Opinion Poll by Karmasin for PULS 24, 29 August–3 September 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 35.0% | 33.9–36.1% | 33.6–36.5% | 33.3–36.7% | 32.8–37.3% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 21.0% | 20.1–22.0% | 19.8–22.3% | 19.6–22.5% | 19.1–23.0% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 20.0% | 19.1–21.0% | 18.8–21.2% | 18.6–21.5% | 18.2–21.9% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 12.0% | 11.3–12.8% | 11.1–13.0% | 10.9–13.2% | 10.5–13.6% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 9.0% | 8.4–9.7% | 8.2–9.9% | 8.0–10.1% | 7.7–10.4% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 1.0% | 0.8–1.3% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.6–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 66 | 64–69 | 64–69 | 63–70 | 62–71 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 40 | 38–41 | 37–42 | 37–42 | 36–43 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 38 | 36–40 | 35–40 | 35–40 | 34–41 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 22 | 21–24 | 21–24 | 20–25 | 20–25 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 17 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 14–19 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 63 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 64 | 9% | 96% | |
| 65 | 17% | 87% | |
| 66 | 24% | 70% | Median |
| 67 | 22% | 47% | |
| 68 | 14% | 24% | |
| 69 | 7% | 10% | |
| 70 | 2% | 3% | |
| 71 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 5% | 98.8% | |
| 38 | 14% | 94% | |
| 39 | 26% | 79% | |
| 40 | 26% | 54% | Median |
| 41 | 18% | 27% | |
| 42 | 7% | 10% | |
| 43 | 2% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 4% | 99.1% | |
| 36 | 13% | 95% | |
| 37 | 25% | 82% | |
| 38 | 29% | 57% | Median |
| 39 | 18% | 28% | |
| 40 | 8% | 10% | |
| 41 | 2% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 20 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 21 | 15% | 96% | |
| 22 | 33% | 81% | Median |
| 23 | 30% | 48% | |
| 24 | 14% | 18% | |
| 25 | 4% | 4% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 9% | 99.0% | |
| 16 | 29% | 90% | |
| 17 | 38% | 60% | Median |
| 18 | 18% | 22% | |
| 19 | 4% | 4% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 106 | 100% | 104–108 | 103–109 | 103–109 | 102–110 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 106 | 100% | 103–108 | 103–108 | 102–109 | 101–110 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 104 | 100% | 102–106 | 101–107 | 101–107 | 100–109 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 89 | 6% | 87–91 | 86–92 | 85–92 | 84–93 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 83 | 0% | 81–85 | 80–86 | 80–87 | 79–88 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 62 | 79 | 0% | 77–81 | 76–82 | 76–82 | 74–83 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 77 | 0% | 75–80 | 75–80 | 74–81 | 73–82 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 66 | 0% | 64–69 | 64–69 | 63–70 | 62–71 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 52 | 62 | 0% | 60–64 | 59–65 | 59–65 | 58–66 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 40 | 0% | 38–41 | 37–42 | 37–42 | 36–43 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 103 | 5% | 98% | |
| 104 | 12% | 93% | |
| 105 | 20% | 82% | |
| 106 | 23% | 62% | Median |
| 107 | 20% | 39% | |
| 108 | 12% | 19% | |
| 109 | 5% | 7% | |
| 110 | 2% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 102 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 103 | 7% | 96% | |
| 104 | 15% | 89% | |
| 105 | 22% | 74% | Median |
| 106 | 21% | 52% | |
| 107 | 18% | 31% | |
| 108 | 9% | 14% | |
| 109 | 3% | 4% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 101 | 5% | 98% | |
| 102 | 10% | 93% | |
| 103 | 19% | 84% | |
| 104 | 24% | 64% | Median |
| 105 | 19% | 40% | |
| 106 | 12% | 21% | |
| 107 | 6% | 8% | |
| 108 | 2% | 2% | |
| 109 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 86 | 6% | 97% | |
| 87 | 13% | 91% | |
| 88 | 20% | 78% | Median |
| 89 | 23% | 58% | |
| 90 | 18% | 35% | |
| 91 | 11% | 17% | |
| 92 | 5% | 6% | Majority |
| 93 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 94 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 1.5% | 99.6% | |
| 80 | 5% | 98% | |
| 81 | 10% | 93% | |
| 82 | 19% | 83% | |
| 83 | 23% | 64% | Median |
| 84 | 19% | 41% | |
| 85 | 13% | 22% | |
| 86 | 6% | 9% | |
| 87 | 2% | 3% | |
| 88 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 76 | 6% | 98% | |
| 77 | 12% | 92% | |
| 78 | 19% | 79% | |
| 79 | 24% | 60% | Median |
| 80 | 19% | 36% | |
| 81 | 10% | 16% | |
| 82 | 5% | 7% | |
| 83 | 2% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 74 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 75 | 9% | 96% | |
| 76 | 18% | 86% | |
| 77 | 21% | 69% | |
| 78 | 22% | 48% | Median |
| 79 | 15% | 26% | |
| 80 | 7% | 11% | |
| 81 | 3% | 4% | |
| 82 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 63 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 64 | 9% | 96% | |
| 65 | 17% | 87% | |
| 66 | 24% | 70% | Median |
| 67 | 22% | 47% | |
| 68 | 14% | 24% | |
| 69 | 7% | 10% | |
| 70 | 2% | 3% | |
| 71 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 58 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 60 | 11% | 95% | |
| 61 | 19% | 84% | |
| 62 | 24% | 65% | Median |
| 63 | 22% | 41% | |
| 64 | 12% | 19% | |
| 65 | 6% | 8% | |
| 66 | 2% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 5% | 98.8% | |
| 38 | 14% | 94% | |
| 39 | 26% | 79% | |
| 40 | 26% | 54% | Median |
| 41 | 18% | 27% | |
| 42 | 7% | 10% | |
| 43 | 2% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Karmasin
- Commissioner(s): PULS 24
- Fieldwork period: 29 August–3 September 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 3000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.49%