Opinion Poll by Research Affairs for ÖSTERREICH, 19–22 September 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 34.0% | 32.1–36.0% | 31.6–36.5% | 31.1–37.0% | 30.2–38.0% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 23.0% | 21.4–24.8% | 20.9–25.3% | 20.5–25.7% | 19.7–26.6% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 21.0% | 19.4–22.7% | 19.0–23.2% | 18.6–23.6% | 17.8–24.5% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 11.0% | 9.8–12.4% | 9.5–12.8% | 9.2–13.1% | 8.7–13.8% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 64 | 61–68 | 60–69 | 59–70 | 57–72 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 43 | 40–47 | 39–48 | 39–49 | 37–50 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 40 | 37–43 | 36–44 | 35–45 | 34–46 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 21 | 18–23 | 18–24 | 17–24 | 16–26 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 15 | 13–17 | 12–18 | 12–18 | 11–19 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 59 | 2% | 98% | |
| 60 | 4% | 96% | |
| 61 | 7% | 92% | |
| 62 | 9% | 84% | Last Result |
| 63 | 13% | 75% | |
| 64 | 14% | 62% | Median |
| 65 | 13% | 48% | |
| 66 | 13% | 35% | |
| 67 | 8% | 22% | |
| 68 | 6% | 14% | |
| 69 | 4% | 7% | |
| 70 | 2% | 4% | |
| 71 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 72 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 1.5% | 99.2% | |
| 39 | 3% | 98% | |
| 40 | 6% | 94% | |
| 41 | 10% | 89% | |
| 42 | 14% | 78% | |
| 43 | 16% | 64% | Median |
| 44 | 15% | 48% | |
| 45 | 13% | 33% | |
| 46 | 8% | 20% | |
| 47 | 6% | 12% | |
| 48 | 3% | 6% | |
| 49 | 2% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 35 | 3% | 98% | |
| 36 | 6% | 96% | |
| 37 | 9% | 90% | |
| 38 | 14% | 81% | |
| 39 | 15% | 67% | |
| 40 | 16% | 52% | Median |
| 41 | 13% | 35% | |
| 42 | 10% | 22% | |
| 43 | 6% | 12% | |
| 44 | 3% | 6% | |
| 45 | 2% | 3% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 18 | 8% | 96% | |
| 19 | 15% | 87% | |
| 20 | 21% | 72% | |
| 21 | 20% | 51% | Median |
| 22 | 15% | 31% | |
| 23 | 9% | 16% | |
| 24 | 5% | 7% | |
| 25 | 2% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 5% | 98.6% | |
| 13 | 13% | 94% | |
| 14 | 22% | 80% | |
| 15 | 23% | 58% | Median |
| 16 | 18% | 35% | |
| 17 | 11% | 17% | |
| 18 | 4% | 6% | |
| 19 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 108 | 100% | 104–111 | 103–113 | 102–114 | 100–115 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 104 | 100% | 100–108 | 99–109 | 98–110 | 96–111 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 100 | 99.8% | 96–104 | 95–105 | 94–106 | 92–108 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 85 | 1.4% | 81–89 | 80–90 | 79–91 | 77–93 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 83 | 0.2% | 79–87 | 78–88 | 77–89 | 75–91 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 79 | 0% | 75–83 | 75–84 | 74–85 | 72–87 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 62 | 79 | 0% | 75–83 | 74–84 | 73–85 | 71–87 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 52 | 64 | 0% | 60–68 | 59–69 | 59–70 | 57–71 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 64 | 0% | 61–68 | 60–69 | 59–70 | 57–72 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 43 | 0% | 40–47 | 39–48 | 39–49 | 37–50 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 98 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 101 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 102 | 2% | 98% | |
| 103 | 3% | 96% | |
| 104 | 5% | 93% | |
| 105 | 10% | 88% | |
| 106 | 11% | 78% | |
| 107 | 11% | 67% | Median |
| 108 | 16% | 56% | |
| 109 | 11% | 40% | |
| 110 | 10% | 29% | |
| 111 | 9% | 19% | |
| 112 | 4% | 10% | |
| 113 | 3% | 6% | |
| 114 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 115 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 97 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 98 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 99 | 3% | 97% | |
| 100 | 5% | 94% | |
| 101 | 8% | 89% | |
| 102 | 11% | 81% | |
| 103 | 11% | 69% | |
| 104 | 15% | 58% | Median |
| 105 | 13% | 44% | |
| 106 | 11% | 30% | |
| 107 | 8% | 20% | |
| 108 | 6% | 12% | |
| 109 | 3% | 6% | |
| 110 | 2% | 3% | |
| 111 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 114 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.4% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 93 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 94 | 2% | 98% | |
| 95 | 4% | 97% | |
| 96 | 5% | 93% | |
| 97 | 9% | 88% | |
| 98 | 10% | 79% | |
| 99 | 13% | 69% | |
| 100 | 14% | 56% | Median |
| 101 | 13% | 42% | |
| 102 | 10% | 29% | |
| 103 | 8% | 19% | |
| 104 | 5% | 11% | |
| 105 | 3% | 6% | |
| 106 | 2% | 3% | |
| 107 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 108 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 78 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 79 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 80 | 3% | 97% | |
| 81 | 6% | 94% | |
| 82 | 8% | 87% | |
| 83 | 9% | 79% | |
| 84 | 12% | 70% | |
| 85 | 13% | 58% | Median |
| 86 | 16% | 45% | |
| 87 | 8% | 29% | |
| 88 | 8% | 20% | |
| 89 | 5% | 12% | |
| 90 | 3% | 7% | |
| 91 | 2% | 3% | |
| 92 | 0.8% | 1.4% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 76 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 77 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 78 | 3% | 97% | |
| 79 | 5% | 94% | |
| 80 | 8% | 89% | |
| 81 | 10% | 81% | |
| 82 | 13% | 71% | |
| 83 | 14% | 58% | Median |
| 84 | 13% | 44% | |
| 85 | 10% | 31% | |
| 86 | 9% | 21% | |
| 87 | 5% | 12% | |
| 88 | 4% | 7% | |
| 89 | 2% | 3% | |
| 90 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.7% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 73 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 74 | 3% | 98% | |
| 75 | 6% | 95% | |
| 76 | 7% | 89% | |
| 77 | 10% | 83% | |
| 78 | 12% | 73% | |
| 79 | 13% | 61% | Median |
| 80 | 12% | 47% | |
| 81 | 14% | 35% | |
| 82 | 8% | 21% | |
| 83 | 5% | 13% | |
| 84 | 4% | 9% | |
| 85 | 3% | 4% | |
| 86 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 72 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 73 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 74 | 3% | 97% | |
| 75 | 6% | 94% | |
| 76 | 8% | 88% | |
| 77 | 11% | 80% | |
| 78 | 13% | 70% | |
| 79 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 80 | 11% | 42% | |
| 81 | 11% | 30% | |
| 82 | 8% | 19% | |
| 83 | 5% | 11% | |
| 84 | 3% | 6% | |
| 85 | 2% | 3% | |
| 86 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 58 | 1.4% | 99.1% | |
| 59 | 3% | 98% | |
| 60 | 5% | 95% | |
| 61 | 8% | 90% | |
| 62 | 11% | 81% | |
| 63 | 14% | 71% | |
| 64 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 65 | 13% | 44% | |
| 66 | 11% | 31% | |
| 67 | 8% | 19% | |
| 68 | 6% | 11% | |
| 69 | 3% | 6% | |
| 70 | 2% | 3% | |
| 71 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 59 | 2% | 98% | |
| 60 | 4% | 96% | |
| 61 | 7% | 92% | |
| 62 | 9% | 84% | Last Result |
| 63 | 13% | 75% | |
| 64 | 14% | 62% | Median |
| 65 | 13% | 48% | |
| 66 | 13% | 35% | |
| 67 | 8% | 22% | |
| 68 | 6% | 14% | |
| 69 | 4% | 7% | |
| 70 | 2% | 4% | |
| 71 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 72 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 1.5% | 99.2% | |
| 39 | 3% | 98% | |
| 40 | 6% | 94% | |
| 41 | 10% | 89% | |
| 42 | 14% | 78% | |
| 43 | 16% | 64% | Median |
| 44 | 15% | 48% | |
| 45 | 13% | 33% | |
| 46 | 8% | 20% | |
| 47 | 6% | 12% | |
| 48 | 3% | 6% | |
| 49 | 2% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Research Affairs
- Commissioner(s): ÖSTERREICH
- Fieldwork period: 19–22 September 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.59%