Opinion Poll by OGM for KURIER, 6–13 September 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 35.0% | 33.7–36.3% | 33.3–36.7% | 33.0–37.0% | 32.4–37.7% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 22.0% | 20.9–23.2% | 20.6–23.5% | 20.3–23.8% | 19.8–24.4% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 20.0% | 18.9–21.1% | 18.6–21.4% | 18.4–21.7% | 17.8–22.3% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 11.0% | 10.2–11.9% | 9.9–12.1% | 9.7–12.4% | 9.3–12.8% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 8.0% | 7.3–8.8% | 7.1–9.0% | 6.9–9.2% | 6.6–9.6% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.4% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.3–2.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 67 | 65–70 | 64–70 | 63–71 | 62–72 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 42 | 40–44 | 39–45 | 39–45 | 38–47 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 38 | 36–40 | 35–41 | 35–41 | 34–42 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 21 | 19–22 | 19–23 | 18–23 | 18–24 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 15 | 14–16 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–18 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 63 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 64 | 6% | 97% | |
| 65 | 12% | 91% | |
| 66 | 18% | 79% | |
| 67 | 21% | 61% | Median |
| 68 | 18% | 40% | |
| 69 | 12% | 23% | |
| 70 | 7% | 11% | |
| 71 | 3% | 4% | |
| 72 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 38 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 39 | 5% | 98% | |
| 40 | 12% | 93% | |
| 41 | 19% | 82% | |
| 42 | 24% | 63% | Median |
| 43 | 19% | 39% | |
| 44 | 12% | 20% | |
| 45 | 5% | 8% | |
| 46 | 2% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 34 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 36 | 10% | 95% | |
| 37 | 19% | 85% | |
| 38 | 24% | 66% | Median |
| 39 | 21% | 41% | |
| 40 | 13% | 21% | |
| 41 | 6% | 8% | |
| 42 | 2% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 18 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 19 | 12% | 97% | |
| 20 | 30% | 84% | |
| 21 | 29% | 54% | Median |
| 22 | 17% | 25% | |
| 23 | 7% | 8% | |
| 24 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 13 | 8% | 99.1% | |
| 14 | 24% | 91% | |
| 15 | 36% | 68% | Median |
| 16 | 23% | 32% | |
| 17 | 8% | 9% | |
| 18 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 109 | 100% | 107–112 | 106–112 | 105–113 | 104–114 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 105 | 100% | 103–108 | 102–109 | 101–109 | 100–110 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 103 | 100% | 100–105 | 99–106 | 99–107 | 98–108 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 88 | 3% | 85–90 | 84–91 | 84–92 | 83–93 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 82 | 0% | 79–85 | 79–85 | 78–86 | 77–87 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 80 | 0% | 78–83 | 77–84 | 76–84 | 75–85 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 62 | 78 | 0% | 75–80 | 74–81 | 74–82 | 73–83 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 67 | 0% | 65–70 | 64–70 | 63–71 | 62–72 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 52 | 63 | 0% | 60–65 | 60–66 | 59–67 | 58–68 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 42 | 0% | 40–44 | 39–45 | 39–45 | 38–47 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 104 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 105 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 106 | 6% | 96% | |
| 107 | 12% | 90% | |
| 108 | 17% | 79% | |
| 109 | 19% | 62% | Median |
| 110 | 19% | 43% | |
| 111 | 13% | 24% | |
| 112 | 7% | 11% | |
| 113 | 3% | 4% | |
| 114 | 1.0% | 1.4% | Last Result |
| 115 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 101 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 102 | 5% | 97% | |
| 103 | 11% | 91% | |
| 104 | 17% | 81% | |
| 105 | 18% | 64% | Median |
| 106 | 20% | 45% | |
| 107 | 12% | 25% | |
| 108 | 8% | 13% | |
| 109 | 3% | 5% | |
| 110 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 99 | 3% | 98% | |
| 100 | 7% | 95% | |
| 101 | 13% | 87% | |
| 102 | 18% | 74% | |
| 103 | 20% | 56% | Median |
| 104 | 17% | 36% | |
| 105 | 10% | 19% | |
| 106 | 6% | 9% | |
| 107 | 2% | 3% | |
| 108 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 84 | 3% | 98% | |
| 85 | 8% | 95% | |
| 86 | 13% | 87% | |
| 87 | 19% | 74% | |
| 88 | 19% | 55% | Median |
| 89 | 17% | 36% | |
| 90 | 10% | 19% | |
| 91 | 5% | 9% | |
| 92 | 2% | 3% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 78 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 79 | 6% | 96% | |
| 80 | 11% | 90% | |
| 81 | 18% | 79% | |
| 82 | 20% | 61% | Median |
| 83 | 18% | 42% | |
| 84 | 13% | 24% | |
| 85 | 7% | 11% | |
| 86 | 3% | 5% | |
| 87 | 1.1% | 1.5% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 76 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 77 | 6% | 97% | |
| 78 | 10% | 91% | |
| 79 | 17% | 81% | |
| 80 | 20% | 64% | Median |
| 81 | 18% | 44% | |
| 82 | 13% | 26% | |
| 83 | 7% | 13% | |
| 84 | 3% | 5% | |
| 85 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 74 | 3% | 98% | |
| 75 | 8% | 95% | |
| 76 | 12% | 87% | |
| 77 | 20% | 75% | |
| 78 | 18% | 55% | Median |
| 79 | 17% | 36% | |
| 80 | 11% | 19% | |
| 81 | 5% | 9% | |
| 82 | 2% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 63 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 64 | 6% | 97% | |
| 65 | 12% | 91% | |
| 66 | 18% | 79% | |
| 67 | 21% | 61% | Median |
| 68 | 18% | 40% | |
| 69 | 12% | 23% | |
| 70 | 7% | 11% | |
| 71 | 3% | 4% | |
| 72 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 59 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 60 | 8% | 96% | |
| 61 | 13% | 88% | |
| 62 | 22% | 76% | |
| 63 | 19% | 54% | Median |
| 64 | 18% | 35% | |
| 65 | 10% | 18% | |
| 66 | 5% | 8% | |
| 67 | 2% | 3% | |
| 68 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 38 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 39 | 5% | 98% | |
| 40 | 12% | 93% | |
| 41 | 19% | 82% | |
| 42 | 24% | 63% | Median |
| 43 | 19% | 39% | |
| 44 | 12% | 20% | |
| 45 | 5% | 8% | |
| 46 | 2% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: OGM
- Commissioner(s): KURIER
- Fieldwork period: 6–13 September 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 2167
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.49%