Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 2–4 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 31.5% 34.0% 31.9–36.2% 31.3–36.8% 30.8–37.4% 29.8–38.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 26.9% 22.0% 20.2–24.0% 19.7–24.5% 19.3–25.0% 18.4–26.0%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 26.0% 21.0% 19.2–22.9% 18.7–23.5% 18.3–24.0% 17.5–24.9%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 3.8% 11.0% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–13.0% 9.0–13.4% 8.4–14.1%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 5.3% 9.0% 7.8–10.4% 7.5–10.8% 7.2–11.2% 6.7–11.9%
JETZT–Liste Pilz 4.4% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 1.0–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 64 60–68 59–70 58–71 56–73
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 42 38–45 37–46 36–47 35–49
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 51 40 36–43 35–44 34–45 33–47
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 0 21 18–23 17–24 17–25 16–26
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 10 17 14–19 14–20 13–21 12–22
JETZT–Liste Pilz 8 0 0 0 0 0

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.4% 99.8%  
57 0.9% 99.4%  
58 2% 98%  
59 3% 97%  
60 5% 94%  
61 8% 89%  
62 9% 81% Last Result
63 12% 72%  
64 12% 60% Median
65 13% 48%  
66 10% 35%  
67 9% 25%  
68 6% 16%  
69 4% 9%  
70 2% 5%  
71 1.4% 3%  
72 0.7% 1.3%  
73 0.3% 0.6%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 0.8% 99.6%  
36 2% 98.8%  
37 4% 97%  
38 7% 93%  
39 10% 86%  
40 13% 77%  
41 13% 64%  
42 15% 51% Median
43 12% 36%  
44 10% 24%  
45 6% 14%  
46 4% 8%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.0% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.8%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.7% 99.7%  
34 2% 98.9%  
35 3% 97%  
36 6% 94%  
37 9% 87%  
38 13% 78%  
39 14% 65%  
40 15% 51% Median
41 12% 37%  
42 10% 25%  
43 7% 15%  
44 4% 8%  
45 2% 4%  
46 0.9% 2%  
47 0.5% 0.8%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Last Result

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.4% 99.9%  
16 2% 99.5%  
17 4% 98%  
18 9% 94%  
19 15% 85%  
20 19% 70%  
21 18% 51% Median
22 15% 33%  
23 10% 19%  
24 5% 9%  
25 2% 4%  
26 0.9% 1.4%  
27 0.3% 0.5%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.7% 99.9%  
13 3% 99.2%  
14 7% 97%  
15 14% 89%  
16 19% 75%  
17 20% 56% Median
18 17% 36%  
19 10% 19%  
20 5% 9%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.9% 1.2%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

JETZT–Liste Pilz

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 114 106 100% 102–110 100–111 99–112 97–114
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 113 104 100% 100–108 99–109 97–110 95–113
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 102 99.9% 98–106 96–107 95–108 93–110
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 85 2% 81–89 80–91 78–91 76–94
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 103 81 0.1% 77–85 76–87 75–88 73–90
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 81 0.1% 77–85 76–87 75–88 73–90
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 62 79 0% 75–83 74–84 73–85 70–88
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 64 0% 60–68 59–70 58–71 56–73
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 52 62 0% 58–66 57–67 56–68 54–70
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 42 0% 38–45 37–46 36–47 35–49

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.4% 99.8%  
98 0.7% 99.4%  
99 1.4% 98.7%  
100 3% 97%  
101 5% 95%  
102 6% 90%  
103 8% 85%  
104 10% 77%  
105 11% 66%  
106 13% 56% Median
107 11% 43%  
108 11% 32%  
109 7% 21%  
110 6% 13%  
111 3% 8%  
112 2% 5%  
113 1.1% 2%  
114 0.6% 1.0% Last Result
115 0.2% 0.4%  
116 0.1% 0.2%  
117 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.3% 99.8%  
96 0.7% 99.5%  
97 1.3% 98.8%  
98 2% 97%  
99 4% 95%  
100 6% 91%  
101 8% 86%  
102 9% 77%  
103 13% 68%  
104 11% 54% Median
105 11% 44%  
106 10% 32%  
107 8% 22%  
108 5% 14%  
109 4% 8%  
110 2% 5%  
111 1.2% 2%  
112 0.6% 1.1%  
113 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.2% 99.9% Majority
93 0.3% 99.7%  
94 0.7% 99.4%  
95 1.5% 98.7%  
96 3% 97%  
97 4% 94%  
98 6% 91%  
99 8% 84%  
100 11% 76%  
101 12% 65%  
102 11% 53% Median
103 11% 42%  
104 10% 31%  
105 8% 21%  
106 5% 13%  
107 4% 8%  
108 2% 4%  
109 1.2% 2%  
110 0.6% 1.0%  
111 0.2% 0.4%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.8%  
77 0.6% 99.5%  
78 1.4% 98.9%  
79 2% 97%  
80 4% 95%  
81 6% 91%  
82 8% 85%  
83 10% 77%  
84 11% 67%  
85 13% 56% Median
86 11% 43%  
87 9% 32%  
88 9% 23%  
89 6% 14%  
90 3% 8%  
91 3% 5%  
92 1.3% 2% Majority
93 0.5% 1.1%  
94 0.3% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.6% 99.6%  
74 1.2% 99.0%  
75 2% 98%  
76 4% 96%  
77 5% 92%  
78 8% 87%  
79 10% 79%  
80 11% 69%  
81 11% 58%  
82 12% 47% Median
83 11% 35%  
84 8% 24%  
85 6% 16%  
86 4% 9%  
87 3% 6%  
88 1.4% 3%  
89 0.7% 1.3%  
90 0.3% 0.6%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.1% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
73 0.6% 99.6%  
74 1.1% 99.0%  
75 2% 98%  
76 3% 96%  
77 6% 92%  
78 8% 87%  
79 9% 79%  
80 11% 69%  
81 12% 59% Median
82 12% 46%  
83 10% 34%  
84 9% 24%  
85 5% 15%  
86 4% 10%  
87 3% 5%  
88 1.5% 3%  
89 0.7% 1.3%  
90 0.4% 0.6%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1% Majority
93 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.8%  
71 0.6% 99.5%  
72 1.2% 98.9%  
73 2% 98%  
74 4% 95%  
75 5% 91%  
76 8% 86%  
77 10% 78%  
78 11% 67%  
79 11% 56%  
80 13% 46% Median
81 9% 32%  
82 8% 23%  
83 6% 14%  
84 4% 9%  
85 2% 5%  
86 1.3% 2%  
87 0.7% 1.2%  
88 0.3% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.4% 99.8%  
57 0.9% 99.4%  
58 2% 98%  
59 3% 97%  
60 5% 94%  
61 8% 89%  
62 9% 81% Last Result
63 12% 72%  
64 12% 60% Median
65 13% 48%  
66 10% 35%  
67 9% 25%  
68 6% 16%  
69 4% 9%  
70 2% 5%  
71 1.4% 3%  
72 0.7% 1.3%  
73 0.3% 0.6%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100% Last Result
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.8%  
55 0.9% 99.3%  
56 2% 98%  
57 3% 97%  
58 5% 93%  
59 8% 88%  
60 10% 80%  
61 11% 70%  
62 12% 58%  
63 12% 46% Median
64 11% 34%  
65 9% 23%  
66 6% 15%  
67 4% 8%  
68 2% 5%  
69 1.3% 2%  
70 0.6% 1.1%  
71 0.3% 0.5%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 0.8% 99.6%  
36 2% 98.8%  
37 4% 97%  
38 7% 93%  
39 10% 86%  
40 13% 77%  
41 13% 64%  
42 15% 51% Median
43 12% 36%  
44 10% 24%  
45 6% 14%  
46 4% 8%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.0% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.8%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations