Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 16–18 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 31.5% 35.0% 32.9–37.2% 32.3–37.8% 31.8–38.3% 30.8–39.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 26.9% 23.0% 21.1–24.9% 20.6–25.5% 20.2–26.0% 19.3–27.0%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 26.0% 20.0% 18.3–21.9% 17.8–22.4% 17.4–22.9% 16.6–23.8%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 3.8% 11.0% 9.7–12.6% 9.4–13.0% 9.1–13.4% 8.5–14.2%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 5.3% 7.9% 6.8–9.3% 6.5–9.7% 6.3–10.0% 5.8–10.7%
JETZT–Liste Pilz 4.4% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 1.0–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 66 62–70 61–72 60–73 58–75
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 43 40–47 39–48 38–49 36–51
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 51 38 34–41 33–42 33–43 31–45
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 0 21 18–24 17–24 17–25 16–27
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 10 15 13–17 12–18 11–19 11–20
JETZT–Liste Pilz 8 0 0 0 0 0

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.4% 99.7%  
59 0.8% 99.4%  
60 2% 98.6%  
61 3% 97%  
62 5% 94% Last Result
63 7% 89%  
64 9% 81%  
65 12% 72%  
66 14% 60% Median
67 11% 46%  
68 11% 35%  
69 7% 24%  
70 7% 16%  
71 4% 9%  
72 2% 5%  
73 1.3% 3%  
74 0.7% 1.3%  
75 0.4% 0.6%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.4% 99.8%  
37 1.0% 99.5%  
38 2% 98%  
39 4% 96%  
40 7% 92%  
41 10% 85%  
42 13% 75%  
43 14% 62% Median
44 14% 48%  
45 11% 34%  
46 9% 23%  
47 6% 13%  
48 4% 8%  
49 2% 4%  
50 1.0% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.7%  
52 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.6% 99.8%  
32 1.4% 99.2%  
33 3% 98%  
34 6% 94%  
35 9% 89%  
36 13% 79%  
37 14% 66%  
38 16% 52% Median
39 12% 37%  
40 10% 25%  
41 7% 15%  
42 4% 8%  
43 2% 4%  
44 1.2% 2%  
45 0.4% 0.7%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Last Result

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.3% 99.9%  
16 1.3% 99.6%  
17 4% 98%  
18 9% 94%  
19 14% 86%  
20 18% 72%  
21 19% 54% Median
22 15% 35%  
23 10% 20%  
24 6% 10%  
25 3% 4%  
26 1.1% 2%  
27 0.4% 0.5%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.4% 100% Last Result
11 2% 99.5%  
12 7% 97%  
13 14% 91%  
14 20% 77%  
15 21% 57% Median
16 17% 35%  
17 11% 18%  
18 5% 8%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.7% 0.9%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

JETZT–Liste Pilz

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 114 110 100% 106–114 104–115 103–116 101–118
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 113 104 100% 100–108 99–109 98–110 95–112
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 102 99.9% 98–106 96–107 95–108 93–110
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 87 9% 83–91 82–92 81–94 79–96
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 103 81 0.1% 77–85 76–87 75–88 73–90
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 81 0.1% 77–85 76–87 75–88 73–90
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 62 79 0% 75–83 74–84 73–85 71–88
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 66 0% 62–70 61–72 60–73 58–75
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 52 64 0% 60–68 59–69 58–70 56–72
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 43 0% 40–47 39–48 38–49 36–51

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0.1% 100%  
100 0.2% 99.9%  
101 0.4% 99.8%  
102 0.8% 99.3%  
103 2% 98.6%  
104 3% 97%  
105 4% 94%  
106 6% 90%  
107 8% 84%  
108 11% 76%  
109 12% 64% Median
110 13% 52%  
111 11% 39%  
112 9% 29%  
113 7% 20%  
114 6% 13% Last Result
115 3% 7%  
116 2% 4%  
117 0.9% 2%  
118 0.5% 0.8%  
119 0.2% 0.3%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.3% 99.8%  
96 0.7% 99.5%  
97 1.2% 98.8%  
98 2% 98%  
99 4% 95%  
100 5% 91%  
101 8% 86%  
102 9% 78%  
103 13% 69%  
104 12% 56% Median
105 11% 44%  
106 11% 32%  
107 7% 22%  
108 6% 15%  
109 3% 8%  
110 2% 5%  
111 1.2% 2%  
112 0.6% 1.1%  
113 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.2% 99.9% Majority
93 0.3% 99.8%  
94 0.8% 99.4%  
95 1.4% 98.7%  
96 2% 97%  
97 4% 95%  
98 6% 91%  
99 8% 85%  
100 10% 77%  
101 12% 67%  
102 12% 55% Median
103 10% 43%  
104 10% 32%  
105 8% 22%  
106 6% 13%  
107 3% 8%  
108 2% 5%  
109 1.1% 2%  
110 0.6% 1.0%  
111 0.2% 0.4%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.8%  
79 0.7% 99.5%  
80 1.3% 98.9%  
81 2% 98%  
82 4% 95%  
83 6% 92%  
84 8% 85%  
85 10% 78%  
86 11% 68%  
87 13% 57% Median
88 12% 44%  
89 9% 32%  
90 8% 23%  
91 6% 15%  
92 4% 9% Majority
93 2% 5%  
94 1.4% 3%  
95 0.7% 1.2%  
96 0.4% 0.6%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.6% 99.6%  
74 1.1% 99.0%  
75 2% 98%  
76 3% 95%  
77 6% 92%  
78 8% 87%  
79 10% 78%  
80 10% 68%  
81 12% 57% Median
82 12% 45%  
83 10% 33%  
84 8% 23%  
85 6% 15%  
86 4% 9%  
87 2% 5%  
88 1.4% 3%  
89 0.8% 1.3%  
90 0.3% 0.6%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
73 0.6% 99.6%  
74 1.2% 99.0%  
75 2% 98%  
76 4% 96%  
77 5% 92%  
78 8% 87%  
79 9% 78%  
80 11% 69%  
81 12% 58% Median
82 12% 46%  
83 10% 34%  
84 9% 24%  
85 6% 15%  
86 4% 9%  
87 2% 5%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.8% 1.3%  
90 0.3% 0.6%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1% Majority
93 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.8%  
71 0.6% 99.5%  
72 1.2% 98.9%  
73 2% 98%  
74 3% 95%  
75 6% 92%  
76 7% 85%  
77 11% 78%  
78 11% 68%  
79 12% 56% Median
80 13% 44%  
81 9% 31%  
82 8% 22%  
83 5% 14%  
84 4% 9%  
85 2% 5%  
86 1.2% 2%  
87 0.6% 1.2%  
88 0.3% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.4% 99.7%  
59 0.8% 99.4%  
60 2% 98.6%  
61 3% 97%  
62 5% 94% Last Result
63 7% 89%  
64 9% 81%  
65 12% 72%  
66 14% 60% Median
67 11% 46%  
68 11% 35%  
69 7% 24%  
70 7% 16%  
71 4% 9%  
72 2% 5%  
73 1.3% 3%  
74 0.7% 1.3%  
75 0.4% 0.6%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100% Last Result
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.4% 99.7%  
57 1.0% 99.3%  
58 2% 98%  
59 3% 96%  
60 6% 93%  
61 8% 88%  
62 10% 80%  
63 12% 70%  
64 13% 58% Median
65 12% 45%  
66 10% 33%  
67 8% 23%  
68 7% 15%  
69 4% 8%  
70 2% 5%  
71 1.3% 2%  
72 0.6% 1.0%  
73 0.3% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.4% 99.8%  
37 1.0% 99.5%  
38 2% 98%  
39 4% 96%  
40 7% 92%  
41 10% 85%  
42 13% 75%  
43 14% 62% Median
44 14% 48%  
45 11% 34%  
46 9% 23%  
47 6% 13%  
48 4% 8%  
49 2% 4%  
50 1.0% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.7%  
52 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations