Opinion Poll by Research Affairs for ÖSTERREICH, 6–11 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 31.5% 35.0% 32.4–37.8% 31.7–38.6% 31.0–39.3% 29.8–40.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 26.9% 21.9% 19.7–24.4% 19.1–25.1% 18.5–25.7% 17.5–26.9%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 26.0% 19.0% 16.9–21.4% 16.3–22.0% 15.8–22.6% 14.9–23.8%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 3.8% 11.0% 9.4–12.9% 8.9–13.5% 8.5–14.0% 7.8–15.0%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 5.3% 9.0% 7.6–10.8% 7.1–11.4% 6.8–11.8% 6.2–12.7%
JETZT–Liste Pilz 4.4% 1.0% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.4–2.3% 0.3–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 66 61–72 60–73 58–75 56–77
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 41 37–46 36–47 35–49 33–51
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 51 36 32–40 31–42 30–43 28–45
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 0 21 17–24 16–25 16–26 14–28
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 10 17 14–20 13–21 12–22 11–24
JETZT–Liste Pilz 8 0 0 0 0 0

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.4% 99.6%  
57 0.7% 99.3%  
58 1.2% 98.6%  
59 2% 97%  
60 3% 95%  
61 4% 93%  
62 6% 88% Last Result
63 7% 83%  
64 8% 76%  
65 9% 68%  
66 9% 59% Median
67 10% 49%  
68 9% 40%  
69 8% 31%  
70 6% 23%  
71 5% 16%  
72 4% 11%  
73 3% 7%  
74 2% 5%  
75 1.1% 3%  
76 0.7% 2%  
77 0.4% 0.8%  
78 0.2% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.6% 99.6%  
34 1.2% 99.1%  
35 2% 98%  
36 4% 96%  
37 5% 92%  
38 8% 87%  
39 9% 80%  
40 10% 71%  
41 13% 62% Median
42 10% 49%  
43 11% 39%  
44 9% 29%  
45 6% 20%  
46 5% 14%  
47 3% 8%  
48 2% 5%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.6% 1.4%  
51 0.4% 0.8%  
52 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.6% 99.6%  
29 1.2% 99.1%  
30 3% 98%  
31 4% 95%  
32 7% 91%  
33 9% 84%  
34 11% 75%  
35 9% 64%  
36 11% 55% Median
37 10% 43%  
38 11% 33%  
39 8% 22%  
40 6% 15%  
41 4% 9%  
42 2% 5%  
43 1.2% 3%  
44 0.8% 2%  
45 0.4% 0.8%  
46 0.2% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Last Result

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.4% 99.9%  
15 2% 99.5%  
16 4% 98%  
17 6% 94%  
18 9% 88%  
19 11% 78%  
20 14% 67%  
21 14% 53% Median
22 14% 39%  
23 11% 25%  
24 7% 14%  
25 4% 7%  
26 2% 4%  
27 0.9% 2%  
28 0.5% 0.9%  
29 0.2% 0.4%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100% Last Result
11 0.6% 99.9%  
12 2% 99.3%  
13 4% 97%  
14 9% 93%  
15 12% 84%  
16 16% 72%  
17 16% 56% Median
18 14% 40%  
19 10% 26%  
20 8% 15%  
21 4% 8%  
22 2% 4%  
23 1.1% 2%  
24 0.4% 0.7%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

JETZT–Liste Pilz

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 114 108 100% 102–114 100–115 99–117 96–119
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 104 99.7% 98–110 97–111 95–113 92–115
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 113 102 99.2% 97–108 95–110 93–111 90–114
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 87 17% 82–93 80–94 78–96 76–98
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 83 3% 78–89 76–91 75–92 72–95
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 62 79 0.2% 74–85 72–86 71–88 68–90
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 103 77 0% 72–83 70–84 69–86 66–89
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 66 0% 61–72 60–73 58–75 56–77
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 52 62 0% 57–67 56–69 54–70 52–73
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 41 0% 37–46 36–47 35–49 33–51

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.3% 99.7%  
97 0.5% 99.4%  
98 0.8% 98.9%  
99 1.2% 98%  
100 2% 97%  
101 3% 95%  
102 3% 92%  
103 5% 89%  
104 6% 84%  
105 6% 78%  
106 9% 72%  
107 8% 63% Median
108 9% 55%  
109 9% 46%  
110 8% 37%  
111 8% 30%  
112 6% 22%  
113 5% 15%  
114 4% 11% Last Result
115 2% 7%  
116 2% 5%  
117 1.1% 3%  
118 0.7% 1.4%  
119 0.4% 0.7%  
120 0.2% 0.3%  
121 0.1% 0.2%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.3% 99.7% Majority
93 0.4% 99.4%  
94 0.9% 99.0%  
95 1.1% 98%  
96 2% 97%  
97 2% 95%  
98 3% 93%  
99 5% 90%  
100 5% 85%  
101 7% 80%  
102 9% 72%  
103 6% 63%  
104 10% 57% Median
105 8% 48%  
106 11% 40%  
107 8% 30%  
108 5% 22%  
109 6% 17%  
110 3% 11%  
111 3% 8%  
112 1.5% 4%  
113 1.3% 3%  
114 1.0% 2%  
115 0.3% 0.7%  
116 0.2% 0.4%  
117 0.1% 0.2%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.8%  
91 0.3% 99.5%  
92 0.6% 99.2% Majority
93 1.2% 98.6%  
94 1.4% 97%  
95 2% 96%  
96 3% 94%  
97 4% 91%  
98 6% 87%  
99 7% 81%  
100 9% 75%  
101 9% 66%  
102 9% 57% Median
103 8% 47%  
104 7% 39%  
105 7% 32%  
106 5% 25%  
107 6% 20%  
108 5% 13%  
109 3% 9%  
110 2% 5%  
111 1.3% 3%  
112 0.7% 2%  
113 0.4% 0.9% Last Result
114 0.2% 0.5%  
115 0.1% 0.3%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.8%  
76 0.4% 99.6%  
77 0.8% 99.2%  
78 0.9% 98%  
79 1.5% 97%  
80 3% 96%  
81 3% 93%  
82 5% 90%  
83 6% 85%  
84 8% 80%  
85 6% 72%  
86 10% 66%  
87 9% 56% Median
88 7% 46%  
89 9% 39%  
90 7% 30%  
91 6% 22%  
92 5% 17% Majority
93 5% 12%  
94 2% 7%  
95 2% 5%  
96 1.2% 3%  
97 0.7% 1.5%  
98 0.4% 0.8%  
99 0.3% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.8%  
72 0.3% 99.7% Last Result
73 0.5% 99.4%  
74 1.0% 98.9%  
75 2% 98%  
76 2% 96%  
77 3% 94%  
78 4% 92%  
79 6% 87%  
80 6% 81%  
81 8% 75%  
82 8% 66%  
83 9% 59% Median
84 9% 50%  
85 8% 40%  
86 8% 32%  
87 6% 24%  
88 5% 17%  
89 4% 12%  
90 3% 8%  
91 2% 5%  
92 1.3% 3% Majority
93 0.9% 2%  
94 0.5% 1.0%  
95 0.3% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.3% 99.7%  
69 0.6% 99.4%  
70 0.8% 98.8%  
71 2% 98%  
72 2% 96%  
73 3% 94%  
74 5% 90%  
75 6% 86%  
76 8% 80%  
77 7% 72%  
78 9% 65%  
79 8% 57% Median
80 9% 49%  
81 9% 41%  
82 8% 32%  
83 8% 23%  
84 5% 16%  
85 4% 11%  
86 2% 6%  
87 1.4% 4%  
88 1.2% 3%  
89 0.7% 2%  
90 0.5% 1.0%  
91 0.3% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.2% Majority
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.8%  
67 0.5% 99.5%  
68 0.7% 99.0%  
69 2% 98%  
70 2% 97%  
71 3% 94%  
72 5% 92%  
73 4% 87%  
74 8% 83%  
75 7% 75%  
76 9% 68%  
77 12% 60% Median
78 7% 48%  
79 10% 41%  
80 5% 31%  
81 8% 26%  
82 6% 18%  
83 3% 12%  
84 4% 9%  
85 2% 5%  
86 1.2% 3%  
87 0.9% 2%  
88 0.3% 0.9%  
89 0.4% 0.6%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.4% 99.6%  
57 0.7% 99.3%  
58 1.2% 98.6%  
59 2% 97%  
60 3% 95%  
61 4% 93%  
62 6% 88% Last Result
63 7% 83%  
64 8% 76%  
65 9% 68%  
66 9% 59% Median
67 10% 49%  
68 9% 40%  
69 8% 31%  
70 6% 23%  
71 5% 16%  
72 4% 11%  
73 3% 7%  
74 2% 5%  
75 1.1% 3%  
76 0.7% 2%  
77 0.4% 0.8%  
78 0.2% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.4% 99.7% Last Result
53 0.8% 99.3%  
54 1.3% 98%  
55 2% 97%  
56 3% 95%  
57 4% 92%  
58 5% 88%  
59 7% 82%  
60 9% 75%  
61 9% 66%  
62 10% 57% Median
63 10% 47%  
64 8% 37%  
65 7% 29%  
66 7% 22%  
67 5% 15%  
68 3% 10%  
69 3% 6%  
70 2% 4%  
71 0.8% 2%  
72 0.6% 1.2%  
73 0.3% 0.6%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.6% 99.6%  
34 1.2% 99.1%  
35 2% 98%  
36 4% 96%  
37 5% 92%  
38 8% 87%  
39 9% 80%  
40 10% 71%  
41 13% 62% Median
42 10% 49%  
43 11% 39%  
44 9% 29%  
45 6% 20%  
46 5% 14%  
47 3% 8%  
48 2% 5%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.6% 1.4%  
51 0.4% 0.8%  
52 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations