Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 5–6 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 43.0% 41.6–44.4% 41.2–44.8% 40.8–45.2% 40.2–45.9%
Labour Party 40.0% 39.0% 37.6–40.4% 37.2–40.8% 36.9–41.2% 36.2–41.8%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 2.6% 2.1–3.1% 2.0–3.2% 1.9–3.3% 1.8–3.6%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.4% 0.3–0.7% 0.3–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 332 308–348 304–351 302–353 289–362
Labour Party 262 266 244–292 238–299 233–303 226–316
Liberal Democrats 12 16 12–18 10–20 9–21 8–23
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Scottish National Party 35 13 3–35 1–40 0–40 0–46
Plaid Cymru 4 2 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
280 0% 100%  
281 0.1% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.8%  
284 0% 99.8%  
285 0% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.8%  
287 0% 99.7%  
288 0.1% 99.6%  
289 0.2% 99.5%  
290 0.1% 99.3%  
291 0.5% 99.2%  
292 0.1% 98.7%  
293 0.1% 98.7%  
294 0.1% 98.6%  
295 0.2% 98%  
296 0.1% 98%  
297 0.2% 98%  
298 0.1% 98%  
299 0% 98%  
300 0.1% 98%  
301 0% 98%  
302 0.5% 98%  
303 2% 97%  
304 1.3% 95%  
305 1.1% 94%  
306 0.7% 93%  
307 0.7% 92%  
308 4% 91%  
309 0.1% 87%  
310 0.2% 87%  
311 1.0% 87%  
312 0.1% 86%  
313 1.2% 86%  
314 0.6% 85%  
315 0.2% 84%  
316 0.1% 84%  
317 0.2% 84% Last Result
318 0.5% 83%  
319 1.2% 83%  
320 0.8% 82%  
321 0.6% 81%  
322 5% 80%  
323 9% 75%  
324 1.3% 66%  
325 3% 65%  
326 7% 62% Majority
327 0.2% 55%  
328 0.5% 55%  
329 3% 54%  
330 0.7% 52%  
331 0.5% 51%  
332 1.1% 50% Median
333 2% 49%  
334 0.4% 47%  
335 0.8% 47%  
336 2% 46%  
337 3% 44%  
338 6% 40%  
339 9% 34%  
340 2% 25%  
341 2% 23%  
342 2% 21%  
343 1.1% 19%  
344 2% 18%  
345 0.3% 16%  
346 1.1% 16%  
347 2% 15%  
348 5% 13%  
349 0.6% 8%  
350 2% 7%  
351 0.4% 5%  
352 1.4% 5%  
353 1.3% 3%  
354 0.3% 2%  
355 0.1% 2%  
356 0.1% 2%  
357 0.1% 2%  
358 0.2% 2%  
359 0.7% 1.4%  
360 0% 0.7%  
361 0.1% 0.7%  
362 0.1% 0.6%  
363 0.1% 0.5%  
364 0% 0.4%  
365 0.1% 0.4%  
366 0.3% 0.3%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0.1% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.8%  
225 0% 99.8%  
226 0.2% 99.7%  
227 0.2% 99.5%  
228 0.2% 99.3%  
229 0.6% 99.2%  
230 0.1% 98.6%  
231 0.2% 98%  
232 0.6% 98%  
233 0.5% 98%  
234 0.1% 97%  
235 0% 97%  
236 1.5% 97%  
237 0.3% 96%  
238 0.4% 95%  
239 0.6% 95%  
240 2% 94%  
241 0.9% 93%  
242 1.2% 92%  
243 0.3% 91%  
244 2% 90%  
245 0.4% 88%  
246 0.7% 88%  
247 0.9% 87%  
248 1.1% 86%  
249 2% 85%  
250 0.5% 84%  
251 0.7% 83%  
252 1.3% 82%  
253 8% 81%  
254 1.4% 73%  
255 1.0% 72%  
256 2% 71%  
257 2% 69%  
258 0.4% 67%  
259 0.5% 67%  
260 0.5% 67%  
261 0.9% 66%  
262 0.4% 65% Last Result
263 3% 65%  
264 11% 62%  
265 1.1% 51%  
266 0.3% 50% Median
267 0.6% 50%  
268 3% 49%  
269 2% 46%  
270 2% 44%  
271 3% 41%  
272 5% 39%  
273 0.4% 34%  
274 0.5% 33%  
275 2% 33%  
276 0.1% 31%  
277 0.3% 31%  
278 0.8% 31%  
279 2% 30%  
280 1.0% 28%  
281 7% 27%  
282 0.9% 20%  
283 0.9% 19%  
284 0.9% 18%  
285 0.3% 17%  
286 0.2% 17%  
287 4% 17%  
288 0.6% 13%  
289 0.6% 12%  
290 0% 12%  
291 0.1% 12%  
292 4% 12%  
293 1.1% 7%  
294 0.1% 6%  
295 0.1% 6%  
296 0% 6%  
297 0.7% 6%  
298 0.4% 5%  
299 0.1% 5%  
300 1.3% 5%  
301 0.4% 4%  
302 0.1% 3%  
303 1.2% 3%  
304 0.1% 2%  
305 0.2% 2%  
306 0.3% 2%  
307 0.1% 1.4%  
308 0% 1.2%  
309 0.1% 1.2%  
310 0.1% 1.0%  
311 0% 1.0%  
312 0% 0.9%  
313 0% 0.9%  
314 0.2% 0.9%  
315 0% 0.7%  
316 0.3% 0.7%  
317 0% 0.4%  
318 0.1% 0.4%  
319 0.1% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.3% 99.9%  
8 0.9% 99.6%  
9 2% 98.7%  
10 4% 97%  
11 1.2% 93%  
12 4% 91% Last Result
13 5% 88%  
14 10% 83%  
15 5% 73%  
16 27% 68% Median
17 19% 41%  
18 14% 22%  
19 2% 8%  
20 2% 6%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.9% 2%  
23 0.2% 0.6%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 3% 97%  
2 3% 94%  
3 8% 91%  
4 4% 82%  
5 9% 79%  
6 3% 70%  
7 3% 66%  
8 2% 63%  
9 5% 61%  
10 0% 56%  
11 2% 56%  
12 2% 54%  
13 4% 52% Median
14 0.7% 48%  
15 3% 47%  
16 0.2% 44%  
17 2% 44%  
18 1.1% 42%  
19 3% 41%  
20 0.9% 38%  
21 4% 37%  
22 0.3% 33%  
23 8% 33%  
24 1.1% 25%  
25 0.1% 24%  
26 8% 24%  
27 2% 15%  
28 0.5% 13%  
29 0.3% 13%  
30 0% 12%  
31 0.2% 12%  
32 0.6% 12%  
33 0.4% 12%  
34 0.1% 11%  
35 2% 11% Last Result
36 1.1% 9%  
37 0.4% 8%  
38 0.4% 7%  
39 1.3% 7%  
40 4% 6%  
41 0.7% 2%  
42 0.2% 1.4%  
43 0.3% 1.2%  
44 0.1% 0.9%  
45 0% 0.8%  
46 0.4% 0.8%  
47 0% 0.4%  
48 0.2% 0.4%  
49 0% 0.2%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100%  
1 14% 84%  
2 35% 70% Median
3 10% 35%  
4 19% 25% Last Result
5 6% 6%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 351 88% 322–372 316–378 310–383 299–389
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 349 83% 321–369 312–374 308–380 298–385
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 347 87% 325–362 320–367 318–369 306–376
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 334 68% 309–350 307–354 305–356 291–365
Conservative Party 317 332 62% 308–348 304–351 302–353 289–362
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 299 7% 283–323 280–327 278–329 269–342
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 297 3% 281–322 277–324 275–326 266–340
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 282 2% 262–310 257–319 251–323 246–333
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 280 1.0% 258–309 253–315 248–321 242–332
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 284 0.3% 268–306 264–310 262–313 255–325
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 282 0.2% 267–305 262–307 259–310 254–323
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 269 0.1% 246–293 242–300 236–305 229–317
Labour Party 262 266 0% 244–292 238–299 233–303 226–316

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.8%  
294 0% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.8%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0% 99.7%  
298 0.1% 99.6%  
299 0.2% 99.6%  
300 0.2% 99.3%  
301 0% 99.1%  
302 0% 99.1%  
303 0% 99.1%  
304 0.1% 99.0%  
305 0.1% 99.0%  
306 0.2% 98.8%  
307 0.1% 98.6%  
308 0.1% 98%  
309 0.3% 98%  
310 1.4% 98%  
311 0% 97%  
312 0% 97%  
313 0.8% 97%  
314 0.1% 96%  
315 0.1% 96%  
316 1.3% 96%  
317 0.1% 94%  
318 0.1% 94%  
319 0.1% 94%  
320 0.1% 94%  
321 0.1% 94%  
322 5% 94%  
323 0.1% 89%  
324 0.4% 88%  
325 0.1% 88%  
326 0.5% 88% Majority
327 0.7% 87%  
328 4% 87%  
329 0% 83%  
330 0.9% 83%  
331 0.5% 82%  
332 7% 81%  
333 1.3% 74%  
334 0.2% 73%  
335 0.7% 73%  
336 2% 72%  
337 0.3% 70%  
338 0.4% 70%  
339 0.2% 69%  
340 0.5% 69%  
341 0.1% 68%  
342 0.6% 68%  
343 6% 68%  
344 4% 62%  
345 0.9% 58%  
346 2% 57%  
347 3% 55% Median
348 0.4% 53%  
349 0.6% 52%  
350 1.0% 52%  
351 12% 51%  
352 2% 39%  
353 2% 37%  
354 0.8% 35%  
355 0.2% 34%  
356 0.4% 34% Last Result
357 2% 34%  
358 0.3% 32%  
359 1.4% 32%  
360 0.7% 30%  
361 4% 30%  
362 0.6% 26%  
363 1.0% 25%  
364 7% 24%  
365 2% 18%  
366 1.0% 16%  
367 0.7% 15%  
368 0.3% 14%  
369 1.2% 14%  
370 0.6% 13%  
371 2% 12%  
372 0.8% 11%  
373 1.2% 10%  
374 2% 9%  
375 0.5% 7%  
376 0.3% 6%  
377 1.2% 6%  
378 1.5% 5%  
379 0.3% 4%  
380 0.2% 3%  
381 0% 3%  
382 0.2% 3%  
383 0.5% 3%  
384 0.2% 2%  
385 1.0% 2%  
386 0.1% 1.2%  
387 0.4% 1.1%  
388 0% 0.7%  
389 0.3% 0.6%  
390 0% 0.4%  
391 0% 0.3%  
392 0% 0.3%  
393 0% 0.3%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0.1% 0.2%  
396 0% 0.2%  
397 0% 0.2%  
398 0.1% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0.1% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.8%  
292 0% 99.8%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.8%  
296 0% 99.7%  
297 0.1% 99.6%  
298 0.3% 99.5%  
299 0.1% 99.2%  
300 0% 99.1%  
301 0.1% 99.1%  
302 0% 98.9%  
303 0% 98.9%  
304 0.1% 98.9%  
305 0.6% 98.8%  
306 0.1% 98%  
307 0.1% 98%  
308 1.2% 98%  
309 0.3% 97%  
310 0% 97%  
311 0.1% 97%  
312 2% 97%  
313 0.1% 95%  
314 0% 95%  
315 0.1% 94%  
316 0.2% 94%  
317 0.1% 94%  
318 0.1% 94%  
319 0.1% 94%  
320 0.8% 94%  
321 4% 93%  
322 1.0% 89%  
323 0.4% 88%  
324 1.0% 88%  
325 4% 87%  
326 0.1% 83% Majority
327 0% 83%  
328 0.8% 83%  
329 0.1% 82%  
330 1.4% 82%  
331 7% 80%  
332 0.6% 73%  
333 0.1% 72%  
334 2% 72%  
335 0.5% 70%  
336 0.7% 69%  
337 0.1% 69%  
338 0.1% 69%  
339 1.3% 68%  
340 0.7% 67%  
341 4% 66%  
342 2% 62%  
343 4% 60%  
344 4% 57%  
345 0.9% 53% Median
346 1.0% 52%  
347 0.5% 51%  
348 0.3% 51%  
349 10% 50%  
350 2% 40%  
351 2% 38%  
352 0.7% 36% Last Result
353 3% 35%  
354 0.2% 32%  
355 0.7% 32%  
356 0.6% 31%  
357 0.9% 31%  
358 1.3% 30%  
359 4% 29%  
360 1.0% 25%  
361 0.4% 24%  
362 6% 23%  
363 1.3% 18%  
364 1.0% 17%  
365 1.0% 16%  
366 2% 15%  
367 1.1% 13%  
368 1.0% 11%  
369 0.7% 11%  
370 0.2% 10%  
371 0.7% 10%  
372 2% 9%  
373 2% 7%  
374 1.4% 5%  
375 0.1% 4%  
376 0.5% 4%  
377 0.1% 3%  
378 0.3% 3%  
379 0.3% 3%  
380 0.1% 3%  
381 0.3% 2%  
382 0.7% 2%  
383 0.3% 2%  
384 0.2% 1.2%  
385 0.6% 1.0%  
386 0.1% 0.5%  
387 0.1% 0.4%  
388 0% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.3%  
390 0% 0.3%  
391 0.1% 0.3%  
392 0% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0.1% 0.1%  
399 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.8%  
302 0% 99.8%  
303 0% 99.8%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.7%  
306 0.3% 99.7%  
307 0.2% 99.3%  
308 0.1% 99.1%  
309 0.2% 98.9%  
310 0.3% 98.8%  
311 0.3% 98.5%  
312 0.2% 98%  
313 0.2% 98%  
314 0% 98%  
315 0% 98%  
316 0.1% 98%  
317 0.1% 98%  
318 2% 98%  
319 0.8% 96%  
320 0.2% 95%  
321 0.1% 95%  
322 1.4% 95%  
323 0.9% 94%  
324 0.2% 93%  
325 5% 92%  
326 0.3% 87% Majority
327 1.1% 87%  
328 0.2% 86%  
329 0.9% 86% Last Result
330 0.9% 85%  
331 0.3% 84%  
332 0.1% 84%  
333 0.7% 83%  
334 0.5% 83%  
335 2% 82%  
336 0.3% 80%  
337 1.1% 80%  
338 5% 79%  
339 8% 74%  
340 0.8% 66%  
341 2% 65%  
342 0.5% 63%  
343 0.7% 62%  
344 7% 61%  
345 2% 54%  
346 2% 53%  
347 1.2% 50%  
348 0.3% 49% Median
349 2% 49%  
350 2% 47%  
351 1.0% 45%  
352 2% 44%  
353 7% 42%  
354 6% 35%  
355 5% 28%  
356 3% 24%  
357 3% 21%  
358 0.5% 19%  
359 0.8% 18%  
360 4% 17%  
361 0.5% 13%  
362 3% 12%  
363 0.7% 10%  
364 2% 9%  
365 1.0% 7%  
366 0.6% 6%  
367 1.0% 5%  
368 0.6% 4%  
369 2% 4%  
370 0.8% 2%  
371 0% 1.1%  
372 0.2% 1.1%  
373 0.2% 1.0%  
374 0.1% 0.7%  
375 0% 0.7%  
376 0.4% 0.6%  
377 0% 0.2%  
378 0% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0.1% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.8%  
286 0% 99.8%  
287 0% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0% 99.7%  
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0.2% 99.6%  
292 0.5% 99.3%  
293 0.1% 98.9%  
294 0% 98.8%  
295 0.2% 98.8%  
296 0.2% 98.6%  
297 0.2% 98%  
298 0.1% 98%  
299 0.1% 98%  
300 0.1% 98%  
301 0.1% 98%  
302 0.1% 98%  
303 0.1% 98%  
304 0.1% 98%  
305 0.4% 98%  
306 2% 97%  
307 3% 95%  
308 0.4% 92%  
309 4% 92%  
310 0.5% 88%  
311 1.0% 87%  
312 0.1% 86%  
313 1.0% 86%  
314 0.3% 85%  
315 0.1% 85%  
316 0.5% 85%  
317 0.2% 84%  
318 0.3% 84%  
319 0.4% 84%  
320 0.5% 83%  
321 0.1% 83% Last Result
322 0.4% 83%  
323 1.0% 82%  
324 1.3% 81%  
325 13% 80%  
326 3% 68% Majority
327 9% 65%  
328 1.3% 56%  
329 2% 55%  
330 0.6% 53%  
331 0.5% 52%  
332 0.2% 52%  
333 0.5% 52%  
334 2% 51% Median
335 0.4% 50%  
336 1.1% 49%  
337 3% 48%  
338 1.1% 45%  
339 2% 44%  
340 6% 43%  
341 8% 36%  
342 2% 28%  
343 3% 27%  
344 2% 23%  
345 0.6% 21%  
346 3% 20%  
347 2% 17%  
348 1.2% 15%  
349 0.4% 14%  
350 6% 13%  
351 0.7% 7%  
352 0.7% 7%  
353 0.5% 6%  
354 2% 5%  
355 1.1% 4%  
356 0.2% 3%  
357 0.5% 2%  
358 0.2% 2%  
359 0.2% 2%  
360 0.2% 2%  
361 0.6% 1.4%  
362 0% 0.8%  
363 0.1% 0.7%  
364 0% 0.6%  
365 0.1% 0.6%  
366 0.3% 0.5%  
367 0% 0.2%  
368 0.1% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
280 0% 100%  
281 0.1% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.8%  
284 0% 99.8%  
285 0% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.8%  
287 0% 99.7%  
288 0.1% 99.6%  
289 0.2% 99.5%  
290 0.1% 99.3%  
291 0.5% 99.2%  
292 0.1% 98.7%  
293 0.1% 98.7%  
294 0.1% 98.6%  
295 0.2% 98%  
296 0.1% 98%  
297 0.2% 98%  
298 0.1% 98%  
299 0% 98%  
300 0.1% 98%  
301 0% 98%  
302 0.5% 98%  
303 2% 97%  
304 1.3% 95%  
305 1.1% 94%  
306 0.7% 93%  
307 0.7% 92%  
308 4% 91%  
309 0.1% 87%  
310 0.2% 87%  
311 1.0% 87%  
312 0.1% 86%  
313 1.2% 86%  
314 0.6% 85%  
315 0.2% 84%  
316 0.1% 84%  
317 0.2% 84% Last Result
318 0.5% 83%  
319 1.2% 83%  
320 0.8% 82%  
321 0.6% 81%  
322 5% 80%  
323 9% 75%  
324 1.3% 66%  
325 3% 65%  
326 7% 62% Majority
327 0.2% 55%  
328 0.5% 55%  
329 3% 54%  
330 0.7% 52%  
331 0.5% 51%  
332 1.1% 50% Median
333 2% 49%  
334 0.4% 47%  
335 0.8% 47%  
336 2% 46%  
337 3% 44%  
338 6% 40%  
339 9% 34%  
340 2% 25%  
341 2% 23%  
342 2% 21%  
343 1.1% 19%  
344 2% 18%  
345 0.3% 16%  
346 1.1% 16%  
347 2% 15%  
348 5% 13%  
349 0.6% 8%  
350 2% 7%  
351 0.4% 5%  
352 1.4% 5%  
353 1.3% 3%  
354 0.3% 2%  
355 0.1% 2%  
356 0.1% 2%  
357 0.1% 2%  
358 0.2% 2%  
359 0.7% 1.4%  
360 0% 0.7%  
361 0.1% 0.7%  
362 0.1% 0.6%  
363 0.1% 0.5%  
364 0% 0.4%  
365 0.1% 0.4%  
366 0.3% 0.3%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0.3% 99.9%  
266 0.1% 99.7%  
267 0% 99.6%  
268 0.1% 99.6%  
269 0.1% 99.5%  
270 0.1% 99.4%  
271 0% 99.3%  
272 0.7% 99.3%  
273 0.2% 98.6%  
274 0.1% 98%  
275 0.1% 98%  
276 0.2% 98%  
277 0.3% 98%  
278 1.3% 98%  
279 1.4% 97%  
280 0.4% 95%  
281 2% 95%  
282 0.6% 93%  
283 5% 92%  
284 2% 87%  
285 1.0% 85%  
286 0.5% 84%  
287 2% 83%  
288 1.3% 82%  
289 2% 80%  
290 2% 79%  
291 2% 77%  
292 9% 75%  
293 6% 66%  
294 5% 60%  
295 0.7% 55%  
296 0.8% 54%  
297 0.5% 53% Median
298 2% 53%  
299 1.0% 51%  
300 0.6% 50%  
301 0.6% 49%  
302 3% 48%  
303 0.5% 46%  
304 0.2% 45%  
305 7% 45%  
306 3% 38%  
307 1.1% 35%  
308 9% 34%  
309 5% 25%  
310 1.3% 20%  
311 0.3% 19%  
312 1.2% 18%  
313 0.6% 17% Last Result
314 0.2% 17%  
315 0.2% 16%  
316 0.2% 16%  
317 0.6% 16%  
318 1.2% 15%  
319 0.1% 14%  
320 1.1% 14%  
321 0.2% 13%  
322 0% 13%  
323 4% 13%  
324 0.4% 8%  
325 1.1% 8%  
326 0.7% 7% Majority
327 1.3% 6%  
328 2% 5%  
329 0.4% 3%  
330 0% 2%  
331 0.1% 2%  
332 0.1% 2%  
333 0.1% 2%  
334 0.2% 2%  
335 0.1% 2%  
336 0.4% 2%  
337 0% 1.4%  
338 0.1% 1.4%  
339 0.1% 1.3%  
340 0.5% 1.3%  
341 0.1% 0.8%  
342 0.2% 0.7%  
343 0.1% 0.5%  
344 0.1% 0.4%  
345 0% 0.3%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0.1% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0.1% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.8%  
265 0.3% 99.8%  
266 0.1% 99.5%  
267 0% 99.4%  
268 0.1% 99.4%  
269 0% 99.3%  
270 0.6% 99.2%  
271 0.2% 98.6%  
272 0.2% 98%  
273 0.2% 98%  
274 0.6% 98%  
275 0.2% 98%  
276 1.2% 97%  
277 2% 96%  
278 0.5% 95%  
279 1.0% 94%  
280 0.5% 93%  
281 6% 93%  
282 0.9% 87%  
283 0.8% 86%  
284 2% 85%  
285 3% 83%  
286 0.6% 80%  
287 2% 79%  
288 4% 77%  
289 2% 73%  
290 9% 71%  
291 5% 62%  
292 2% 57%  
293 0.7% 55%  
294 3% 55%  
295 1.0% 52% Median
296 0.5% 51%  
297 1.3% 50%  
298 0.4% 49%  
299 0.2% 48%  
300 0.5% 48%  
301 0.6% 48%  
302 3% 47%  
303 0.9% 44%  
304 9% 43%  
305 2% 35%  
306 13% 32%  
307 0.7% 19%  
308 0.9% 19%  
309 0.4% 18% Last Result
310 0.2% 17%  
311 0.4% 17%  
312 0.4% 17%  
313 0.3% 16%  
314 0.2% 16%  
315 0.5% 16%  
316 0.2% 15%  
317 0.3% 15%  
318 1.0% 15%  
319 0.1% 14%  
320 1.3% 14%  
321 0.4% 13%  
322 4% 12%  
323 0.5% 8%  
324 3% 8%  
325 2% 5%  
326 0.4% 3% Majority
327 0.1% 2%  
328 0.1% 2%  
329 0.1% 2%  
330 0% 2%  
331 0.1% 2%  
332 0.2% 2%  
333 0% 2%  
334 0.2% 2%  
335 0.2% 2%  
336 0.2% 1.4%  
337 0% 1.2%  
338 0.1% 1.2%  
339 0.5% 1.1%  
340 0.2% 0.7%  
341 0.1% 0.4%  
342 0.1% 0.3%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0.1% 100%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.8%  
240 0.1% 99.8%  
241 0% 99.7%  
242 0% 99.7%  
243 0% 99.7%  
244 0.1% 99.7%  
245 0.1% 99.6%  
246 0.5% 99.5%  
247 0.2% 99.0%  
248 0.3% 98.8%  
249 0.7% 98%  
250 0.2% 98%  
251 0.1% 98%  
252 0.4% 97%  
253 0.2% 97%  
254 0.1% 97%  
255 0.5% 97%  
256 0.1% 96%  
257 1.4% 96%  
258 2% 95%  
259 2% 93%  
260 0.3% 91%  
261 0.3% 90%  
262 0.7% 90%  
263 0.9% 89%  
264 1.1% 89%  
265 2% 87%  
266 1.3% 85%  
267 0.6% 84%  
268 1.3% 83%  
269 6% 82%  
270 0.9% 77%  
271 0.7% 76%  
272 4% 75%  
273 2% 71%  
274 0.7% 70%  
275 0.6% 69%  
276 0.7% 68%  
277 1.3% 68%  
278 2% 66% Last Result
279 0.7% 65%  
280 2% 64%  
281 2% 62%  
282 10% 60%  
283 0.3% 50%  
284 0.5% 49% Median
285 1.1% 49%  
286 1.2% 48%  
287 3% 47%  
288 4% 43%  
289 2% 40%  
290 4% 38%  
291 0.7% 33%  
292 1.4% 33%  
293 0% 31%  
294 0.1% 31%  
295 1.0% 31%  
296 0.1% 30%  
297 2% 30%  
298 0.1% 28%  
299 0.7% 27%  
300 7% 27%  
301 1.4% 20%  
302 0% 18%  
303 0.8% 18%  
304 0% 17%  
305 0.1% 17%  
306 4% 17%  
307 0.9% 13%  
308 0.4% 12%  
309 0.9% 12%  
310 4% 11%  
311 0.8% 7%  
312 0.1% 6%  
313 0.1% 6%  
314 0.1% 6%  
315 0.2% 6%  
316 0% 6%  
317 0.1% 6%  
318 0.1% 5%  
319 2% 5%  
320 0.1% 3%  
321 0% 3%  
322 0.3% 3%  
323 1.2% 3%  
324 0.1% 2%  
325 0.1% 2%  
326 0.6% 2% Majority
327 0.1% 1.2%  
328 0% 1.1%  
329 0.1% 1.1%  
330 0% 1.0%  
331 0% 0.9%  
332 0.1% 0.9%  
333 0.3% 0.8%  
334 0.1% 0.5%  
335 0% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0.1% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0.1% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0.1% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.8%  
236 0.1% 99.8%  
237 0% 99.8%  
238 0% 99.8%  
239 0% 99.7%  
240 0.1% 99.7%  
241 0% 99.7%  
242 0.3% 99.6%  
243 0% 99.3%  
244 0.4% 99.3%  
245 0.1% 98.9%  
246 1.0% 98.8%  
247 0.2% 98%  
248 0.6% 98%  
249 0.1% 97%  
250 0.1% 97%  
251 0.1% 97%  
252 0.4% 97%  
253 1.5% 96%  
254 1.2% 95%  
255 0.7% 94%  
256 0.2% 93%  
257 2% 93%  
258 1.2% 91%  
259 0.8% 90%  
260 1.5% 89%  
261 0.7% 88%  
262 1.2% 87%  
263 0.3% 86%  
264 1.1% 86%  
265 0.7% 84%  
266 2% 84%  
267 6% 81%  
268 0.7% 75%  
269 0.6% 75%  
270 4% 74%  
271 1.0% 70%  
272 1.1% 69%  
273 1.5% 68%  
274 0.5% 67% Last Result
275 0.4% 66%  
276 0.2% 66%  
277 0.8% 66%  
278 2% 65%  
279 2% 63%  
280 12% 61%  
281 1.0% 49%  
282 0.7% 48% Median
283 0.7% 48%  
284 2% 47%  
285 2% 45%  
286 1.1% 43%  
287 3% 42%  
288 6% 38%  
289 0.5% 32%  
290 0.1% 32%  
291 0.4% 31%  
292 0.5% 31%  
293 0.1% 31%  
294 0.2% 30%  
295 3% 30%  
296 0.5% 28%  
297 0.1% 27%  
298 1.4% 27%  
299 7% 26%  
300 0.4% 19%  
301 0.9% 18%  
302 0.1% 17%  
303 4% 17%  
304 0.7% 13%  
305 0.5% 13%  
306 0.1% 12%  
307 0.4% 12%  
308 0.2% 12%  
309 5% 11%  
310 0% 6%  
311 0% 6%  
312 0% 6%  
313 0.1% 6%  
314 0.1% 6%  
315 1.3% 6%  
316 0.1% 4%  
317 0.1% 4%  
318 0.7% 4%  
319 0% 3%  
320 0% 3%  
321 1.4% 3%  
322 0.3% 2%  
323 0.1% 2%  
324 0.1% 2%  
325 0.3% 1.4%  
326 0% 1.0% Majority
327 0.1% 1.0%  
328 0% 1.0%  
329 0% 0.9%  
330 0% 0.9%  
331 0.2% 0.9%  
332 0.2% 0.7%  
333 0.1% 0.4%  
334 0% 0.3%  
335 0.1% 0.3%  
336 0.1% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0.1% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100%  
251 0.1% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.8%  
253 0% 99.8%  
254 0% 99.8%  
255 0.4% 99.8%  
256 0% 99.4%  
257 0.1% 99.3%  
258 0.2% 99.3%  
259 0.2% 99.0%  
260 0% 98.9%  
261 0.8% 98.9%  
262 2% 98%  
263 0.6% 96%  
264 1.0% 96%  
265 0.6% 95%  
266 1.0% 94%  
267 2% 93%  
268 0.6% 91%  
269 2% 90%  
270 1.0% 88%  
271 4% 87%  
272 0.9% 83%  
273 0.5% 82%  
274 3% 81%  
275 3% 79%  
276 5% 76%  
277 6% 71%  
278 8% 65%  
279 1.2% 57%  
280 1.1% 56%  
281 2% 55% Median
282 1.5% 53%  
283 0.3% 51%  
284 1.2% 51%  
285 2% 50%  
286 2% 47%  
287 7% 45%  
288 0.6% 38%  
289 0.2% 38%  
290 2% 37%  
291 0.7% 35%  
292 8% 34%  
293 6% 26%  
294 0.6% 21%  
295 0.2% 20%  
296 2% 20%  
297 0.5% 18%  
298 0.7% 17%  
299 0.2% 17%  
300 0.3% 16%  
301 0.9% 16% Last Result
302 1.0% 15%  
303 0.2% 14%  
304 1.2% 14%  
305 0.6% 13%  
306 5% 12%  
307 0.2% 8%  
308 0.9% 7%  
309 1.4% 6%  
310 0.2% 5%  
311 0.1% 5%  
312 0.8% 5%  
313 2% 4%  
314 0.2% 2%  
315 0% 2%  
316 0% 2%  
317 0.1% 2%  
318 0.1% 2%  
319 0.2% 2%  
320 0.4% 2%  
321 0.2% 1.4%  
322 0.1% 1.2%  
323 0.2% 1.1%  
324 0.2% 0.8%  
325 0.3% 0.7%  
326 0.1% 0.3% Majority
327 0.1% 0.3%  
328 0% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.8%  
251 0% 99.8%  
252 0% 99.7%  
253 0.2% 99.7%  
254 0.1% 99.6%  
255 0.2% 99.5%  
256 0.2% 99.2%  
257 0% 99.1%  
258 0.3% 99.1%  
259 1.3% 98.7%  
260 2% 97%  
261 0.2% 95%  
262 0.2% 95%  
263 0.6% 95%  
264 0.9% 94%  
265 0.7% 93%  
266 1.4% 93%  
267 5% 91%  
268 1.3% 87%  
269 3% 85%  
270 0.7% 82%  
271 5% 82%  
272 1.1% 77%  
273 3% 76%  
274 3% 73%  
275 6% 70%  
276 7% 64%  
277 3% 56%  
278 0.7% 53%  
279 0.5% 52% Median
280 0.7% 52%  
281 0.3% 51%  
282 1.3% 51%  
283 1.0% 49%  
284 1.2% 48%  
285 3% 47%  
286 7% 45%  
287 0.2% 38%  
288 3% 37%  
289 1.4% 35%  
290 12% 33%  
291 1.1% 22%  
292 2% 20%  
293 0.6% 18%  
294 0.8% 18%  
295 0.4% 17%  
296 0.2% 17%  
297 0.1% 16% Last Result
298 0.1% 16%  
299 0% 16%  
300 0.3% 16%  
301 0.9% 16%  
302 1.4% 15%  
303 1.1% 14%  
304 0.8% 12%  
305 4% 12%  
306 0.3% 7%  
307 2% 7%  
308 0.6% 5%  
309 1.2% 4%  
310 0.6% 3%  
311 0.1% 2%  
312 0% 2%  
313 0.1% 2%  
314 0.1% 2%  
315 0% 2%  
316 0.2% 2%  
317 0.1% 2%  
318 0.1% 2%  
319 0.3% 2%  
320 0.1% 1.3%  
321 0.4% 1.2%  
322 0.2% 0.8%  
323 0.4% 0.6%  
324 0% 0.3%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.2% Majority
327 0% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0.1% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.8%  
226 0% 99.8%  
227 0% 99.8%  
228 0% 99.7%  
229 0.5% 99.7%  
230 0.2% 99.2%  
231 0.3% 99.0%  
232 0.1% 98.7%  
233 0.2% 98.6%  
234 0.1% 98%  
235 0.6% 98%  
236 0.6% 98%  
237 0.1% 97%  
238 0.1% 97%  
239 0.1% 97%  
240 2% 97%  
241 0.3% 95%  
242 2% 95%  
243 0.7% 93%  
244 0.4% 93%  
245 1.1% 92%  
246 1.4% 91%  
247 0.2% 90%  
248 2% 89%  
249 2% 88%  
250 0.4% 85%  
251 0.4% 85%  
252 0.2% 85%  
253 2% 84%  
254 0.9% 83%  
255 7% 82%  
256 2% 74%  
257 0.4% 73%  
258 2% 72%  
259 1.0% 70%  
260 0.1% 69%  
261 2% 69%  
262 1.1% 67%  
263 2% 66%  
264 2% 64%  
265 0.2% 61%  
266 8% 61% Last Result
267 1.1% 53%  
268 2% 52% Median
269 2% 50%  
270 4% 49%  
271 2% 44%  
272 0.8% 42%  
273 1.0% 42%  
274 4% 41%  
275 3% 36%  
276 0.5% 34%  
277 0.5% 33%  
278 0.8% 33%  
279 2% 32%  
280 0.2% 30%  
281 3% 30%  
282 7% 27%  
283 0.6% 20%  
284 0.4% 20%  
285 0.8% 19%  
286 0.3% 18%  
287 0.5% 18%  
288 0.4% 18%  
289 0.2% 17%  
290 4% 17%  
291 0.8% 13%  
292 0.1% 12%  
293 5% 12%  
294 0% 7%  
295 0.1% 7%  
296 0.4% 7%  
297 0.1% 6%  
298 0.8% 6%  
299 0.1% 6%  
300 0.5% 5%  
301 0.2% 5%  
302 0.3% 5%  
303 0.1% 5%  
304 1.2% 4%  
305 1.2% 3%  
306 0.3% 2%  
307 0% 2%  
308 0.1% 2%  
309 0.2% 2%  
310 0.3% 1.5%  
311 0% 1.1%  
312 0% 1.1%  
313 0.1% 1.1%  
314 0% 0.9%  
315 0% 0.9%  
316 0.3% 0.9%  
317 0.1% 0.6%  
318 0% 0.5%  
319 0.1% 0.4%  
320 0.1% 0.3%  
321 0.1% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0.1% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.8%  
225 0% 99.8%  
226 0.2% 99.7%  
227 0.2% 99.5%  
228 0.2% 99.3%  
229 0.6% 99.2%  
230 0.1% 98.6%  
231 0.2% 98%  
232 0.6% 98%  
233 0.5% 98%  
234 0.1% 97%  
235 0% 97%  
236 1.5% 97%  
237 0.3% 96%  
238 0.4% 95%  
239 0.6% 95%  
240 2% 94%  
241 0.9% 93%  
242 1.2% 92%  
243 0.3% 91%  
244 2% 90%  
245 0.4% 88%  
246 0.7% 88%  
247 0.9% 87%  
248 1.1% 86%  
249 2% 85%  
250 0.5% 84%  
251 0.7% 83%  
252 1.3% 82%  
253 8% 81%  
254 1.4% 73%  
255 1.0% 72%  
256 2% 71%  
257 2% 69%  
258 0.4% 67%  
259 0.5% 67%  
260 0.5% 67%  
261 0.9% 66%  
262 0.4% 65% Last Result
263 3% 65%  
264 11% 62%  
265 1.1% 51%  
266 0.3% 50% Median
267 0.6% 50%  
268 3% 49%  
269 2% 46%  
270 2% 44%  
271 3% 41%  
272 5% 39%  
273 0.4% 34%  
274 0.5% 33%  
275 2% 33%  
276 0.1% 31%  
277 0.3% 31%  
278 0.8% 31%  
279 2% 30%  
280 1.0% 28%  
281 7% 27%  
282 0.9% 20%  
283 0.9% 19%  
284 0.9% 18%  
285 0.3% 17%  
286 0.2% 17%  
287 4% 17%  
288 0.6% 13%  
289 0.6% 12%  
290 0% 12%  
291 0.1% 12%  
292 4% 12%  
293 1.1% 7%  
294 0.1% 6%  
295 0.1% 6%  
296 0% 6%  
297 0.7% 6%  
298 0.4% 5%  
299 0.1% 5%  
300 1.3% 5%  
301 0.4% 4%  
302 0.1% 3%  
303 1.2% 3%  
304 0.1% 2%  
305 0.2% 2%  
306 0.3% 2%  
307 0.1% 1.4%  
308 0% 1.2%  
309 0.1% 1.2%  
310 0.1% 1.0%  
311 0% 1.0%  
312 0% 0.9%  
313 0% 0.9%  
314 0.2% 0.9%  
315 0% 0.7%  
316 0.3% 0.7%  
317 0% 0.4%  
318 0.1% 0.4%  
319 0.1% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations