4% | 11% | |
| 64 | 5% | 7% | |
| 65 | 2% | 2% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 39 | 5% | 98% | |
| 40 | 10% | 93% | |
| 41 | 19% | 83% | |
| 42 | 18% | 64% | Median |
| 43 | 15% | 46% | |
| 44 | 16% | 30% | |
| 45 | 8% | 14% | |
| 46 | 4% | 6% | |
| 47 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 35 | 4% | 98% | |
| 36 | 8% | 94% | |
| 37 | 12% | 86% | |
| 38 | 19% | 74% | |
| 39 | 23% | 55% | Median |
| 40 | 19% | 32% | |
| 41 | 8% | 13% | |
| 42 | 3% | 5% | |
| 43 | 2% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 21 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 22 | 5% | 98.5% | |
| 23 | 12% | 93% | |
| 24 | 21% | 81% | |
| 25 | 20% | 60% | Median |
| 26 | 24% | 40% | |
| 27 | 10% | 16% | |
| 28 | 5% | 6% | |
| 29 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 11% | 98% | |
| 16 | 21% | 87% | |
| 17 | 23% | 65% | Median |
| 18 | 26% | 42% | |
| 19 | 13% | 16% | |
| 20 | 3% | 4% | |
| 21 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 102 | 100% | 99–105 | 98–107 | 98–107 | 96–108 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 102 | 100% | 99–105 | 98–106 | 97–107 | 95–108 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 98 | 99.7% | 95–101 | 95–102 | 94–103 | 92–105 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 85 | 0.3% | 81–88 | 81–89 | 80–90 | 78–91 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 103 | 81 | 0% | 78–84 | 77–85 | 76–86 | 75–87 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 62 | 81 | 0% | 77–83 | 76–84 | 76–85 | 74–87 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 77 | 0% | 74–80 | 73–81 | 72–82 | 71–83 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 52 | 64 | 0% | 61–66 | 60–67 | 59–68 | 57–69 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 60 | 0% | 57–63 | 56–64 | 56–64 | 54–65 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 39 | 0% | 36–41 | 35–42 | 35–42 | 34–44 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 97 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 98 | 3% | 98% | |
| 99 | 5% | 94% | |
| 100 | 11% | 89% | |
| 101 | 21% | 78% | |
| 102 | 17% | 58% | Median |
| 103 | 15% | 41% | |
| 104 | 10% | 26% | |
| 105 | 7% | 16% | |
| 106 | 4% | 9% | |
| 107 | 3% | 5% | |
| 108 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 97 | 2% | 98% | |
| 98 | 3% | 96% | |
| 99 | 8% | 92% | |
| 100 | 14% | 85% | |
| 101 | 15% | 70% | |
| 102 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 103 | 12% | 41% | |
| 104 | 16% | 28% | |
| 105 | 6% | 13% | |
| 106 | 3% | 6% | |
| 107 | 2% | 3% | |
| 108 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.6% | 99.7% | Majority |
| 93 | 1.4% | 99.1% | |
| 94 | 2% | 98% | |
| 95 | 7% | 95% | |
| 96 | 10% | 88% | |
| 97 | 14% | 78% | |
| 98 | 16% | 64% | |
| 99 | 15% | 48% | Median |
| 100 | 15% | 33% | |
| 101 | 9% | 19% | |
| 102 | 5% | 9% | |
| 103 | 3% | 5% | |
| 104 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 105 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 79 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 80 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 81 | 6% | 96% | |
| 82 | 9% | 90% | |
| 83 | 9% | 81% | |
| 84 | 14% | 71% | |
| 85 | 19% | 57% | Median |
| 86 | 18% | 39% | |
| 87 | 9% | 21% | |
| 88 | 6% | 12% | |
| 89 | 4% | 6% | |
| 90 | 2% | 3% | |
| 91 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 76 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 77 | 3% | 96% | |
| 78 | 7% | 93% | |
| 79 | 16% | 86% | |
| 80 | 13% | 70% | |
| 81 | 15% | 58% | Median |
| 82 | 15% | 43% | |
| 83 | 14% | 28% | |
| 84 | 7% | 14% | |
| 85 | 3% | 7% | |
| 86 | 2% | 3% | |
| 87 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 75 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 76 | 3% | 98% | |
| 77 | 5% | 94% | |
| 78 | 7% | 90% | |
| 79 | 10% | 83% | |
| 80 | 15% | 72% | |
| 81 | 17% | 57% | Median |
| 82 | 21% | 41% | |
| 83 | 11% | 20% | |
| 84 | 5% | 9% | |
| 85 | 3% | 5% | |
| 86 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 72 | 2% | 98.8% | Last Result |
| 73 | 3% | 96% | |
| 74 | 8% | 93% | |
| 75 | 15% | 85% | |
| 76 | 15% | 70% | |
| 77 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 78 | 20% | 45% | |
| 79 | 12% | 25% | |
| 80 | 7% | 13% | |
| 81 | 3% | 6% | |
| 82 | 3% | 4% | |
| 83 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 59 | 3% | 98.5% | |
| 60 | 6% | 96% | |
| 61 | 8% | 90% | |
| 62 | 11% | 82% | |
| 63 | 15% | 71% | |
| 64 | 23% | 56% | Median |
| 65 | 16% | 33% | |
| 66 | 8% | 17% | |
| 67 | 5% | 9% | |
| 68 | 2% | 4% | |
| 69 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 56 | 6% | 98% | |
| 57 | 12% | 92% | |
| 58 | 7% | 80% | |
| 59 | 11% | 73% | |
| 60 | 24% | 62% | Median |
| 61 | 22% | 38% | |
| 62 | 4% | 15% | Last Result |
| 63 | 4% | 11% | |
| 64 | 5% | 7% | |
| 65 | 2% | 2% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 35 | 4% | 98% | |
| 36 | 8% | 94% | |
| 37 | 12% | 86% | |
| 38 | 19% | 74% | |
| 39 | 23% | 55% | Median |
| 40 | 19% | 32% | |
| 41 | 8% | 13% | |
| 42 | 3% | 5% | |
| 43 | 2% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kowarcz Marktforschung
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 26 July–9 August 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1600
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.59%