Opinion Poll by Research Affairs for ÖSTERREICH, 16–21 August 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 31.5% 35.0% 32.4–37.8% 31.7–38.6% 31.0–39.3% 29.8–40.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 26.9% 21.0% 18.8–23.5% 18.2–24.2% 17.7–24.8% 16.7–26.0%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 26.0% 19.0% 16.9–21.4% 16.3–22.1% 15.8–22.7% 14.9–23.9%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 3.8% 11.1% 9.5–13.1% 9.0–13.6% 8.6–14.1% 7.9–15.1%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 5.3% 7.9% 6.6–9.7% 6.2–10.2% 5.9–10.6% 5.3–11.5%
JETZT–Liste Pilz 4.4% 2.0% 1.4–3.0% 1.2–3.3% 1.1–3.6% 0.9–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 67 61–72 60–74 58–75 56–78
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 40 35–45 34–46 33–47 31–50
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 51 36 32–40 31–42 30–43 28–45
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 0 21 18–24 17–26 16–27 14–28
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 10 15 12–18 11–19 11–20 10–22
JETZT–Liste Pilz 8 0 0 0 0 0–7

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.4% 99.6%  
57 0.7% 99.3%  
58 1.2% 98.5%  
59 2% 97%  
60 3% 95%  
61 4% 93%  
62 5% 89% Last Result
63 7% 83%  
64 8% 77%  
65 9% 69%  
66 10% 60%  
67 8% 50% Median
68 9% 42%  
69 8% 33%  
70 7% 25%  
71 6% 19%  
72 4% 13%  
73 3% 9%  
74 2% 6%  
75 1.5% 4%  
76 0.9% 2%  
77 0.6% 1.2%  
78 0.3% 0.7%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.4% 99.7%  
32 0.8% 99.3%  
33 2% 98.5%  
34 3% 97%  
35 5% 94%  
36 6% 89%  
37 8% 82%  
38 10% 74%  
39 11% 65%  
40 11% 53% Median
41 10% 42%  
42 9% 32%  
43 8% 23%  
44 5% 15%  
45 4% 10%  
46 2% 6%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.0% 2%  
49 0.5% 1.0%  
50 0.3% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
53 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.6% 99.6%  
29 1.3% 99.0%  
30 2% 98%  
31 4% 95%  
32 6% 91%  
33 8% 85%  
34 10% 77%  
35 11% 67%  
36 12% 55% Median
37 10% 44%  
38 10% 33%  
39 8% 23%  
40 6% 16%  
41 4% 10%  
42 2% 6%  
43 2% 4%  
44 0.9% 2%  
45 0.5% 1.0%  
46 0.2% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Last Result

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.4% 99.9%  
15 1.0% 99.5%  
16 3% 98.5%  
17 5% 96%  
18 9% 91%  
19 12% 82%  
20 15% 70%  
21 15% 55% Median
22 13% 40%  
23 10% 28%  
24 8% 18%  
25 4% 10%  
26 3% 6%  
27 1.2% 3%  
28 0.8% 1.3%  
29 0.2% 0.5%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.4% 99.9%  
10 2% 99.5% Last Result
11 4% 98%  
12 8% 94%  
13 13% 86%  
14 16% 72%  
15 17% 57% Median
16 15% 39%  
17 10% 24%  
18 7% 14%  
19 3% 7%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.9% 1.5%  
22 0.4% 0.6%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

JETZT–Liste Pilz

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Median
1 0% 0.8%  
2 0% 0.8%  
3 0% 0.8%  
4 0% 0.8%  
5 0% 0.8%  
6 0% 0.8%  
7 0.3% 0.8%  
8 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 114 106 99.9% 100–113 99–114 97–116 94–119
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 103 99.2% 96–109 95–111 93–112 91–115
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 113 103 99.2% 96–109 95–111 93–112 91–115
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 88 20% 82–94 80–95 79–97 76–100
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 82 2% 76–87 74–89 73–91 70–93
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 62 76 0% 70–82 68–83 67–85 65–88
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 103 76 0% 70–82 69–84 67–85 65–87
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 67 0% 61–72 60–74 58–75 56–78
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 52 61 0% 56–66 54–68 53–69 50–72
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 40 0% 35–45 34–46 33–47 31–50

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9% Majority
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.3% 99.7%  
95 0.4% 99.5%  
96 0.7% 99.0%  
97 1.2% 98%  
98 2% 97%  
99 2% 95%  
100 4% 93%  
101 4% 89%  
102 6% 85%  
103 7% 79%  
104 7% 73%  
105 8% 66%  
106 8% 58%  
107 8% 50% Median
108 7% 42%  
109 7% 34%  
110 7% 27%  
111 5% 21%  
112 4% 15%  
113 3% 11%  
114 3% 8% Last Result
115 2% 5%  
116 1.2% 3%  
117 0.8% 2%  
118 0.4% 1.0%  
119 0.3% 0.6%  
120 0.1% 0.3%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.7%  
91 0.3% 99.5%  
92 0.7% 99.2% Majority
93 1.2% 98%  
94 2% 97%  
95 2% 95%  
96 3% 93%  
97 3% 90%  
98 5% 87%  
99 8% 81%  
100 10% 73%  
101 6% 63%  
102 6% 57%  
103 7% 51% Median
104 8% 45%  
105 11% 36%  
106 7% 26%  
107 4% 19%  
108 3% 15%  
109 3% 12%  
110 3% 9%  
111 3% 5%  
112 1.3% 3%  
113 0.6% 2%  
114 0.3% 1.0%  
115 0.3% 0.6%  
116 0.2% 0.4%  
117 0.1% 0.2%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.8%  
91 0.4% 99.5%  
92 0.7% 99.2% Majority
93 1.1% 98%  
94 2% 97%  
95 3% 96%  
96 3% 93%  
97 4% 90%  
98 6% 86%  
99 6% 80%  
100 7% 75%  
101 8% 67%  
102 9% 60%  
103 7% 50% Median
104 8% 43%  
105 7% 35%  
106 7% 28%  
107 6% 22%  
108 4% 16%  
109 4% 12%  
110 3% 8%  
111 2% 5%  
112 2% 4%  
113 0.8% 2% Last Result
114 0.5% 1.2%  
115 0.3% 0.7%  
116 0.2% 0.3%  
117 0.1% 0.2%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.8%  
76 0.3% 99.6%  
77 0.6% 99.3%  
78 1.1% 98.7%  
79 1.5% 98%  
80 3% 96%  
81 3% 94%  
82 4% 91%  
83 5% 87%  
84 7% 81%  
85 7% 74%  
86 8% 67%  
87 9% 59%  
88 8% 50% Median
89 9% 43%  
90 7% 34%  
91 7% 27%  
92 5% 20% Majority
93 5% 15%  
94 3% 11%  
95 3% 8%  
96 2% 5%  
97 1.2% 3%  
98 0.7% 2%  
99 0.4% 1.0%  
100 0.2% 0.5%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.8%  
70 0.3% 99.7%  
71 0.6% 99.4%  
72 0.9% 98.8% Last Result
73 1.5% 98%  
74 2% 96%  
75 3% 94%  
76 4% 91%  
77 5% 87%  
78 7% 82%  
79 8% 75%  
80 8% 67%  
81 8% 59%  
82 9% 51% Median
83 8% 42%  
84 8% 34%  
85 6% 26%  
86 6% 20%  
87 4% 14%  
88 3% 10%  
89 2% 7%  
90 2% 4%  
91 1.1% 3%  
92 0.7% 2% Majority
93 0.4% 0.8%  
94 0.2% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100% Last Result
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.5% 99.5%  
66 0.7% 99.0%  
67 1.3% 98%  
68 2% 97%  
69 3% 95%  
70 4% 92%  
71 5% 88%  
72 6% 83%  
73 7% 77%  
74 10% 70%  
75 8% 60%  
76 8% 52% Median
77 9% 43%  
78 8% 35%  
79 6% 27%  
80 5% 21%  
81 5% 15%  
82 3% 10%  
83 3% 7%  
84 2% 4%  
85 1.1% 3%  
86 0.8% 2%  
87 0.5% 1.0%  
88 0.3% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0% Majority

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.3% 99.5%  
66 0.6% 99.2%  
67 1.1% 98.6%  
68 2% 97%  
69 3% 95%  
70 4% 92%  
71 4% 88%  
72 6% 84%  
73 7% 78%  
74 10% 71%  
75 8% 61%  
76 8% 53% Median
77 7% 45%  
78 9% 37%  
79 7% 28%  
80 7% 21%  
81 4% 14%  
82 2% 10%  
83 3% 8%  
84 2% 5%  
85 1.4% 3%  
86 0.9% 2%  
87 0.3% 0.8%  
88 0.2% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.4% 99.6%  
57 0.7% 99.3%  
58 1.2% 98.5%  
59 2% 97%  
60 3% 95%  
61 4% 93%  
62 5% 89% Last Result
63 7% 83%  
64 8% 77%  
65 9% 69%  
66 10% 60%  
67 8% 50% Median
68 9% 42%  
69 8% 33%  
70 7% 25%  
71 6% 19%  
72 4% 13%  
73 3% 9%  
74 2% 6%  
75 1.5% 4%  
76 0.9% 2%  
77 0.6% 1.2%  
78 0.3% 0.7%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 0.5% 99.5%  
52 1.1% 99.0% Last Result
53 1.5% 98%  
54 3% 96%  
55 3% 93%  
56 5% 90%  
57 7% 85%  
58 7% 78%  
59 9% 71%  
60 8% 61%  
61 10% 53% Median
62 9% 43%  
63 8% 34%  
64 8% 26%  
65 5% 19%  
66 5% 14%  
67 3% 9%  
68 2% 6%  
69 2% 4%  
70 0.9% 2%  
71 0.5% 1.2%  
72 0.4% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.4% 99.7%  
32 0.8% 99.3%  
33 2% 98.5%  
34 3% 97%  
35 5% 94%  
36 6% 89%  
37 8% 82%  
38 10% 74%  
39 11% 65%  
40 11% 53% Median
41 10% 42%  
42 9% 32%  
43 8% 23%  
44 5% 15%  
45 4% 10%  
46 2% 6%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.0% 2%  
49 0.5% 1.0%  
50 0.3% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
53 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations