Opinion Poll by Research Affairs for ÖSTERREICH, 9–14 August 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 31.5% 35.0% 32.3–37.8% 31.6–38.6% 30.9–39.2% 29.7–40.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 26.9% 20.9% 18.8–23.4% 18.2–24.1% 17.6–24.7% 16.6–25.9%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 26.0% 19.0% 16.9–21.4% 16.3–22.0% 15.8–22.6% 14.8–23.8%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 3.8% 11.1% 9.4–13.0% 9.0–13.6% 8.6–14.1% 7.9–15.1%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 5.3% 9.1% 7.6–10.9% 7.2–11.5% 6.9–11.9% 6.2–12.9%
JETZT–Liste Pilz 4.4% 2.0% 1.4–3.0% 1.2–3.3% 1.1–3.6% 0.9–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 67 62–72 60–74 59–75 57–78
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 40 36–44 34–46 34–47 31–50
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 51 36 32–41 31–42 30–43 28–45
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 0 21 18–25 17–26 16–27 15–29
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 10 17 14–21 14–22 13–22 11–24
JETZT–Liste Pilz 8 0 0 0 0 0–7

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.5% 99.5%  
58 0.9% 99.0%  
59 2% 98%  
60 2% 97%  
61 3% 94%  
62 5% 91% Last Result
63 6% 86%  
64 7% 80%  
65 8% 73%  
66 8% 64%  
67 10% 56% Median
68 11% 46%  
69 8% 36%  
70 7% 28%  
71 5% 20%  
72 5% 15%  
73 4% 10%  
74 2% 6%  
75 2% 4%  
76 0.9% 2%  
77 0.5% 1.2%  
78 0.3% 0.6%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.4% 99.8%  
32 0.7% 99.4%  
33 1.2% 98.8%  
34 3% 98%  
35 4% 95%  
36 5% 90%  
37 10% 86%  
38 11% 76%  
39 8% 66%  
40 12% 58% Median
41 14% 46%  
42 7% 32%  
43 7% 25%  
44 8% 18%  
45 3% 10%  
46 2% 6%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.1% 2%  
49 0.3% 0.9%  
50 0.3% 0.6%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1% Last Result
53 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.5% 99.7%  
29 0.9% 99.2%  
30 2% 98%  
31 4% 96%  
32 5% 92%  
33 8% 87%  
34 10% 80%  
35 11% 70%  
36 13% 59% Median
37 11% 46%  
38 9% 35%  
39 9% 26%  
40 6% 16%  
41 4% 11%  
42 3% 7%  
43 2% 4%  
44 1.0% 2%  
45 0.5% 1.0%  
46 0.3% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Last Result

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.3% 99.9%  
15 0.9% 99.6%  
16 2% 98.7%  
17 5% 96%  
18 8% 91%  
19 11% 83%  
20 14% 71%  
21 14% 58% Median
22 13% 44%  
23 11% 31%  
24 8% 20%  
25 6% 11%  
26 3% 6%  
27 1.4% 3%  
28 0.7% 1.3%  
29 0.3% 0.6%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100% Last Result
11 0.5% 99.9%  
12 2% 99.5%  
13 3% 98%  
14 6% 95%  
15 15% 89%  
16 14% 74%  
17 12% 60% Median
18 17% 48%  
19 14% 31%  
20 6% 17%  
21 4% 10%  
22 4% 6%  
23 1.4% 2%  
24 0.5% 0.9%  
25 0.3% 0.4%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

JETZT–Liste Pilz

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Median
1 0% 0.8%  
2 0% 0.8%  
3 0% 0.8%  
4 0% 0.8%  
5 0% 0.8%  
6 0% 0.8%  
7 0.3% 0.8%  
8 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 114 107 100% 101–113 100–114 98–116 95–118
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 106 99.9% 100–111 98–113 97–114 94–116
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 113 103 99.5% 98–109 96–110 95–112 92–115
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 88 24% 82–94 81–95 79–97 77–99
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 84 5% 79–90 77–92 76–93 73–96
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 62 79 0.1% 73–84 72–86 70–87 67–90
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 103 76 0% 71–82 69–83 68–85 65–88
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 67 0% 62–72 60–74 59–75 57–78
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 52 61 0% 56–67 55–68 53–69 51–72
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 40 0% 36–44 34–46 34–47 31–50

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100% Majority
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.2% 99.9%  
95 0.2% 99.7%  
96 0.5% 99.5%  
97 0.7% 99.0%  
98 1.1% 98%  
99 2% 97%  
100 2% 95%  
101 3% 93%  
102 4% 90%  
103 5% 85%  
104 7% 80%  
105 8% 73%  
106 9% 65%  
107 9% 57% Median
108 9% 48%  
109 9% 39%  
110 7% 30%  
111 7% 23%  
112 5% 16%  
113 4% 11%  
114 2% 7% Last Result
115 2% 5%  
116 1.2% 3%  
117 0.7% 1.4%  
118 0.4% 0.7%  
119 0.2% 0.4%  
120 0.1% 0.2%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9% Majority
93 0.2% 99.8%  
94 0.4% 99.6%  
95 0.6% 99.2%  
96 1.0% 98.6%  
97 2% 98%  
98 2% 96%  
99 3% 94%  
100 4% 91%  
101 5% 87%  
102 6% 82%  
103 7% 76%  
104 10% 69%  
105 8% 59% Median
106 8% 51%  
107 10% 43%  
108 8% 33%  
109 7% 25%  
110 6% 19%  
111 4% 13%  
112 3% 9%  
113 2% 6%  
114 1.3% 3%  
115 0.8% 2%  
116 0.6% 1.1%  
117 0.3% 0.5%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.2% 99.7%  
92 0.4% 99.5% Majority
93 0.6% 99.1%  
94 1.0% 98.5%  
95 2% 98%  
96 2% 96%  
97 3% 94%  
98 5% 90%  
99 5% 86%  
100 6% 80%  
101 8% 74%  
102 8% 67%  
103 10% 59% Median
104 9% 50%  
105 8% 41%  
106 8% 33%  
107 7% 25%  
108 6% 18%  
109 5% 12%  
110 3% 7%  
111 2% 5%  
112 1.1% 3%  
113 0.7% 2% Last Result
114 0.4% 1.0%  
115 0.3% 0.5%  
116 0.2% 0.3%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.3% 99.6%  
78 0.7% 99.2%  
79 1.1% 98.5%  
80 2% 97%  
81 2% 96%  
82 3% 93%  
83 4% 90%  
84 6% 86%  
85 6% 80%  
86 9% 74%  
87 8% 64%  
88 7% 57% Median
89 12% 49%  
90 7% 38%  
91 7% 31%  
92 8% 24% Majority
93 5% 16%  
94 4% 11%  
95 3% 8%  
96 2% 5%  
97 1.3% 3%  
98 0.7% 2%  
99 0.4% 0.9%  
100 0.3% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
73 0.3% 99.7%  
74 0.6% 99.4%  
75 0.9% 98.8%  
76 1.5% 98%  
77 2% 96%  
78 3% 94%  
79 4% 91%  
80 6% 87%  
81 6% 81%  
82 9% 75%  
83 9% 67%  
84 8% 57% Median
85 9% 49%  
86 9% 40%  
87 7% 31%  
88 6% 24%  
89 6% 18%  
90 4% 12%  
91 3% 8%  
92 2% 5% Majority
93 1.2% 3%  
94 0.8% 2%  
95 0.5% 1.0%  
96 0.3% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.7%  
68 0.5% 99.4%  
69 0.8% 98.9%  
70 1.2% 98%  
71 2% 97%  
72 3% 95%  
73 4% 92%  
74 6% 89%  
75 7% 83%  
76 8% 76%  
77 9% 68%  
78 9% 59% Median
79 9% 51%  
80 9% 41%  
81 7% 32%  
82 7% 25%  
83 5% 18%  
84 4% 13%  
85 4% 9%  
86 2% 5%  
87 1.4% 3%  
88 0.8% 2%  
89 0.4% 1.0%  
90 0.2% 0.5%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.1% Majority
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.7%  
66 0.5% 99.5%  
67 0.9% 99.0%  
68 1.3% 98%  
69 2% 97%  
70 3% 95%  
71 4% 91%  
72 5% 87%  
73 7% 82%  
74 7% 75%  
75 9% 67%  
76 10% 58% Median
77 8% 48%  
78 8% 40%  
79 9% 32%  
80 6% 23%  
81 5% 17%  
82 4% 12%  
83 3% 8%  
84 2% 5%  
85 1.4% 3%  
86 0.7% 2%  
87 0.5% 1.0%  
88 0.3% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.5% 99.5%  
58 0.9% 99.0%  
59 2% 98%  
60 2% 97%  
61 3% 94%  
62 5% 91% Last Result
63 6% 86%  
64 7% 80%  
65 8% 73%  
66 8% 64%  
67 10% 56% Median
68 11% 46%  
69 8% 36%  
70 7% 28%  
71 5% 20%  
72 5% 15%  
73 4% 10%  
74 2% 6%  
75 2% 4%  
76 0.9% 2%  
77 0.5% 1.2%  
78 0.3% 0.6%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.2% 99.8%  
51 0.4% 99.7%  
52 0.8% 99.2% Last Result
53 1.0% 98%  
54 2% 97%  
55 3% 95%  
56 4% 92%  
57 7% 88%  
58 6% 81%  
59 9% 75%  
60 10% 67%  
61 8% 57% Median
62 11% 48%  
63 8% 37%  
64 8% 29%  
65 7% 21%  
66 4% 14%  
67 4% 10%  
68 3% 7%  
69 1.4% 4%  
70 1.2% 2%  
71 0.6% 1.2%  
72 0.3% 0.6%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.4% 99.8%  
32 0.7% 99.4%  
33 1.2% 98.8%  
34 3% 98%  
35 4% 95%  
36 5% 90%  
37 10% 86%  
38 11% 76%  
39 8% 66%  
40 12% 58% Median
41 14% 46%  
42 7% 32%  
43 7% 25%  
44 8% 18%  
45 3% 10%  
46 2% 6%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.1% 2%  
49 0.3% 0.9%  
50 0.3% 0.6%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1% Last Result
53 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations