Opinion Poll by Peter Hajek for ATV, PULS 4 and Servus TV, 12–20 September 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 34.0% | 32.9–35.1% | 32.6–35.4% | 32.3–35.7% | 31.8–36.2% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 22.0% | 21.1–23.0% | 20.8–23.3% | 20.6–23.5% | 20.1–24.0% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 20.0% | 19.1–21.0% | 18.8–21.2% | 18.6–21.5% | 18.2–21.9% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 13.0% | 12.3–13.8% | 12.0–14.1% | 11.8–14.3% | 11.5–14.7% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 8.0% | 7.4–8.7% | 7.2–8.9% | 7.1–9.0% | 6.8–9.4% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.4% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.5–2.6% | 1.4–2.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 64 | 62–67 | 62–67 | 61–68 | 60–69 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 42 | 40–43 | 39–44 | 39–44 | 38–45 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 38 | 36–40 | 35–40 | 35–40 | 34–41 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 24 | 23–26 | 22–26 | 22–27 | 21–27 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 15 | 14–16 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 13–17 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 62 | 9% | 97% | Last Result |
| 63 | 16% | 88% | |
| 64 | 25% | 72% | Median |
| 65 | 23% | 48% | |
| 66 | 14% | 25% | |
| 67 | 8% | 11% | |
| 68 | 2% | 3% | |
| 69 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 38 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 6% | 98.6% | |
| 40 | 16% | 93% | |
| 41 | 24% | 77% | |
| 42 | 25% | 53% | Median |
| 43 | 17% | 27% | |
| 44 | 7% | 10% | |
| 45 | 2% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 5% | 99.1% | |
| 36 | 14% | 95% | |
| 37 | 25% | 81% | |
| 38 | 28% | 56% | Median |
| 39 | 18% | 28% | |
| 40 | 8% | 10% | |
| 41 | 2% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 22 | 5% | 99.5% | |
| 23 | 17% | 95% | |
| 24 | 31% | 77% | Median |
| 25 | 29% | 46% | |
| 26 | 13% | 17% | |
| 27 | 3% | 4% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 13 | 6% | 99.6% | |
| 14 | 28% | 93% | |
| 15 | 41% | 65% | Median |
| 16 | 20% | 24% | |
| 17 | 4% | 4% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 106 | 100% | 104–108 | 103–109 | 103–109 | 102–110 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 104 | 100% | 101–106 | 101–106 | 100–107 | 99–108 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 102 | 100% | 100–104 | 99–105 | 99–105 | 98–107 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 89 | 6% | 87–91 | 86–92 | 85–92 | 84–93 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 62 | 81 | 0% | 79–83 | 78–84 | 78–84 | 76–85 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 79 | 0% | 77–82 | 77–82 | 76–83 | 75–84 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 79 | 0% | 77–82 | 76–82 | 76–83 | 75–84 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 52 | 66 | 0% | 64–68 | 63–69 | 63–69 | 62–70 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 64 | 0% | 62–67 | 62–67 | 61–68 | 60–69 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 42 | 0% | 40–43 | 39–44 | 39–44 | 38–45 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 1.5% | 99.6% | |
| 103 | 5% | 98% | |
| 104 | 13% | 93% | |
| 105 | 18% | 81% | |
| 106 | 25% | 63% | Median |
| 107 | 19% | 39% | |
| 108 | 11% | 19% | |
| 109 | 6% | 8% | |
| 110 | 2% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 101 | 7% | 97% | |
| 102 | 14% | 90% | |
| 103 | 23% | 76% | Median |
| 104 | 21% | 53% | |
| 105 | 18% | 32% | |
| 106 | 10% | 15% | |
| 107 | 4% | 5% | |
| 108 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 98 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 99 | 4% | 98.5% | |
| 100 | 11% | 94% | |
| 101 | 19% | 84% | |
| 102 | 23% | 64% | Median |
| 103 | 20% | 41% | |
| 104 | 13% | 21% | |
| 105 | 6% | 8% | |
| 106 | 2% | 2% | |
| 107 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 86 | 6% | 97% | |
| 87 | 12% | 91% | |
| 88 | 21% | 79% | Median |
| 89 | 23% | 57% | |
| 90 | 18% | 34% | |
| 91 | 11% | 16% | |
| 92 | 4% | 6% | Majority |
| 93 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 94 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 78 | 6% | 98% | |
| 79 | 13% | 92% | |
| 80 | 20% | 79% | |
| 81 | 23% | 59% | Median |
| 82 | 19% | 36% | |
| 83 | 11% | 16% | |
| 84 | 4% | 6% | |
| 85 | 1.1% | 1.5% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 75 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 76 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 77 | 10% | 95% | |
| 78 | 18% | 85% | |
| 79 | 21% | 68% | |
| 80 | 23% | 47% | Median |
| 81 | 14% | 24% | |
| 82 | 7% | 10% | |
| 83 | 3% | 3% | |
| 84 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 75 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 76 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 77 | 9% | 95% | |
| 78 | 18% | 85% | |
| 79 | 21% | 67% | Median |
| 80 | 22% | 46% | |
| 81 | 14% | 24% | |
| 82 | 7% | 10% | |
| 83 | 2% | 3% | |
| 84 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 62 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 63 | 6% | 98% | |
| 64 | 11% | 93% | |
| 65 | 21% | 81% | |
| 66 | 20% | 60% | Median |
| 67 | 21% | 40% | |
| 68 | 11% | 18% | |
| 69 | 5% | 7% | |
| 70 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 62 | 9% | 97% | Last Result |
| 63 | 16% | 88% | |
| 64 | 25% | 72% | Median |
| 65 | 23% | 48% | |
| 66 | 14% | 25% | |
| 67 | 8% | 11% | |
| 68 | 2% | 3% | |
| 69 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 38 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 6% | 98.6% | |
| 40 | 16% | 93% | |
| 41 | 24% | 77% | |
| 42 | 25% | 53% | Median |
| 43 | 17% | 27% | |
| 44 | 7% | 10% | |
| 45 | 2% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Peter Hajek
- Commissioner(s): ATV, PULS 4 and Servus TV
- Fieldwork period: 12–20 September 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 3021
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.56%