Opinion Poll by Institut für Grundlagenforschung, 1–18 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 31.5% 32.0% 29.8–34.3% 29.2–34.9% 28.6–35.5% 27.6–36.6%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 26.0% 26.1% 24.0–28.3% 23.4–28.9% 23.0–29.4% 22.0–30.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 26.9% 19.0% 17.2–21.0% 16.7–21.6% 16.3–22.1% 15.5–23.1%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 3.8% 11.0% 9.6–12.6% 9.2–13.1% 8.9–13.5% 8.3–14.3%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 5.3% 8.0% 6.9–9.5% 6.5–9.9% 6.2–10.3% 5.7–11.0%
JETZT–Liste Pilz 4.4% 3.5% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–4.9% 2.4–5.2% 2.1–5.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 60 56–65 54–66 53–67 51–69
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 51 49 45–53 44–54 43–55 41–58
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 36 32–39 31–40 30–41 29–43
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 0 20 18–24 17–24 16–25 15–27
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 10 15 12–18 12–18 11–19 10–20
JETZT–Liste Pilz 8 0 0–8 0–9 0–9 0–10

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.3% 99.8%  
52 0.8% 99.5%  
53 1.5% 98.6%  
54 2% 97%  
55 3% 95%  
56 5% 92%  
57 8% 87%  
58 11% 79%  
59 10% 68%  
60 10% 58% Median
61 11% 48%  
62 12% 38% Last Result
63 10% 26%  
64 6% 16%  
65 4% 10%  
66 2% 6%  
67 2% 4%  
68 1.3% 2%  
69 0.7% 1.1%  
70 0.2% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.7%  
42 1.2% 99.3%  
43 2% 98%  
44 3% 96%  
45 6% 93%  
46 9% 87%  
47 10% 78%  
48 11% 68%  
49 14% 57% Median
50 11% 43%  
51 10% 32% Last Result
52 7% 22%  
53 6% 15%  
54 4% 9%  
55 2% 5%  
56 1.2% 2%  
57 0.7% 1.3%  
58 0.3% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 0.7% 99.6%  
30 2% 98.9%  
31 4% 97%  
32 6% 93%  
33 8% 88%  
34 10% 80%  
35 14% 70%  
36 13% 55% Median
37 12% 42%  
38 11% 30%  
39 8% 18%  
40 5% 10%  
41 2% 5%  
42 1.3% 2%  
43 0.5% 0.9%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.5% 99.9%  
16 3% 99.4%  
17 6% 97%  
18 6% 91%  
19 14% 85%  
20 22% 71% Median
21 16% 49%  
22 10% 33%  
23 12% 23%  
24 7% 11%  
25 2% 4%  
26 1.2% 2%  
27 0.5% 0.7%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.6% 99.9% Last Result
11 2% 99.3%  
12 7% 97%  
13 11% 90%  
14 19% 78%  
15 21% 59% Median
16 15% 38%  
17 13% 24%  
18 6% 10%  
19 2% 4%  
20 1.3% 2%  
21 0.3% 0.4%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

JETZT–Liste Pilz

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Median
1 0% 26%  
2 0% 26%  
3 0% 26%  
4 0% 26%  
5 0% 26%  
6 0% 26%  
7 9% 26%  
8 12% 18% Last Result
9 5% 6%  
10 0.9% 1.1%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 113 110 100% 103–114 102–117 101–118 99–119
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 114 96 88% 91–101 90–102 88–104 86–106
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 96 87% 91–101 89–102 88–103 86–106
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 103 85 4% 80–90 79–91 77–92 75–95
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 81 0.2% 76–86 74–87 73–88 71–91
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 75 0% 70–80 69–81 68–83 66–85
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 62 73 0% 66–75 65–76 64–78 63–81
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 60 0% 56–65 54–66 53–67 51–69
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 52 57 0% 52–61 51–62 50–63 48–65
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 36 0% 32–39 31–40 30–41 29–43

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.3% 99.8%  
100 0.9% 99.4%  
101 2% 98.6%  
102 4% 96%  
103 4% 93%  
104 3% 89%  
105 2% 86%  
106 2% 84%  
107 4% 82%  
108 11% 78%  
109 15% 67% Median
110 18% 52%  
111 13% 34%  
112 7% 21%  
113 3% 14% Last Result
114 1.2% 11%  
115 1.2% 10%  
116 2% 8%  
117 3% 6%  
118 2% 3%  
119 0.9% 1.3%  
120 0.3% 0.4%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.8%  
86 0.4% 99.6%  
87 0.8% 99.2%  
88 1.2% 98%  
89 2% 97%  
90 3% 95%  
91 4% 92%  
92 6% 88% Majority
93 7% 81%  
94 7% 75%  
95 10% 67%  
96 10% 57% Median
97 9% 47%  
98 10% 38%  
99 7% 28%  
100 7% 21%  
101 4% 13%  
102 5% 9%  
103 2% 5%  
104 1.5% 3%  
105 1.0% 2%  
106 0.3% 0.6%  
107 0.2% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.8%  
86 0.6% 99.5%  
87 1.0% 99.0%  
88 2% 98%  
89 2% 96%  
90 3% 94%  
91 4% 91%  
92 6% 87% Majority
93 8% 80%  
94 8% 72%  
95 10% 65% Median
96 9% 55%  
97 9% 46%  
98 10% 37%  
99 8% 27%  
100 7% 19%  
101 5% 12%  
102 3% 8%  
103 2% 5%  
104 1.1% 2%  
105 0.6% 1.3%  
106 0.4% 0.7%  
107 0.2% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.7%  
76 0.7% 99.3%  
77 1.4% 98.7%  
78 2% 97%  
79 3% 95%  
80 5% 92%  
81 5% 87%  
82 7% 82%  
83 10% 75%  
84 10% 65%  
85 11% 55% Median
86 9% 44%  
87 9% 35%  
88 9% 26%  
89 6% 18%  
90 5% 12%  
91 3% 7%  
92 2% 4% Majority
93 1.2% 2%  
94 0.6% 1.2%  
95 0.3% 0.5%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.5% 99.7%  
72 0.7% 99.2%  
73 2% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 3% 95%  
76 5% 92%  
77 6% 87%  
78 8% 82%  
79 9% 74%  
80 10% 65% Median
81 10% 55%  
82 10% 45%  
83 10% 35%  
84 7% 25%  
85 6% 18%  
86 4% 11%  
87 3% 7%  
88 2% 4%  
89 1.0% 2%  
90 0.6% 1.1%  
91 0.3% 0.6%  
92 0.1% 0.2% Majority
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.8%  
66 0.5% 99.5%  
67 1.1% 99.0%  
68 2% 98%  
69 3% 96%  
70 4% 93%  
71 5% 90%  
72 7% 84% Last Result
73 9% 77%  
74 10% 68%  
75 11% 58% Median
76 9% 47%  
77 9% 38%  
78 9% 29%  
79 7% 20%  
80 5% 13%  
81 3% 8%  
82 2% 5%  
83 1.4% 3%  
84 0.7% 1.4%  
85 0.4% 0.7%  
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
63 0.8% 99.7%  
64 3% 98.9%  
65 5% 96%  
66 6% 91%  
67 5% 85%  
68 2% 80%  
69 2% 78%  
70 3% 76%  
71 8% 73% Median
72 14% 65%  
73 19% 51%  
74 15% 31%  
75 10% 16%  
76 3% 7%  
77 1.0% 4%  
78 0.5% 3%  
79 0.6% 2%  
80 0.7% 2%  
81 0.5% 0.9%  
82 0.3% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.3% 99.8%  
52 0.8% 99.5%  
53 1.5% 98.6%  
54 2% 97%  
55 3% 95%  
56 5% 92%  
57 8% 87%  
58 11% 79%  
59 10% 68%  
60 10% 58% Median
61 11% 48%  
62 12% 38% Last Result
63 10% 26%  
64 6% 16%  
65 4% 10%  
66 2% 6%  
67 2% 4%  
68 1.3% 2%  
69 0.7% 1.1%  
70 0.2% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.6% 99.6%  
49 1.3% 99.1%  
50 2% 98%  
51 4% 95%  
52 5% 91% Last Result
53 6% 87%  
54 7% 81%  
55 8% 73%  
56 10% 65% Median
57 12% 55%  
58 14% 43%  
59 12% 29%  
60 7% 18%  
61 5% 11%  
62 3% 5%  
63 1.4% 3%  
64 0.7% 1.4%  
65 0.3% 0.7%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 0.7% 99.6%  
30 2% 98.9%  
31 4% 97%  
32 6% 93%  
33 8% 88%  
34 10% 80%  
35 14% 70%  
36 13% 55% Median
37 12% 42%  
38 11% 30%  
39 8% 18%  
40 5% 10%  
41 2% 5%  
42 1.3% 2%  
43 0.5% 0.9%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations