Opinion Poll by Research Affairs for ÖSTERREICH, 13–18 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 31.5% 34.0% 32.1–36.0% 31.6–36.5% 31.1–37.0% 30.2–38.0%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 26.9% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 26.0% 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 3.8% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.2% 9.6–14.9%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 5.3% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
JETZT–Liste Pilz 4.4% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 64 61–68 60–69 59–70 57–72
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 43 40–47 39–48 39–49 37–50
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 51 38 35–41 34–42 33–43 32–44
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 0 22 20–25 19–26 19–26 18–28
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 10 15 13–17 12–18 12–18 11–19
JETZT–Liste Pilz 8 0 0 0 0 0

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.5% 99.8%  
58 1.1% 99.3%  
59 2% 98%  
60 4% 96%  
61 7% 92%  
62 11% 85% Last Result
63 12% 74%  
64 13% 62% Median
65 14% 49%  
66 13% 35%  
67 9% 23%  
68 6% 14%  
69 4% 7%  
70 2% 4%  
71 0.9% 2%  
72 0.4% 0.6%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.5% 99.8%  
38 1.5% 99.2%  
39 3% 98%  
40 7% 94%  
41 10% 88%  
42 14% 78%  
43 16% 64% Median
44 15% 49%  
45 13% 34%  
46 9% 21%  
47 6% 11%  
48 3% 6%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.6% 1.0%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
53 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 0.9% 99.7%  
33 2% 98.7%  
34 5% 96%  
35 9% 91%  
36 13% 82%  
37 16% 69%  
38 16% 53% Median
39 14% 37%  
40 10% 23%  
41 7% 13%  
42 3% 6%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.7% 1.0%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Last Result

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.3% 100%  
18 1.4% 99.7%  
19 4% 98%  
20 8% 94%  
21 16% 86%  
22 22% 70% Median
23 18% 48%  
24 14% 30%  
25 9% 16%  
26 5% 7%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.6% 0.8%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100% Last Result
11 1.0% 99.8%  
12 5% 98.8%  
13 13% 93%  
14 21% 80%  
15 25% 59% Median
16 17% 34%  
17 11% 17%  
18 4% 6%  
19 1.4% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

JETZT–Liste Pilz

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 114 108 100% 104–112 103–113 102–114 100–115
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 102 100% 98–106 97–107 96–108 94–109
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 113 102 100% 98–106 97–107 96–108 94–110
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 87 6% 83–91 82–92 81–93 79–95
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 62 81 0% 77–85 76–86 75–87 73–89
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 103 81 0% 77–85 76–86 75–87 74–89
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 79 0% 76–83 74–84 74–85 72–87
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 52 66 0% 62–70 61–71 60–72 59–73
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 64 0% 61–68 60–69 59–70 57–72
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 43 0% 40–47 39–48 39–49 37–50

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0.1% 100%  
99 0.2% 99.9%  
100 0.4% 99.7%  
101 1.0% 99.3%  
102 2% 98%  
103 4% 97%  
104 6% 93%  
105 9% 87%  
106 11% 78%  
107 13% 68% Median
108 13% 55%  
109 12% 42%  
110 12% 29%  
111 7% 18%  
112 6% 11%  
113 3% 5%  
114 2% 3% Last Result
115 0.7% 1.1%  
116 0.3% 0.4%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 100% Majority
93 0.2% 99.9%  
94 0.4% 99.7%  
95 0.8% 99.3%  
96 2% 98%  
97 4% 97%  
98 6% 93%  
99 8% 86%  
100 11% 78%  
101 12% 67% Median
102 14% 55%  
103 12% 41%  
104 11% 29%  
105 8% 18%  
106 4% 10%  
107 3% 6%  
108 1.5% 3%  
109 0.7% 1.2%  
110 0.3% 0.4%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100% Majority
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.4% 99.8%  
95 0.8% 99.4%  
96 1.5% 98.7%  
97 4% 97%  
98 4% 94%  
99 7% 89%  
100 11% 82%  
101 12% 71%  
102 14% 58% Median
103 12% 44%  
104 11% 33%  
105 9% 21%  
106 5% 12%  
107 4% 7%  
108 2% 3%  
109 0.9% 2%  
110 0.5% 0.7%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.4% 99.8%  
80 0.9% 99.4%  
81 2% 98.5%  
82 4% 96%  
83 5% 92%  
84 9% 87%  
85 11% 79%  
86 11% 68% Median
87 15% 57%  
88 12% 42%  
89 10% 30%  
90 9% 20%  
91 5% 11%  
92 3% 6% Majority
93 2% 3%  
94 0.7% 1.3%  
95 0.3% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.5% 99.8%  
74 0.9% 99.3%  
75 2% 98%  
76 4% 97%  
77 5% 93%  
78 9% 88%  
79 11% 79%  
80 12% 67% Median
81 14% 56%  
82 12% 42%  
83 11% 29%  
84 7% 18%  
85 4% 11%  
86 4% 6%  
87 1.5% 3%  
88 0.8% 1.3%  
89 0.4% 0.6%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0% Majority

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 0.7% 99.6%  
75 1.5% 98.8%  
76 3% 97%  
77 4% 94%  
78 8% 90%  
79 11% 82%  
80 12% 71%  
81 14% 59% Median
82 12% 45%  
83 11% 33%  
84 8% 22%  
85 6% 14%  
86 4% 7%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.8% 2%  
89 0.4% 0.7%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.3% 99.9%  
72 0.6% 99.6% Last Result
73 1.4% 99.0%  
74 3% 98%  
75 4% 95%  
76 7% 91%  
77 11% 83%  
78 13% 72%  
79 12% 60% Median
80 13% 48%  
81 12% 34%  
82 9% 23%  
83 6% 14%  
84 4% 8%  
85 2% 4%  
86 1.0% 2%  
87 0.5% 0.8%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100% Last Result
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.8% 99.6%  
60 1.5% 98.8%  
61 3% 97%  
62 5% 94%  
63 8% 89%  
64 11% 81%  
65 13% 69% Median
66 14% 56%  
67 12% 43%  
68 11% 30%  
69 9% 19%  
70 4% 10%  
71 3% 6%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.8% 1.2%  
74 0.3% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.5% 99.8%  
58 1.1% 99.3%  
59 2% 98%  
60 4% 96%  
61 7% 92%  
62 11% 85% Last Result
63 12% 74%  
64 13% 62% Median
65 14% 49%  
66 13% 35%  
67 9% 23%  
68 6% 14%  
69 4% 7%  
70 2% 4%  
71 0.9% 2%  
72 0.4% 0.6%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.5% 99.8%  
38 1.5% 99.2%  
39 3% 98%  
40 7% 94%  
41 10% 88%  
42 14% 78%  
43 16% 64% Median
44 15% 49%  
45 13% 34%  
46 9% 21%  
47 6% 11%  
48 3% 6%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.6% 1.0%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
53 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations