Opinion Poll by BMG Research, 9–12 January 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Labour Party |
40.0% |
41.0% |
39.4–42.6% |
38.9–43.1% |
38.5–43.5% |
37.8–44.3% |
Conservative Party |
42.4% |
40.0% |
38.4–41.6% |
37.9–42.1% |
37.5–42.5% |
36.8–43.3% |
Liberal Democrats |
7.4% |
8.0% |
7.2–9.0% |
6.9–9.2% |
6.7–9.5% |
6.4–10.0% |
UK Independence Party |
1.8% |
4.0% |
3.4–4.8% |
3.3–5.0% |
3.1–5.2% |
2.9–5.5% |
Scottish National Party |
3.0% |
3.0% |
2.5–3.6% |
2.3–3.8% |
2.2–4.0% |
2.0–4.3% |
Green Party |
1.6% |
2.0% |
1.6–2.5% |
1.5–2.7% |
1.4–2.8% |
1.2–3.1% |
Plaid Cymru |
0.5% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.4% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.6% |
0.5–1.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
232 |
0% |
100% |
|
233 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
234 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
235 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
236 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
237 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
238 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
239 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
240 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
241 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
242 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
243 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
244 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
245 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
|
246 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
247 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
248 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
249 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
250 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
251 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
252 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
253 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
254 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
255 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
256 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
257 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
258 |
1.1% |
94% |
|
259 |
0.7% |
93% |
|
260 |
0.8% |
93% |
|
261 |
0.8% |
92% |
|
262 |
1.2% |
91% |
Last Result |
263 |
0.8% |
90% |
|
264 |
0.8% |
89% |
|
265 |
0.8% |
88% |
|
266 |
0.6% |
87% |
|
267 |
1.3% |
87% |
|
268 |
0.9% |
85% |
|
269 |
0.5% |
85% |
|
270 |
0.3% |
84% |
|
271 |
1.3% |
84% |
|
272 |
2% |
83% |
|
273 |
1.2% |
81% |
|
274 |
1.2% |
79% |
|
275 |
1.1% |
78% |
|
276 |
1.0% |
77% |
|
277 |
1.3% |
76% |
|
278 |
3% |
75% |
|
279 |
2% |
72% |
|
280 |
0.7% |
70% |
|
281 |
1.1% |
69% |
|
282 |
0.9% |
68% |
|
283 |
2% |
67% |
|
284 |
3% |
65% |
|
285 |
2% |
62% |
|
286 |
1.5% |
60% |
|
287 |
2% |
58% |
|
288 |
1.1% |
57% |
|
289 |
1.4% |
56% |
|
290 |
2% |
54% |
|
291 |
1.5% |
52% |
|
292 |
3% |
51% |
Median |
293 |
2% |
47% |
|
294 |
2% |
46% |
|
295 |
2% |
44% |
|
296 |
2% |
42% |
|
297 |
3% |
40% |
|
298 |
2% |
37% |
|
299 |
1.0% |
35% |
|
300 |
3% |
34% |
|
301 |
3% |
31% |
|
302 |
2% |
29% |
|
303 |
1.4% |
27% |
|
304 |
1.2% |
26% |
|
305 |
2% |
24% |
|
306 |
1.2% |
22% |
|
307 |
2% |
21% |
|
308 |
0.7% |
19% |
|
309 |
2% |
18% |
|
310 |
1.1% |
16% |
|
311 |
1.3% |
15% |
|
312 |
1.0% |
14% |
|
313 |
1.1% |
13% |
|
314 |
0.8% |
12% |
|
315 |
0.4% |
11% |
|
316 |
2% |
11% |
|
317 |
0.8% |
9% |
|
318 |
0.7% |
8% |
|
319 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
320 |
2% |
7% |
|
321 |
0.7% |
6% |
|
322 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
323 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
324 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
325 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
326 |
0.3% |
3% |
Majority |
327 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
328 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
329 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
330 |
0.2% |
1.5% |
|
331 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
332 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
333 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
334 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
335 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
336 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
337 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
338 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
340 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
341 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
342 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
343 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
344 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
242 |
0% |
100% |
|
243 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
244 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
245 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
246 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
247 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
248 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
249 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
250 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
251 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
252 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
253 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
254 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
|
255 |
0.3% |
98.9% |
|
256 |
0.5% |
98.5% |
|
257 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
258 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
259 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
260 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
261 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
262 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
263 |
0.7% |
95% |
|
264 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
265 |
1.1% |
94% |
|
266 |
0.9% |
93% |
|
267 |
1.1% |
92% |
|
268 |
1.3% |
90% |
|
269 |
2% |
89% |
|
270 |
1.3% |
87% |
|
271 |
2% |
85% |
|
272 |
2% |
83% |
|
273 |
1.4% |
81% |
|
274 |
3% |
80% |
|
275 |
1.1% |
77% |
|
276 |
1.2% |
75% |
|
277 |
2% |
74% |
|
278 |
4% |
72% |
|
279 |
3% |
68% |
|
280 |
4% |
66% |
|
281 |
3% |
62% |
|
282 |
0.9% |
59% |
|
283 |
2% |
58% |
|
284 |
0.9% |
57% |
|
285 |
3% |
56% |
|
286 |
2% |
53% |
|
287 |
2% |
51% |
Median |
288 |
2% |
49% |
|
289 |
4% |
47% |
|
290 |
0.9% |
43% |
|
291 |
2% |
42% |
|
292 |
3% |
41% |
|
293 |
2% |
37% |
|
294 |
0.7% |
35% |
|
295 |
0.7% |
35% |
|
296 |
2% |
34% |
|
297 |
2% |
32% |
|
298 |
2% |
30% |
|
299 |
3% |
28% |
|
300 |
0.6% |
25% |
|
301 |
2% |
24% |
|
302 |
2% |
23% |
|
303 |
0.6% |
21% |
|
304 |
1.4% |
20% |
|
305 |
1.4% |
19% |
|
306 |
1.1% |
18% |
|
307 |
0.3% |
17% |
|
308 |
2% |
16% |
|
309 |
1.0% |
15% |
|
310 |
1.2% |
14% |
|
311 |
1.1% |
13% |
|
312 |
0.5% |
12% |
|
313 |
1.3% |
11% |
|
314 |
1.3% |
10% |
|
315 |
0.6% |
8% |
|
316 |
0.5% |
8% |
|
317 |
0.6% |
7% |
Last Result |
318 |
0.7% |
7% |
|
319 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
320 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
321 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
322 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
323 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
324 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
325 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
326 |
0.5% |
3% |
Majority |
327 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
328 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
329 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
330 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
331 |
0.2% |
1.5% |
|
332 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
333 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
334 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
335 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
336 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
337 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
338 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
339 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
340 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
341 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
342 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
343 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
344 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
|
7 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
8 |
0.9% |
99.1% |
|
9 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
10 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
11 |
1.4% |
97% |
|
12 |
3% |
95% |
Last Result |
13 |
3% |
92% |
|
14 |
9% |
89% |
|
15 |
18% |
80% |
|
16 |
22% |
62% |
Median |
17 |
11% |
40% |
|
18 |
5% |
29% |
|
19 |
8% |
24% |
|
20 |
8% |
16% |
|
21 |
1.3% |
8% |
|
22 |
2% |
7% |
|
23 |
1.4% |
5% |
|
24 |
1.3% |
3% |
|
25 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
26 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
27 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
UK Independence Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
21% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
79% |
79% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
2 |
1.2% |
99.8% |
|
3 |
0.7% |
98.5% |
|
4 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
5 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
6 |
1.2% |
97% |
|
7 |
2% |
96% |
|
8 |
2% |
94% |
|
9 |
5% |
92% |
|
10 |
0.7% |
88% |
|
11 |
0.2% |
87% |
|
12 |
0.6% |
87% |
|
13 |
2% |
86% |
|
14 |
1.0% |
84% |
|
15 |
0.4% |
83% |
|
16 |
0.6% |
82% |
|
17 |
1.5% |
82% |
|
18 |
0.5% |
80% |
|
19 |
1.4% |
80% |
|
20 |
1.2% |
78% |
|
21 |
0.8% |
77% |
|
22 |
1.2% |
76% |
|
23 |
2% |
75% |
|
24 |
4% |
73% |
|
25 |
1.1% |
70% |
|
26 |
9% |
68% |
|
27 |
3% |
60% |
|
28 |
7% |
57% |
|
29 |
4% |
50% |
Median |
30 |
2% |
46% |
|
31 |
0.3% |
44% |
|
32 |
2% |
44% |
|
33 |
1.1% |
42% |
|
34 |
0.6% |
41% |
|
35 |
2% |
40% |
Last Result |
36 |
1.5% |
39% |
|
37 |
1.2% |
37% |
|
38 |
3% |
36% |
|
39 |
4% |
33% |
|
40 |
4% |
29% |
|
41 |
2% |
25% |
|
42 |
2% |
23% |
|
43 |
1.2% |
21% |
|
44 |
3% |
20% |
|
45 |
2% |
17% |
|
46 |
2% |
15% |
|
47 |
2% |
13% |
|
48 |
3% |
11% |
|
49 |
1.0% |
8% |
|
50 |
1.3% |
7% |
|
51 |
2% |
6% |
|
52 |
0.9% |
3% |
|
53 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
54 |
0.8% |
1.2% |
|
55 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
56 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
Green Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Plaid Cymru
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
3 |
0.9% |
99.5% |
|
4 |
13% |
98.6% |
Last Result |
5 |
78% |
86% |
Median |
6 |
3% |
8% |
|
7 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
8 |
4% |
5% |
|
9 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
10 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
313 |
343 |
81% |
317–362 |
310–367 |
302–372 |
293–380 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party |
309 |
338 |
75% |
312–357 |
304–362 |
297–367 |
288–375 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
356 |
322 |
44% |
297–352 |
292–359 |
287–365 |
277–377 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party |
352 |
317 |
35% |
292–347 |
287–354 |
283–360 |
272–372 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
301 |
327 |
53% |
302–346 |
294–350 |
287–354 |
278–362 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party |
297 |
322 |
44% |
297–341 |
289–345 |
282–350 |
273–357 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru |
278 |
313 |
25% |
283–338 |
276–344 |
270–348 |
259–358 |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats |
329 |
303 |
13% |
285–328 |
280–336 |
276–343 |
268–352 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats |
274 |
308 |
18% |
278–333 |
271–339 |
265–343 |
254–354 |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru |
321 |
292 |
5% |
273–318 |
268–326 |
263–333 |
255–342 |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru |
266 |
297 |
5% |
267–321 |
261–326 |
254–331 |
244–340 |
Conservative Party |
317 |
287 |
3% |
268–313 |
263–320 |
258–328 |
250–337 |
Labour Party |
262 |
292 |
3% |
262–316 |
256–321 |
249–326 |
239–335 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
288 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
289 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
290 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
291 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
292 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
293 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
294 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
295 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
296 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
297 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
298 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
299 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
300 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
|
301 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
302 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
303 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
304 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
305 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
306 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
307 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
308 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
309 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
310 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
311 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
312 |
0.7% |
94% |
|
313 |
0.7% |
93% |
Last Result |
314 |
0.3% |
93% |
|
315 |
0.6% |
92% |
|
316 |
1.4% |
92% |
|
317 |
1.3% |
90% |
|
318 |
0.5% |
89% |
|
319 |
0.9% |
88% |
|
320 |
1.2% |
88% |
|
321 |
1.0% |
86% |
|
322 |
2% |
85% |
|
323 |
0.3% |
84% |
|
324 |
1.0% |
83% |
|
325 |
1.3% |
82% |
|
326 |
1.0% |
81% |
Majority |
327 |
1.1% |
80% |
|
328 |
2% |
79% |
|
329 |
2% |
77% |
|
330 |
0.8% |
76% |
|
331 |
2% |
75% |
|
332 |
2% |
73% |
|
333 |
2% |
71% |
|
334 |
2% |
68% |
|
335 |
0.7% |
66% |
|
336 |
0.9% |
66% |
|
337 |
2% |
65% |
|
338 |
3% |
63% |
|
339 |
2% |
60% |
|
340 |
1.0% |
58% |
|
341 |
4% |
57% |
|
342 |
0.8% |
53% |
Median |
343 |
3% |
52% |
|
344 |
1.4% |
49% |
|
345 |
3% |
48% |
|
346 |
1.1% |
45% |
|
347 |
1.4% |
44% |
|
348 |
1.4% |
42% |
|
349 |
2% |
41% |
|
350 |
4% |
39% |
|
351 |
3% |
35% |
|
352 |
4% |
32% |
|
353 |
2% |
28% |
|
354 |
0.9% |
26% |
|
355 |
1.5% |
25% |
|
356 |
2% |
24% |
|
357 |
3% |
22% |
|
358 |
2% |
19% |
|
359 |
2% |
17% |
|
360 |
2% |
15% |
|
361 |
1.4% |
13% |
|
362 |
2% |
12% |
|
363 |
0.9% |
10% |
|
364 |
0.8% |
9% |
|
365 |
1.2% |
8% |
|
366 |
0.9% |
7% |
|
367 |
1.0% |
6% |
|
368 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
369 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
370 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
371 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
372 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
373 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
374 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
375 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
376 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
377 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
378 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
379 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
380 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
381 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
382 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
383 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
384 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
385 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
386 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
387 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
388 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
389 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
390 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
283 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
284 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
285 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
286 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
287 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
288 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
289 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
290 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
291 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
292 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
293 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
294 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
|
295 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
296 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
297 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
298 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
299 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
300 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
301 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
302 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
303 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
304 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
305 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
306 |
0.5% |
94% |
|
307 |
0.5% |
94% |
|
308 |
0.7% |
93% |
|
309 |
0.3% |
93% |
Last Result |
310 |
0.7% |
92% |
|
311 |
1.3% |
92% |
|
312 |
1.3% |
90% |
|
313 |
0.8% |
89% |
|
314 |
0.6% |
88% |
|
315 |
2% |
88% |
|
316 |
1.0% |
86% |
|
317 |
1.4% |
85% |
|
318 |
0.5% |
84% |
|
319 |
1.0% |
83% |
|
320 |
1.2% |
82% |
|
321 |
1.1% |
81% |
|
322 |
1.2% |
80% |
|
323 |
2% |
79% |
|
324 |
0.9% |
77% |
|
325 |
2% |
76% |
|
326 |
2% |
75% |
Majority |
327 |
2% |
73% |
|
328 |
2% |
71% |
|
329 |
2% |
68% |
|
330 |
0.8% |
66% |
|
331 |
1.0% |
65% |
|
332 |
2% |
64% |
|
333 |
3% |
63% |
|
334 |
2% |
60% |
|
335 |
1.0% |
58% |
|
336 |
4% |
57% |
|
337 |
1.0% |
53% |
Median |
338 |
2% |
52% |
|
339 |
2% |
49% |
|
340 |
2% |
47% |
|
341 |
1.2% |
45% |
|
342 |
1.3% |
44% |
|
343 |
2% |
42% |
|
344 |
2% |
41% |
|
345 |
4% |
39% |
|
346 |
4% |
35% |
|
347 |
4% |
32% |
|
348 |
2% |
28% |
|
349 |
1.4% |
26% |
|
350 |
1.5% |
25% |
|
351 |
2% |
23% |
|
352 |
3% |
22% |
|
353 |
2% |
19% |
|
354 |
2% |
17% |
|
355 |
0.9% |
15% |
|
356 |
2% |
14% |
|
357 |
2% |
12% |
|
358 |
0.9% |
10% |
|
359 |
0.9% |
9% |
|
360 |
1.0% |
8% |
|
361 |
0.9% |
7% |
|
362 |
1.1% |
6% |
|
363 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
364 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
365 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
366 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
367 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
368 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
369 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
370 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
371 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
372 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
373 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
374 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
375 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
376 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
377 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
378 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
379 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
380 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
381 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
382 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
383 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
384 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
385 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
269 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
270 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
271 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
272 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
273 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
274 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
275 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
276 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
277 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
278 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
279 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
|
280 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
281 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
282 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
|
283 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
284 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
285 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
286 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
287 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
288 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
289 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
290 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
291 |
1.1% |
96% |
|
292 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
293 |
0.5% |
94% |
|
294 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
295 |
2% |
93% |
|
296 |
0.9% |
91% |
|
297 |
0.7% |
90% |
|
298 |
0.7% |
90% |
|
299 |
0.7% |
89% |
|
300 |
2% |
88% |
|
301 |
1.2% |
87% |
|
302 |
0.6% |
86% |
|
303 |
2% |
85% |
|
304 |
1.0% |
83% |
|
305 |
2% |
82% |
|
306 |
1.1% |
81% |
|
307 |
0.9% |
79% |
|
308 |
1.2% |
79% |
|
309 |
2% |
77% |
|
310 |
1.1% |
75% |
|
311 |
3% |
74% |
|
312 |
1.4% |
71% |
|
313 |
4% |
70% |
|
314 |
1.4% |
66% |
|
315 |
1.3% |
64% |
|
316 |
1.2% |
63% |
|
317 |
1.1% |
62% |
|
318 |
4% |
61% |
|
319 |
2% |
57% |
|
320 |
1.4% |
55% |
|
321 |
2% |
54% |
Median |
322 |
3% |
52% |
|
323 |
1.0% |
49% |
|
324 |
1.2% |
48% |
|
325 |
2% |
47% |
|
326 |
1.1% |
44% |
Majority |
327 |
2% |
43% |
|
328 |
1.2% |
41% |
|
329 |
2% |
40% |
|
330 |
3% |
38% |
|
331 |
1.2% |
36% |
|
332 |
2% |
35% |
|
333 |
1.5% |
32% |
|
334 |
1.0% |
31% |
|
335 |
3% |
30% |
|
336 |
2% |
27% |
|
337 |
2% |
25% |
|
338 |
2% |
24% |
|
339 |
0.9% |
22% |
|
340 |
0.4% |
21% |
|
341 |
2% |
21% |
|
342 |
0.7% |
19% |
|
343 |
0.7% |
18% |
|
344 |
0.8% |
17% |
|
345 |
1.1% |
17% |
|
346 |
1.2% |
16% |
|
347 |
0.5% |
14% |
|
348 |
0.4% |
14% |
|
349 |
1.2% |
13% |
|
350 |
1.2% |
12% |
|
351 |
0.6% |
11% |
|
352 |
0.5% |
10% |
|
353 |
0.9% |
10% |
|
354 |
0.4% |
9% |
|
355 |
1.1% |
9% |
|
356 |
0.4% |
7% |
Last Result |
357 |
0.7% |
7% |
|
358 |
1.2% |
6% |
|
359 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
360 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
361 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
362 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
363 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
364 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
365 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
366 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
367 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
368 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
369 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
370 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
371 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
372 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
373 |
0% |
1.2% |
|
374 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
375 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
|
376 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
377 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
378 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
379 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
380 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
381 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
382 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
383 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
384 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
385 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
386 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
264 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
265 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
266 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
267 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
268 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
269 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
270 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
271 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
272 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
273 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
|
274 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
|
275 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
276 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
277 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
278 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
279 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
280 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
281 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
282 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
283 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
284 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
285 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
286 |
1.1% |
96% |
|
287 |
0.7% |
95% |
|
288 |
0.8% |
94% |
|
289 |
0.4% |
94% |
|
290 |
2% |
93% |
|
291 |
0.7% |
92% |
|
292 |
1.0% |
91% |
|
293 |
0.7% |
90% |
|
294 |
0.6% |
89% |
|
295 |
2% |
88% |
|
296 |
1.2% |
87% |
|
297 |
1.0% |
86% |
|
298 |
1.2% |
85% |
|
299 |
1.1% |
83% |
|
300 |
2% |
82% |
|
301 |
1.0% |
80% |
|
302 |
0.8% |
79% |
|
303 |
0.9% |
78% |
|
304 |
2% |
77% |
|
305 |
0.9% |
75% |
|
306 |
3% |
74% |
|
307 |
2% |
71% |
|
308 |
4% |
70% |
|
309 |
1.4% |
66% |
|
310 |
1.2% |
64% |
|
311 |
1.1% |
63% |
|
312 |
1.2% |
62% |
|
313 |
3% |
61% |
|
314 |
3% |
58% |
|
315 |
2% |
55% |
|
316 |
2% |
54% |
Median |
317 |
3% |
52% |
|
318 |
0.9% |
49% |
|
319 |
1.3% |
48% |
|
320 |
2% |
46% |
|
321 |
1.2% |
44% |
|
322 |
2% |
43% |
|
323 |
1.1% |
41% |
|
324 |
1.5% |
40% |
|
325 |
3% |
38% |
|
326 |
1.0% |
35% |
Majority |
327 |
2% |
34% |
|
328 |
2% |
32% |
|
329 |
0.7% |
31% |
|
330 |
3% |
30% |
|
331 |
2% |
27% |
|
332 |
2% |
25% |
|
333 |
2% |
24% |
|
334 |
0.7% |
22% |
|
335 |
0.8% |
21% |
|
336 |
2% |
20% |
|
337 |
0.9% |
19% |
|
338 |
0.8% |
18% |
|
339 |
0.8% |
17% |
|
340 |
0.9% |
16% |
|
341 |
1.4% |
15% |
|
342 |
0.4% |
14% |
|
343 |
0.4% |
14% |
|
344 |
1.3% |
13% |
|
345 |
1.3% |
12% |
|
346 |
0.4% |
11% |
|
347 |
0.6% |
10% |
|
348 |
1.1% |
10% |
|
349 |
0.3% |
9% |
|
350 |
1.0% |
8% |
|
351 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
352 |
0.6% |
7% |
Last Result |
353 |
1.3% |
6% |
|
354 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
355 |
0.9% |
5% |
|
356 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
357 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
358 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
359 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
360 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
361 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
362 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
363 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
364 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
365 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
366 |
0.2% |
1.5% |
|
367 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
368 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
369 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
370 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
|
371 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
372 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
373 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
374 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
375 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
376 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
377 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
378 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
379 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
380 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
381 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
274 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
275 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
276 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
277 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
278 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
279 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
280 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
281 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
282 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
283 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
284 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
285 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
286 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
287 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
288 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
289 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
290 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
291 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
292 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
293 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
294 |
0.7% |
95% |
|
295 |
0.5% |
94% |
|
296 |
0.5% |
94% |
|
297 |
0.5% |
93% |
|
298 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
299 |
1.1% |
93% |
|
300 |
0.8% |
91% |
|
301 |
0.6% |
91% |
Last Result |
302 |
1.0% |
90% |
|
303 |
2% |
89% |
|
304 |
0.5% |
87% |
|
305 |
0.9% |
87% |
|
306 |
1.2% |
86% |
|
307 |
1.0% |
85% |
|
308 |
2% |
84% |
|
309 |
0.9% |
82% |
|
310 |
1.0% |
81% |
|
311 |
1.3% |
80% |
|
312 |
1.5% |
78% |
|
313 |
1.0% |
77% |
|
314 |
0.6% |
76% |
|
315 |
3% |
75% |
|
316 |
2% |
72% |
|
317 |
1.4% |
70% |
|
318 |
3% |
69% |
|
319 |
3% |
66% |
|
320 |
0.6% |
64% |
|
321 |
2% |
63% |
|
322 |
0.8% |
61% |
|
323 |
3% |
60% |
|
324 |
1.3% |
58% |
|
325 |
4% |
56% |
|
326 |
2% |
53% |
Median, Majority |
327 |
2% |
51% |
|
328 |
2% |
49% |
|
329 |
1.2% |
47% |
|
330 |
3% |
46% |
|
331 |
5% |
44% |
|
332 |
1.3% |
39% |
|
333 |
1.3% |
38% |
|
334 |
2% |
36% |
|
335 |
3% |
34% |
|
336 |
3% |
31% |
|
337 |
3% |
28% |
|
338 |
2% |
25% |
|
339 |
3% |
24% |
|
340 |
2% |
21% |
|
341 |
2% |
19% |
|
342 |
3% |
17% |
|
343 |
0.9% |
14% |
|
344 |
2% |
13% |
|
345 |
1.2% |
12% |
|
346 |
1.3% |
10% |
|
347 |
1.3% |
9% |
|
348 |
2% |
8% |
|
349 |
0.8% |
6% |
|
350 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
351 |
0.9% |
5% |
|
352 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
353 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
354 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
355 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
356 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
357 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
358 |
0.3% |
1.4% |
|
359 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
360 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
361 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
362 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
363 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
364 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
365 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
366 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
367 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
368 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
369 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
370 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
371 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
269 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
270 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
271 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
272 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
273 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
274 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
275 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
276 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
277 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
278 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
279 |
0.1% |
98.5% |
|
280 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
281 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
282 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
283 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
284 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
285 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
286 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
287 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
288 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
289 |
0.7% |
95% |
|
290 |
0.5% |
94% |
|
291 |
0.5% |
94% |
|
292 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
293 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
294 |
1.1% |
92% |
|
295 |
0.8% |
91% |
|
296 |
0.5% |
91% |
|
297 |
0.9% |
90% |
Last Result |
298 |
2% |
89% |
|
299 |
0.6% |
87% |
|
300 |
0.9% |
86% |
|
301 |
1.0% |
86% |
|
302 |
1.0% |
85% |
|
303 |
2% |
84% |
|
304 |
1.0% |
82% |
|
305 |
0.7% |
81% |
|
306 |
1.4% |
80% |
|
307 |
1.5% |
78% |
|
308 |
0.6% |
77% |
|
309 |
1.1% |
76% |
|
310 |
3% |
75% |
|
311 |
2% |
72% |
|
312 |
1.5% |
70% |
|
313 |
2% |
69% |
|
314 |
3% |
66% |
|
315 |
0.8% |
64% |
|
316 |
2% |
63% |
|
317 |
1.4% |
61% |
|
318 |
2% |
60% |
|
319 |
1.2% |
57% |
|
320 |
4% |
56% |
|
321 |
2% |
53% |
Median |
322 |
1.4% |
51% |
|
323 |
2% |
49% |
|
324 |
1.1% |
47% |
|
325 |
2% |
46% |
|
326 |
5% |
44% |
Majority |
327 |
1.5% |
39% |
|
328 |
0.8% |
37% |
|
329 |
2% |
36% |
|
330 |
3% |
34% |
|
331 |
3% |
31% |
|
332 |
3% |
28% |
|
333 |
2% |
25% |
|
334 |
3% |
23% |
|
335 |
2% |
21% |
|
336 |
1.4% |
19% |
|
337 |
3% |
18% |
|
338 |
0.9% |
14% |
|
339 |
1.3% |
13% |
|
340 |
0.9% |
12% |
|
341 |
2% |
11% |
|
342 |
1.1% |
9% |
|
343 |
2% |
8% |
|
344 |
0.7% |
6% |
|
345 |
0.8% |
6% |
|
346 |
1.0% |
5% |
|
347 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
348 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
349 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
350 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
351 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
352 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
353 |
0.3% |
1.4% |
|
354 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
355 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
356 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
357 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
358 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
359 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
360 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
361 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
362 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
363 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
364 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
365 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
366 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
250 |
0% |
100% |
|
251 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
252 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
253 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
254 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
255 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
256 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
257 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
258 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
259 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
260 |
0.3% |
99.3% |
|
261 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
262 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
263 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
264 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
265 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
|
266 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
267 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
268 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
269 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
270 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
271 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
272 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
273 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
274 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
275 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
276 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
277 |
1.1% |
95% |
|
278 |
0.7% |
94% |
Last Result |
279 |
0.2% |
93% |
|
280 |
1.2% |
93% |
|
281 |
0.3% |
92% |
|
282 |
1.1% |
91% |
|
283 |
0.5% |
90% |
|
284 |
0.5% |
90% |
|
285 |
1.2% |
89% |
|
286 |
1.1% |
88% |
|
287 |
0.7% |
87% |
|
288 |
0.3% |
86% |
|
289 |
1.4% |
86% |
|
290 |
0.9% |
85% |
|
291 |
0.6% |
84% |
|
292 |
1.1% |
83% |
|
293 |
0.8% |
82% |
|
294 |
2% |
81% |
|
295 |
0.7% |
80% |
|
296 |
0.7% |
79% |
|
297 |
2% |
78% |
|
298 |
1.5% |
77% |
|
299 |
2% |
75% |
|
300 |
2% |
73% |
|
301 |
1.3% |
71% |
|
302 |
1.4% |
69% |
|
303 |
2% |
68% |
|
304 |
0.9% |
66% |
|
305 |
3% |
65% |
|
306 |
2% |
62% |
|
307 |
1.1% |
60% |
|
308 |
2% |
59% |
|
309 |
1.3% |
58% |
|
310 |
2% |
56% |
|
311 |
2% |
54% |
|
312 |
0.8% |
52% |
|
313 |
3% |
52% |
Median |
314 |
2% |
49% |
|
315 |
0.7% |
47% |
|
316 |
3% |
46% |
|
317 |
2% |
43% |
|
318 |
2% |
40% |
|
319 |
0.9% |
38% |
|
320 |
1.1% |
37% |
|
321 |
1.3% |
36% |
|
322 |
4% |
35% |
|
323 |
2% |
31% |
|
324 |
3% |
29% |
|
325 |
1.0% |
26% |
|
326 |
2% |
25% |
Majority |
327 |
0.9% |
23% |
|
328 |
0.8% |
22% |
|
329 |
0.8% |
21% |
|
330 |
3% |
20% |
|
331 |
0.9% |
18% |
|
332 |
1.4% |
17% |
|
333 |
0.8% |
15% |
|
334 |
0.9% |
15% |
|
335 |
2% |
14% |
|
336 |
1.0% |
12% |
|
337 |
0.7% |
11% |
|
338 |
0.9% |
10% |
|
339 |
0.8% |
9% |
|
340 |
0.6% |
9% |
|
341 |
2% |
8% |
|
342 |
0.7% |
7% |
|
343 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
344 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
345 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
346 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
347 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
348 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
349 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
350 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
351 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
352 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
353 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
354 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
355 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
356 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
357 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
358 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
359 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
360 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
361 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
362 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
363 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
364 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
365 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
366 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
367 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
368 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
369 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
263 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
264 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
265 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
266 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
267 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
268 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
269 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
270 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
271 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
272 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
|
273 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
|
274 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
275 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
276 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
277 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
278 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
279 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
280 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
281 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
282 |
1.1% |
94% |
|
283 |
2% |
93% |
|
284 |
1.0% |
91% |
|
285 |
2% |
90% |
|
286 |
1.5% |
89% |
|
287 |
0.9% |
87% |
|
288 |
2% |
86% |
|
289 |
3% |
84% |
|
290 |
2% |
81% |
|
291 |
3% |
80% |
|
292 |
2% |
77% |
|
293 |
2% |
75% |
|
294 |
4% |
73% |
|
295 |
3% |
69% |
|
296 |
2% |
66% |
|
297 |
2% |
64% |
|
298 |
1.1% |
63% |
|
299 |
4% |
62% |
|
300 |
4% |
58% |
|
301 |
1.2% |
54% |
|
302 |
1.3% |
53% |
|
303 |
2% |
52% |
Median |
304 |
2% |
50% |
|
305 |
4% |
48% |
|
306 |
0.8% |
44% |
|
307 |
3% |
43% |
|
308 |
0.8% |
40% |
|
309 |
2% |
39% |
|
310 |
0.6% |
37% |
|
311 |
3% |
37% |
|
312 |
2% |
34% |
|
313 |
1.2% |
31% |
|
314 |
1.5% |
30% |
|
315 |
4% |
29% |
|
316 |
0.7% |
25% |
|
317 |
1.0% |
24% |
|
318 |
1.3% |
23% |
|
319 |
1.2% |
22% |
|
320 |
1.2% |
21% |
|
321 |
1.1% |
19% |
|
322 |
2% |
18% |
|
323 |
1.2% |
17% |
|
324 |
1.3% |
16% |
|
325 |
0.9% |
14% |
|
326 |
0.5% |
13% |
Majority |
327 |
2% |
13% |
|
328 |
1.1% |
11% |
|
329 |
0.5% |
10% |
Last Result |
330 |
0.8% |
9% |
|
331 |
1.2% |
9% |
|
332 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
333 |
0.6% |
7% |
|
334 |
0.5% |
7% |
|
335 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
336 |
0.7% |
6% |
|
337 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
338 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
339 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
340 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
341 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
342 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
343 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
344 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
345 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
346 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
347 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
348 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
349 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
350 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
351 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
352 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
353 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
354 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
355 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
356 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
357 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
358 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
359 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
245 |
0% |
100% |
|
246 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
247 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
248 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
249 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
250 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
251 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
252 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
253 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
254 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
255 |
0.3% |
99.3% |
|
256 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
257 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
258 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
259 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
260 |
0.2% |
98.5% |
|
261 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
262 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
263 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
264 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
265 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
266 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
267 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
268 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
269 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
270 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
271 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
272 |
1.1% |
95% |
|
273 |
0.8% |
94% |
|
274 |
0.2% |
93% |
Last Result |
275 |
1.2% |
93% |
|
276 |
0.4% |
91% |
|
277 |
0.9% |
91% |
|
278 |
0.5% |
90% |
|
279 |
0.5% |
90% |
|
280 |
1.3% |
89% |
|
281 |
1.0% |
88% |
|
282 |
0.7% |
87% |
|
283 |
0.4% |
86% |
|
284 |
1.3% |
86% |
|
285 |
1.0% |
84% |
|
286 |
0.6% |
83% |
|
287 |
1.0% |
83% |
|
288 |
0.6% |
82% |
|
289 |
2% |
81% |
|
290 |
0.4% |
80% |
|
291 |
0.9% |
79% |
|
292 |
2% |
78% |
|
293 |
1.3% |
76% |
|
294 |
2% |
75% |
|
295 |
2% |
73% |
|
296 |
2% |
71% |
|
297 |
1.4% |
69% |
|
298 |
2% |
68% |
|
299 |
1.1% |
66% |
|
300 |
2% |
64% |
|
301 |
2% |
62% |
|
302 |
1.1% |
60% |
|
303 |
2% |
59% |
|
304 |
1.2% |
57% |
|
305 |
2% |
56% |
|
306 |
2% |
54% |
|
307 |
0.9% |
52% |
|
308 |
3% |
51% |
Median |
309 |
2% |
48% |
|
310 |
0.6% |
46% |
|
311 |
2% |
46% |
|
312 |
3% |
44% |
|
313 |
2% |
40% |
|
314 |
1.0% |
38% |
|
315 |
1.4% |
37% |
|
316 |
1.0% |
36% |
|
317 |
4% |
35% |
|
318 |
2% |
31% |
|
319 |
3% |
29% |
|
320 |
1.3% |
26% |
|
321 |
2% |
25% |
|
322 |
1.2% |
23% |
|
323 |
0.9% |
22% |
|
324 |
0.9% |
21% |
|
325 |
2% |
20% |
|
326 |
0.8% |
18% |
Majority |
327 |
2% |
17% |
|
328 |
0.5% |
15% |
|
329 |
0.8% |
15% |
|
330 |
2% |
14% |
|
331 |
1.1% |
12% |
|
332 |
0.7% |
11% |
|
333 |
0.7% |
10% |
|
334 |
0.7% |
10% |
|
335 |
0.9% |
9% |
|
336 |
1.5% |
8% |
|
337 |
0.5% |
7% |
|
338 |
0.9% |
6% |
|
339 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
340 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
341 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
342 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
343 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
344 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
345 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
346 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
347 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
348 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
349 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
|
350 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
351 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
352 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
353 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
354 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
355 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
356 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
357 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
358 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
359 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
360 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
361 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
362 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
363 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
364 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
365 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
246 |
0% |
100% |
|
247 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
248 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
249 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
250 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
251 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
252 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
253 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
254 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
255 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
256 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
257 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
258 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
259 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
260 |
0.4% |
98.8% |
|
261 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
262 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
263 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
264 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
265 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
266 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
267 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
268 |
1.1% |
95% |
|
269 |
0.7% |
94% |
|
270 |
1.1% |
94% |
|
271 |
1.0% |
92% |
|
272 |
1.0% |
91% |
|
273 |
1.4% |
90% |
|
274 |
3% |
89% |
|
275 |
1.1% |
86% |
|
276 |
2% |
85% |
|
277 |
2% |
83% |
|
278 |
1.4% |
81% |
|
279 |
3% |
80% |
|
280 |
1.2% |
77% |
|
281 |
2% |
76% |
|
282 |
2% |
74% |
|
283 |
3% |
72% |
|
284 |
3% |
69% |
|
285 |
3% |
65% |
|
286 |
3% |
62% |
|
287 |
1.2% |
59% |
|
288 |
2% |
58% |
|
289 |
0.9% |
57% |
|
290 |
3% |
56% |
|
291 |
2% |
53% |
|
292 |
1.1% |
51% |
Median |
293 |
2% |
50% |
|
294 |
4% |
48% |
|
295 |
0.9% |
43% |
|
296 |
2% |
42% |
|
297 |
3% |
41% |
|
298 |
2% |
38% |
|
299 |
0.8% |
36% |
|
300 |
0.8% |
35% |
|
301 |
2% |
34% |
|
302 |
2% |
32% |
|
303 |
1.3% |
30% |
|
304 |
3% |
28% |
|
305 |
1.4% |
25% |
|
306 |
1.0% |
24% |
|
307 |
2% |
23% |
|
308 |
0.7% |
21% |
|
309 |
2% |
21% |
|
310 |
1.3% |
19% |
|
311 |
1.0% |
18% |
|
312 |
0.5% |
17% |
|
313 |
1.4% |
16% |
|
314 |
1.0% |
15% |
|
315 |
1.5% |
14% |
|
316 |
0.7% |
12% |
|
317 |
0.7% |
12% |
|
318 |
1.3% |
11% |
|
319 |
1.2% |
10% |
|
320 |
0.5% |
8% |
|
321 |
0.6% |
8% |
Last Result |
322 |
0.7% |
7% |
|
323 |
0.6% |
7% |
|
324 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
325 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
326 |
0.3% |
5% |
Majority |
327 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
328 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
329 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
330 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
331 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
332 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
333 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
334 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
335 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
336 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
337 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
338 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
340 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
341 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
342 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
343 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
344 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
345 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
346 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
347 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
348 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
349 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
350 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
351 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
237 |
0% |
100% |
|
238 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
239 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
240 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
241 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
242 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
243 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
244 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
245 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
246 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
247 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
248 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
249 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
250 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
|
251 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
252 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
253 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
254 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
255 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
256 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
257 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
258 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
259 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
260 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
261 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
262 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
263 |
1.1% |
94% |
|
264 |
0.7% |
93% |
|
265 |
0.6% |
93% |
|
266 |
1.0% |
92% |
Last Result |
267 |
1.2% |
91% |
|
268 |
0.9% |
90% |
|
269 |
0.8% |
89% |
|
270 |
0.8% |
88% |
|
271 |
0.5% |
87% |
|
272 |
1.3% |
87% |
|
273 |
0.9% |
86% |
|
274 |
0.2% |
85% |
|
275 |
0.5% |
84% |
|
276 |
1.2% |
84% |
|
277 |
2% |
83% |
|
278 |
1.0% |
81% |
|
279 |
1.4% |
80% |
|
280 |
1.1% |
78% |
|
281 |
0.9% |
77% |
|
282 |
1.3% |
76% |
|
283 |
3% |
75% |
|
284 |
1.3% |
71% |
|
285 |
0.8% |
70% |
|
286 |
1.1% |
69% |
|
287 |
1.1% |
68% |
|
288 |
2% |
67% |
|
289 |
3% |
65% |
|
290 |
2% |
62% |
|
291 |
2% |
60% |
|
292 |
1.3% |
59% |
|
293 |
1.1% |
57% |
|
294 |
2% |
56% |
|
295 |
2% |
54% |
|
296 |
2% |
52% |
|
297 |
3% |
51% |
Median |
298 |
2% |
47% |
|
299 |
2% |
46% |
|
300 |
2% |
44% |
|
301 |
2% |
42% |
|
302 |
2% |
40% |
|
303 |
2% |
37% |
|
304 |
1.0% |
35% |
|
305 |
3% |
34% |
|
306 |
3% |
31% |
|
307 |
1.5% |
29% |
|
308 |
2% |
27% |
|
309 |
0.8% |
25% |
|
310 |
3% |
25% |
|
311 |
0.9% |
22% |
|
312 |
2% |
21% |
|
313 |
0.9% |
19% |
|
314 |
2% |
18% |
|
315 |
0.8% |
16% |
|
316 |
1.3% |
15% |
|
317 |
1.1% |
14% |
|
318 |
1.1% |
13% |
|
319 |
0.9% |
12% |
|
320 |
0.4% |
11% |
|
321 |
2% |
10% |
|
322 |
1.0% |
9% |
|
323 |
0.6% |
8% |
|
324 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
325 |
2% |
7% |
|
326 |
0.6% |
5% |
Majority |
327 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
328 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
329 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
330 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
331 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
332 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
333 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
334 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
335 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
336 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
337 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
338 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
339 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
340 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
341 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
342 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
343 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
344 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
345 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
346 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
347 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
348 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
349 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
350 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
242 |
0% |
100% |
|
243 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
244 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
245 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
246 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
247 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
248 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
249 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
250 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
251 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
252 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
253 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
254 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
|
255 |
0.3% |
98.9% |
|
256 |
0.5% |
98.5% |
|
257 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
258 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
259 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
260 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
261 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
262 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
263 |
0.7% |
95% |
|
264 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
265 |
1.1% |
94% |
|
266 |
0.9% |
93% |
|
267 |
1.1% |
92% |
|
268 |
1.3% |
90% |
|
269 |
2% |
89% |
|
270 |
1.3% |
87% |
|
271 |
2% |
85% |
|
272 |
2% |
83% |
|
273 |
1.4% |
81% |
|
274 |
3% |
80% |
|
275 |
1.1% |
77% |
|
276 |
1.2% |
75% |
|
277 |
2% |
74% |
|
278 |
4% |
72% |
|
279 |
3% |
68% |
|
280 |
4% |
66% |
|
281 |
3% |
62% |
|
282 |
0.9% |
59% |
|
283 |
2% |
58% |
|
284 |
0.9% |
57% |
|
285 |
3% |
56% |
|
286 |
2% |
53% |
|
287 |
2% |
51% |
Median |
288 |
2% |
49% |
|
289 |
4% |
47% |
|
290 |
0.9% |
43% |
|
291 |
2% |
42% |
|
292 |
3% |
41% |
|
293 |
2% |
37% |
|
294 |
0.7% |
35% |
|
295 |
0.7% |
35% |
|
296 |
2% |
34% |
|
297 |
2% |
32% |
|
298 |
2% |
30% |
|
299 |
3% |
28% |
|
300 |
0.6% |
25% |
|
301 |
2% |
24% |
|
302 |
2% |
23% |
|
303 |
0.6% |
21% |
|
304 |
1.4% |
20% |
|
305 |
1.4% |
19% |
|
306 |
1.1% |
18% |
|
307 |
0.3% |
17% |
|
308 |
2% |
16% |
|
309 |
1.0% |
15% |
|
310 |
1.2% |
14% |
|
311 |
1.1% |
13% |
|
312 |
0.5% |
12% |
|
313 |
1.3% |
11% |
|
314 |
1.3% |
10% |
|
315 |
0.6% |
8% |
|
316 |
0.5% |
8% |
|
317 |
0.6% |
7% |
Last Result |
318 |
0.7% |
7% |
|
319 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
320 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
321 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
322 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
323 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
324 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
325 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
326 |
0.5% |
3% |
Majority |
327 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
328 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
329 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
330 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
331 |
0.2% |
1.5% |
|
332 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
333 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
334 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
335 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
336 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
337 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
338 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
339 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
340 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
341 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
342 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
343 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
344 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
232 |
0% |
100% |
|
233 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
234 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
235 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
236 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
237 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
238 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
239 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
240 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
241 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
242 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
243 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
244 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
245 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
|
246 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
247 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
248 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
249 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
250 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
251 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
252 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
253 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
254 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
255 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
256 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
257 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
258 |
1.1% |
94% |
|
259 |
0.7% |
93% |
|
260 |
0.8% |
93% |
|
261 |
0.8% |
92% |
|
262 |
1.2% |
91% |
Last Result |
263 |
0.8% |
90% |
|
264 |
0.8% |
89% |
|
265 |
0.8% |
88% |
|
266 |
0.6% |
87% |
|
267 |
1.3% |
87% |
|
268 |
0.9% |
85% |
|
269 |
0.5% |
85% |
|
270 |
0.3% |
84% |
|
271 |
1.3% |
84% |
|
272 |
2% |
83% |
|
273 |
1.2% |
81% |
|
274 |
1.2% |
79% |
|
275 |
1.1% |
78% |
|
276 |
1.0% |
77% |
|
277 |
1.3% |
76% |
|
278 |
3% |
75% |
|
279 |
2% |
72% |
|
280 |
0.7% |
70% |
|
281 |
1.1% |
69% |
|
282 |
0.9% |
68% |
|
283 |
2% |
67% |
|
284 |
3% |
65% |
|
285 |
2% |
62% |
|
286 |
1.5% |
60% |
|
287 |
2% |
58% |
|
288 |
1.1% |
57% |
|
289 |
1.4% |
56% |
|
290 |
2% |
54% |
|
291 |
1.5% |
52% |
|
292 |
3% |
51% |
Median |
293 |
2% |
47% |
|
294 |
2% |
46% |
|
295 |
2% |
44% |
|
296 |
2% |
42% |
|
297 |
3% |
40% |
|
298 |
2% |
37% |
|
299 |
1.0% |
35% |
|
300 |
3% |
34% |
|
301 |
3% |
31% |
|
302 |
2% |
29% |
|
303 |
1.4% |
27% |
|
304 |
1.2% |
26% |
|
305 |
2% |
24% |
|
306 |
1.2% |
22% |
|
307 |
2% |
21% |
|
308 |
0.7% |
19% |
|
309 |
2% |
18% |
|
310 |
1.1% |
16% |
|
311 |
1.3% |
15% |
|
312 |
1.0% |
14% |
|
313 |
1.1% |
13% |
|
314 |
0.8% |
12% |
|
315 |
0.4% |
11% |
|
316 |
2% |
11% |
|
317 |
0.8% |
9% |
|
318 |
0.7% |
8% |
|
319 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
320 |
2% |
7% |
|
321 |
0.7% |
6% |
|
322 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
323 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
324 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
325 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
326 |
0.3% |
3% |
Majority |
327 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
328 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
329 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
330 |
0.2% |
1.5% |
|
331 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
332 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
333 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
334 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
335 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
336 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
337 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
338 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
340 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
341 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
342 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
343 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
344 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: BMG Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 9–12 January 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1513
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.96%