Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 28–29 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 42.0% 40.5–43.6% 40.0–44.0% 39.6–44.4% 38.9–45.1%
Labour Party 40.0% 42.0% 40.5–43.6% 40.0–44.0% 39.6–44.4% 38.9–45.1%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.2% 4.6–7.7%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.4% 2.9–4.1% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.4% 2.4–4.7%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.3%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.2–3.0%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 302 282–326 274–333 272–339 265–345
Labour Party 262 277 256–300 248–308 246–311 238–319
Liberal Democrats 12 4 1–8 0–11 0–13 0–14
Scottish National Party 35 44 30–54 22–55 14–55 8–56
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 4 4 1–5 1–5 1–5 0–5

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
257 0% 100%  
258 0.1% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.8%  
262 0.1% 99.8%  
263 0.1% 99.7%  
264 0% 99.6%  
265 0.2% 99.5%  
266 0.2% 99.4%  
267 0.1% 99.2%  
268 0.1% 99.1%  
269 0.2% 99.0%  
270 0.5% 98.8%  
271 0.5% 98%  
272 0.4% 98%  
273 1.2% 97%  
274 1.4% 96%  
275 0.4% 95%  
276 0.4% 94%  
277 0.7% 94%  
278 0.4% 93%  
279 0.3% 93%  
280 0.2% 93%  
281 2% 93%  
282 2% 91%  
283 3% 89%  
284 4% 86%  
285 8% 82%  
286 0.1% 74%  
287 2% 74%  
288 0.5% 72%  
289 0.6% 71%  
290 0.3% 71%  
291 0.1% 71%  
292 3% 70%  
293 1.4% 68%  
294 0.5% 66%  
295 2% 66%  
296 0.7% 64%  
297 2% 63%  
298 0.2% 61%  
299 7% 61%  
300 0.4% 54%  
301 0.3% 53%  
302 3% 53% Median
303 0.1% 50%  
304 6% 50%  
305 0.8% 44%  
306 8% 43%  
307 0.6% 35%  
308 2% 35%  
309 0% 33%  
310 0.4% 33%  
311 3% 33%  
312 0.5% 29%  
313 0.7% 29%  
314 0% 28%  
315 4% 28%  
316 1.4% 25%  
317 0.7% 23% Last Result
318 2% 23%  
319 2% 21%  
320 0.8% 18%  
321 1.1% 18%  
322 2% 17%  
323 1.0% 15%  
324 2% 14%  
325 0.1% 12%  
326 3% 12% Majority
327 1.2% 9%  
328 0.3% 7%  
329 1.1% 7%  
330 0.3% 6%  
331 0.2% 6%  
332 0.4% 6%  
333 1.1% 5%  
334 0.3% 4%  
335 0.1% 4%  
336 0.3% 4%  
337 0.1% 4%  
338 0.1% 3%  
339 1.0% 3%  
340 0.3% 2%  
341 1.1% 2%  
342 0.2% 0.9%  
343 0% 0.6%  
344 0% 0.6%  
345 0.3% 0.6%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0.1% 99.9%  
238 0.5% 99.8%  
239 0.1% 99.3%  
240 0.1% 99.3%  
241 0.3% 99.1%  
242 0.2% 98.8%  
243 0.8% 98.6%  
244 0% 98%  
245 0.1% 98%  
246 0.3% 98%  
247 0.9% 97%  
248 3% 97%  
249 0.5% 93%  
250 0.8% 93%  
251 0.2% 92%  
252 1.0% 92%  
253 0.1% 91%  
254 0.3% 91%  
255 0.4% 91%  
256 0.4% 90%  
257 3% 90%  
258 0.8% 86%  
259 0.8% 85%  
260 5% 85%  
261 0.3% 80%  
262 0.7% 80% Last Result
263 0.2% 79%  
264 0.1% 79%  
265 2% 79%  
266 1.3% 77%  
267 2% 76%  
268 1.1% 74%  
269 5% 73%  
270 0.2% 68%  
271 0.1% 68%  
272 0.6% 68%  
273 2% 67%  
274 0.1% 65%  
275 3% 65%  
276 9% 62%  
277 5% 53% Median
278 3% 49%  
279 1.2% 45%  
280 0.8% 44%  
281 0.4% 43%  
282 2% 43%  
283 0.1% 41%  
284 0.2% 41%  
285 1.5% 41%  
286 0.4% 39%  
287 5% 39%  
288 1.0% 33%  
289 3% 32%  
290 0.4% 30%  
291 0.6% 29%  
292 0.2% 29%  
293 0.3% 28%  
294 5% 28%  
295 2% 23%  
296 8% 21%  
297 2% 13%  
298 0.8% 12%  
299 0.5% 11%  
300 1.1% 10%  
301 0.1% 9%  
302 0.6% 9%  
303 0.2% 8%  
304 1.2% 8%  
305 0.3% 7%  
306 0.1% 7%  
307 0.3% 7%  
308 3% 6%  
309 0.3% 3%  
310 0% 3%  
311 0.9% 3%  
312 0.2% 2%  
313 0% 2%  
314 0.1% 2%  
315 0.1% 2%  
316 0.1% 1.4%  
317 0.2% 1.3%  
318 0% 1.1%  
319 0.8% 1.1%  
320 0% 0.3%  
321 0% 0.3%  
322 0% 0.3%  
323 0% 0.3%  
324 0% 0.3%  
325 0% 0.3%  
326 0.1% 0.2% Majority
327 0.1% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 7% 93%  
2 7% 86%  
3 25% 79%  
4 12% 55% Median
5 19% 43%  
6 5% 24%  
7 6% 19%  
8 5% 14%  
9 2% 8%  
10 0.9% 6%  
11 0.5% 5%  
12 2% 5% Last Result
13 0.5% 3%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.3% 0.5%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0.2% 99.8%  
8 0.1% 99.5%  
9 0.1% 99.4%  
10 0.4% 99.3%  
11 0% 98.9%  
12 0.1% 98.9%  
13 0.2% 98.8%  
14 2% 98.5%  
15 0.1% 97%  
16 0.8% 97%  
17 0.2% 96%  
18 0.4% 96%  
19 0.2% 95%  
20 0.2% 95%  
21 0% 95%  
22 0.6% 95%  
23 1.2% 94%  
24 0.6% 93%  
25 0.4% 93%  
26 0.2% 92%  
27 0.5% 92%  
28 0.3% 92%  
29 0.3% 91%  
30 12% 91%  
31 0.7% 79%  
32 5% 78%  
33 0.2% 74%  
34 3% 74%  
35 0.2% 71% Last Result
36 4% 71%  
37 0.1% 67%  
38 0.9% 67%  
39 1.4% 66%  
40 0.7% 65%  
41 5% 64%  
42 2% 59%  
43 5% 57%  
44 4% 52% Median
45 0.3% 48%  
46 0.6% 48%  
47 3% 47%  
48 8% 44%  
49 9% 36%  
50 2% 27%  
51 8% 26%  
52 5% 18%  
53 1.3% 13%  
54 5% 12%  
55 5% 6%  
56 1.4% 2%  
57 0.1% 0.3%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 10% 98%  
2 4% 88%  
3 13% 84%  
4 50% 72% Last Result, Median
5 22% 22%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 349 89% 324–373 320–380 314–382 303–389
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 345 86% 320–369 315–375 310–378 299–385
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 329 57% 305–349 298–357 292–359 286–366
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 325 47% 300–346 295–353 287–355 285–363
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 324 49% 302–345 293–350 289–353 280–360
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 321 42% 297–341 290–346 286–350 279–357
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 306 17% 285–331 278–336 276–344 268–346
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 307 16% 286–329 281–338 278–342 271–351
Conservative Party 317 302 12% 282–326 274–333 272–339 265–345
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 286 2% 262–311 256–316 253–321 246–332
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 282 0.8% 258–307 251–311 249–317 242–328
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 281 0.3% 259–303 253–312 249–315 242–322
Labour Party 262 277 0.2% 256–300 248–308 246–311 238–319

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.8%  
298 0% 99.8%  
299 0% 99.8%  
300 0% 99.7%  
301 0.1% 99.7%  
302 0% 99.6%  
303 0.3% 99.6%  
304 0% 99.3%  
305 0% 99.3%  
306 0.2% 99.2%  
307 0.1% 99.0%  
308 0.5% 98.9%  
309 0.1% 98%  
310 0% 98%  
311 0.5% 98%  
312 0% 98%  
313 0.1% 98%  
314 0.2% 98%  
315 1.0% 97%  
316 0.1% 96%  
317 0.7% 96%  
318 0% 96%  
319 0.3% 96%  
320 5% 95%  
321 0.3% 91%  
322 0.1% 90%  
323 0.1% 90%  
324 0.3% 90%  
325 0.9% 90%  
326 0.7% 89% Majority
327 0.5% 88%  
328 0.2% 88%  
329 2% 88%  
330 6% 86%  
331 0.7% 79%  
332 2% 79%  
333 0.2% 77%  
334 4% 77%  
335 3% 72%  
336 2% 69%  
337 0.3% 67%  
338 1.0% 67%  
339 0.7% 66%  
340 0.8% 65%  
341 5% 65%  
342 2% 60%  
343 0.3% 58%  
344 1.1% 58%  
345 3% 56%  
346 0.6% 54%  
347 0.2% 53%  
348 0.7% 53%  
349 3% 52%  
350 3% 49% Median
351 0.5% 46%  
352 6% 45%  
353 2% 39%  
354 0.5% 37%  
355 3% 36%  
356 1.5% 33% Last Result
357 0.2% 32%  
358 5% 31%  
359 0.8% 26%  
360 0.4% 26%  
361 3% 25%  
362 0.4% 23%  
363 3% 22%  
364 0.4% 19%  
365 0.4% 19%  
366 0.6% 18%  
367 2% 18%  
368 0.1% 16%  
369 0.3% 16%  
370 2% 15%  
371 3% 13%  
372 0.4% 10%  
373 0.2% 10%  
374 0.6% 10%  
375 0.8% 9%  
376 0.3% 8%  
377 0.1% 8%  
378 0.9% 8%  
379 0.8% 7%  
380 4% 6%  
381 0.2% 3%  
382 0.3% 3%  
383 0.8% 2%  
384 0.1% 1.5%  
385 0.1% 1.4%  
386 0% 1.4%  
387 0% 1.3%  
388 0.4% 1.3%  
389 0.6% 0.9%  
390 0.1% 0.4%  
391 0.1% 0.3%  
392 0.1% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.8%  
294 0% 99.8%  
295 0% 99.7%  
296 0% 99.7%  
297 0% 99.7%  
298 0% 99.7%  
299 0.3% 99.7%  
300 0.1% 99.4%  
301 0% 99.3%  
302 0% 99.2%  
303 0.3% 99.2%  
304 0.1% 99.0%  
305 0.5% 98.9%  
306 0.3% 98%  
307 0.1% 98%  
308 0% 98%  
309 0.1% 98%  
310 0.4% 98%  
311 0.9% 97%  
312 0.1% 97%  
313 0.7% 96%  
314 0.1% 96%  
315 0.7% 96%  
316 4% 95%  
317 0.2% 91%  
318 0.5% 91%  
319 0.2% 90%  
320 0.2% 90%  
321 0.7% 90%  
322 0.6% 89%  
323 0.3% 89%  
324 0.4% 88%  
325 2% 88%  
326 0.3% 86% Majority
327 0.7% 85%  
328 1.5% 85%  
329 7% 83%  
330 3% 76%  
331 0.9% 73%  
332 0.5% 72%  
333 2% 71%  
334 3% 70%  
335 0.8% 66%  
336 4% 66%  
337 1.4% 61%  
338 0.3% 60%  
339 2% 59%  
340 3% 58%  
341 0.3% 55%  
342 1.2% 55%  
343 0.7% 53%  
344 0.4% 53%  
345 3% 52%  
346 3% 49% Median
347 1.3% 46%  
348 2% 45%  
349 5% 43%  
350 0.7% 37%  
351 3% 36%  
352 1.4% 33% Last Result
353 0.3% 32%  
354 5% 31%  
355 0.2% 27%  
356 3% 27%  
357 1.4% 24%  
358 0.3% 23%  
359 3% 22%  
360 0.4% 19%  
361 0.3% 19%  
362 0.9% 19%  
363 2% 18%  
364 0% 16%  
365 0.3% 16%  
366 0.1% 15%  
367 3% 15%  
368 2% 12%  
369 0.9% 10%  
370 0.1% 10%  
371 0.7% 9%  
372 0.3% 9%  
373 1.0% 8%  
374 0% 7%  
375 3% 7%  
376 1.1% 4%  
377 0.3% 3%  
378 0.2% 3%  
379 0.7% 2%  
380 0.1% 2%  
381 0.1% 2%  
382 0% 1.4%  
383 0.2% 1.4%  
384 0.1% 1.3%  
385 0.7% 1.1%  
386 0.1% 0.4%  
387 0.1% 0.3%  
388 0.1% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.8%  
286 0.3% 99.7%  
287 0% 99.4%  
288 0% 99.4%  
289 0.2% 99.4%  
290 1.1% 99.1%  
291 0.3% 98%  
292 1.0% 98%  
293 0.1% 97%  
294 0.1% 97%  
295 0.3% 96%  
296 0.1% 96%  
297 0.3% 96%  
298 1.1% 96%  
299 0.4% 95%  
300 0.2% 94%  
301 0.3% 94%  
302 1.1% 94%  
303 0.3% 93%  
304 1.2% 93%  
305 3% 91%  
306 0.1% 88%  
307 2% 88%  
308 1.0% 86%  
309 2% 85%  
310 1.1% 83%  
311 0.8% 82%  
312 2% 82%  
313 2% 79% Last Result
314 0.7% 77%  
315 1.4% 77%  
316 4% 75%  
317 0% 72%  
318 0.7% 72%  
319 0.5% 71%  
320 3% 71%  
321 0.4% 67%  
322 0% 67%  
323 2% 67%  
324 0.6% 65%  
325 8% 65%  
326 0.8% 57% Majority
327 6% 56%  
328 0.1% 50%  
329 3% 50% Median
330 0.3% 47%  
331 0.4% 47%  
332 7% 46%  
333 0.2% 39%  
334 2% 39%  
335 0.7% 37%  
336 2% 36%  
337 0.5% 34%  
338 1.4% 34%  
339 3% 32%  
340 0.1% 30%  
341 0.3% 29%  
342 0.6% 29%  
343 0.5% 29%  
344 2% 28%  
345 0.1% 26%  
346 8% 26%  
347 4% 18%  
348 3% 14%  
349 2% 11%  
350 2% 9%  
351 0.2% 7%  
352 0.3% 7%  
353 0.4% 7%  
354 0.7% 7%  
355 0.4% 6%  
356 0.4% 6%  
357 1.4% 5%  
358 1.2% 4%  
359 0.4% 3%  
360 0.5% 2%  
361 0.5% 2%  
362 0.2% 1.2%  
363 0.1% 1.0%  
364 0.1% 0.9%  
365 0.2% 0.8%  
366 0.2% 0.6%  
367 0% 0.5%  
368 0.1% 0.4%  
369 0.1% 0.3%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0.1% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.9%  
281 0.1% 99.8%  
282 0% 99.7%  
283 0% 99.7%  
284 0.1% 99.7%  
285 0.2% 99.6%  
286 1.2% 99.4%  
287 1.4% 98%  
288 0% 97%  
289 0.2% 97%  
290 0.1% 97%  
291 0.2% 96%  
292 0.1% 96%  
293 0.5% 96%  
294 0.2% 96%  
295 1.0% 96%  
296 0.3% 95%  
297 0.1% 94%  
298 0.8% 94%  
299 0.6% 93%  
300 4% 93%  
301 0.1% 89%  
302 0.3% 88%  
303 0.4% 88%  
304 0.6% 88%  
305 4% 87%  
306 1.2% 83%  
307 0.6% 82%  
308 0% 82%  
309 4% 81% Last Result
310 0.2% 77%  
311 2% 77%  
312 3% 75%  
313 0.3% 72%  
314 0.5% 72%  
315 0.4% 71%  
316 3% 71%  
317 0.5% 68%  
318 0.1% 67%  
319 0.9% 67%  
320 2% 66%  
321 6% 64%  
322 5% 58%  
323 3% 54%  
324 0.3% 51%  
325 3% 50% Median
326 0.2% 47% Majority
327 1.3% 47%  
328 0.7% 46%  
329 0.3% 45%  
330 2% 45%  
331 8% 43%  
332 0.7% 35%  
333 0.9% 35%  
334 1.0% 34%  
335 3% 33%  
336 0.3% 30%  
337 0.5% 30%  
338 0.4% 29%  
339 0.5% 29%  
340 1.1% 28%  
341 4% 27%  
342 1.4% 23%  
343 5% 22%  
344 3% 17%  
345 3% 14%  
346 3% 11%  
347 0.4% 8%  
348 0.3% 7%  
349 0.3% 7%  
350 0.9% 7%  
351 0.4% 6%  
352 0.1% 6%  
353 1.0% 5%  
354 1.5% 4%  
355 0.5% 3%  
356 0.8% 2%  
357 0.1% 2%  
358 0.4% 2%  
359 0.1% 1.2%  
360 0% 1.0%  
361 0.3% 1.0%  
362 0% 0.6%  
363 0.1% 0.6%  
364 0.1% 0.5%  
365 0.1% 0.4%  
366 0% 0.2%  
367 0.1% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0.1% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.9%  
279 0.3% 99.8%  
280 0.1% 99.5%  
281 0% 99.4%  
282 0% 99.4%  
283 0.2% 99.4%  
284 0.1% 99.2%  
285 0.7% 99.1%  
286 0.3% 98%  
287 0.3% 98%  
288 0.3% 98%  
289 0.3% 98%  
290 0.1% 97%  
291 1.0% 97%  
292 0.6% 96%  
293 0.8% 96%  
294 0.1% 95%  
295 0.5% 95%  
296 1.0% 94%  
297 0.5% 93%  
298 0.2% 93%  
299 0.2% 92%  
300 0.8% 92%  
301 0.3% 91% Last Result
302 4% 91%  
303 0.5% 87%  
304 0.4% 86%  
305 2% 86%  
306 2% 84%  
307 0.4% 82%  
308 3% 81%  
309 0.1% 79%  
310 2% 78%  
311 1.5% 76%  
312 1.1% 75%  
313 3% 74%  
314 2% 71%  
315 0.2% 69%  
316 0.8% 69%  
317 2% 68%  
318 1.1% 66%  
319 4% 65%  
320 0% 62%  
321 5% 62%  
322 5% 57%  
323 1.2% 51%  
324 0.5% 50%  
325 1.1% 50% Median
326 0.5% 49% Majority
327 6% 48%  
328 0.4% 42%  
329 4% 42%  
330 1.5% 38%  
331 0.5% 36%  
332 1.1% 36%  
333 0.7% 35%  
334 3% 34%  
335 0.2% 31%  
336 1.2% 30%  
337 0.4% 29%  
338 1.3% 29%  
339 5% 28%  
340 1.1% 23%  
341 0.5% 22%  
342 0.8% 21%  
343 4% 20%  
344 5% 16%  
345 3% 12%  
346 0.9% 9%  
347 0.6% 8%  
348 2% 7%  
349 0.5% 6%  
350 0.4% 5%  
351 0.4% 5%  
352 1.3% 4%  
353 0.6% 3%  
354 0.7% 2%  
355 0.4% 2%  
356 0.1% 1.4%  
357 0.1% 1.3%  
358 0.7% 1.3%  
359 0.1% 0.6%  
360 0% 0.5%  
361 0.2% 0.5%  
362 0% 0.3%  
363 0% 0.3%  
364 0.1% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.8%  
277 0% 99.7%  
278 0.1% 99.7%  
279 0.5% 99.6%  
280 0.1% 99.2%  
281 0.6% 99.0%  
282 0.3% 98%  
283 0.3% 98%  
284 0.2% 98%  
285 0.1% 98%  
286 1.1% 98%  
287 0.2% 96%  
288 0.4% 96%  
289 0.1% 96%  
290 1.1% 96%  
291 0.1% 95%  
292 1.3% 95%  
293 0.5% 93%  
294 0.1% 93%  
295 0.2% 93%  
296 0.8% 92%  
297 3% 92% Last Result
298 1.5% 89%  
299 0.8% 87%  
300 0.2% 86%  
301 2% 86%  
302 1.1% 84%  
303 0.7% 83%  
304 2% 83%  
305 2% 81%  
306 2% 79%  
307 1.2% 76%  
308 1.2% 75%  
309 3% 74%  
310 2% 71%  
311 0.2% 69%  
312 0.7% 69%  
313 1.4% 68%  
314 3% 67%  
315 1.1% 63%  
316 0.5% 62%  
317 5% 62%  
318 4% 57%  
319 2% 53%  
320 0.5% 51%  
321 1.2% 50% Median
322 0.6% 49%  
323 0.3% 48%  
324 0.4% 48%  
325 5% 48%  
326 6% 42% Majority
327 0.5% 36%  
328 0.6% 36%  
329 3% 35%  
330 2% 33%  
331 1.0% 31%  
332 0.2% 30%  
333 0.3% 30%  
334 2% 29%  
335 1.3% 27%  
336 2% 26%  
337 0.1% 24%  
338 7% 24%  
339 0.7% 17%  
340 4% 16%  
341 3% 12%  
342 1.3% 10%  
343 0.8% 8%  
344 0.3% 8%  
345 2% 7%  
346 0.2% 5%  
347 0.6% 5%  
348 1.2% 4%  
349 0.2% 3%  
350 1.0% 3%  
351 0.4% 2%  
352 0.1% 2%  
353 0.1% 2%  
354 0.6% 1.4%  
355 0.3% 0.9%  
356 0% 0.6%  
357 0.1% 0.5%  
358 0.1% 0.5%  
359 0.1% 0.4%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0.1% 0.1%  
365 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100%  
262 0.1% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0.1% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.8%  
266 0.1% 99.8%  
267 0.1% 99.6%  
268 0.1% 99.5%  
269 0.1% 99.4%  
270 0.3% 99.4%  
271 0% 99.0%  
272 0.1% 99.0%  
273 0.4% 98.8%  
274 0.1% 98%  
275 0.8% 98%  
276 0.5% 98%  
277 1.5% 97%  
278 1.0% 96%  
279 0.1% 95%  
280 0.4% 94%  
281 0.9% 94%  
282 0.3% 93%  
283 0.3% 93%  
284 0.4% 93%  
285 3% 92%  
286 3% 89%  
287 3% 86%  
288 5% 83%  
289 1.5% 78%  
290 4% 77%  
291 1.2% 73%  
292 0.5% 72%  
293 0.4% 71%  
294 0.5% 71%  
295 0.3% 70%  
296 3% 70%  
297 1.0% 67%  
298 0.9% 66%  
299 0.7% 65%  
300 8% 65%  
301 2% 57%  
302 0.3% 55%  
303 0.7% 55%  
304 1.3% 54%  
305 0.2% 53%  
306 3% 53% Median
307 0.3% 50%  
308 3% 49%  
309 5% 46%  
310 6% 42%  
311 2% 36%  
312 0.9% 34%  
313 0.1% 33%  
314 0.5% 33%  
315 3% 32%  
316 0.4% 29%  
317 0.5% 29%  
318 0.3% 28%  
319 3% 28%  
320 2% 25%  
321 0.2% 23% Last Result
322 4% 23%  
323 0% 19%  
324 0.6% 18%  
325 1.2% 18%  
326 4% 17% Majority
327 0.6% 13%  
328 0.4% 12%  
329 0.3% 12%  
330 0.1% 12%  
331 4% 11%  
332 0.6% 7%  
333 0.8% 7%  
334 0.1% 6%  
335 0.3% 6%  
336 1.0% 5%  
337 0.2% 4%  
338 0.5% 4%  
339 0.1% 4%  
340 0.2% 4%  
341 0.1% 4%  
342 0.2% 3%  
343 0% 3%  
344 1.4% 3%  
345 1.2% 2%  
346 0.2% 0.6%  
347 0.1% 0.4%  
348 0% 0.3%  
349 0% 0.3%  
350 0.1% 0.3%  
351 0.1% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.8%  
269 0% 99.7%  
270 0.2% 99.7%  
271 0% 99.5%  
272 0.1% 99.5%  
273 0.7% 99.4%  
274 0.1% 98.7%  
275 0.1% 98.7%  
276 0.4% 98.6%  
277 0.7% 98%  
278 0.6% 98%  
279 1.3% 97%  
280 0.4% 96%  
281 0.4% 95%  
282 0.5% 95%  
283 2% 94%  
284 0.6% 93%  
285 0.9% 92%  
286 3% 91%  
287 5% 88%  
288 4% 84%  
289 0.8% 80%  
290 0.5% 79%  
291 1.1% 78%  
292 5% 77%  
293 1.3% 72%  
294 0.4% 71%  
295 1.2% 71%  
296 0.2% 70%  
297 3% 69%  
298 0.7% 66%  
299 1.1% 65%  
300 0.5% 64%  
301 1.5% 64%  
302 4% 62%  
303 0.4% 58%  
304 6% 58%  
305 0.5% 52%  
306 1.1% 51% Median
307 0.5% 50%  
308 1.2% 50%  
309 5% 49%  
310 5% 43%  
311 0% 38%  
312 4% 38%  
313 1.1% 35%  
314 2% 34%  
315 0.8% 32%  
316 0.2% 31%  
317 2% 31%  
318 3% 29%  
319 1.1% 26%  
320 1.5% 25%  
321 2% 24%  
322 0.1% 22%  
323 3% 21%  
324 0.4% 19%  
325 2% 18%  
326 2% 16% Majority
327 0.4% 14%  
328 0.5% 14%  
329 4% 13% Last Result
330 0.3% 9%  
331 0.8% 9%  
332 0.2% 8%  
333 0.2% 8%  
334 0.5% 7%  
335 1.0% 7%  
336 0.5% 6%  
337 0.1% 5%  
338 0.8% 5%  
339 0.6% 4%  
340 1.0% 4%  
341 0.1% 3%  
342 0.3% 3%  
343 0.3% 2%  
344 0.3% 2%  
345 0.3% 2%  
346 0.7% 2%  
347 0.1% 0.9%  
348 0.2% 0.8%  
349 0% 0.6%  
350 0% 0.6%  
351 0.1% 0.6%  
352 0.3% 0.5%  
353 0.1% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
257 0% 100%  
258 0.1% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.8%  
262 0.1% 99.8%  
263 0.1% 99.7%  
264 0% 99.6%  
265 0.2% 99.5%  
266 0.2% 99.4%  
267 0.1% 99.2%  
268 0.1% 99.1%  
269 0.2% 99.0%  
270 0.5% 98.8%  
271 0.5% 98%  
272 0.4% 98%  
273 1.2% 97%  
274 1.4% 96%  
275 0.4% 95%  
276 0.4% 94%  
277 0.7% 94%  
278 0.4% 93%  
279 0.3% 93%  
280 0.2% 93%  
281 2% 93%  
282 2% 91%  
283 3% 89%  
284 4% 86%  
285 8% 82%  
286 0.1% 74%  
287 2% 74%  
288 0.5% 72%  
289 0.6% 71%  
290 0.3% 71%  
291 0.1% 71%  
292 3% 70%  
293 1.4% 68%  
294 0.5% 66%  
295 2% 66%  
296 0.7% 64%  
297 2% 63%  
298 0.2% 61%  
299 7% 61%  
300 0.4% 54%  
301 0.3% 53%  
302 3% 53% Median
303 0.1% 50%  
304 6% 50%  
305 0.8% 44%  
306 8% 43%  
307 0.6% 35%  
308 2% 35%  
309 0% 33%  
310 0.4% 33%  
311 3% 33%  
312 0.5% 29%  
313 0.7% 29%  
314 0% 28%  
315 4% 28%  
316 1.4% 25%  
317 0.7% 23% Last Result
318 2% 23%  
319 2% 21%  
320 0.8% 18%  
321 1.1% 18%  
322 2% 17%  
323 1.0% 15%  
324 2% 14%  
325 0.1% 12%  
326 3% 12% Majority
327 1.2% 9%  
328 0.3% 7%  
329 1.1% 7%  
330 0.3% 6%  
331 0.2% 6%  
332 0.4% 6%  
333 1.1% 5%  
334 0.3% 4%  
335 0.1% 4%  
336 0.3% 4%  
337 0.1% 4%  
338 0.1% 3%  
339 1.0% 3%  
340 0.3% 2%  
341 1.1% 2%  
342 0.2% 0.9%  
343 0% 0.6%  
344 0% 0.6%  
345 0.3% 0.6%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0.1% 99.9%  
244 0.1% 99.8%  
245 0.1% 99.7%  
246 0.7% 99.6%  
247 0.1% 98.9%  
248 0.2% 98.7%  
249 0% 98.6%  
250 0.1% 98.6%  
251 0.1% 98%  
252 0.7% 98%  
253 0.2% 98%  
254 0.3% 97%  
255 1.1% 97%  
256 3% 96%  
257 0% 93%  
258 1.0% 93%  
259 0.3% 92%  
260 0.7% 91%  
261 0.1% 91%  
262 0.9% 90%  
263 2% 90%  
264 3% 88%  
265 0.1% 85%  
266 0.3% 85%  
267 0% 84%  
268 2% 84%  
269 0.9% 82%  
270 0.3% 81%  
271 0.4% 81%  
272 3% 81%  
273 0.3% 78%  
274 1.4% 77%  
275 3% 76%  
276 0.2% 73%  
277 5% 73%  
278 0.3% 69% Last Result
279 1.4% 68%  
280 3% 67%  
281 0.7% 64%  
282 5% 63%  
283 2% 57%  
284 1.3% 55%  
285 3% 54% Median
286 3% 51%  
287 0.4% 48%  
288 0.7% 47%  
289 1.2% 47%  
290 0.3% 45%  
291 3% 45%  
292 2% 42%  
293 0.3% 41%  
294 1.4% 40%  
295 4% 39%  
296 0.8% 34%  
297 3% 34%  
298 2% 30%  
299 0.5% 29%  
300 0.9% 28%  
301 3% 27%  
302 7% 24%  
303 1.5% 17%  
304 0.7% 15%  
305 0.3% 15%  
306 2% 14%  
307 0.4% 12%  
308 0.3% 12%  
309 0.6% 11%  
310 0.7% 11%  
311 0.2% 10%  
312 0.2% 10%  
313 0.5% 10%  
314 0.2% 9%  
315 4% 9%  
316 0.7% 5%  
317 0.1% 4%  
318 0.7% 4%  
319 0.1% 4%  
320 0.9% 3%  
321 0.4% 3%  
322 0.1% 2%  
323 0% 2%  
324 0.1% 2%  
325 0.3% 2%  
326 0.5% 2% Majority
327 0.1% 1.1%  
328 0.3% 1.0%  
329 0% 0.8%  
330 0% 0.8%  
331 0.1% 0.7%  
332 0.3% 0.6%  
333 0% 0.3%  
334 0% 0.3%  
335 0% 0.3%  
336 0% 0.3%  
337 0% 0.3%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0.1% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.8%  
241 0.1% 99.7%  
242 0.6% 99.6%  
243 0.4% 99.1%  
244 0% 98.7%  
245 0% 98.7%  
246 0.1% 98.6%  
247 0.1% 98.6%  
248 0.8% 98.5%  
249 0.3% 98%  
250 0.2% 97%  
251 4% 97%  
252 0.8% 94%  
253 0.9% 93%  
254 0.1% 92%  
255 0.3% 92%  
256 0.8% 92%  
257 0.6% 91%  
258 0.2% 90%  
259 0.4% 90%  
260 3% 90%  
261 2% 87%  
262 0.3% 85%  
263 0.1% 84%  
264 2% 84%  
265 0.6% 82%  
266 0.4% 82%  
267 0.4% 81%  
268 3% 81%  
269 0.4% 78%  
270 3% 77%  
271 0.4% 75%  
272 0.8% 74%  
273 5% 74%  
274 0.2% 69% Last Result
275 1.5% 68%  
276 3% 67%  
277 0.5% 64%  
278 2% 63%  
279 6% 61%  
280 0.5% 55%  
281 3% 54% Median
282 3% 51%  
283 0.7% 48%  
284 0.2% 47%  
285 0.6% 47%  
286 3% 46%  
287 1.1% 44%  
288 0.3% 42%  
289 2% 42%  
290 5% 40%  
291 0.8% 35%  
292 0.7% 35%  
293 1.0% 34%  
294 0.3% 33%  
295 2% 33%  
296 3% 31%  
297 4% 28%  
298 0.2% 23%  
299 2% 23%  
300 0.7% 21%  
301 6% 21%  
302 2% 14%  
303 0.2% 12%  
304 0.5% 12%  
305 0.7% 12%  
306 0.9% 11%  
307 0.3% 10%  
308 0.1% 10%  
309 0.1% 10%  
310 0.3% 10%  
311 5% 9%  
312 0.3% 5%  
313 0.1% 4%  
314 0.7% 4%  
315 0.1% 4%  
316 1.0% 4%  
317 0.2% 3%  
318 0.1% 2%  
319 0% 2%  
320 0.5% 2%  
321 0% 2%  
322 0.1% 2%  
323 0.5% 2%  
324 0.1% 1.1%  
325 0.2% 1.0%  
326 0% 0.8% Majority
327 0% 0.7%  
328 0.3% 0.7%  
329 0% 0.4%  
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0.5% 99.9%  
243 0.1% 99.3%  
244 0.1% 99.3%  
245 0.5% 99.2%  
246 0.2% 98.7%  
247 0.8% 98%  
248 0% 98%  
249 0.2% 98%  
250 0.8% 97%  
251 0.3% 97%  
252 0.1% 96%  
253 4% 96%  
254 0.4% 93%  
255 0.5% 92%  
256 0.2% 92%  
257 0.9% 91%  
258 0.2% 91%  
259 0.4% 90%  
260 0.3% 90%  
261 4% 90%  
262 2% 86%  
263 0.4% 84%  
264 3% 83%  
265 0.2% 80%  
266 1.2% 80% Last Result
267 0.2% 79%  
268 0.5% 79%  
269 1.4% 78%  
270 2% 77%  
271 0.4% 75%  
272 2% 75%  
273 5% 73%  
274 0.5% 68%  
275 0.1% 68%  
276 0.4% 68%  
277 3% 67%  
278 3% 65%  
279 2% 62%  
280 7% 60%  
281 5% 53% Median
282 1.2% 49%  
283 3% 48%  
284 0.3% 44%  
285 2% 44%  
286 0.9% 42%  
287 0.4% 41%  
288 0.2% 41%  
289 2% 41%  
290 3% 38%  
291 0.8% 35%  
292 4% 34%  
293 0.2% 30%  
294 0.5% 30%  
295 0.6% 29%  
296 0.3% 29%  
297 7% 28%  
298 4% 21%  
299 0.8% 17%  
300 4% 17%  
301 2% 13%  
302 0.6% 11%  
303 0.5% 10%  
304 1.0% 10%  
305 0.1% 9%  
306 0.1% 9%  
307 0.5% 9%  
308 1.2% 8%  
309 0.3% 7%  
310 0.3% 7%  
311 0.1% 6%  
312 3% 6%  
313 0.5% 3%  
314 0% 3%  
315 0.7% 3%  
316 0.3% 2%  
317 0.1% 2%  
318 0% 1.5%  
319 0.1% 1.4%  
320 0% 1.4%  
321 0.2% 1.3%  
322 0.6% 1.1%  
323 0.1% 0.5%  
324 0% 0.4%  
325 0% 0.3%  
326 0% 0.3% Majority
327 0% 0.3%  
328 0% 0.3%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0.1% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0.1% 99.9%  
238 0.5% 99.8%  
239 0.1% 99.3%  
240 0.1% 99.3%  
241 0.3% 99.1%  
242 0.2% 98.8%  
243 0.8% 98.6%  
244 0% 98%  
245 0.1% 98%  
246 0.3% 98%  
247 0.9% 97%  
248 3% 97%  
249 0.5% 93%  
250 0.8% 93%  
251 0.2% 92%  
252 1.0% 92%  
253 0.1% 91%  
254 0.3% 91%  
255 0.4% 91%  
256 0.4% 90%  
257 3% 90%  
258 0.8% 86%  
259 0.8% 85%  
260 5% 85%  
261 0.3% 80%  
262 0.7% 80% Last Result
263 0.2% 79%  
264 0.1% 79%  
265 2% 79%  
266 1.3% 77%  
267 2% 76%  
268 1.1% 74%  
269 5% 73%  
270 0.2% 68%  
271 0.1% 68%  
272 0.6% 68%  
273 2% 67%  
274 0.1% 65%  
275 3% 65%  
276 9% 62%  
277 5% 53% Median
278 3% 49%  
279 1.2% 45%  
280 0.8% 44%  
281 0.4% 43%  
282 2% 43%  
283 0.1% 41%  
284 0.2% 41%  
285 1.5% 41%  
286 0.4% 39%  
287 5% 39%  
288 1.0% 33%  
289 3% 32%  
290 0.4% 30%  
291 0.6% 29%  
292 0.2% 29%  
293 0.3% 28%  
294 5% 28%  
295 2% 23%  
296 8% 21%  
297 2% 13%  
298 0.8% 12%  
299 0.5% 11%  
300 1.1% 10%  
301 0.1% 9%  
302 0.6% 9%  
303 0.2% 8%  
304 1.2% 8%  
305 0.3% 7%  
306 0.1% 7%  
307 0.3% 7%  
308 3% 6%  
309 0.3% 3%  
310 0% 3%  
311 0.9% 3%  
312 0.2% 2%  
313 0% 2%  
314 0.1% 2%  
315 0.1% 2%  
316 0.1% 1.4%  
317 0.2% 1.3%  
318 0% 1.1%  
319 0.8% 1.1%  
320 0% 0.3%  
321 0% 0.3%  
322 0% 0.3%  
323 0% 0.3%  
324 0% 0.3%  
325 0% 0.3%  
326 0.1% 0.2% Majority
327 0.1% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations