Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 26–27 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 40.0% 42.0% 40.5–43.6% 40.0–44.0% 39.6–44.4% 38.9–45.1%
Conservative Party 42.4% 41.0% 39.4–42.5% 39.0–43.0% 38.6–43.4% 37.9–44.1%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 7.0% 6.2–7.8% 6.0–8.1% 5.9–8.3% 5.5–8.7%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.4% 2.9–4.1% 2.8–4.3% 2.7–4.4% 2.4–4.8%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.3%
Green Party 1.6% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.2–3.0%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 262 287 263–309 252–310 250–317 241–326
Conservative Party 317 290 269–309 262–323 259–329 254–335
Liberal Democrats 12 11 5–15 4–15 3–16 2–18
Scottish National Party 35 43 28–54 22–54 16–55 7–57
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 4 2–5 1–5 1–5 0–5

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
238 0% 100%  
239 0.1% 99.9%  
240 0.2% 99.8%  
241 0.1% 99.6%  
242 0.1% 99.5%  
243 0% 99.4%  
244 0% 99.4%  
245 0% 99.4%  
246 0% 99.4%  
247 0.1% 99.3%  
248 1.3% 99.2%  
249 0.1% 98%  
250 2% 98%  
251 0.8% 96%  
252 0.3% 95%  
253 0.1% 95%  
254 0% 95%  
255 0% 95%  
256 0% 95%  
257 0.3% 95%  
258 0% 94%  
259 0.1% 94%  
260 0.5% 94%  
261 0.3% 94%  
262 1.4% 93% Last Result
263 3% 92%  
264 1.3% 89%  
265 0.1% 87%  
266 0.8% 87%  
267 0.6% 86%  
268 0.3% 86%  
269 0.1% 85%  
270 0.1% 85%  
271 0.1% 85%  
272 0.3% 85%  
273 0.2% 85%  
274 0.5% 85%  
275 0.9% 84%  
276 0.7% 83%  
277 13% 83%  
278 1.2% 69%  
279 1.0% 68%  
280 11% 67%  
281 0.1% 56%  
282 2% 56%  
283 0.1% 55%  
284 0.8% 55%  
285 0.1% 54%  
286 1.1% 54%  
287 8% 53% Median
288 1.3% 44%  
289 0.1% 43%  
290 4% 43%  
291 1.5% 39%  
292 4% 37%  
293 5% 33%  
294 2% 28%  
295 0.3% 26%  
296 2% 26%  
297 1.5% 24%  
298 0.8% 23%  
299 4% 22%  
300 0.1% 18%  
301 0.5% 17%  
302 1.2% 17%  
303 0.5% 16%  
304 2% 15%  
305 0.3% 14%  
306 2% 13%  
307 0.1% 12%  
308 0.2% 11%  
309 4% 11%  
310 3% 7%  
311 0.4% 5%  
312 0.1% 4%  
313 0.1% 4%  
314 1.2% 4%  
315 0.3% 3%  
316 0.1% 3%  
317 0.4% 3%  
318 0.9% 2%  
319 0.1% 1.3%  
320 0.2% 1.3%  
321 0.1% 1.1%  
322 0% 1.0%  
323 0% 0.9%  
324 0.1% 0.9%  
325 0.3% 0.8%  
326 0% 0.5% Majority
327 0% 0.5%  
328 0% 0.5%  
329 0% 0.4%  
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.3%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0.1% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0.2% 99.9%  
251 0.1% 99.7%  
252 0% 99.7%  
253 0.1% 99.6%  
254 0.1% 99.5%  
255 0.1% 99.4%  
256 0% 99.3%  
257 0.1% 99.3%  
258 0.4% 99.2%  
259 2% 98.8%  
260 0.1% 97%  
261 1.3% 97%  
262 1.3% 96%  
263 0.3% 94%  
264 0.5% 94%  
265 0.6% 94%  
266 0.7% 93%  
267 1.0% 92%  
268 1.3% 91%  
269 0.4% 90%  
270 0.3% 90%  
271 1.4% 89%  
272 2% 88%  
273 0.7% 86%  
274 4% 85%  
275 6% 81%  
276 0.5% 75%  
277 1.1% 75%  
278 6% 74%  
279 3% 68%  
280 0.3% 65%  
281 6% 64%  
282 0.2% 59%  
283 0.8% 58%  
284 4% 58%  
285 1.3% 54%  
286 1.1% 53%  
287 0.3% 52%  
288 0.8% 51%  
289 0.2% 51%  
290 4% 50% Median
291 0.3% 47%  
292 0.2% 46%  
293 1.3% 46%  
294 0.6% 45%  
295 1.4% 44%  
296 13% 43%  
297 0.3% 30%  
298 0.3% 30%  
299 0.4% 29%  
300 0.1% 29%  
301 12% 29%  
302 0.9% 16%  
303 3% 16%  
304 0.2% 13%  
305 0.3% 13%  
306 0.7% 12%  
307 0.9% 12%  
308 0.6% 11%  
309 0.7% 10%  
310 0.4% 9%  
311 0.2% 9%  
312 0.2% 9%  
313 0.5% 9%  
314 0.3% 8%  
315 0.1% 8%  
316 0.3% 8%  
317 0.3% 7% Last Result
318 0.7% 7%  
319 0.3% 6%  
320 0.1% 6%  
321 0.5% 6%  
322 0.1% 5%  
323 1.4% 5%  
324 0.4% 4%  
325 0% 4%  
326 0.1% 3% Majority
327 0% 3%  
328 0% 3%  
329 2% 3%  
330 0.7% 1.3%  
331 0% 0.6%  
332 0% 0.6%  
333 0% 0.6%  
334 0% 0.5%  
335 0.1% 0.5%  
336 0% 0.4%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.3%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0.1% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 1.2% 99.9%  
3 3% 98.7%  
4 1.0% 95%  
5 9% 94%  
6 3% 85%  
7 4% 82%  
8 13% 78%  
9 5% 65%  
10 1.4% 60%  
11 23% 59% Median
12 8% 36% Last Result
13 4% 28%  
14 10% 24%  
15 10% 14%  
16 3% 4%  
17 0.6% 1.2%  
18 0.3% 0.5%  
19 0.1% 0.3%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0.1% 99.9%  
6 0.1% 99.8%  
7 0.3% 99.7%  
8 0.4% 99.5%  
9 0.3% 99.1%  
10 0.2% 98.8%  
11 0.4% 98.6%  
12 0% 98%  
13 0.3% 98%  
14 0.1% 98%  
15 0% 98%  
16 1.2% 98%  
17 0.1% 96%  
18 0.1% 96%  
19 0.3% 96%  
20 0.1% 96%  
21 0.3% 96%  
22 0.7% 96%  
23 0.3% 95%  
24 0.3% 95%  
25 2% 94%  
26 0.3% 92%  
27 0.5% 91%  
28 2% 91%  
29 6% 89%  
30 0.4% 83%  
31 0.4% 83%  
32 0.1% 82%  
33 0.2% 82%  
34 0.3% 82%  
35 1.4% 82% Last Result
36 2% 80%  
37 0.4% 79%  
38 1.3% 78%  
39 11% 77%  
40 2% 66%  
41 3% 64%  
42 0.6% 62%  
43 13% 61% Median
44 1.1% 48%  
45 8% 47%  
46 0.6% 39%  
47 4% 39%  
48 2% 35%  
49 5% 33%  
50 4% 28%  
51 2% 23%  
52 2% 22%  
53 3% 19%  
54 12% 16%  
55 2% 4%  
56 1.0% 2%  
57 0.2% 0.7%  
58 0.5% 0.5%  
59 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100%  
1 7% 99.1%  
2 5% 92%  
3 14% 87%  
4 60% 72% Last Result, Median
5 12% 12%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 337 73% 310–356 306–367 301–378 290–381
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 334 61% 306–352 302–364 297–374 285–377
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 341 88% 322–362 308–369 302–372 296–377
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 337 84% 319–358 305–365 298–368 292–373
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 332 55% 314–349 302–355 298–360 286–365
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 327 52% 310–347 298–352 295–355 282–361
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 297 9% 278–325 267–329 257–334 254–346
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 299 8% 282–317 276–329 271–333 266–344
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 294 5% 273–312 266–326 263–333 258–339
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 294 4% 275–321 264–325 253–330 250–341
Conservative Party 317 290 3% 269–309 262–323 259–329 254–335
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 291 0.9% 267–313 255–314 254–320 245–330
Labour Party 262 287 0.5% 263–309 252–310 250–317 241–326

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.9%  
283 0.2% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.7%  
285 0% 99.7%  
286 0% 99.7%  
287 0.1% 99.7%  
288 0% 99.6%  
289 0% 99.5%  
290 0.3% 99.5%  
291 0% 99.3%  
292 0% 99.2%  
293 0.1% 99.2%  
294 0% 99.1%  
295 0.1% 99.1%  
296 0.2% 99.0%  
297 0% 98.8%  
298 0.9% 98.7%  
299 0% 98%  
300 0.3% 98%  
301 1.2% 98%  
302 0.1% 96%  
303 0.1% 96%  
304 0% 96%  
305 0.5% 96%  
306 1.2% 96%  
307 0.1% 94%  
308 3% 94%  
309 0.3% 91%  
310 2% 91%  
311 0.3% 89%  
312 1.4% 89%  
313 0.2% 87%  
314 0.3% 87%  
315 3% 87%  
316 0.3% 84%  
317 2% 83%  
318 0.2% 81%  
319 0.9% 81%  
320 0.1% 80%  
321 3% 80%  
322 2% 78%  
323 0.4% 76%  
324 1.4% 75%  
325 0.5% 74%  
326 1.1% 73% Majority
327 9% 72%  
328 0.9% 63%  
329 1.0% 62%  
330 0.2% 61%  
331 2% 61%  
332 0.9% 59%  
333 0.8% 58%  
334 2% 57%  
335 3% 55%  
336 0.2% 52%  
337 3% 52% Median
338 0.1% 49%  
339 6% 49%  
340 0.4% 44%  
341 0.3% 43%  
342 0.4% 43%  
343 24% 42%  
344 2% 19%  
345 0.1% 17%  
346 0.4% 17%  
347 0.2% 16%  
348 0.4% 16%  
349 0.3% 16%  
350 0.7% 15%  
351 0.5% 15%  
352 0.2% 14%  
353 0.3% 14%  
354 3% 14%  
355 0.4% 11%  
356 0.9% 11% Last Result
357 0.2% 10%  
358 0.1% 10%  
359 0.3% 9%  
360 0.4% 9%  
361 0.3% 9%  
362 1.2% 8%  
363 0.2% 7%  
364 0.6% 7%  
365 0.2% 6%  
366 0.8% 6%  
367 0.6% 6%  
368 0% 5%  
369 0.1% 5%  
370 0% 5%  
371 0.1% 5%  
372 0% 5%  
373 0% 5%  
374 0% 5%  
375 0.1% 5%  
376 0.1% 4%  
377 0.6% 4%  
378 3% 4%  
379 0.1% 0.7%  
380 0% 0.6%  
381 0.1% 0.6%  
382 0.1% 0.4%  
383 0% 0.3%  
384 0% 0.3%  
385 0.2% 0.3%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
278 0% 100%  
279 0.2% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.7%  
281 0% 99.7%  
282 0% 99.7%  
283 0.1% 99.7%  
284 0% 99.6%  
285 0.1% 99.6%  
286 0.2% 99.5%  
287 0% 99.3%  
288 0% 99.3%  
289 0.1% 99.2%  
290 0.1% 99.1%  
291 0.1% 99.1%  
292 0.2% 99.0%  
293 0% 98.8%  
294 0% 98.8%  
295 0% 98.7%  
296 1.1% 98.7%  
297 0.1% 98%  
298 0.1% 97%  
299 0.1% 97%  
300 1.2% 97%  
301 0.2% 96%  
302 2% 96%  
303 0% 94%  
304 4% 94%  
305 0.1% 91%  
306 2% 91%  
307 0.1% 89%  
308 0.2% 89%  
309 0.3% 89%  
310 2% 88%  
311 2% 86%  
312 0.7% 84%  
313 2% 83%  
314 0.1% 81%  
315 0.7% 81%  
316 0.3% 81%  
317 0.8% 80%  
318 2% 79%  
319 1.3% 78%  
320 2% 76%  
321 0.2% 74%  
322 1.0% 74%  
323 9% 73%  
324 2% 63%  
325 0.4% 61%  
326 0.3% 61% Majority
327 0.8% 61%  
328 1.0% 60%  
329 0.8% 59%  
330 3% 58%  
331 0.3% 55%  
332 0.3% 54%  
333 3% 54% Median
334 2% 51%  
335 6% 49%  
336 0.3% 43%  
337 0.5% 43%  
338 0.5% 43%  
339 13% 42%  
340 11% 29%  
341 0.1% 18%  
342 2% 18%  
343 0.1% 16%  
344 0.3% 16%  
345 0.3% 16%  
346 0.6% 16%  
347 0.4% 15%  
348 0.2% 15%  
349 0.7% 14%  
350 3% 14%  
351 0.1% 11%  
352 1.1% 11% Last Result
353 0.4% 10%  
354 0% 10%  
355 0.1% 10%  
356 0.4% 9%  
357 0.4% 9%  
358 1.4% 9%  
359 0.4% 7%  
360 0.4% 7%  
361 0.4% 6%  
362 0.1% 6%  
363 0.9% 6%  
364 0% 5%  
365 0.2% 5%  
366 0% 5%  
367 0.1% 5%  
368 0% 5%  
369 0% 5%  
370 0% 5%  
371 0.2% 5%  
372 0.1% 4%  
373 1.2% 4%  
374 2% 3%  
375 0% 0.6%  
376 0.1% 0.6%  
377 0.1% 0.5%  
378 0.1% 0.4%  
379 0% 0.3%  
380 0% 0.3%  
381 0.2% 0.3%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
287 0.1% 100%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.8%  
293 0.1% 99.7%  
294 0.1% 99.7%  
295 0% 99.6%  
296 0.1% 99.6%  
297 0% 99.5%  
298 0% 99.5%  
299 0% 99.4%  
300 0.1% 99.4%  
301 0.7% 99.4%  
302 2% 98.7%  
303 0% 97%  
304 0% 97%  
305 0.1% 97%  
306 0% 97%  
307 0.4% 96%  
308 1.4% 96%  
309 0% 95%  
310 0.5% 95%  
311 0.1% 94%  
312 0.3% 94%  
313 0.7% 94% Last Result
314 0.3% 93%  
315 0.3% 93%  
316 0.1% 92%  
317 0.3% 92%  
318 0.5% 92%  
319 0.2% 91%  
320 0.2% 91%  
321 0.5% 91%  
322 0.6% 91%  
323 0.7% 90%  
324 1.0% 89%  
325 0.6% 88%  
326 0.4% 88% Majority
327 0.1% 87%  
328 3% 87%  
329 0.9% 84%  
330 12% 83%  
331 0.1% 71%  
332 0.4% 71%  
333 0.3% 71%  
334 0.3% 70%  
335 13% 70%  
336 1.4% 57%  
337 0.6% 56%  
338 1.3% 55%  
339 0.2% 54%  
340 0.3% 54%  
341 4% 53%  
342 0.2% 50%  
343 0.8% 49%  
344 0.3% 49%  
345 1.1% 48% Median
346 1.3% 47%  
347 4% 46%  
348 0.8% 42%  
349 0.1% 42%  
350 6% 41%  
351 0.4% 36%  
352 3% 35%  
353 6% 32%  
354 1.0% 26%  
355 0.5% 25%  
356 6% 25%  
357 4% 19%  
358 0.7% 15%  
359 2% 14%  
360 1.4% 12%  
361 0.3% 11%  
362 0.4% 10%  
363 1.3% 10%  
364 1.1% 9%  
365 0.7% 8%  
366 0.5% 7%  
367 0.5% 6%  
368 0.3% 6%  
369 1.3% 6%  
370 1.3% 4%  
371 0.1% 3%  
372 2% 3%  
373 0.4% 1.2%  
374 0.1% 0.8%  
375 0% 0.7%  
376 0.1% 0.7%  
377 0.1% 0.6%  
378 0.1% 0.5%  
379 0% 0.4%  
380 0.1% 0.3%  
381 0.2% 0.3%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0.1% 100%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0.1% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0% 99.7%  
289 0.1% 99.7%  
290 0.1% 99.6%  
291 0.1% 99.6%  
292 0% 99.5%  
293 0% 99.5%  
294 0% 99.5%  
295 0% 99.4%  
296 0% 99.4%  
297 0.1% 99.4%  
298 3% 99.3%  
299 0% 97%  
300 0% 97%  
301 0% 97%  
302 0.1% 97%  
303 1.4% 97%  
304 0.1% 95%  
305 0.4% 95%  
306 0.5% 95%  
307 0.3% 94%  
308 0.1% 94%  
309 0.3% 94% Last Result
310 0.9% 94%  
311 0.2% 93%  
312 0% 92%  
313 0.4% 92%  
314 0.3% 92%  
315 0.5% 92%  
316 0% 91%  
317 0.1% 91%  
318 0.6% 91%  
319 1.1% 90%  
320 0.7% 89%  
321 0.8% 89%  
322 0.2% 88%  
323 0.5% 88%  
324 3% 87%  
325 0.9% 85%  
326 0.5% 84% Majority
327 11% 83%  
328 0.5% 72%  
329 2% 72%  
330 0.1% 70%  
331 13% 70%  
332 1.4% 57%  
333 0.5% 56%  
334 1.4% 55%  
335 0.2% 54%  
336 2% 54%  
337 3% 52%  
338 0.2% 50%  
339 0.2% 49%  
340 0.1% 49%  
341 3% 49% Median
342 0.5% 46%  
343 0.8% 46%  
344 0.2% 45%  
345 0.1% 45%  
346 9% 45%  
347 0.6% 36%  
348 3% 35%  
349 6% 32%  
350 0.9% 27%  
351 1.0% 26%  
352 4% 25%  
353 4% 20%  
354 0.7% 16%  
355 5% 16%  
356 0.6% 11%  
357 0.1% 11%  
358 0.5% 10%  
359 1.1% 10%  
360 0.1% 9%  
361 0.2% 9%  
362 2% 9%  
363 0.6% 7%  
364 0.3% 6%  
365 1.4% 6%  
366 0.1% 4%  
367 0.1% 4%  
368 3% 4%  
369 0.4% 1.2%  
370 0.1% 0.8%  
371 0% 0.7%  
372 0.2% 0.7%  
373 0% 0.5%  
374 0% 0.5%  
375 0.1% 0.5%  
376 0.1% 0.4%  
377 0.2% 0.3%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0.1% 0.1%  
381 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
280 0.1% 100%  
281 0.1% 99.8%  
282 0% 99.8%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.7%  
285 0% 99.6%  
286 0.1% 99.6%  
287 0% 99.5%  
288 0.1% 99.5%  
289 0.1% 99.4%  
290 0% 99.3%  
291 0.4% 99.3%  
292 0% 98.9%  
293 0% 98.9%  
294 0.1% 98.9%  
295 0.3% 98.8%  
296 0.3% 98%  
297 0% 98%  
298 0.7% 98%  
299 2% 97%  
300 0.1% 96%  
301 0.2% 96% Last Result
302 0.5% 95%  
303 1.5% 95%  
304 0.8% 93%  
305 0.4% 93%  
306 0.1% 92%  
307 0.3% 92%  
308 0.2% 92%  
309 0.4% 92%  
310 0.3% 91%  
311 0.2% 91%  
312 0.3% 91%  
313 0% 90%  
314 3% 90%  
315 0.2% 88%  
316 0.9% 88%  
317 0.8% 87%  
318 0.3% 86%  
319 1.5% 86%  
320 0.8% 84%  
321 3% 83%  
322 11% 80%  
323 0.4% 69%  
324 14% 69%  
325 0% 55%  
326 2% 55% Majority
327 1.1% 54%  
328 0.5% 53%  
329 0.4% 52%  
330 1.3% 52%  
331 0.5% 51%  
332 1.2% 50%  
333 0.6% 49%  
334 0.6% 48% Median
335 0.9% 48%  
336 3% 47%  
337 0.6% 44%  
338 0% 43%  
339 0.8% 43%  
340 2% 42%  
341 2% 41%  
342 9% 38%  
343 1.3% 30%  
344 3% 28%  
345 12% 26%  
346 0.9% 14%  
347 0.2% 13%  
348 2% 13%  
349 1.2% 11%  
350 0.6% 10%  
351 0.1% 9%  
352 0.1% 9%  
353 0.9% 9%  
354 3% 8%  
355 0.9% 6%  
356 0.2% 5%  
357 2% 5%  
358 0.3% 3%  
359 0.1% 3%  
360 2% 3%  
361 0.1% 0.9%  
362 0.1% 0.8%  
363 0% 0.7%  
364 0% 0.6%  
365 0.2% 0.6%  
366 0% 0.4%  
367 0.1% 0.4%  
368 0.2% 0.4%  
369 0.1% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0.1% 100%  
277 0% 99.8%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0.1% 99.7%  
280 0% 99.6%  
281 0% 99.6%  
282 0.1% 99.6%  
283 0.1% 99.5%  
284 0% 99.4%  
285 0% 99.4%  
286 0% 99.4%  
287 0% 99.3%  
288 0.1% 99.3%  
289 0.4% 99.3%  
290 0% 98.9%  
291 0.3% 98.8%  
292 0.3% 98.6%  
293 0.1% 98%  
294 0.1% 98%  
295 2% 98%  
296 0% 96%  
297 0.4% 96% Last Result
298 1.4% 95%  
299 0.4% 94%  
300 0.3% 93%  
301 0.7% 93%  
302 0.1% 92%  
303 0.4% 92%  
304 0.1% 92%  
305 0.5% 92%  
306 0.2% 91%  
307 0% 91%  
308 0.1% 91%  
309 0% 91%  
310 3% 91%  
311 0.1% 88%  
312 1.1% 88%  
313 0.3% 87%  
314 0.5% 87%  
315 0.9% 86%  
316 1.3% 85%  
317 3% 84%  
318 0.5% 81%  
319 11% 81%  
320 15% 70%  
321 0.1% 55%  
322 2% 55%  
323 0.2% 53%  
324 0.4% 53%  
325 0.4% 52%  
326 1.4% 52% Majority
327 1.4% 50%  
328 0.4% 49%  
329 0.4% 49%  
330 0.4% 48% Median
331 0.3% 48%  
332 2% 48%  
333 0.8% 46%  
334 0.3% 45%  
335 2% 45%  
336 0.2% 43%  
337 0.2% 42%  
338 10% 42%  
339 2% 32%  
340 5% 30%  
341 13% 26%  
342 0.2% 13%  
343 1.2% 13%  
344 0.5% 12%  
345 0.5% 11%  
346 0.3% 11%  
347 0.9% 10%  
348 0.3% 9%  
349 0% 9%  
350 3% 9%  
351 0.7% 6%  
352 0.4% 5%  
353 0.9% 5%  
354 0.1% 4%  
355 1.4% 4%  
356 2% 2%  
357 0% 0.8%  
358 0.1% 0.8%  
359 0% 0.7%  
360 0% 0.6%  
361 0.1% 0.6%  
362 0% 0.5%  
363 0% 0.4%  
364 0.2% 0.4%  
365 0.1% 0.2%  
366 0.1% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0.2% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.7%  
252 0% 99.7%  
253 0.1% 99.7%  
254 0.1% 99.6%  
255 0.1% 99.5%  
256 0% 99.4%  
257 2% 99.4%  
258 1.2% 97%  
259 0.1% 96%  
260 0.2% 96%  
261 0% 95%  
262 0% 95%  
263 0% 95%  
264 0.1% 95%  
265 0.1% 95%  
266 0.1% 95%  
267 0% 95%  
268 0.9% 95%  
269 0.1% 94%  
270 0.4% 94%  
271 0.4% 94%  
272 0.4% 93%  
273 1.4% 93%  
274 0.6% 91%  
275 0.3% 91%  
276 0% 90%  
277 0.1% 90%  
278 0.4% 90% Last Result
279 1.0% 90%  
280 0.1% 89%  
281 3% 89%  
282 0.8% 86%  
283 0.1% 86%  
284 0.4% 85%  
285 0.7% 85%  
286 0.3% 84%  
287 0.3% 84%  
288 0.1% 84%  
289 2% 84%  
290 0.1% 82%  
291 11% 82%  
292 13% 71%  
293 0.6% 58%  
294 0.5% 57%  
295 0.2% 57%  
296 6% 57%  
297 2% 51%  
298 3% 49%  
299 0.3% 46%  
300 0.3% 46%  
301 3% 45%  
302 0.8% 42% Median
303 1.1% 41%  
304 0.9% 40%  
305 0.2% 39%  
306 0.4% 39%  
307 2% 39%  
308 9% 37%  
309 1.0% 27%  
310 0.3% 26%  
311 2% 26%  
312 1.3% 24%  
313 2% 22%  
314 0.8% 21%  
315 0.4% 20%  
316 0.7% 19%  
317 0.2% 19%  
318 2% 19%  
319 0.7% 17%  
320 2% 16%  
321 2% 14%  
322 0.3% 12%  
323 0.2% 11%  
324 0.1% 11%  
325 2% 11%  
326 0.1% 9% Majority
327 4% 9%  
328 0% 6%  
329 2% 6%  
330 0.2% 4%  
331 1.2% 4%  
332 0.1% 3%  
333 0.1% 3%  
334 0.1% 3%  
335 1.1% 2%  
336 0% 1.3%  
337 0% 1.3%  
338 0% 1.2%  
339 0.2% 1.2%  
340 0.1% 1.0%  
341 0.1% 0.9%  
342 0.1% 0.9%  
343 0% 0.8%  
344 0% 0.7%  
345 0.2% 0.7%  
346 0.1% 0.5%  
347 0% 0.4%  
348 0.1% 0.4%  
349 0% 0.3%  
350 0% 0.3%  
351 0% 0.3%  
352 0.2% 0.3%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100%  
262 0.1% 99.9%  
263 0.2% 99.8%  
264 0.1% 99.6%  
265 0% 99.6%  
266 0.2% 99.6%  
267 0% 99.4%  
268 0.1% 99.4%  
269 0.1% 99.3%  
270 0.1% 99.2%  
271 2% 99.1%  
272 0.1% 97%  
273 0.3% 97%  
274 2% 97%  
275 0.2% 95%  
276 0.9% 95%  
277 3% 94%  
278 0.9% 92%  
279 0.1% 91%  
280 0.2% 91%  
281 0.5% 91%  
282 1.2% 90%  
283 2% 89%  
284 0.1% 87%  
285 0.9% 87%  
286 12% 86%  
287 3% 74%  
288 1.3% 72%  
289 9% 70%  
290 2% 61%  
291 2% 59%  
292 0.8% 58%  
293 0% 57%  
294 0.8% 57%  
295 3% 56%  
296 0.8% 53%  
297 0.6% 52%  
298 0.6% 52%  
299 1.3% 51%  
300 0.4% 50%  
301 1.3% 49% Median
302 0.4% 48%  
303 0.5% 48%  
304 1.2% 47%  
305 1.5% 46%  
306 0% 45%  
307 14% 45%  
308 0.4% 31%  
309 11% 31%  
310 3% 20%  
311 0.8% 17%  
312 2% 16%  
313 0.3% 14%  
314 0.8% 14%  
315 0.8% 13%  
316 0.3% 12%  
317 3% 12%  
318 0.1% 10%  
319 0.2% 9%  
320 0.2% 9%  
321 0.3% 9%  
322 0.4% 9%  
323 0.2% 8%  
324 0.4% 8%  
325 0.1% 8%  
326 0.4% 8% Majority
327 0.8% 7%  
328 1.4% 7%  
329 0.5% 5% Last Result
330 0.2% 5%  
331 0.1% 4%  
332 2% 4%  
333 0.7% 3%  
334 0% 2%  
335 0.3% 2%  
336 0.3% 2%  
337 0.1% 1.2%  
338 0% 1.1%  
339 0% 1.1%  
340 0.3% 1.1%  
341 0% 0.7%  
342 0% 0.7%  
343 0.1% 0.6%  
344 0.1% 0.5%  
345 0.1% 0.5%  
346 0% 0.4%  
347 0.1% 0.4%  
348 0.1% 0.3%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0.1% 0.2%  
351 0.1% 0.2%  
352 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
251 0.1% 100%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0.2% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.7%  
256 0.1% 99.6%  
257 0% 99.5%  
258 0% 99.5%  
259 0.2% 99.5%  
260 0% 99.3%  
261 0.1% 99.3%  
262 0.4% 99.2%  
263 3% 98.8%  
264 0.1% 96%  
265 0.1% 96%  
266 1.4% 96%  
267 0.3% 94%  
268 0.6% 94%  
269 2% 93%  
270 0.1% 91%  
271 0.1% 91%  
272 1.1% 91%  
273 0.5% 90%  
274 0.1% 90%  
275 0.6% 89%  
276 5% 89%  
277 0.7% 84%  
278 4% 84%  
279 4% 80%  
280 1.1% 75%  
281 1.0% 74%  
282 5% 73%  
283 3% 68%  
284 0.7% 65%  
285 9% 64%  
286 0.2% 55%  
287 0.3% 55%  
288 0.8% 55%  
289 0.5% 54%  
290 3% 54%  
291 0.1% 51%  
292 0.2% 51%  
293 0.2% 51%  
294 3% 50% Median
295 2% 48%  
296 0.2% 46%  
297 1.5% 46%  
298 0.5% 45%  
299 1.4% 44%  
300 13% 43%  
301 0.1% 30%  
302 2% 30%  
303 0.4% 28%  
304 11% 28%  
305 0.6% 17%  
306 0.8% 16%  
307 3% 15%  
308 0.7% 13%  
309 0.1% 12%  
310 0.9% 12%  
311 0.8% 11%  
312 1.0% 10%  
313 0.6% 10%  
314 0.1% 9%  
315 0% 9%  
316 0.5% 9%  
317 0.3% 8%  
318 0.5% 8%  
319 0% 8%  
320 0.2% 8%  
321 0.9% 7% Last Result
322 0.3% 6%  
323 0.1% 6%  
324 0.3% 6%  
325 0.5% 6%  
326 0.4% 5% Majority
327 0.1% 5%  
328 1.4% 5%  
329 0.1% 3%  
330 0% 3%  
331 0% 3%  
332 0.1% 3%  
333 3% 3%  
334 0.1% 0.7%  
335 0% 0.6%  
336 0% 0.6%  
337 0% 0.6%  
338 0% 0.5%  
339 0% 0.5%  
340 0% 0.5%  
341 0.1% 0.4%  
342 0.1% 0.4%  
343 0% 0.3%  
344 0.1% 0.3%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0.1% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0.2% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.7%  
248 0% 99.7%  
249 0.1% 99.7%  
250 0.1% 99.6%  
251 0% 99.4%  
252 0.1% 99.4%  
253 3% 99.3%  
254 0.7% 96%  
255 0.1% 96%  
256 0.1% 96%  
257 0% 95%  
258 0% 95%  
259 0% 95%  
260 0.1% 95%  
261 0.1% 95%  
262 0.1% 95%  
263 0.1% 95%  
264 0.6% 95%  
265 0.8% 94%  
266 0.2% 94%  
267 0.6% 94%  
268 0.2% 93%  
269 1.2% 93%  
270 0.3% 92%  
271 0.4% 91%  
272 0.4% 91%  
273 0% 90%  
274 0.2% 90% Last Result
275 0.9% 90%  
276 0.4% 89%  
277 3% 89%  
278 0.4% 86%  
279 0.2% 86%  
280 0.5% 86%  
281 0.6% 85%  
282 0.3% 84%  
283 0.3% 84%  
284 0.2% 84%  
285 0.4% 84%  
286 0.1% 83%  
287 2% 83%  
288 24% 81%  
289 0.4% 58%  
290 0.4% 57%  
291 0.4% 57%  
292 6% 56%  
293 0% 51%  
294 3% 51%  
295 0.2% 48%  
296 3% 48%  
297 2% 45%  
298 0.8% 43% Median
299 1.1% 42%  
300 2% 41%  
301 0.1% 39%  
302 1.0% 39%  
303 0.9% 38%  
304 9% 37%  
305 1.2% 28%  
306 0.3% 27%  
307 1.4% 26%  
308 0.4% 25%  
309 2% 24%  
310 3% 22%  
311 0.1% 20%  
312 0.9% 20%  
313 0.3% 19%  
314 2% 19%  
315 0.3% 17%  
316 3% 16%  
317 0.3% 13%  
318 0.2% 13%  
319 1.4% 13%  
320 0.3% 11%  
321 2% 11%  
322 0.3% 9%  
323 3% 9%  
324 0.1% 6%  
325 1.2% 6%  
326 0.5% 4% Majority
327 0.1% 4%  
328 0.1% 4%  
329 0.1% 4%  
330 1.2% 4%  
331 0.3% 2%  
332 0% 2%  
333 0.9% 2%  
334 0% 1.3%  
335 0.2% 1.2%  
336 0.1% 1.0%  
337 0% 0.9%  
338 0.1% 0.9%  
339 0% 0.8%  
340 0% 0.8%  
341 0.3% 0.7%  
342 0% 0.5%  
343 0% 0.5%  
344 0.1% 0.4%  
345 0% 0.3%  
346 0% 0.3%  
347 0% 0.3%  
348 0.2% 0.3%  
349 0.1% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0.2% 99.9%  
251 0.1% 99.7%  
252 0% 99.7%  
253 0.1% 99.6%  
254 0.1% 99.5%  
255 0.1% 99.4%  
256 0% 99.3%  
257 0.1% 99.3%  
258 0.4% 99.2%  
259 2% 98.8%  
260 0.1% 97%  
261 1.3% 97%  
262 1.3% 96%  
263 0.3% 94%  
264 0.5% 94%  
265 0.6% 94%  
266 0.7% 93%  
267 1.0% 92%  
268 1.3% 91%  
269 0.4% 90%  
270 0.3% 90%  
271 1.4% 89%  
272 2% 88%  
273 0.7% 86%  
274 4% 85%  
275 6% 81%  
276 0.5% 75%  
277 1.1% 75%  
278 6% 74%  
279 3% 68%  
280 0.3% 65%  
281 6% 64%  
282 0.2% 59%  
283 0.8% 58%  
284 4% 58%  
285 1.3% 54%  
286 1.1% 53%  
287 0.3% 52%  
288 0.8% 51%  
289 0.2% 51%  
290 4% 50% Median
291 0.3% 47%  
292 0.2% 46%  
293 1.3% 46%  
294 0.6% 45%  
295 1.4% 44%  
296 13% 43%  
297 0.3% 30%  
298 0.3% 30%  
299 0.4% 29%  
300 0.1% 29%  
301 12% 29%  
302 0.9% 16%  
303 3% 16%  
304 0.2% 13%  
305 0.3% 13%  
306 0.7% 12%  
307 0.9% 12%  
308 0.6% 11%  
309 0.7% 10%  
310 0.4% 9%  
311 0.2% 9%  
312 0.2% 9%  
313 0.5% 9%  
314 0.3% 8%  
315 0.1% 8%  
316 0.3% 8%  
317 0.3% 7% Last Result
318 0.7% 7%  
319 0.3% 6%  
320 0.1% 6%  
321 0.5% 6%  
322 0.1% 5%  
323 1.4% 5%  
324 0.4% 4%  
325 0% 4%  
326 0.1% 3% Majority
327 0% 3%  
328 0% 3%  
329 2% 3%  
330 0.7% 1.3%  
331 0% 0.6%  
332 0% 0.6%  
333 0% 0.6%  
334 0% 0.5%  
335 0.1% 0.5%  
336 0% 0.4%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.3%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0.1% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
242 0% 100%  
243 0.1% 99.9%  
244 0.3% 99.8%  
245 0.1% 99.5%  
246 0% 99.5%  
247 0.1% 99.4%  
248 0% 99.4%  
249 0% 99.4%  
250 0% 99.4%  
251 0% 99.3%  
252 0.2% 99.3%  
253 1.4% 99.1%  
254 3% 98%  
255 0.2% 95%  
256 0.3% 95%  
257 0% 95%  
258 0.1% 95%  
259 0.1% 95%  
260 0% 95%  
261 0.1% 94%  
262 0.5% 94%  
263 0% 94%  
264 0.2% 94%  
265 0% 94%  
266 2% 94% Last Result
267 3% 92%  
268 2% 88%  
269 0.4% 87%  
270 0.1% 86%  
271 0.5% 86%  
272 0.5% 86%  
273 0% 85%  
274 0.1% 85%  
275 0% 85%  
276 0.1% 85%  
277 0.5% 85%  
278 0.8% 85%  
279 0.8% 84%  
280 0.2% 83%  
281 14% 83%  
282 2% 69%  
283 11% 67%  
284 0.1% 57%  
285 0.3% 56%  
286 1.4% 56%  
287 0.2% 55%  
288 0% 55%  
289 0.9% 55%  
290 0.3% 54%  
291 11% 53% Median
292 3% 42%  
293 0.6% 39%  
294 0.1% 39%  
295 1.2% 38%  
296 4% 37%  
297 6% 33%  
298 2% 28%  
299 0.4% 26%  
300 4% 26%  
301 0.7% 22%  
302 0.9% 21%  
303 3% 20%  
304 0.5% 18%  
305 0% 17%  
306 0.4% 17%  
307 1.4% 17%  
308 3% 15%  
309 0.3% 12%  
310 0.6% 12%  
311 0.3% 12%  
312 0.5% 11%  
313 4% 11%  
314 3% 7%  
315 1.4% 5%  
316 0.2% 3%  
317 0% 3%  
318 0.1% 3%  
319 0.3% 3%  
320 1.2% 3%  
321 0.1% 1.5%  
322 0.1% 1.4%  
323 0% 1.3%  
324 0.2% 1.2%  
325 0.1% 1.0%  
326 0% 0.9% Majority
327 0% 0.9%  
328 0.1% 0.9%  
329 0.2% 0.8%  
330 0.2% 0.6%  
331 0% 0.4%  
332 0% 0.4%  
333 0% 0.4%  
334 0.1% 0.4%  
335 0% 0.3%  
336 0.2% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
238 0% 100%  
239 0.1% 99.9%  
240 0.2% 99.8%  
241 0.1% 99.6%  
242 0.1% 99.5%  
243 0% 99.4%  
244 0% 99.4%  
245 0% 99.4%  
246 0% 99.4%  
247 0.1% 99.3%  
248 1.3% 99.2%  
249 0.1% 98%  
250 2% 98%  
251 0.8% 96%  
252 0.3% 95%  
253 0.1% 95%  
254 0% 95%  
255 0% 95%  
256 0% 95%  
257 0.3% 95%  
258 0% 94%  
259 0.1% 94%  
260 0.5% 94%  
261 0.3% 94%  
262 1.4% 93% Last Result
263 3% 92%  
264 1.3% 89%  
265 0.1% 87%  
266 0.8% 87%  
267 0.6% 86%  
268 0.3% 86%  
269 0.1% 85%  
270 0.1% 85%  
271 0.1% 85%  
272 0.3% 85%  
273 0.2% 85%  
274 0.5% 85%  
275 0.9% 84%  
276 0.7% 83%  
277 13% 83%  
278 1.2% 69%  
279 1.0% 68%  
280 11% 67%  
281 0.1% 56%  
282 2% 56%  
283 0.1% 55%  
284 0.8% 55%  
285 0.1% 54%  
286 1.1% 54%  
287 8% 53% Median
288 1.3% 44%  
289 0.1% 43%  
290 4% 43%  
291 1.5% 39%  
292 4% 37%  
293 5% 33%  
294 2% 28%  
295 0.3% 26%  
296 2% 26%  
297 1.5% 24%  
298 0.8% 23%  
299 4% 22%  
300 0.1% 18%  
301 0.5% 17%  
302 1.2% 17%  
303 0.5% 16%  
304 2% 15%  
305 0.3% 14%  
306 2% 13%  
307 0.1% 12%  
308 0.2% 11%  
309 4% 11%  
310 3% 7%  
311 0.4% 5%  
312 0.1% 4%  
313 0.1% 4%  
314 1.2% 4%  
315 0.3% 3%  
316 0.1% 3%  
317 0.4% 3%  
318 0.9% 2%  
319 0.1% 1.3%  
320 0.2% 1.3%  
321 0.1% 1.1%  
322 0% 1.0%  
323 0% 0.9%  
324 0.1% 0.9%  
325 0.3% 0.8%  
326 0% 0.5% Majority
327 0% 0.5%  
328 0% 0.5%  
329 0% 0.4%  
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.3%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0.1% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations