Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 16–18 September 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Österreichische Volkspartei |
31.5% |
35.0% |
32.9–37.2% |
32.3–37.8% |
31.8–38.3% |
30.8–39.4% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs |
26.9% |
23.0% |
21.1–24.9% |
20.6–25.5% |
20.2–26.0% |
19.3–27.0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs |
26.0% |
20.0% |
18.3–21.9% |
17.8–22.4% |
17.4–22.9% |
16.6–23.8% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative |
3.8% |
11.0% |
9.7–12.6% |
9.4–13.0% |
9.1–13.4% |
8.5–14.2% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum |
5.3% |
7.9% |
6.8–9.3% |
6.5–9.7% |
6.3–10.0% |
5.8–10.7% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz |
4.4% |
2.0% |
1.5–2.8% |
1.3–3.0% |
1.2–3.2% |
1.0–3.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
56 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
57 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
58 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
|
59 |
0.8% |
99.4% |
|
60 |
2% |
98.6% |
|
61 |
3% |
97% |
|
62 |
5% |
94% |
Last Result |
63 |
7% |
89% |
|
64 |
9% |
81% |
|
65 |
12% |
72% |
|
66 |
14% |
60% |
Median |
67 |
11% |
46% |
|
68 |
11% |
35% |
|
69 |
7% |
24% |
|
70 |
7% |
16% |
|
71 |
4% |
9% |
|
72 |
2% |
5% |
|
73 |
1.3% |
3% |
|
74 |
0.7% |
1.3% |
|
75 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
76 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
77 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
36 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
37 |
1.0% |
99.5% |
|
38 |
2% |
98% |
|
39 |
4% |
96% |
|
40 |
7% |
92% |
|
41 |
10% |
85% |
|
42 |
13% |
75% |
|
43 |
14% |
62% |
Median |
44 |
14% |
48% |
|
45 |
11% |
34% |
|
46 |
9% |
23% |
|
47 |
6% |
13% |
|
48 |
4% |
8% |
|
49 |
2% |
4% |
|
50 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
51 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
52 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
53 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
31 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
32 |
1.4% |
99.2% |
|
33 |
3% |
98% |
|
34 |
6% |
94% |
|
35 |
9% |
89% |
|
36 |
13% |
79% |
|
37 |
14% |
66% |
|
38 |
16% |
52% |
Median |
39 |
12% |
37% |
|
40 |
10% |
25% |
|
41 |
7% |
15% |
|
42 |
4% |
8% |
|
43 |
2% |
4% |
|
44 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
45 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
46 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
1.3% |
99.6% |
|
17 |
4% |
98% |
|
18 |
9% |
94% |
|
19 |
14% |
86% |
|
20 |
18% |
72% |
|
21 |
19% |
54% |
Median |
22 |
15% |
35% |
|
23 |
10% |
20% |
|
24 |
6% |
10% |
|
25 |
3% |
4% |
|
26 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
27 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.4% |
100% |
Last Result |
11 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
12 |
7% |
97% |
|
13 |
14% |
91% |
|
14 |
20% |
77% |
|
15 |
21% |
57% |
Median |
16 |
17% |
35% |
|
17 |
11% |
18% |
|
18 |
5% |
8% |
|
19 |
2% |
3% |
|
20 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs |
114 |
110 |
100% |
106–114 |
104–115 |
103–116 |
101–118 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs |
113 |
104 |
100% |
100–108 |
99–109 |
98–110 |
95–112 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum |
72 |
102 |
99.9% |
98–106 |
96–107 |
95–108 |
93–110 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative |
62 |
87 |
9% |
83–91 |
82–92 |
81–94 |
79–96 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs |
103 |
81 |
0.1% |
77–85 |
76–87 |
75–88 |
73–90 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum |
72 |
81 |
0.1% |
77–85 |
76–87 |
75–88 |
73–90 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum |
62 |
79 |
0% |
75–83 |
74–84 |
73–85 |
71–88 |
Österreichische Volkspartei |
62 |
66 |
0% |
62–70 |
61–72 |
60–73 |
58–75 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative |
52 |
64 |
0% |
60–68 |
59–69 |
58–70 |
56–72 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs |
52 |
43 |
0% |
40–47 |
39–48 |
38–49 |
36–51 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
99 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
100 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
101 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
102 |
0.8% |
99.3% |
|
103 |
2% |
98.6% |
|
104 |
3% |
97% |
|
105 |
4% |
94% |
|
106 |
6% |
90% |
|
107 |
8% |
84% |
|
108 |
11% |
76% |
|
109 |
12% |
64% |
Median |
110 |
13% |
52% |
|
111 |
11% |
39% |
|
112 |
9% |
29% |
|
113 |
7% |
20% |
|
114 |
6% |
13% |
Last Result |
115 |
3% |
7% |
|
116 |
2% |
4% |
|
117 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
118 |
0.5% |
0.8% |
|
119 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
120 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
121 |
0% |
0% |
|
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
93 |
0% |
100% |
|
94 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
95 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
96 |
0.7% |
99.5% |
|
97 |
1.2% |
98.8% |
|
98 |
2% |
98% |
|
99 |
4% |
95% |
|
100 |
5% |
91% |
|
101 |
8% |
86% |
|
102 |
9% |
78% |
|
103 |
13% |
69% |
|
104 |
12% |
56% |
Median |
105 |
11% |
44% |
|
106 |
11% |
32% |
|
107 |
7% |
22% |
|
108 |
6% |
15% |
|
109 |
3% |
8% |
|
110 |
2% |
5% |
|
111 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
112 |
0.6% |
1.1% |
|
113 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
114 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
115 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
116 |
0% |
0% |
|
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
72 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
73 |
0% |
100% |
|
74 |
0% |
100% |
|
75 |
0% |
100% |
|
76 |
0% |
100% |
|
77 |
0% |
100% |
|
78 |
0% |
100% |
|
79 |
0% |
100% |
|
80 |
0% |
100% |
|
81 |
0% |
100% |
|
82 |
0% |
100% |
|
83 |
0% |
100% |
|
84 |
0% |
100% |
|
85 |
0% |
100% |
|
86 |
0% |
100% |
|
87 |
0% |
100% |
|
88 |
0% |
100% |
|
89 |
0% |
100% |
|
90 |
0% |
100% |
|
91 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
92 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
Majority |
93 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
94 |
0.8% |
99.4% |
|
95 |
1.4% |
98.7% |
|
96 |
2% |
97% |
|
97 |
4% |
95% |
|
98 |
6% |
91% |
|
99 |
8% |
85% |
|
100 |
10% |
77% |
|
101 |
12% |
67% |
|
102 |
12% |
55% |
Median |
103 |
10% |
43% |
|
104 |
10% |
32% |
|
105 |
8% |
22% |
|
106 |
6% |
13% |
|
107 |
3% |
8% |
|
108 |
2% |
5% |
|
109 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
110 |
0.6% |
1.0% |
|
111 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
112 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
113 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
114 |
0% |
0% |
|
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
62 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
63 |
0% |
100% |
|
64 |
0% |
100% |
|
65 |
0% |
100% |
|
66 |
0% |
100% |
|
67 |
0% |
100% |
|
68 |
0% |
100% |
|
69 |
0% |
100% |
|
70 |
0% |
100% |
|
71 |
0% |
100% |
|
72 |
0% |
100% |
|
73 |
0% |
100% |
|
74 |
0% |
100% |
|
75 |
0% |
100% |
|
76 |
0% |
100% |
|
77 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
78 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
79 |
0.7% |
99.5% |
|
80 |
1.3% |
98.9% |
|
81 |
2% |
98% |
|
82 |
4% |
95% |
|
83 |
6% |
92% |
|
84 |
8% |
85% |
|
85 |
10% |
78% |
|
86 |
11% |
68% |
|
87 |
13% |
57% |
Median |
88 |
12% |
44% |
|
89 |
9% |
32% |
|
90 |
8% |
23% |
|
91 |
6% |
15% |
|
92 |
4% |
9% |
Majority |
93 |
2% |
5% |
|
94 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
95 |
0.7% |
1.2% |
|
96 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
97 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
98 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
99 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
70 |
0% |
100% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
72 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
73 |
0.6% |
99.6% |
|
74 |
1.1% |
99.0% |
|
75 |
2% |
98% |
|
76 |
3% |
95% |
|
77 |
6% |
92% |
|
78 |
8% |
87% |
|
79 |
10% |
78% |
|
80 |
10% |
68% |
|
81 |
12% |
57% |
Median |
82 |
12% |
45% |
|
83 |
10% |
33% |
|
84 |
8% |
23% |
|
85 |
6% |
15% |
|
86 |
4% |
9% |
|
87 |
2% |
5% |
|
88 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
89 |
0.8% |
1.3% |
|
90 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
91 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
92 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
93 |
0% |
0% |
|
94 |
0% |
0% |
|
95 |
0% |
0% |
|
96 |
0% |
0% |
|
97 |
0% |
0% |
|
98 |
0% |
0% |
|
99 |
0% |
0% |
|
100 |
0% |
0% |
|
101 |
0% |
0% |
|
102 |
0% |
0% |
|
103 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
70 |
0% |
100% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
72 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
73 |
0.6% |
99.6% |
|
74 |
1.2% |
99.0% |
|
75 |
2% |
98% |
|
76 |
4% |
96% |
|
77 |
5% |
92% |
|
78 |
8% |
87% |
|
79 |
9% |
78% |
|
80 |
11% |
69% |
|
81 |
12% |
58% |
Median |
82 |
12% |
46% |
|
83 |
10% |
34% |
|
84 |
9% |
24% |
|
85 |
6% |
15% |
|
86 |
4% |
9% |
|
87 |
2% |
5% |
|
88 |
2% |
3% |
|
89 |
0.8% |
1.3% |
|
90 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
91 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
92 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
93 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
62 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
63 |
0% |
100% |
|
64 |
0% |
100% |
|
65 |
0% |
100% |
|
66 |
0% |
100% |
|
67 |
0% |
100% |
|
68 |
0% |
100% |
|
69 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
70 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
71 |
0.6% |
99.5% |
|
72 |
1.2% |
98.9% |
|
73 |
2% |
98% |
|
74 |
3% |
95% |
|
75 |
6% |
92% |
|
76 |
7% |
85% |
|
77 |
11% |
78% |
|
78 |
11% |
68% |
|
79 |
12% |
56% |
Median |
80 |
13% |
44% |
|
81 |
9% |
31% |
|
82 |
8% |
22% |
|
83 |
5% |
14% |
|
84 |
4% |
9% |
|
85 |
2% |
5% |
|
86 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
87 |
0.6% |
1.2% |
|
88 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
89 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
90 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
91 |
0% |
0% |
|
Österreichische Volkspartei

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
56 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
57 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
58 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
|
59 |
0.8% |
99.4% |
|
60 |
2% |
98.6% |
|
61 |
3% |
97% |
|
62 |
5% |
94% |
Last Result |
63 |
7% |
89% |
|
64 |
9% |
81% |
|
65 |
12% |
72% |
|
66 |
14% |
60% |
Median |
67 |
11% |
46% |
|
68 |
11% |
35% |
|
69 |
7% |
24% |
|
70 |
7% |
16% |
|
71 |
4% |
9% |
|
72 |
2% |
5% |
|
73 |
1.3% |
3% |
|
74 |
0.7% |
1.3% |
|
75 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
76 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
77 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
55 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
56 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
|
57 |
1.0% |
99.3% |
|
58 |
2% |
98% |
|
59 |
3% |
96% |
|
60 |
6% |
93% |
|
61 |
8% |
88% |
|
62 |
10% |
80% |
|
63 |
12% |
70% |
|
64 |
13% |
58% |
Median |
65 |
12% |
45% |
|
66 |
10% |
33% |
|
67 |
8% |
23% |
|
68 |
7% |
15% |
|
69 |
4% |
8% |
|
70 |
2% |
5% |
|
71 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
72 |
0.6% |
1.0% |
|
73 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
74 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
75 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
36 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
37 |
1.0% |
99.5% |
|
38 |
2% |
98% |
|
39 |
4% |
96% |
|
40 |
7% |
92% |
|
41 |
10% |
85% |
|
42 |
13% |
75% |
|
43 |
14% |
62% |
Median |
44 |
14% |
48% |
|
45 |
11% |
34% |
|
46 |
9% |
23% |
|
47 |
6% |
13% |
|
48 |
4% |
8% |
|
49 |
2% |
4% |
|
50 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
51 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
52 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
53 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Market
- Commissioner(s): Der Standard
- Fieldwork period: 16–18 September 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 806
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.19%