Opinion Poll by ICM Research for The Guardian, 10–19 January 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party |
42.4% |
40.9% |
39.9–41.9% |
39.6–42.2% |
39.4–42.4% |
38.9–42.9% |
Labour Party |
40.0% |
40.9% |
39.9–41.9% |
39.6–42.2% |
39.4–42.4% |
38.9–42.9% |
Liberal Democrats |
7.4% |
7.0% |
6.5–7.5% |
6.3–7.7% |
6.2–7.8% |
6.0–8.1% |
UK Independence Party |
1.8% |
4.0% |
3.6–4.4% |
3.5–4.5% |
3.4–4.6% |
3.2–4.8% |
Scottish National Party |
3.0% |
3.0% |
2.7–3.4% |
2.6–3.5% |
2.5–3.6% |
2.4–3.7% |
Green Party |
1.6% |
3.0% |
2.7–3.4% |
2.6–3.5% |
2.5–3.6% |
2.4–3.7% |
Plaid Cymru |
0.5% |
0.2% |
0.2–0.4% |
0.1–0.4% |
0.1–0.5% |
0.1–0.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats

Confidence Intervals
Conservative Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
266 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
268 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
269 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
270 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
271 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
272 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
273 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
274 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
275 |
0.4% |
99.2% |
|
276 |
0.4% |
98.8% |
|
277 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
278 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
279 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
280 |
2% |
96% |
|
281 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
282 |
3% |
94% |
|
283 |
0.2% |
92% |
|
284 |
2% |
91% |
|
285 |
2% |
89% |
|
286 |
2% |
87% |
|
287 |
0.6% |
86% |
|
288 |
0.3% |
85% |
|
289 |
6% |
85% |
|
290 |
0.5% |
79% |
|
291 |
3% |
78% |
|
292 |
3% |
75% |
|
293 |
3% |
72% |
|
294 |
0.5% |
69% |
|
295 |
0.4% |
68% |
|
296 |
2% |
68% |
|
297 |
6% |
66% |
|
298 |
0.7% |
60% |
|
299 |
7% |
59% |
|
300 |
2% |
52% |
Median |
301 |
0.9% |
50% |
|
302 |
1.1% |
49% |
|
303 |
0.6% |
48% |
|
304 |
1.0% |
47% |
|
305 |
1.4% |
46% |
|
306 |
14% |
45% |
|
307 |
7% |
31% |
|
308 |
2% |
24% |
|
309 |
0.6% |
22% |
|
310 |
0.3% |
21% |
|
311 |
0.7% |
21% |
|
312 |
4% |
20% |
|
313 |
1.4% |
16% |
|
314 |
1.2% |
15% |
|
315 |
0.8% |
13% |
|
316 |
0.9% |
13% |
|
317 |
3% |
12% |
Last Result |
318 |
0.3% |
9% |
|
319 |
0.6% |
9% |
|
320 |
0.5% |
8% |
|
321 |
2% |
8% |
|
322 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
323 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
324 |
2% |
5% |
|
325 |
0% |
3% |
|
326 |
0% |
3% |
Majority |
327 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
328 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
329 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
330 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
331 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
332 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
333 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
334 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
335 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
336 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
337 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
338 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
339 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
340 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
341 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
342 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
244 |
0% |
100% |
|
245 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
246 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
247 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
248 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
249 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
250 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
251 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
252 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
253 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
254 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
255 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
256 |
0% |
97% |
|
257 |
0% |
97% |
|
258 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
259 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
260 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
261 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
262 |
0.8% |
96% |
Last Result |
263 |
1.2% |
95% |
|
264 |
2% |
94% |
|
265 |
2% |
92% |
|
266 |
0.6% |
90% |
|
267 |
0.1% |
89% |
|
268 |
0.2% |
89% |
|
269 |
1.0% |
89% |
|
270 |
3% |
88% |
|
271 |
3% |
85% |
|
272 |
7% |
82% |
|
273 |
0.4% |
75% |
|
274 |
0.6% |
75% |
|
275 |
6% |
74% |
|
276 |
0.7% |
68% |
|
277 |
4% |
68% |
|
278 |
0.2% |
64% |
|
279 |
0.9% |
64% |
|
280 |
4% |
63% |
|
281 |
2% |
59% |
|
282 |
12% |
58% |
Median |
283 |
1.3% |
45% |
|
284 |
0.2% |
44% |
|
285 |
5% |
44% |
|
286 |
0.5% |
38% |
|
287 |
0.9% |
38% |
|
288 |
2% |
37% |
|
289 |
2% |
35% |
|
290 |
3% |
33% |
|
291 |
2% |
31% |
|
292 |
1.0% |
29% |
|
293 |
2% |
28% |
|
294 |
0.2% |
26% |
|
295 |
0.1% |
26% |
|
296 |
0.2% |
25% |
|
297 |
0.9% |
25% |
|
298 |
2% |
24% |
|
299 |
5% |
22% |
|
300 |
2% |
17% |
|
301 |
3% |
15% |
|
302 |
0.6% |
13% |
|
303 |
0.2% |
12% |
|
304 |
0.8% |
12% |
|
305 |
0% |
11% |
|
306 |
1.3% |
11% |
|
307 |
2% |
10% |
|
308 |
1.0% |
8% |
|
309 |
3% |
7% |
|
310 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
311 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
312 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
313 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
314 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
315 |
0% |
1.3% |
|
316 |
0.5% |
1.3% |
|
317 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
318 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
319 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
320 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
321 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
322 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
323 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
324 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
325 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
326 |
0% |
0.1% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
328 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
5 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
6 |
0.6% |
99.5% |
|
7 |
2% |
98.9% |
|
8 |
2% |
97% |
|
9 |
11% |
95% |
|
10 |
6% |
84% |
|
11 |
15% |
78% |
|
12 |
12% |
63% |
Last Result |
13 |
21% |
51% |
Median |
14 |
9% |
30% |
|
15 |
12% |
21% |
|
16 |
6% |
9% |
|
17 |
2% |
3% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
19 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
UK Independence Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
9% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
91% |
91% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
0.7% |
99.6% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
9 |
2% |
98.7% |
|
10 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
11 |
0% |
97% |
|
12 |
0% |
97% |
|
13 |
2% |
97% |
|
14 |
2% |
94% |
|
15 |
0% |
93% |
|
16 |
3% |
93% |
|
17 |
0.5% |
90% |
|
18 |
0.9% |
90% |
|
19 |
0.2% |
89% |
|
20 |
1.4% |
89% |
|
21 |
0.7% |
87% |
|
22 |
1.0% |
86% |
|
23 |
3% |
85% |
|
24 |
2% |
83% |
|
25 |
3% |
81% |
|
26 |
3% |
78% |
|
27 |
3% |
75% |
|
28 |
3% |
72% |
|
29 |
16% |
69% |
|
30 |
2% |
54% |
|
31 |
1.0% |
52% |
|
32 |
0.2% |
51% |
|
33 |
1.1% |
51% |
Median |
34 |
2% |
50% |
|
35 |
2% |
48% |
Last Result |
36 |
5% |
46% |
|
37 |
2% |
41% |
|
38 |
0.2% |
39% |
|
39 |
10% |
38% |
|
40 |
8% |
29% |
|
41 |
1.1% |
20% |
|
42 |
8% |
19% |
|
43 |
0.3% |
11% |
|
44 |
1.4% |
11% |
|
45 |
0.4% |
10% |
|
46 |
5% |
9% |
|
47 |
1.1% |
5% |
|
48 |
1.5% |
3% |
|
49 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
50 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
51 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
52 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
53 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
54 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
Green Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Plaid Cymru
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
77% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
15% |
23% |
|
2 |
6% |
8% |
|
3 |
2% |
2% |
|
4 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
356 |
335 |
72% |
311–352 |
309–357 |
305–363 |
296–366 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party |
352 |
335 |
71% |
311–351 |
309–357 |
305–363 |
296–366 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
313 |
330 |
54% |
313–346 |
306–350 |
302–352 |
296–358 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party |
309 |
329 |
53% |
313–345 |
306–350 |
302–352 |
296–358 |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats |
329 |
314 |
14% |
295–329 |
294–337 |
290–340 |
286–344 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
301 |
316 |
28% |
301–335 |
293–336 |
290–340 |
286–344 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party |
297 |
316 |
27% |
301–334 |
293–335 |
290–340 |
286–344 |
Conservative Party |
317 |
300 |
3% |
284–317 |
280–324 |
278–328 |
272–334 |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru |
321 |
302 |
3% |
285–317 |
280–324 |
278–328 |
272–334 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats |
274 |
295 |
2% |
278–319 |
273–321 |
267–325 |
264–335 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru |
278 |
295 |
2% |
279–319 |
273–321 |
267–325 |
264–335 |
Labour Party |
262 |
282 |
0.1% |
265–306 |
263–309 |
254–312 |
254–319 |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru |
266 |
282 |
0.1% |
267–307 |
263–309 |
254–312 |
254–319 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
290 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
291 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
292 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
293 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
294 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
295 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
296 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
297 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
298 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
299 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
300 |
0.3% |
99.2% |
|
301 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
302 |
0.6% |
98.7% |
|
303 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
304 |
0% |
98% |
|
305 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
306 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
307 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
308 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
309 |
4% |
96% |
|
310 |
2% |
93% |
|
311 |
0.9% |
91% |
|
312 |
0.4% |
90% |
|
313 |
0.6% |
89% |
|
314 |
0.6% |
89% |
|
315 |
2% |
88% |
|
316 |
0.4% |
86% |
|
317 |
1.0% |
86% |
|
318 |
0.4% |
85% |
|
319 |
0.3% |
84% |
|
320 |
2% |
84% |
|
321 |
4% |
82% |
|
322 |
4% |
78% |
|
323 |
0.8% |
74% |
|
324 |
0.1% |
73% |
|
325 |
0.8% |
73% |
|
326 |
1.1% |
72% |
Majority |
327 |
0.4% |
71% |
|
328 |
2% |
70% |
|
329 |
0.9% |
68% |
|
330 |
3% |
67% |
|
331 |
6% |
64% |
|
332 |
0.4% |
58% |
|
333 |
1.4% |
57% |
Median |
334 |
0.5% |
56% |
|
335 |
15% |
55% |
|
336 |
0.5% |
41% |
|
337 |
1.0% |
40% |
|
338 |
4% |
39% |
|
339 |
0.9% |
35% |
|
340 |
0.8% |
34% |
|
341 |
1.5% |
33% |
|
342 |
2% |
32% |
|
343 |
4% |
30% |
|
344 |
2% |
26% |
|
345 |
1.2% |
25% |
|
346 |
0.6% |
23% |
|
347 |
7% |
23% |
|
348 |
0.4% |
16% |
|
349 |
2% |
15% |
|
350 |
2% |
13% |
|
351 |
0.9% |
11% |
|
352 |
2% |
10% |
|
353 |
0.9% |
8% |
|
354 |
1.3% |
7% |
|
355 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
356 |
0.3% |
6% |
Last Result |
357 |
0.7% |
6% |
|
358 |
1.2% |
5% |
|
359 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
360 |
0% |
3% |
|
361 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
362 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
363 |
2% |
3% |
|
364 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
|
365 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
366 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
367 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
368 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
369 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
370 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
371 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
372 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
373 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
374 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
375 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
376 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
377 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
290 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
291 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
292 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
293 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
294 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
295 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
296 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
297 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
298 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
299 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
300 |
0.3% |
99.2% |
|
301 |
0.6% |
98.8% |
|
302 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
303 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
304 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
305 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
306 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
307 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
308 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
309 |
5% |
96% |
|
310 |
0.4% |
91% |
|
311 |
0.5% |
90% |
|
312 |
0.4% |
90% |
|
313 |
0.6% |
89% |
|
314 |
2% |
89% |
|
315 |
2% |
87% |
|
316 |
0.1% |
85% |
|
317 |
0.8% |
85% |
|
318 |
0.1% |
84% |
|
319 |
1.5% |
84% |
|
320 |
2% |
82% |
|
321 |
3% |
80% |
|
322 |
4% |
77% |
|
323 |
0.8% |
74% |
|
324 |
0.4% |
73% |
|
325 |
1.5% |
72% |
|
326 |
1.1% |
71% |
Majority |
327 |
0.6% |
70% |
|
328 |
2% |
69% |
|
329 |
2% |
67% |
|
330 |
2% |
66% |
|
331 |
6% |
63% |
|
332 |
1.2% |
58% |
|
333 |
0.7% |
56% |
Median |
334 |
0.9% |
56% |
|
335 |
14% |
55% |
|
336 |
1.1% |
41% |
|
337 |
0.4% |
40% |
|
338 |
6% |
39% |
|
339 |
0.2% |
34% |
|
340 |
0.3% |
33% |
|
341 |
1.5% |
33% |
|
342 |
3% |
32% |
|
343 |
4% |
29% |
|
344 |
0.7% |
25% |
|
345 |
1.2% |
24% |
|
346 |
0.6% |
23% |
|
347 |
7% |
23% |
|
348 |
1.1% |
16% |
|
349 |
2% |
14% |
|
350 |
1.0% |
12% |
|
351 |
2% |
11% |
|
352 |
2% |
10% |
Last Result |
353 |
0.5% |
7% |
|
354 |
1.1% |
7% |
|
355 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
356 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
357 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
358 |
1.1% |
5% |
|
359 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
360 |
0% |
3% |
|
361 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
362 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
363 |
2% |
3% |
|
364 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
365 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
366 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
367 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
368 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
369 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
370 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
371 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
372 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
373 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
374 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
375 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
376 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
291 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
292 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
293 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
294 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
295 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
296 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
297 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
298 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
299 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
300 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
301 |
1.0% |
99.2% |
|
302 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
303 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
304 |
0% |
97% |
|
305 |
0% |
97% |
|
306 |
2% |
97% |
|
307 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
308 |
0.5% |
94% |
|
309 |
1.2% |
94% |
|
310 |
0.9% |
93% |
|
311 |
0.6% |
92% |
|
312 |
0.3% |
91% |
|
313 |
3% |
91% |
Last Result |
314 |
0.9% |
88% |
|
315 |
0.8% |
87% |
|
316 |
1.2% |
87% |
|
317 |
1.4% |
85% |
|
318 |
4% |
84% |
|
319 |
0.9% |
80% |
|
320 |
0.5% |
79% |
|
321 |
0.5% |
79% |
|
322 |
0.6% |
78% |
|
323 |
9% |
78% |
|
324 |
14% |
69% |
|
325 |
1.1% |
55% |
|
326 |
0.9% |
54% |
Majority |
327 |
0.7% |
53% |
|
328 |
1.1% |
52% |
Median |
329 |
1.1% |
51% |
|
330 |
3% |
50% |
|
331 |
7% |
48% |
|
332 |
0.6% |
41% |
|
333 |
6% |
40% |
|
334 |
0.8% |
34% |
|
335 |
1.2% |
33% |
|
336 |
0.8% |
32% |
|
337 |
3% |
31% |
|
338 |
3% |
28% |
|
339 |
3% |
25% |
|
340 |
0.8% |
22% |
|
341 |
6% |
21% |
|
342 |
0.5% |
16% |
|
343 |
0.6% |
15% |
|
344 |
1.4% |
14% |
|
345 |
2% |
13% |
|
346 |
3% |
11% |
|
347 |
0.2% |
9% |
|
348 |
3% |
8% |
|
349 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
350 |
1.3% |
6% |
|
351 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
352 |
1.5% |
4% |
|
353 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
354 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
355 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
356 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
357 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
358 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
359 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
360 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
361 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
362 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
363 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
364 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
365 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
291 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
292 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
293 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
294 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
295 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
296 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
297 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
298 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
299 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
300 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
301 |
1.0% |
99.2% |
|
302 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
303 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
304 |
0% |
97% |
|
305 |
0% |
97% |
|
306 |
3% |
97% |
|
307 |
0.1% |
94% |
|
308 |
0.5% |
94% |
|
309 |
1.5% |
94% |
Last Result |
310 |
0.6% |
92% |
|
311 |
0.6% |
92% |
|
312 |
0.3% |
91% |
|
313 |
3% |
91% |
|
314 |
0.9% |
88% |
|
315 |
0.7% |
87% |
|
316 |
1.5% |
86% |
|
317 |
3% |
85% |
|
318 |
2% |
82% |
|
319 |
0.9% |
80% |
|
320 |
0.4% |
79% |
|
321 |
1.3% |
78% |
|
322 |
0.9% |
77% |
|
323 |
8% |
76% |
|
324 |
13% |
68% |
|
325 |
2% |
55% |
|
326 |
1.2% |
53% |
Majority |
327 |
0.8% |
52% |
|
328 |
0.8% |
51% |
Median |
329 |
0.8% |
50% |
|
330 |
2% |
50% |
|
331 |
7% |
47% |
|
332 |
0.5% |
40% |
|
333 |
6% |
40% |
|
334 |
1.0% |
34% |
|
335 |
2% |
33% |
|
336 |
1.4% |
31% |
|
337 |
4% |
30% |
|
338 |
3% |
25% |
|
339 |
0.8% |
22% |
|
340 |
0.5% |
22% |
|
341 |
6% |
21% |
|
342 |
0.5% |
15% |
|
343 |
1.3% |
15% |
|
344 |
2% |
14% |
|
345 |
3% |
12% |
|
346 |
0.2% |
9% |
|
347 |
2% |
9% |
|
348 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
349 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
350 |
1.5% |
5% |
|
351 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
352 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
353 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
354 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
|
355 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
356 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
357 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
358 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
359 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
360 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
361 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
362 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
363 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
364 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
365 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
281 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
282 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
283 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
284 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
285 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
286 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
287 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
288 |
0.5% |
99.2% |
|
289 |
1.0% |
98.7% |
|
290 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
291 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
292 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
293 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
294 |
2% |
96% |
|
295 |
5% |
94% |
|
296 |
0.8% |
89% |
|
297 |
0.8% |
88% |
|
298 |
0.2% |
88% |
|
299 |
0.8% |
87% |
|
300 |
2% |
87% |
|
301 |
2% |
85% |
|
302 |
2% |
83% |
|
303 |
7% |
81% |
|
304 |
1.1% |
74% |
|
305 |
4% |
73% |
|
306 |
2% |
69% |
|
307 |
1.2% |
67% |
|
308 |
2% |
66% |
|
309 |
4% |
64% |
|
310 |
2% |
60% |
|
311 |
0.2% |
58% |
|
312 |
0.8% |
57% |
|
313 |
2% |
57% |
Median |
314 |
7% |
55% |
|
315 |
2% |
48% |
|
316 |
0.4% |
46% |
|
317 |
0.8% |
46% |
|
318 |
8% |
45% |
|
319 |
13% |
37% |
|
320 |
2% |
25% |
|
321 |
1.0% |
23% |
|
322 |
0.1% |
22% |
|
323 |
5% |
22% |
|
324 |
0.8% |
17% |
|
325 |
2% |
16% |
|
326 |
0.8% |
14% |
Majority |
327 |
0.3% |
13% |
|
328 |
0.9% |
13% |
|
329 |
3% |
12% |
Last Result |
330 |
2% |
9% |
|
331 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
332 |
0.5% |
7% |
|
333 |
0.1% |
6% |
|
334 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
335 |
0.1% |
6% |
|
336 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
337 |
3% |
6% |
|
338 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
340 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
341 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
342 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
343 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
344 |
0.9% |
1.2% |
|
345 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
346 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
347 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
348 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
349 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
350 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
351 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
352 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
353 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
280 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
281 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
282 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
283 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
284 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
285 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
286 |
0.9% |
99.7% |
|
287 |
0.4% |
98.8% |
|
288 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
289 |
0% |
98% |
|
290 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
291 |
0% |
97% |
|
292 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
293 |
2% |
97% |
|
294 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
295 |
0.1% |
94% |
|
296 |
0.2% |
94% |
|
297 |
0.1% |
94% |
|
298 |
0.5% |
94% |
|
299 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
300 |
2% |
93% |
|
301 |
3% |
91% |
Last Result |
302 |
1.0% |
88% |
|
303 |
0.3% |
87% |
|
304 |
0.3% |
87% |
|
305 |
3% |
87% |
|
306 |
0.7% |
84% |
|
307 |
5% |
83% |
|
308 |
0.3% |
79% |
|
309 |
1.0% |
78% |
|
310 |
2% |
77% |
|
311 |
13% |
75% |
|
312 |
7% |
63% |
|
313 |
2% |
56% |
|
314 |
0.7% |
55% |
|
315 |
1.3% |
54% |
Median |
316 |
7% |
53% |
|
317 |
3% |
46% |
|
318 |
0.8% |
43% |
|
319 |
0.2% |
43% |
|
320 |
2% |
42% |
|
321 |
4% |
40% |
|
322 |
2% |
36% |
|
323 |
1.3% |
34% |
|
324 |
2% |
33% |
|
325 |
3% |
31% |
|
326 |
2% |
28% |
Majority |
327 |
7% |
26% |
|
328 |
2% |
19% |
|
329 |
2% |
17% |
|
330 |
1.4% |
15% |
|
331 |
1.0% |
14% |
|
332 |
0.3% |
13% |
|
333 |
0.9% |
12% |
|
334 |
0.6% |
12% |
|
335 |
5% |
11% |
|
336 |
1.4% |
6% |
|
337 |
1.2% |
5% |
|
338 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
339 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
340 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
341 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
342 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
|
343 |
0.4% |
1.0% |
|
344 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
345 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
346 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
347 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
348 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
349 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
350 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
351 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
280 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
281 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
282 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
283 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
284 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
285 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
286 |
0.9% |
99.6% |
|
287 |
0.4% |
98.7% |
|
288 |
0% |
98% |
|
289 |
0% |
98% |
|
290 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
291 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
292 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
293 |
2% |
97% |
|
294 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
295 |
0.2% |
94% |
|
296 |
0.1% |
94% |
|
297 |
0.1% |
94% |
Last Result |
298 |
0.8% |
94% |
|
299 |
0.2% |
93% |
|
300 |
2% |
93% |
|
301 |
4% |
91% |
|
302 |
0.1% |
87% |
|
303 |
0.5% |
87% |
|
304 |
0.8% |
87% |
|
305 |
3% |
86% |
|
306 |
0.6% |
83% |
|
307 |
4% |
82% |
|
308 |
0.3% |
78% |
|
309 |
0.4% |
77% |
|
310 |
2% |
77% |
|
311 |
13% |
75% |
|
312 |
7% |
62% |
|
313 |
2% |
56% |
|
314 |
0.3% |
54% |
|
315 |
2% |
54% |
Median |
316 |
7% |
52% |
|
317 |
2% |
45% |
|
318 |
1.1% |
43% |
|
319 |
0.2% |
42% |
|
320 |
1.4% |
42% |
|
321 |
5% |
40% |
|
322 |
2% |
35% |
|
323 |
0.4% |
33% |
|
324 |
3% |
33% |
|
325 |
3% |
30% |
|
326 |
2% |
27% |
Majority |
327 |
7% |
25% |
|
328 |
0.8% |
18% |
|
329 |
3% |
17% |
|
330 |
0.5% |
14% |
|
331 |
0.7% |
13% |
|
332 |
0.5% |
13% |
|
333 |
0.9% |
12% |
|
334 |
4% |
11% |
|
335 |
2% |
7% |
|
336 |
1.3% |
5% |
|
337 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
338 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
339 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
340 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
341 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
342 |
0.4% |
1.0% |
|
343 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
344 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
345 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
346 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
347 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
348 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
349 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
350 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
351 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
266 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
268 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
269 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
270 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
271 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
272 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
273 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
274 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
275 |
0.4% |
99.2% |
|
276 |
0.4% |
98.8% |
|
277 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
278 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
279 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
280 |
2% |
96% |
|
281 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
282 |
3% |
94% |
|
283 |
0.2% |
92% |
|
284 |
2% |
91% |
|
285 |
2% |
89% |
|
286 |
2% |
87% |
|
287 |
0.6% |
86% |
|
288 |
0.3% |
85% |
|
289 |
6% |
85% |
|
290 |
0.5% |
79% |
|
291 |
3% |
78% |
|
292 |
3% |
75% |
|
293 |
3% |
72% |
|
294 |
0.5% |
69% |
|
295 |
0.4% |
68% |
|
296 |
2% |
68% |
|
297 |
6% |
66% |
|
298 |
0.7% |
60% |
|
299 |
7% |
59% |
|
300 |
2% |
52% |
Median |
301 |
0.9% |
50% |
|
302 |
1.1% |
49% |
|
303 |
0.6% |
48% |
|
304 |
1.0% |
47% |
|
305 |
1.4% |
46% |
|
306 |
14% |
45% |
|
307 |
7% |
31% |
|
308 |
2% |
24% |
|
309 |
0.6% |
22% |
|
310 |
0.3% |
21% |
|
311 |
0.7% |
21% |
|
312 |
4% |
20% |
|
313 |
1.4% |
16% |
|
314 |
1.2% |
15% |
|
315 |
0.8% |
13% |
|
316 |
0.9% |
13% |
|
317 |
3% |
12% |
Last Result |
318 |
0.3% |
9% |
|
319 |
0.6% |
9% |
|
320 |
0.5% |
8% |
|
321 |
2% |
8% |
|
322 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
323 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
324 |
2% |
5% |
|
325 |
0% |
3% |
|
326 |
0% |
3% |
Majority |
327 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
328 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
329 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
330 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
331 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
332 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
333 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
334 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
335 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
336 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
337 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
338 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
339 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
340 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
341 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
342 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
266 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
268 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
269 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
270 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
271 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
272 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
273 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
274 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
275 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
276 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
|
277 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
|
278 |
2% |
98% |
|
279 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
280 |
2% |
97% |
|
281 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
282 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
283 |
2% |
94% |
|
284 |
0.1% |
91% |
|
285 |
3% |
91% |
|
286 |
2% |
89% |
|
287 |
1.2% |
86% |
|
288 |
0.3% |
85% |
|
289 |
6% |
85% |
|
290 |
0.5% |
79% |
|
291 |
0.5% |
78% |
|
292 |
3% |
78% |
|
293 |
4% |
75% |
|
294 |
1.4% |
70% |
|
295 |
0.4% |
69% |
|
296 |
2% |
68% |
|
297 |
7% |
67% |
|
298 |
0.5% |
60% |
|
299 |
7% |
60% |
|
300 |
2% |
53% |
Median |
301 |
0.7% |
51% |
|
302 |
1.1% |
50% |
|
303 |
0.4% |
49% |
|
304 |
1.3% |
49% |
|
305 |
2% |
47% |
|
306 |
14% |
45% |
|
307 |
7% |
32% |
|
308 |
2% |
25% |
|
309 |
1.2% |
23% |
|
310 |
0.4% |
22% |
|
311 |
0.4% |
21% |
|
312 |
3% |
21% |
|
313 |
3% |
18% |
|
314 |
2% |
15% |
|
315 |
0.7% |
14% |
|
316 |
1.0% |
13% |
|
317 |
3% |
12% |
|
318 |
0.3% |
9% |
|
319 |
0.7% |
9% |
|
320 |
0.2% |
8% |
|
321 |
2% |
8% |
Last Result |
322 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
323 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
324 |
3% |
6% |
|
325 |
0% |
3% |
|
326 |
0.1% |
3% |
Majority |
327 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
328 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
329 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
330 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
331 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
332 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
333 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
334 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
335 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
336 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
337 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
338 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
339 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
340 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
341 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
342 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
257 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
258 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
259 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
260 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
261 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
262 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
263 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
264 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
265 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
266 |
0.3% |
99.3% |
|
267 |
2% |
99.0% |
|
268 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
269 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
270 |
0% |
97% |
|
271 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
272 |
1.2% |
96% |
|
273 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
274 |
0.2% |
95% |
Last Result |
275 |
0.4% |
94% |
|
276 |
1.3% |
94% |
|
277 |
0.9% |
93% |
|
278 |
2% |
92% |
|
279 |
1.1% |
90% |
|
280 |
2% |
89% |
|
281 |
2% |
87% |
|
282 |
0.4% |
85% |
|
283 |
7% |
84% |
|
284 |
0.7% |
77% |
|
285 |
1.2% |
77% |
|
286 |
2% |
75% |
|
287 |
4% |
74% |
|
288 |
1.1% |
70% |
|
289 |
2% |
69% |
|
290 |
0.7% |
67% |
|
291 |
1.0% |
66% |
|
292 |
4% |
65% |
|
293 |
1.0% |
61% |
|
294 |
0.9% |
60% |
|
295 |
15% |
59% |
Median |
296 |
0.5% |
45% |
|
297 |
1.0% |
44% |
|
298 |
0.8% |
43% |
|
299 |
6% |
42% |
|
300 |
3% |
36% |
|
301 |
1.2% |
33% |
|
302 |
2% |
32% |
|
303 |
0.6% |
30% |
|
304 |
0.9% |
29% |
|
305 |
0.9% |
28% |
|
306 |
0.2% |
27% |
|
307 |
0.7% |
27% |
|
308 |
3% |
26% |
|
309 |
4% |
23% |
|
310 |
3% |
19% |
|
311 |
0.2% |
16% |
|
312 |
0.6% |
16% |
|
313 |
1.0% |
15% |
|
314 |
0.4% |
14% |
|
315 |
2% |
14% |
|
316 |
0.6% |
12% |
|
317 |
0.6% |
11% |
|
318 |
0.5% |
11% |
|
319 |
0.5% |
10% |
|
320 |
3% |
10% |
|
321 |
3% |
7% |
|
322 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
323 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
324 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
325 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
326 |
0.1% |
2% |
Majority |
327 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
328 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
329 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
330 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
331 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
332 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
333 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
334 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
335 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
336 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
337 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
338 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
340 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
341 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
342 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
343 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
257 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
258 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
259 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
260 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
261 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
262 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
263 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
264 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
265 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
266 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
267 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
268 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
269 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
270 |
0% |
97% |
|
271 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
272 |
1.1% |
96% |
|
273 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
274 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
275 |
0.2% |
94% |
|
276 |
1.1% |
94% |
|
277 |
0.5% |
93% |
|
278 |
2% |
93% |
Last Result |
279 |
1.5% |
91% |
|
280 |
1.1% |
89% |
|
281 |
2% |
88% |
|
282 |
1.2% |
86% |
|
283 |
7% |
84% |
|
284 |
0.7% |
77% |
|
285 |
1.2% |
77% |
|
286 |
0.6% |
76% |
|
287 |
4% |
75% |
|
288 |
2% |
71% |
|
289 |
2% |
69% |
|
290 |
0.2% |
67% |
|
291 |
0.3% |
67% |
|
292 |
5% |
66% |
|
293 |
0.6% |
61% |
|
294 |
0.9% |
61% |
|
295 |
14% |
60% |
Median |
296 |
0.9% |
45% |
|
297 |
0.5% |
44% |
|
298 |
1.1% |
44% |
|
299 |
6% |
43% |
|
300 |
2% |
37% |
|
301 |
1.4% |
34% |
|
302 |
2% |
33% |
|
303 |
0.4% |
31% |
|
304 |
1.2% |
30% |
|
305 |
1.4% |
29% |
|
306 |
0.2% |
28% |
|
307 |
1.0% |
27% |
|
308 |
3% |
27% |
|
309 |
3% |
24% |
|
310 |
3% |
21% |
|
311 |
1.4% |
18% |
|
312 |
0.4% |
16% |
|
313 |
0.8% |
16% |
|
314 |
0.1% |
15% |
|
315 |
2% |
15% |
|
316 |
2% |
13% |
|
317 |
0.8% |
12% |
|
318 |
0.5% |
11% |
|
319 |
0.4% |
10% |
|
320 |
0.3% |
10% |
|
321 |
6% |
10% |
|
322 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
323 |
0% |
4% |
|
324 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
325 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
326 |
0.1% |
2% |
Majority |
327 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
328 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
329 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
330 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
331 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
332 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
333 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
334 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
335 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
336 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
337 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
338 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
340 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
341 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
342 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
343 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
244 |
0% |
100% |
|
245 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
246 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
247 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
248 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
249 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
250 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
251 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
252 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
253 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
254 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
255 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
256 |
0% |
97% |
|
257 |
0% |
97% |
|
258 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
259 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
260 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
261 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
262 |
0.8% |
96% |
Last Result |
263 |
1.2% |
95% |
|
264 |
2% |
94% |
|
265 |
2% |
92% |
|
266 |
0.6% |
90% |
|
267 |
0.1% |
89% |
|
268 |
0.2% |
89% |
|
269 |
1.0% |
89% |
|
270 |
3% |
88% |
|
271 |
3% |
85% |
|
272 |
7% |
82% |
|
273 |
0.4% |
75% |
|
274 |
0.6% |
75% |
|
275 |
6% |
74% |
|
276 |
0.7% |
68% |
|
277 |
4% |
68% |
|
278 |
0.2% |
64% |
|
279 |
0.9% |
64% |
|
280 |
4% |
63% |
|
281 |
2% |
59% |
|
282 |
12% |
58% |
Median |
283 |
1.3% |
45% |
|
284 |
0.2% |
44% |
|
285 |
5% |
44% |
|
286 |
0.5% |
38% |
|
287 |
0.9% |
38% |
|
288 |
2% |
37% |
|
289 |
2% |
35% |
|
290 |
3% |
33% |
|
291 |
2% |
31% |
|
292 |
1.0% |
29% |
|
293 |
2% |
28% |
|
294 |
0.2% |
26% |
|
295 |
0.1% |
26% |
|
296 |
0.2% |
25% |
|
297 |
0.9% |
25% |
|
298 |
2% |
24% |
|
299 |
5% |
22% |
|
300 |
2% |
17% |
|
301 |
3% |
15% |
|
302 |
0.6% |
13% |
|
303 |
0.2% |
12% |
|
304 |
0.8% |
12% |
|
305 |
0% |
11% |
|
306 |
1.3% |
11% |
|
307 |
2% |
10% |
|
308 |
1.0% |
8% |
|
309 |
3% |
7% |
|
310 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
311 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
312 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
313 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
314 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
315 |
0% |
1.3% |
|
316 |
0.5% |
1.3% |
|
317 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
318 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
319 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
320 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
321 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
322 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
323 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
324 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
325 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
326 |
0% |
0.1% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
328 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
245 |
0% |
100% |
|
246 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
247 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
248 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
249 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
250 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
251 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
252 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
253 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
254 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
255 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
256 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
257 |
0% |
97% |
|
258 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
259 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
260 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
261 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
262 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
263 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
264 |
2% |
95% |
|
265 |
1.3% |
93% |
|
266 |
1.2% |
91% |
Last Result |
267 |
0.8% |
90% |
|
268 |
0.1% |
89% |
|
269 |
0.9% |
89% |
|
270 |
3% |
88% |
|
271 |
3% |
86% |
|
272 |
7% |
83% |
|
273 |
0.4% |
75% |
|
274 |
0.5% |
75% |
|
275 |
5% |
74% |
|
276 |
1.3% |
69% |
|
277 |
4% |
68% |
|
278 |
0.1% |
64% |
|
279 |
1.0% |
64% |
|
280 |
3% |
63% |
|
281 |
1.0% |
60% |
|
282 |
13% |
59% |
Median |
283 |
0.8% |
46% |
|
284 |
1.1% |
45% |
|
285 |
5% |
44% |
|
286 |
0.4% |
38% |
|
287 |
0.4% |
38% |
|
288 |
2% |
38% |
|
289 |
1.2% |
36% |
|
290 |
2% |
34% |
|
291 |
2% |
33% |
|
292 |
1.5% |
31% |
|
293 |
3% |
29% |
|
294 |
0.6% |
26% |
|
295 |
0.1% |
26% |
|
296 |
0.2% |
26% |
|
297 |
0.1% |
25% |
|
298 |
0.5% |
25% |
|
299 |
6% |
25% |
|
300 |
3% |
18% |
|
301 |
2% |
16% |
|
302 |
0.9% |
14% |
|
303 |
0.6% |
13% |
|
304 |
0.8% |
12% |
|
305 |
0.1% |
11% |
|
306 |
0.2% |
11% |
|
307 |
1.2% |
11% |
|
308 |
3% |
10% |
|
309 |
3% |
7% |
|
310 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
311 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
312 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
313 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
314 |
0% |
2% |
|
315 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
316 |
0.5% |
1.3% |
|
317 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
318 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
319 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
320 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
321 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
322 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
323 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
324 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
325 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
326 |
0% |
0.1% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
328 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: ICM Research
- Commissioner(s): The Guardian
- Fieldwork period: 10–19 January 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 4117
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.75%