Opinion Poll by OGM for Servus TV, 16–23 September 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 34.0% | 32.1–36.0% | 31.6–36.5% | 31.1–37.0% | 30.2–37.9% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 22.0% | 20.4–23.7% | 19.9–24.2% | 19.5–24.6% | 18.8–25.5% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 20.0% | 18.4–21.7% | 18.0–22.1% | 17.6–22.6% | 16.9–23.4% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 12.0% | 10.8–13.4% | 10.5–13.8% | 10.2–14.2% | 9.6–14.9% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.4–9.8% | 6.0–10.4% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 65 | 61–69 | 60–70 | 60–71 | 58–73 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 42 | 39–45 | 38–46 | 37–47 | 36–49 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 38 | 35–41 | 34–42 | 34–43 | 32–45 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 23 | 20–25 | 20–26 | 19–27 | 18–28 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 15 | 13–17 | 12–18 | 12–18 | 11–19 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 59 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 60 | 3% | 98% | |
| 61 | 5% | 95% | |
| 62 | 7% | 89% | Last Result |
| 63 | 11% | 82% | |
| 64 | 13% | 71% | |
| 65 | 14% | 58% | Median |
| 66 | 12% | 44% | |
| 67 | 12% | 31% | |
| 68 | 8% | 20% | |
| 69 | 6% | 12% | |
| 70 | 3% | 6% | |
| 71 | 2% | 3% | |
| 72 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 37 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 38 | 5% | 97% | |
| 39 | 8% | 92% | |
| 40 | 12% | 84% | |
| 41 | 16% | 71% | |
| 42 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 43 | 15% | 41% | |
| 44 | 11% | 26% | |
| 45 | 7% | 15% | |
| 46 | 4% | 8% | |
| 47 | 2% | 4% | |
| 48 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 34 | 4% | 98% | |
| 35 | 7% | 94% | |
| 36 | 11% | 86% | |
| 37 | 16% | 75% | |
| 38 | 16% | 59% | Median |
| 39 | 15% | 43% | |
| 40 | 12% | 28% | |
| 41 | 8% | 16% | |
| 42 | 5% | 8% | |
| 43 | 2% | 4% | |
| 44 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 19 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 20 | 8% | 96% | |
| 21 | 14% | 88% | |
| 22 | 19% | 75% | |
| 23 | 19% | 55% | Median |
| 24 | 17% | 36% | |
| 25 | 10% | 19% | |
| 26 | 6% | 9% | |
| 27 | 2% | 4% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 13 | 12% | 95% | |
| 14 | 19% | 82% | |
| 15 | 27% | 63% | Median |
| 16 | 19% | 36% | |
| 17 | 11% | 17% | |
| 18 | 5% | 7% | |
| 19 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 107 | 100% | 103–111 | 102–112 | 101–113 | 99–115 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 103 | 100% | 99–107 | 98–108 | 97–109 | 95–110 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 103 | 100% | 100–107 | 98–108 | 97–109 | 96–111 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 88 | 12% | 84–92 | 83–93 | 82–94 | 80–96 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 62 | 80 | 0% | 76–83 | 75–85 | 74–86 | 72–87 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 80 | 0% | 76–84 | 75–85 | 74–86 | 73–88 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 80 | 0% | 76–84 | 75–85 | 74–86 | 72–88 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 65 | 0% | 61–69 | 60–70 | 60–71 | 58–73 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 52 | 65 | 0% | 61–68 | 60–69 | 59–70 | 58–72 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 42 | 0% | 39–45 | 38–46 | 37–47 | 36–49 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 100 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 101 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 102 | 3% | 97% | |
| 103 | 5% | 94% | |
| 104 | 8% | 88% | |
| 105 | 10% | 80% | |
| 106 | 12% | 70% | |
| 107 | 14% | 58% | Median |
| 108 | 12% | 43% | |
| 109 | 11% | 31% | |
| 110 | 8% | 20% | |
| 111 | 5% | 12% | |
| 112 | 3% | 7% | |
| 113 | 2% | 3% | |
| 114 | 0.8% | 1.4% | Last Result |
| 115 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 97 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 98 | 3% | 96% | |
| 99 | 5% | 93% | |
| 100 | 8% | 88% | |
| 101 | 11% | 80% | |
| 102 | 13% | 69% | |
| 103 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 104 | 13% | 43% | |
| 105 | 11% | 30% | |
| 106 | 8% | 19% | |
| 107 | 5% | 11% | |
| 108 | 3% | 6% | |
| 109 | 2% | 3% | |
| 110 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 97 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 98 | 3% | 97% | |
| 99 | 4% | 94% | |
| 100 | 8% | 90% | |
| 101 | 10% | 82% | |
| 102 | 12% | 72% | |
| 103 | 13% | 60% | Median |
| 104 | 12% | 47% | |
| 105 | 13% | 35% | |
| 106 | 9% | 22% | |
| 107 | 6% | 13% | |
| 108 | 3% | 7% | |
| 109 | 2% | 4% | |
| 110 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 114 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 81 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 82 | 2% | 98% | |
| 83 | 4% | 97% | |
| 84 | 6% | 93% | |
| 85 | 8% | 87% | |
| 86 | 11% | 79% | |
| 87 | 13% | 69% | |
| 88 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 89 | 13% | 42% | |
| 90 | 10% | 30% | |
| 91 | 7% | 19% | |
| 92 | 6% | 12% | Majority |
| 93 | 4% | 7% | |
| 94 | 2% | 3% | |
| 95 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 96 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 73 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 74 | 2% | 98% | |
| 75 | 3% | 96% | |
| 76 | 6% | 93% | |
| 77 | 9% | 87% | |
| 78 | 13% | 78% | |
| 79 | 12% | 65% | |
| 80 | 13% | 53% | Median |
| 81 | 12% | 40% | |
| 82 | 10% | 28% | |
| 83 | 8% | 18% | |
| 84 | 4% | 10% | |
| 85 | 3% | 6% | |
| 86 | 2% | 3% | |
| 87 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 73 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 74 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 75 | 3% | 97% | |
| 76 | 5% | 94% | |
| 77 | 8% | 89% | |
| 78 | 11% | 81% | |
| 79 | 13% | 70% | |
| 80 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 81 | 13% | 44% | |
| 82 | 11% | 31% | |
| 83 | 8% | 20% | |
| 84 | 5% | 12% | |
| 85 | 3% | 7% | |
| 86 | 2% | 3% | |
| 87 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 88 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 74 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 75 | 3% | 97% | |
| 76 | 5% | 94% | |
| 77 | 7% | 89% | |
| 78 | 9% | 81% | |
| 79 | 14% | 72% | |
| 80 | 13% | 59% | Median |
| 81 | 14% | 45% | |
| 82 | 10% | 31% | |
| 83 | 9% | 21% | |
| 84 | 5% | 12% | |
| 85 | 3% | 6% | |
| 86 | 2% | 3% | |
| 87 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 88 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 59 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 60 | 3% | 98% | |
| 61 | 5% | 95% | |
| 62 | 7% | 89% | Last Result |
| 63 | 11% | 82% | |
| 64 | 13% | 71% | |
| 65 | 14% | 58% | Median |
| 66 | 12% | 44% | |
| 67 | 12% | 31% | |
| 68 | 8% | 20% | |
| 69 | 6% | 12% | |
| 70 | 3% | 6% | |
| 71 | 2% | 3% | |
| 72 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 59 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 60 | 3% | 97% | |
| 61 | 6% | 94% | |
| 62 | 10% | 88% | |
| 63 | 11% | 78% | |
| 64 | 13% | 67% | |
| 65 | 15% | 54% | Median |
| 66 | 12% | 38% | |
| 67 | 10% | 27% | |
| 68 | 7% | 17% | |
| 69 | 5% | 9% | |
| 70 | 3% | 5% | |
| 71 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 72 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 37 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 38 | 5% | 97% | |
| 39 | 8% | 92% | |
| 40 | 12% | 84% | |
| 41 | 16% | 71% | |
| 42 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 43 | 15% | 41% | |
| 44 | 11% | 26% | |
| 45 | 7% | 15% | |
| 46 | 4% | 8% | |
| 47 | 2% | 4% | |
| 48 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: OGM
- Commissioner(s): Servus TV
- Fieldwork period: 16–23 September 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1006
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.14%