Opinion Poll by ICM Research for The Guardian, 12–14 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 40.0% 41.3% 39.9–42.7% 39.5–43.1% 39.2–43.5% 38.5–44.1%
Conservative Party 42.4% 40.3% 38.9–41.7% 38.5–42.1% 38.2–42.5% 37.5–43.1%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 7.1% 6.4–7.8% 6.2–8.1% 6.0–8.3% 5.7–8.7%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 4.0% 3.5–4.7% 3.4–4.8% 3.3–5.0% 3.0–5.3%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 262 292 258–311 258–318 257–323 242–336
Conservative Party 317 288 275–315 270–325 266–332 260–335
Liberal Democrats 12 13 6–16 5–16 4–17 3–19
UK Independence Party 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Scottish National Party 35 30 16–49 9–51 6–52 4–54
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 5 4–5 4–5 4–8 4–8

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0.3% 99.7%  
243 0% 99.3%  
244 0% 99.3%  
245 0.1% 99.3%  
246 0.1% 99.2%  
247 0.2% 99.1%  
248 0.2% 99.0%  
249 0.5% 98.8%  
250 0.3% 98%  
251 0.1% 98%  
252 0.1% 98%  
253 0.1% 98%  
254 0% 98%  
255 0% 98%  
256 0.1% 98%  
257 0.3% 98%  
258 8% 97%  
259 0.2% 89%  
260 0.4% 89%  
261 0.1% 89%  
262 0.2% 89% Last Result
263 0.9% 88%  
264 3% 87%  
265 0.4% 84%  
266 0.2% 84%  
267 0.1% 83%  
268 2% 83%  
269 0.8% 81%  
270 0.2% 80%  
271 0.6% 80%  
272 2% 79%  
273 0.3% 77%  
274 0.1% 77%  
275 2% 77%  
276 0.1% 75%  
277 0.1% 75%  
278 1.5% 74%  
279 0.3% 73%  
280 0.3% 73%  
281 0.1% 72%  
282 1.1% 72%  
283 0.3% 71%  
284 4% 71%  
285 7% 67%  
286 6% 60%  
287 2% 55%  
288 0.5% 53%  
289 1.0% 52%  
290 0.3% 51%  
291 0.5% 51%  
292 2% 50% Median
293 4% 48%  
294 14% 44%  
295 1.4% 30%  
296 0.1% 29%  
297 0.3% 29%  
298 4% 29%  
299 2% 24%  
300 1.0% 22%  
301 2% 21%  
302 1.4% 19%  
303 1.0% 17%  
304 0.9% 16%  
305 0.9% 15%  
306 1.3% 14%  
307 0.8% 13%  
308 1.1% 12%  
309 0.6% 11%  
310 0.2% 11%  
311 2% 10%  
312 0.1% 9%  
313 0.4% 9%  
314 0.1% 8%  
315 0.1% 8%  
316 0.2% 8%  
317 3% 8%  
318 0.8% 5%  
319 1.0% 5%  
320 0.1% 4%  
321 0.7% 3%  
322 0.1% 3%  
323 0.2% 3%  
324 0.2% 2%  
325 0.5% 2%  
326 0.3% 2% Majority
327 0.2% 1.3%  
328 0.1% 1.1%  
329 0% 1.0%  
330 0.1% 1.0%  
331 0% 0.9%  
332 0.1% 0.9%  
333 0% 0.7%  
334 0.2% 0.7%  
335 0% 0.6%  
336 0.1% 0.5%  
337 0.3% 0.4%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
252 0% 100%  
253 0.1% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.8%  
256 0.1% 99.7%  
257 0% 99.7%  
258 0.1% 99.7%  
259 0.1% 99.6%  
260 0.1% 99.5%  
261 0.3% 99.4%  
262 0.7% 99.1%  
263 0.6% 98%  
264 0.1% 98%  
265 0.1% 98%  
266 0.4% 98%  
267 0.4% 97%  
268 1.0% 97%  
269 0.6% 96%  
270 3% 95%  
271 0.1% 93%  
272 0.2% 93%  
273 0.8% 92%  
274 0.9% 92%  
275 1.3% 91%  
276 8% 89%  
277 2% 81%  
278 6% 80%  
279 0.6% 73%  
280 7% 73%  
281 1.5% 66%  
282 0.1% 64%  
283 0.4% 64%  
284 2% 64%  
285 3% 62%  
286 0.5% 59%  
287 0.3% 58%  
288 11% 58% Median
289 0.1% 47%  
290 4% 46%  
291 4% 42%  
292 0.4% 39%  
293 0.1% 38%  
294 2% 38%  
295 0.7% 36%  
296 0.4% 35%  
297 0.7% 35%  
298 1.2% 34%  
299 1.0% 33%  
300 0.6% 32%  
301 0.8% 31%  
302 0.7% 31%  
303 2% 30%  
304 1.0% 27%  
305 4% 26%  
306 0.2% 23%  
307 0.8% 23%  
308 2% 22%  
309 0.3% 20%  
310 0.2% 20%  
311 0.2% 20%  
312 0.4% 19%  
313 0.3% 19%  
314 8% 19%  
315 2% 11%  
316 1.4% 9%  
317 0.1% 7% Last Result
318 0% 7%  
319 0% 7%  
320 0.7% 7%  
321 0.6% 7%  
322 0% 6%  
323 0% 6%  
324 0.1% 6%  
325 1.1% 6%  
326 0.1% 5% Majority
327 0.2% 5%  
328 0.1% 4%  
329 0% 4%  
330 0% 4%  
331 0.1% 4%  
332 3% 4%  
333 0% 1.0%  
334 0.1% 0.9%  
335 0.4% 0.8%  
336 0% 0.4%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.3%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0.1% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 1.3% 99.9%  
4 1.2% 98.6%  
5 4% 97%  
6 4% 93%  
7 1.5% 89%  
8 8% 88%  
9 5% 80%  
10 3% 74%  
11 6% 72%  
12 10% 65% Last Result
13 6% 55% Median
14 11% 49%  
15 27% 38%  
16 8% 11%  
17 1.4% 3%  
18 0.6% 2%  
19 0.8% 1.2%  
20 0.2% 0.4%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100% Last Result
1 87% 87% Median
2 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.3% 100%  
3 0.1% 99.7%  
4 0.7% 99.6%  
5 1.2% 98.8%  
6 0.4% 98%  
7 0.8% 97%  
8 0.3% 96%  
9 3% 96%  
10 0.1% 93%  
11 1.3% 93%  
12 0.2% 92%  
13 0.8% 92%  
14 0.7% 91%  
15 0% 90%  
16 2% 90%  
17 1.2% 88%  
18 1.1% 87%  
19 2% 85%  
20 3% 84%  
21 0.4% 80%  
22 2% 80%  
23 2% 78%  
24 2% 76%  
25 3% 74%  
26 0.9% 71%  
27 0.7% 70%  
28 15% 70%  
29 2% 55%  
30 3% 52% Median
31 0.7% 49%  
32 0.8% 49%  
33 0.3% 48%  
34 0.8% 48%  
35 0.3% 47% Last Result
36 0.6% 46%  
37 0.8% 46%  
38 0.9% 45%  
39 2% 44%  
40 2% 42%  
41 8% 40%  
42 0.2% 32%  
43 2% 32%  
44 2% 29%  
45 6% 27%  
46 2% 21%  
47 8% 20%  
48 0.5% 12%  
49 2% 11%  
50 2% 9%  
51 4% 8%  
52 1.4% 3%  
53 0.4% 2%  
54 1.1% 1.4%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.3% 99.9%  
4 11% 99.6% Last Result
5 84% 89% Median
6 2% 5%  
7 0.3% 3%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 342 74% 315–355 305–360 298–364 295–371
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 330 57% 305–360 297–360 294–363 278–376
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 337 69% 311–350 300–356 293–359 290–366
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 325 39% 300–355 292–355 289–359 274–371
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 329 62% 304–345 295–349 289–352 283–358
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 322 42% 299–341 290–344 284–347 278–353
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 305 14% 275–331 275–338 272–342 259–356
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 302 18% 285–326 281–335 278–341 273–347
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 293 6% 280–319 274–330 271–337 265–340
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 300 10% 270–325 270–333 267–337 254–352
Conservative Party 317 288 5% 275–315 270–325 266–332 260–335
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 296 3% 263–316 263–323 262–328 247–341
Labour Party 262 292 2% 258–311 258–318 257–323 242–336

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.8%  
293 0.1% 99.7%  
294 0% 99.6%  
295 0.4% 99.6%  
296 0.2% 99.2%  
297 0% 99.1%  
298 3% 99.0%  
299 0.1% 96%  
300 0% 96%  
301 0% 96%  
302 0.1% 96%  
303 0.2% 96%  
304 0.1% 95%  
305 1.1% 95%  
306 0.1% 94%  
307 0% 94%  
308 0% 94%  
309 0.6% 94%  
310 0.7% 93%  
311 0% 93%  
312 0% 93%  
313 0.1% 93% Last Result
314 1.5% 93%  
315 2% 91%  
316 8% 89%  
317 0.2% 81%  
318 0.4% 81%  
319 0.2% 81%  
320 0.2% 80%  
321 0.2% 80%  
322 2% 80%  
323 0.5% 78%  
324 0.4% 78%  
325 4% 77%  
326 1.0% 74% Majority
327 2% 73%  
328 0.7% 70%  
329 0.2% 69%  
330 1.1% 69%  
331 1.0% 68%  
332 0.9% 67%  
333 1.0% 66%  
334 0.3% 65%  
335 0.7% 65%  
336 2% 64%  
337 0.2% 62%  
338 0.2% 62%  
339 3% 62%  
340 5% 59% Median
341 0.5% 54%  
342 11% 53%  
343 0.4% 42%  
344 0.5% 42%  
345 2% 41%  
346 3% 40%  
347 0.6% 36%  
348 0.2% 36%  
349 0.9% 36%  
350 6% 35%  
351 2% 28%  
352 6% 27%  
353 0.7% 20%  
354 8% 20%  
355 2% 12%  
356 1.0% 10%  
357 0.9% 9%  
358 0.3% 8%  
359 0.1% 7%  
360 3% 7%  
361 0.4% 5%  
362 0.5% 4%  
363 1.1% 4%  
364 0.5% 3%  
365 0.1% 2%  
366 0% 2%  
367 0.4% 2%  
368 0.9% 2%  
369 0% 0.9%  
370 0.3% 0.9%  
371 0.2% 0.6%  
372 0.1% 0.4%  
373 0% 0.3%  
374 0% 0.3%  
375 0.1% 0.3%  
376 0.1% 0.2%  
377 0.1% 0.2%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0.1% 99.9%  
278 0.3% 99.8%  
279 0.1% 99.5%  
280 0% 99.4%  
281 0% 99.4%  
282 0% 99.4%  
283 0% 99.4%  
284 0% 99.4%  
285 0.1% 99.3%  
286 0.2% 99.2%  
287 0.1% 99.0%  
288 0.2% 98.9%  
289 0.1% 98.7%  
290 0.4% 98.6%  
291 0% 98%  
292 0.5% 98%  
293 0% 98%  
294 0.8% 98%  
295 0.1% 97%  
296 0.2% 97%  
297 2% 97%  
298 0.9% 95%  
299 0.7% 94%  
300 0.1% 93%  
301 0.2% 93%  
302 0.1% 93%  
303 0.2% 93%  
304 3% 93%  
305 0.1% 90%  
306 0.6% 90%  
307 0.3% 89%  
308 2% 89%  
309 0.7% 87%  
310 0.1% 86%  
311 0.1% 86%  
312 0.7% 86%  
313 2% 85%  
314 0.4% 83%  
315 1.3% 83%  
316 2% 82%  
317 2% 80%  
318 1.0% 78%  
319 0.7% 77%  
320 3% 76%  
321 11% 73%  
322 0.3% 62%  
323 2% 61% Median
324 0.5% 59%  
325 2% 59%  
326 2% 57% Majority
327 2% 55%  
328 1.0% 53%  
329 1.2% 52%  
330 12% 51%  
331 0% 39%  
332 5% 39%  
333 0.1% 34%  
334 0.7% 34%  
335 0.1% 33%  
336 0.4% 33%  
337 1.4% 32%  
338 4% 31%  
339 1.0% 27%  
340 0.3% 26%  
341 0.2% 26%  
342 0.1% 26%  
343 0.2% 26%  
344 0.6% 26%  
345 1.0% 25%  
346 1.1% 24%  
347 0.8% 23%  
348 1.1% 22%  
349 1.4% 21%  
350 0.1% 19%  
351 0.2% 19%  
352 1.0% 19%  
353 0.1% 18%  
354 0.5% 18%  
355 1.2% 18%  
356 0.4% 16% Last Result
357 3% 16%  
358 0.9% 13%  
359 1.0% 12%  
360 8% 11%  
361 0% 3%  
362 0% 3%  
363 0% 3%  
364 0.3% 2%  
365 0.1% 2%  
366 0.2% 2%  
367 0% 2%  
368 0.1% 2%  
369 0.1% 2%  
370 0% 2%  
371 0.1% 2%  
372 0.4% 2%  
373 0.1% 1.1%  
374 0.1% 1.0%  
375 0% 0.9%  
376 0.4% 0.8%  
377 0.1% 0.5%  
378 0% 0.4%  
379 0% 0.3%  
380 0% 0.3%  
381 0% 0.3%  
382 0% 0.3%  
383 0% 0.3%  
384 0.1% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.8%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.7%  
289 0% 99.6%  
290 0.4% 99.6%  
291 0.1% 99.2%  
292 0% 99.1%  
293 3% 99.0%  
294 0.1% 96%  
295 0% 96%  
296 0% 96%  
297 0.2% 96%  
298 0.2% 96%  
299 0% 95%  
300 0.7% 95%  
301 0.4% 95%  
302 0% 94%  
303 0% 94%  
304 0.5% 94%  
305 0.9% 94%  
306 0% 93%  
307 0% 93%  
308 0.1% 93%  
309 1.4% 93% Last Result
310 1.0% 91%  
311 9% 90%  
312 0.2% 81%  
313 0.4% 81%  
314 0.2% 81%  
315 0.3% 80%  
316 0.2% 80%  
317 1.1% 80%  
318 0.9% 79%  
319 0.7% 78%  
320 4% 77%  
321 0.9% 74%  
322 2% 73%  
323 0.8% 71%  
324 0.6% 70%  
325 0.7% 69%  
326 2% 69% Majority
327 0.9% 67%  
328 1.0% 66%  
329 0.3% 65%  
330 0.4% 65%  
331 2% 64%  
332 0.1% 62%  
333 0.3% 62%  
334 4% 62%  
335 4% 58% Median
336 0.3% 54%  
337 11% 53%  
338 1.4% 42%  
339 0.4% 41%  
340 2% 41%  
341 2% 39%  
342 1.1% 37%  
343 0.2% 36%  
344 0.8% 36%  
345 6% 35%  
346 2% 28%  
347 7% 27%  
348 0.1% 20%  
349 8% 20%  
350 2% 12%  
351 0.6% 10%  
352 1.0% 9%  
353 0.5% 8%  
354 0.2% 8%  
355 1.5% 7%  
356 1.2% 6%  
357 0.7% 5%  
358 1.1% 4%  
359 0.5% 3%  
360 0.2% 2%  
361 0% 2%  
362 0.1% 2%  
363 1.2% 2%  
364 0% 0.9%  
365 0.1% 0.9%  
366 0.4% 0.8%  
367 0.1% 0.5%  
368 0% 0.3%  
369 0% 0.3%  
370 0% 0.3%  
371 0.1% 0.3%  
372 0.1% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
271 0% 100%  
272 0.1% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0.4% 99.8%  
275 0% 99.4%  
276 0% 99.4%  
277 0% 99.4%  
278 0% 99.4%  
279 0% 99.4%  
280 0.1% 99.3%  
281 0.2% 99.3%  
282 0% 99.0%  
283 0.1% 99.0%  
284 0.3% 98.9%  
285 0.4% 98.6%  
286 0% 98%  
287 0.4% 98%  
288 0.2% 98%  
289 0.5% 98%  
290 0.3% 97%  
291 0.2% 97%  
292 2% 97%  
293 0.9% 95%  
294 0.8% 94%  
295 0.1% 93%  
296 0.1% 93%  
297 0.1% 93%  
298 0.3% 93%  
299 3% 93%  
300 1.1% 90%  
301 0.3% 89%  
302 0.4% 89%  
303 2% 88%  
304 0.7% 87%  
305 0.1% 86%  
306 0.2% 86%  
307 0.7% 86%  
308 2% 85%  
309 0.4% 83%  
310 0.9% 83%  
311 0.8% 82%  
312 3% 81%  
313 1.1% 78%  
314 0.2% 77%  
315 3% 77%  
316 12% 74%  
317 0.6% 62%  
318 2% 61% Median
319 0.3% 59%  
320 2% 59%  
321 2% 57%  
322 2% 55%  
323 0.9% 53%  
324 0.9% 52%  
325 12% 51%  
326 0% 39% Majority
327 5% 39%  
328 0.1% 34%  
329 0.7% 34%  
330 0.1% 33%  
331 0.3% 33%  
332 0.3% 32%  
333 5% 32%  
334 1.0% 27%  
335 0.1% 26%  
336 0.3% 26%  
337 0.2% 26%  
338 0.1% 26%  
339 0.9% 26%  
340 2% 25%  
341 0.2% 23%  
342 0.1% 23%  
343 2% 22%  
344 0.8% 21%  
345 0.6% 20%  
346 0.3% 19%  
347 1.0% 19%  
348 0% 18%  
349 0.2% 18%  
350 2% 18%  
351 0.4% 16%  
352 3% 16% Last Result
353 0.2% 13%  
354 2% 12%  
355 8% 11%  
356 0% 3%  
357 0% 3%  
358 0% 3%  
359 0.3% 3%  
360 0.1% 2%  
361 0.2% 2%  
362 0% 2%  
363 0.1% 2%  
364 0% 2%  
365 0% 2%  
366 0.1% 2%  
367 0.2% 2%  
368 0.5% 1.4%  
369 0% 0.9%  
370 0% 0.9%  
371 0.4% 0.8%  
372 0.1% 0.4%  
373 0% 0.3%  
374 0% 0.3%  
375 0% 0.3%  
376 0% 0.3%  
377 0% 0.3%  
378 0% 0.3%  
379 0.1% 0.2%  
380 0.1% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.8%  
283 0.4% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.4%  
285 0.1% 99.2%  
286 0% 99.2%  
287 0.1% 99.1%  
288 0.1% 99.1%  
289 3% 99.0%  
290 0.1% 96%  
291 0.1% 96%  
292 0.1% 96%  
293 0.3% 95%  
294 0% 95%  
295 0.3% 95%  
296 1.1% 95%  
297 0.1% 94%  
298 0% 94%  
299 0.1% 94%  
300 1.2% 93%  
301 0.1% 92% Last Result
302 0.1% 92%  
303 2% 92%  
304 9% 90%  
305 0.1% 82%  
306 0.3% 82%  
307 1.1% 81%  
308 0% 80%  
309 0.8% 80%  
310 0.1% 79%  
311 1.0% 79%  
312 3% 78%  
313 0.8% 76%  
314 0% 75%  
315 1.0% 75%  
316 0.4% 74%  
317 4% 73%  
318 1.3% 70%  
319 0.2% 69%  
320 0.9% 68%  
321 0.1% 67%  
322 1.3% 67%  
323 2% 66%  
324 0.2% 64%  
325 1.3% 64%  
326 0.3% 62% Majority
327 12% 62% Median
328 0% 50%  
329 3% 50%  
330 4% 47%  
331 2% 43%  
332 2% 42%  
333 2% 40%  
334 1.0% 38%  
335 0.8% 37%  
336 6% 36%  
337 7% 29%  
338 3% 22%  
339 2% 20%  
340 0.1% 18%  
341 4% 18%  
342 0.5% 15%  
343 2% 14%  
344 0.7% 12%  
345 2% 11%  
346 0.1% 9%  
347 0.7% 9%  
348 1.0% 9%  
349 4% 8%  
350 0.2% 3%  
351 0.4% 3%  
352 0.9% 3%  
353 0.2% 2%  
354 0.1% 2%  
355 0.2% 2%  
356 0.1% 2%  
357 0.7% 1.4%  
358 0.3% 0.7%  
359 0.2% 0.5%  
360 0% 0.3%  
361 0% 0.3%  
362 0.1% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0.1% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.8%  
277 0% 99.8%  
278 0.4% 99.8%  
279 0.1% 99.3%  
280 0.1% 99.2%  
281 0% 99.2%  
282 0% 99.1%  
283 0.1% 99.1%  
284 3% 99.0%  
285 0.1% 96%  
286 0% 96%  
287 0.2% 96%  
288 0.3% 95%  
289 0% 95%  
290 0.2% 95%  
291 0.9% 95%  
292 0.4% 94%  
293 0.1% 94%  
294 0% 93%  
295 0.2% 93%  
296 1.1% 93%  
297 0.1% 92% Last Result
298 2% 92%  
299 9% 90%  
300 0.1% 82%  
301 0.2% 81%  
302 1.1% 81%  
303 0% 80%  
304 0.6% 80%  
305 0.2% 80%  
306 1.0% 79%  
307 3% 78%  
308 0.1% 76%  
309 0.7% 76%  
310 1.0% 75%  
311 0.4% 74%  
312 4% 73%  
313 0.6% 70%  
314 0.8% 69%  
315 0.5% 68%  
316 0.6% 68%  
317 0.2% 67%  
318 3% 67%  
319 0.2% 64%  
320 1.2% 64%  
321 0.3% 62%  
322 12% 62% Median
323 0.4% 50%  
324 5% 50%  
325 2% 45%  
326 2% 42% Majority
327 0.9% 41%  
328 2% 40%  
329 0.8% 38%  
330 0.6% 37%  
331 7% 36%  
332 7% 30%  
333 3% 23%  
334 2% 20%  
335 0.4% 18%  
336 3% 18%  
337 0.6% 15%  
338 2% 14%  
339 0.8% 12%  
340 1.0% 11%  
341 1.0% 10%  
342 0.5% 9%  
343 1.1% 9%  
344 4% 8%  
345 0.3% 4%  
346 0.5% 3%  
347 0.5% 3%  
348 0.5% 2%  
349 0.1% 2%  
350 0.3% 2%  
351 0% 1.5%  
352 0.5% 1.4%  
353 0.5% 1.0%  
354 0.2% 0.5%  
355 0% 0.3%  
356 0% 0.3%  
357 0.1% 0.3%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0.1% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0.1% 100%  
251 0.1% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.8%  
253 0% 99.8%  
254 0% 99.7%  
255 0% 99.7%  
256 0% 99.7%  
257 0% 99.7%  
258 0.1% 99.7%  
259 0.3% 99.6%  
260 0.1% 99.2%  
261 0% 99.1%  
262 0.5% 99.1%  
263 0.2% 98.6%  
264 0.1% 98%  
265 0% 98%  
266 0% 98%  
267 0.1% 98%  
268 0.1% 98%  
269 0.2% 98%  
270 0.1% 98%  
271 0.3% 98%  
272 0% 98%  
273 0% 97%  
274 0% 97%  
275 8% 97%  
276 2% 89%  
277 0.2% 88%  
278 3% 87% Last Result
279 0.4% 84%  
280 2% 84%  
281 0.1% 82%  
282 0% 82%  
283 1.0% 82%  
284 0.3% 81%  
285 0.6% 81%  
286 0.8% 80%  
287 2% 79%  
288 0.1% 78%  
289 0.3% 77%  
290 0.9% 77%  
291 2% 76%  
292 0.2% 75%  
293 0.1% 74%  
294 0.4% 74%  
295 0.2% 74%  
296 0.4% 74%  
297 5% 73%  
298 0.1% 68%  
299 0.5% 68%  
300 0.1% 67%  
301 0.7% 67%  
302 0.1% 66%  
303 5% 66%  
304 0.3% 61%  
305 12% 61%  
306 0.5% 49%  
307 1.4% 49%  
308 2% 47%  
309 2% 45%  
310 2% 43% Median
311 0.3% 41%  
312 2% 41%  
313 0.7% 39%  
314 12% 38%  
315 2% 26%  
316 0.8% 24%  
317 1.1% 23%  
318 2% 22%  
319 0.8% 20%  
320 1.4% 19%  
321 0.4% 18%  
322 2% 17%  
323 0.7% 15%  
324 0.3% 14%  
325 0.1% 14%  
326 0.6% 14% Majority
327 1.0% 13%  
328 1.0% 12%  
329 0.3% 11%  
330 0.9% 11%  
331 1.1% 10%  
332 2% 9%  
333 0.2% 7%  
334 0.1% 7%  
335 0.1% 7%  
336 0.8% 7%  
337 0.1% 6%  
338 2% 6%  
339 0% 3%  
340 0.5% 3%  
341 0.1% 3%  
342 0.5% 3%  
343 0.4% 2%  
344 0.1% 2%  
345 0% 2%  
346 0.6% 2%  
347 0.1% 1.1%  
348 0% 1.0%  
349 0.1% 1.0%  
350 0.2% 0.9%  
351 0.1% 0.7%  
352 0% 0.6%  
353 0% 0.6%  
354 0% 0.6%  
355 0% 0.6%  
356 0.4% 0.6%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0.1% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.8%  
270 0% 99.7%  
271 0% 99.7%  
272 0.2% 99.7%  
273 0.7% 99.5%  
274 0.4% 98.8%  
275 0.2% 98%  
276 0.1% 98%  
277 0.1% 98%  
278 0.8% 98%  
279 0.3% 97%  
280 0.4% 97%  
281 4% 97%  
282 0.3% 93%  
283 1.5% 92%  
284 0.2% 91%  
285 2% 91%  
286 0.7% 89%  
287 1.0% 88%  
288 1.3% 87%  
289 4% 86%  
290 0.4% 82%  
291 0.6% 82%  
292 3% 81%  
293 7% 79%  
294 6% 71%  
295 1.5% 65%  
296 1.1% 64%  
297 2% 62%  
298 2% 60%  
299 1.0% 58%  
300 3% 57%  
301 5% 55% Median
302 0.1% 50%  
303 12% 50%  
304 0.6% 38%  
305 1.1% 38%  
306 0.4% 37%  
307 2% 36%  
308 0.8% 34%  
309 0.6% 33%  
310 1.0% 33%  
311 0.2% 32%  
312 1.3% 31%  
313 4% 30%  
314 0.5% 27%  
315 1.0% 26%  
316 0% 25%  
317 0.8% 25%  
318 3% 24%  
319 1.0% 22%  
320 0% 21%  
321 0.5% 21%  
322 0.3% 20%  
323 1.1% 20%  
324 0.2% 19%  
325 0.2% 18%  
326 9% 18% Majority
327 2% 10%  
328 0.1% 8%  
329 0.1% 8% Last Result
330 1.2% 8%  
331 0.1% 7%  
332 0.1% 7%  
333 0% 6%  
334 1.2% 6%  
335 0.3% 5%  
336 0.1% 5%  
337 0.3% 5%  
338 0.1% 5%  
339 0.1% 4%  
340 0.1% 4%  
341 3% 4%  
342 0.1% 1.0%  
343 0.1% 0.9%  
344 0% 0.9%  
345 0% 0.8%  
346 0.1% 0.8%  
347 0.4% 0.6%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0.1% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0.1% 99.9%  
259 0.1% 99.9%  
260 0.1% 99.8%  
261 0% 99.7%  
262 0% 99.7%  
263 0.1% 99.7%  
264 0% 99.5%  
265 0.4% 99.5%  
266 0.1% 99.1%  
267 0.9% 99.1%  
268 0.4% 98%  
269 0% 98%  
270 0.2% 98%  
271 0.4% 98%  
272 0.3% 97%  
273 1.2% 97%  
274 1.5% 96%  
275 1.5% 94%  
276 0.1% 93%  
277 0.4% 93%  
278 1.0% 92%  
279 0.7% 91%  
280 1.1% 90%  
281 8% 89%  
282 1.2% 81%  
283 7% 80%  
284 0.3% 73%  
285 8% 73%  
286 0.8% 65%  
287 0.1% 64%  
288 0.9% 64%  
289 0.4% 63%  
290 4% 63%  
291 0.3% 59%  
292 1.4% 59%  
293 11% 58% Median
294 0.2% 47%  
295 4% 47%  
296 3% 43%  
297 1.1% 39%  
298 0.2% 38%  
299 2% 38%  
300 0.6% 36%  
301 0.3% 35%  
302 0.8% 35%  
303 1.2% 34%  
304 1.0% 33%  
305 1.3% 32%  
306 0.6% 31%  
307 0.8% 30%  
308 2% 29%  
309 0.9% 27%  
310 3% 26%  
311 0.5% 23%  
312 1.2% 22%  
313 1.1% 21%  
314 0.2% 20%  
315 0.3% 20%  
316 0% 20%  
317 0.5% 20%  
318 0.2% 19%  
319 9% 19%  
320 0.9% 10%  
321 1.4% 9% Last Result
322 0.1% 7%  
323 0.1% 7%  
324 0% 7%  
325 0.9% 7%  
326 0.5% 6% Majority
327 0% 6%  
328 0% 6%  
329 0.5% 6%  
330 0.7% 5%  
331 0% 5%  
332 0.2% 5%  
333 0.1% 4%  
334 0.1% 4%  
335 0% 4%  
336 0.1% 4%  
337 3% 4%  
338 0% 1.0%  
339 0.2% 1.0%  
340 0.3% 0.8%  
341 0.1% 0.5%  
342 0.1% 0.4%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0.1% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
245 0.1% 100%  
246 0.1% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.8%  
248 0% 99.8%  
249 0% 99.7%  
250 0% 99.7%  
251 0% 99.7%  
252 0% 99.7%  
253 0.1% 99.6%  
254 0.4% 99.6%  
255 0.1% 99.2%  
256 0.1% 99.1%  
257 0.1% 99.0%  
258 0.4% 98.9%  
259 0.1% 98%  
260 0% 98%  
261 0.1% 98%  
262 0.1% 98%  
263 0.1% 98%  
264 0.2% 98%  
265 0.1% 98%  
266 0.3% 98%  
267 0% 98%  
268 0% 97%  
269 0% 97%  
270 8% 97%  
271 1.0% 89%  
272 0.9% 88%  
273 3% 87%  
274 0.4% 84% Last Result
275 1.2% 84%  
276 0.5% 82%  
277 0.1% 82%  
278 1.0% 82%  
279 0.2% 81%  
280 0.1% 81%  
281 1.4% 81%  
282 0.9% 79%  
283 0.9% 78%  
284 0.3% 77%  
285 2% 77%  
286 0.6% 75%  
287 0.2% 74%  
288 0% 74%  
289 0.2% 74%  
290 0.4% 74%  
291 0.3% 74%  
292 4% 73%  
293 1.2% 69%  
294 0.4% 68%  
295 0.2% 67%  
296 0.5% 67%  
297 0.2% 66%  
298 5% 66%  
299 0.3% 61%  
300 11% 61%  
301 0.7% 49%  
302 1.5% 49%  
303 2% 47%  
304 2% 45%  
305 2% 43% Median
306 0.4% 41%  
307 2% 41%  
308 0.3% 39%  
309 11% 38%  
310 3% 27%  
311 0.3% 24%  
312 2% 23%  
313 2% 22%  
314 0.6% 20%  
315 2% 20%  
316 0.6% 17%  
317 1.5% 17%  
318 0.9% 15%  
319 0.2% 14%  
320 0.1% 14%  
321 0.7% 14%  
322 2% 13%  
323 1.0% 12%  
324 0.6% 11%  
325 0.1% 10%  
326 0.9% 10% Majority
327 2% 9%  
328 0.1% 7%  
329 0.2% 7%  
330 0% 7%  
331 0.8% 7%  
332 0% 6%  
333 3% 6%  
334 0% 3%  
335 0.2% 3%  
336 0.4% 3%  
337 0.5% 3%  
338 0.3% 2%  
339 0.2% 2%  
340 0% 2%  
341 0.4% 2%  
342 0.2% 1.4%  
343 0.1% 1.1%  
344 0% 1.0%  
345 0.3% 1.0%  
346 0.1% 0.7%  
347 0% 0.6%  
348 0% 0.6%  
349 0% 0.6%  
350 0% 0.6%  
351 0.1% 0.6%  
352 0.3% 0.5%  
353 0.1% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
252 0% 100%  
253 0.1% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.8%  
256 0.1% 99.7%  
257 0% 99.7%  
258 0.1% 99.7%  
259 0.1% 99.6%  
260 0.1% 99.5%  
261 0.3% 99.4%  
262 0.7% 99.1%  
263 0.6% 98%  
264 0.1% 98%  
265 0.1% 98%  
266 0.4% 98%  
267 0.4% 97%  
268 1.0% 97%  
269 0.6% 96%  
270 3% 95%  
271 0.1% 93%  
272 0.2% 93%  
273 0.8% 92%  
274 0.9% 92%  
275 1.3% 91%  
276 8% 89%  
277 2% 81%  
278 6% 80%  
279 0.6% 73%  
280 7% 73%  
281 1.5% 66%  
282 0.1% 64%  
283 0.4% 64%  
284 2% 64%  
285 3% 62%  
286 0.5% 59%  
287 0.3% 58%  
288 11% 58% Median
289 0.1% 47%  
290 4% 46%  
291 4% 42%  
292 0.4% 39%  
293 0.1% 38%  
294 2% 38%  
295 0.7% 36%  
296 0.4% 35%  
297 0.7% 35%  
298 1.2% 34%  
299 1.0% 33%  
300 0.6% 32%  
301 0.8% 31%  
302 0.7% 31%  
303 2% 30%  
304 1.0% 27%  
305 4% 26%  
306 0.2% 23%  
307 0.8% 23%  
308 2% 22%  
309 0.3% 20%  
310 0.2% 20%  
311 0.2% 20%  
312 0.4% 19%  
313 0.3% 19%  
314 8% 19%  
315 2% 11%  
316 1.4% 9%  
317 0.1% 7% Last Result
318 0% 7%  
319 0% 7%  
320 0.7% 7%  
321 0.6% 7%  
322 0% 6%  
323 0% 6%  
324 0.1% 6%  
325 1.1% 6%  
326 0.1% 5% Majority
327 0.2% 5%  
328 0.1% 4%  
329 0% 4%  
330 0% 4%  
331 0.1% 4%  
332 3% 4%  
333 0% 1.0%  
334 0.1% 0.9%  
335 0.4% 0.8%  
336 0% 0.4%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.3%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0.1% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0.2% 99.9%  
246 0.1% 99.7%  
247 0.3% 99.7%  
248 0% 99.3%  
249 0.1% 99.3%  
250 0% 99.2%  
251 0% 99.2%  
252 0.1% 99.2%  
253 0.5% 99.0%  
254 0.2% 98.5%  
255 0.3% 98%  
256 0% 98%  
257 0% 98%  
258 0.1% 98%  
259 0.1% 98%  
260 0% 98%  
261 0.1% 98%  
262 0.2% 98%  
263 8% 97%  
264 0.2% 89%  
265 0.4% 89%  
266 0% 89% Last Result
267 0.2% 89%  
268 0.9% 88%  
269 3% 87%  
270 0.6% 84%  
271 0% 83%  
272 0.7% 83%  
273 2% 83%  
274 0.2% 80%  
275 0.2% 80%  
276 0.5% 80%  
277 3% 80%  
278 0.2% 77%  
279 0.7% 77%  
280 0.6% 76%  
281 1.0% 76%  
282 1.1% 75%  
283 0.5% 73%  
284 0% 73%  
285 0.4% 73%  
286 0.2% 72%  
287 1.2% 72%  
288 0.2% 71%  
289 4% 71%  
290 7% 67%  
291 6% 60%  
292 2% 55%  
293 0.6% 53%  
294 1.1% 52%  
295 0.3% 51%  
296 0.7% 51%  
297 2% 50% Median
298 4% 48%  
299 15% 44%  
300 0.4% 29%  
301 0.1% 29%  
302 0.6% 29%  
303 4% 28%  
304 2% 24%  
305 1.4% 22%  
306 2% 21%  
307 2% 19%  
308 0.8% 17%  
309 0.6% 16%  
310 0.9% 15%  
311 1.3% 15%  
312 1.1% 13%  
313 0.4% 12%  
314 0.3% 12%  
315 0.3% 11%  
316 2% 11%  
317 0.1% 9%  
318 0.4% 9%  
319 0.1% 8%  
320 0.1% 8%  
321 0.5% 8%  
322 2% 8%  
323 0.8% 5%  
324 1.0% 5%  
325 0.1% 4%  
326 0.7% 3% Majority
327 0.1% 3%  
328 0.2% 3%  
329 0.4% 2%  
330 0.5% 2%  
331 0.4% 1.5%  
332 0% 1.1%  
333 0.1% 1.1%  
334 0.1% 1.0%  
335 0.1% 0.9%  
336 0% 0.9%  
337 0.1% 0.9%  
338 0% 0.8%  
339 0.2% 0.7%  
340 0% 0.5%  
341 0.5% 0.5%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0.3% 99.7%  
243 0% 99.3%  
244 0% 99.3%  
245 0.1% 99.3%  
246 0.1% 99.2%  
247 0.2% 99.1%  
248 0.2% 99.0%  
249 0.5% 98.8%  
250 0.3% 98%  
251 0.1% 98%  
252 0.1% 98%  
253 0.1% 98%  
254 0% 98%  
255 0% 98%  
256 0.1% 98%  
257 0.3% 98%  
258 8% 97%  
259 0.2% 89%  
260 0.4% 89%  
261 0.1% 89%  
262 0.2% 89% Last Result
263 0.9% 88%  
264 3% 87%  
265 0.4% 84%  
266 0.2% 84%  
267 0.1% 83%  
268 2% 83%  
269 0.8% 81%  
270 0.2% 80%  
271 0.6% 80%  
272 2% 79%  
273 0.3% 77%  
274 0.1% 77%  
275 2% 77%  
276 0.1% 75%  
277 0.1% 75%  
278 1.5% 74%  
279 0.3% 73%  
280 0.3% 73%  
281 0.1% 72%  
282 1.1% 72%  
283 0.3% 71%  
284 4% 71%  
285 7% 67%  
286 6% 60%  
287 2% 55%  
288 0.5% 53%  
289 1.0% 52%  
290 0.3% 51%  
291 0.5% 51%  
292 2% 50% Median
293 4% 48%  
294 14% 44%  
295 1.4% 30%  
296 0.1% 29%  
297 0.3% 29%  
298 4% 29%  
299 2% 24%  
300 1.0% 22%  
301 2% 21%  
302 1.4% 19%  
303 1.0% 17%  
304 0.9% 16%  
305 0.9% 15%  
306 1.3% 14%  
307 0.8% 13%  
308 1.1% 12%  
309 0.6% 11%  
310 0.2% 11%  
311 2% 10%  
312 0.1% 9%  
313 0.4% 9%  
314 0.1% 8%  
315 0.1% 8%  
316 0.2% 8%  
317 3% 8%  
318 0.8% 5%  
319 1.0% 5%  
320 0.1% 4%  
321 0.7% 3%  
322 0.1% 3%  
323 0.2% 3%  
324 0.2% 2%  
325 0.5% 2%  
326 0.3% 2% Majority
327 0.2% 1.3%  
328 0.1% 1.1%  
329 0% 1.0%  
330 0.1% 1.0%  
331 0% 0.9%  
332 0.1% 0.9%  
333 0% 0.7%  
334 0.2% 0.7%  
335 0% 0.6%  
336 0.1% 0.5%  
337 0.3% 0.4%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations