Opinion Poll by Karmasin, 11–17 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 31.5% 34.0% 32.9–35.1% 32.6–35.5% 32.3–35.7% 31.8–36.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 26.9% 22.0% 21.0–23.0% 20.8–23.3% 20.5–23.5% 20.1–24.0%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 26.0% 20.0% 19.1–21.0% 18.8–21.2% 18.6–21.5% 18.2–21.9%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 3.8% 13.0% 12.2–13.8% 12.0–14.1% 11.8–14.3% 11.5–14.7%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 5.3% 9.0% 8.4–9.7% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.7–10.4%
JETZT–Liste Pilz 4.4% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 64 62–66 61–66 61–67 60–68
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 41 39–43 39–44 38–44 38–45
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 51 37 36–39 35–40 35–40 34–41
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 0 24 23–26 22–26 22–26 21–27
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 10 17 15–18 15–18 15–19 14–19
JETZT–Liste Pilz 8 0 0 0 0 0

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.4% 100%  
60 2% 99.6%  
61 5% 98%  
62 16% 93% Last Result
63 22% 77%  
64 18% 55% Median
65 21% 36%  
66 11% 15%  
67 3% 4%  
68 1.1% 1.4%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.4% 100%  
38 3% 99.5%  
39 9% 97%  
40 20% 88%  
41 27% 68% Median
42 24% 41%  
43 11% 16%  
44 4% 5%  
45 0.9% 1.1%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 2% 99.8%  
35 7% 98%  
36 19% 91%  
37 26% 72% Median
38 26% 46%  
39 14% 20%  
40 5% 6%  
41 1.0% 1.2%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Last Result

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 1.0% 99.9%  
22 7% 98.9%  
23 22% 92%  
24 32% 70% Median
25 25% 38%  
26 10% 12%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.5% 99.9%  
15 13% 98%  
16 34% 86%  
17 35% 52% Median
18 14% 17%  
19 3% 3%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

JETZT–Liste Pilz

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 114 105 100% 103–107 102–108 102–108 101–109
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 104 100% 102–107 102–107 101–108 100–109
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 113 101 100% 99–103 98–104 98–104 97–106
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 88 2% 86–90 85–91 85–91 84–92
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 62 82 0% 80–84 79–85 79–85 77–86
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 80 0% 78–83 78–83 77–84 76–85
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 103 79 0% 76–81 76–81 75–82 74–83
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 52 65 0% 63–67 63–68 62–69 61–70
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 64 0% 62–66 61–66 61–67 60–68
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 41 0% 39–43 39–44 38–44 38–45

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0.1% 100%  
100 0.4% 99.9%  
101 2% 99.5%  
102 6% 98%  
103 12% 92%  
104 20% 80%  
105 22% 60% Median
106 19% 37%  
107 12% 19%  
108 5% 7%  
109 1.4% 2%  
110 0.3% 0.4%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100% Majority
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0.2% 100%  
100 0.8% 99.8%  
101 3% 99.1%  
102 8% 96%  
103 17% 89%  
104 23% 72%  
105 22% 49% Median
106 15% 27%  
107 8% 13%  
108 3% 4%  
109 0.7% 0.9%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.3% 99.9%  
97 1.3% 99.6%  
98 4% 98%  
99 11% 94%  
100 19% 83%  
101 22% 64% Median
102 21% 43%  
103 13% 22%  
104 6% 9%  
105 2% 2%  
106 0.5% 0.6%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.4% 99.9%  
84 2% 99.5%  
85 5% 98%  
86 13% 92%  
87 19% 80%  
88 24% 60% Median
89 18% 36%  
90 11% 18%  
91 5% 7%  
92 2% 2% Majority
93 0.3% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.5% 99.9%  
78 2% 99.4%  
79 6% 98%  
80 13% 91%  
81 21% 78%  
82 22% 57% Median
83 19% 36%  
84 11% 17%  
85 4% 6%  
86 1.3% 2%  
87 0.3% 0.4%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0.2% 100%  
76 1.0% 99.8%  
77 3% 98.8%  
78 10% 96%  
79 19% 86%  
80 20% 67%  
81 21% 47% Median
82 16% 26%  
83 7% 10%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.6% 0.8%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.7% 99.8%  
75 3% 99.1%  
76 8% 96%  
77 15% 87%  
78 22% 73% Median
79 23% 51%  
80 17% 28%  
81 8% 11%  
82 3% 4%  
83 0.8% 0.9%  
84 0.2% 0.2%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100% Last Result
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0.2% 100%  
61 0.9% 99.8%  
62 4% 98.9%  
63 10% 95%  
64 18% 86%  
65 23% 68% Median
66 22% 45%  
67 14% 23%  
68 6% 9%  
69 2% 3%  
70 0.5% 0.6%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.4% 100%  
60 2% 99.6%  
61 5% 98%  
62 16% 93% Last Result
63 22% 77%  
64 18% 55% Median
65 21% 36%  
66 11% 15%  
67 3% 4%  
68 1.1% 1.4%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.4% 100%  
38 3% 99.5%  
39 9% 97%  
40 20% 88%  
41 27% 68% Median
42 24% 41%  
43 11% 16%  
44 4% 5%  
45 0.9% 1.1%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations