Opinion Poll by ICM Research for The Guardian, 2–4 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 42.8% 41.4–44.2% 41.0–44.6% 40.7–45.0% 40.0–45.7%
Labour Party 40.0% 41.8% 40.4–43.2% 40.0–43.6% 39.6–43.9% 39.0–44.6%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 6.9% 6.3–7.7% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.1% 5.6–8.5%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 2.0% 1.6–2.4% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.7% 1.3–2.9%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 307 288–336 283–345 281–345 273–347
Labour Party 262 282 253–310 252–311 250–311 242–322
Liberal Democrats 12 11 7–16 6–16 4–16 4–17
Scottish National Party 35 27 9–43 7–46 5–50 3–53
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 4 0 0–2 0–3 0–4 0–4

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0.1% 100%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.8%  
273 0.4% 99.8%  
274 0% 99.4%  
275 0% 99.4%  
276 0.2% 99.3%  
277 0.3% 99.2%  
278 0% 98.9%  
279 0.2% 98.8%  
280 0.5% 98.7%  
281 2% 98%  
282 1.5% 97%  
283 0.7% 95%  
284 0.1% 94%  
285 0.2% 94%  
286 1.0% 94%  
287 1.0% 93%  
288 7% 92%  
289 0.1% 85%  
290 0.8% 85%  
291 0.2% 84%  
292 0.2% 84%  
293 2% 84%  
294 12% 81%  
295 0.2% 70%  
296 0% 69%  
297 2% 69%  
298 0.4% 68%  
299 4% 67%  
300 6% 63%  
301 0.4% 57%  
302 0.3% 57%  
303 0.6% 56%  
304 0.7% 56%  
305 0.1% 55%  
306 4% 55%  
307 0.8% 50% Median
308 1.0% 49%  
309 1.4% 48%  
310 0.7% 47%  
311 0.2% 46%  
312 3% 46%  
313 0.9% 43%  
314 0.4% 42%  
315 4% 42%  
316 1.2% 38%  
317 0.5% 37% Last Result
318 0% 36%  
319 1.1% 36%  
320 4% 35%  
321 0.8% 31%  
322 0.1% 30%  
323 0.1% 30%  
324 4% 30%  
325 4% 26%  
326 0% 22% Majority
327 0.3% 22%  
328 2% 22%  
329 5% 20%  
330 0.1% 15%  
331 0.5% 15%  
332 0.8% 14%  
333 0.4% 14%  
334 0.1% 13%  
335 0.6% 13%  
336 3% 12%  
337 1.2% 10%  
338 0.4% 9%  
339 0.2% 8%  
340 0% 8%  
341 1.0% 8%  
342 0.4% 7%  
343 0.1% 7%  
344 0.2% 7%  
345 5% 7%  
346 0% 1.4%  
347 0.8% 1.3%  
348 0.3% 0.5%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0% 99.8%  
241 0.1% 99.7%  
242 0.2% 99.7%  
243 0.1% 99.4%  
244 0.3% 99.4%  
245 0.3% 99.1%  
246 0.1% 98.8%  
247 0.8% 98.7%  
248 0.3% 98%  
249 0.1% 98%  
250 0.4% 98%  
251 0.5% 97%  
252 4% 97%  
253 3% 93%  
254 3% 90%  
255 4% 87%  
256 0.9% 83%  
257 0% 82%  
258 1.2% 82%  
259 2% 81%  
260 0.7% 79%  
261 3% 78%  
262 2% 75% Last Result
263 4% 73%  
264 2% 70%  
265 5% 68%  
266 0.6% 63%  
267 0.6% 62%  
268 0.9% 62%  
269 0.4% 61%  
270 1.4% 60%  
271 0.7% 59%  
272 0.2% 58%  
273 0.1% 58%  
274 0.5% 58%  
275 0.3% 57%  
276 0.1% 57%  
277 0.9% 57%  
278 0.2% 56%  
279 0% 56%  
280 4% 56%  
281 0.8% 51%  
282 1.2% 51% Median
283 0.4% 49%  
284 0.6% 49%  
285 0.6% 48%  
286 0.8% 48%  
287 0.4% 47%  
288 1.2% 47%  
289 0.6% 46%  
290 0.2% 45%  
291 0.3% 45%  
292 0.2% 44%  
293 0.9% 44%  
294 0% 43%  
295 0.6% 43%  
296 2% 43%  
297 5% 41%  
298 0.2% 36%  
299 7% 36%  
300 4% 29%  
301 1.1% 25%  
302 1.2% 24%  
303 0% 23%  
304 0.1% 23%  
305 1.1% 23%  
306 1.4% 22%  
307 0.1% 20%  
308 4% 20%  
309 5% 16%  
310 4% 12%  
311 6% 8%  
312 0.6% 2%  
313 0% 1.1%  
314 0.2% 1.1%  
315 0.1% 1.0%  
316 0.1% 0.9%  
317 0.1% 0.8%  
318 0% 0.8%  
319 0.1% 0.8%  
320 0% 0.7%  
321 0.1% 0.7%  
322 0.2% 0.6%  
323 0% 0.4%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.2% Majority
327 0% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.2% 99.9%  
3 0.3% 99.8%  
4 3% 99.5%  
5 2% 97%  
6 3% 95%  
7 11% 92%  
8 2% 81%  
9 20% 79%  
10 4% 59%  
11 11% 55% Median
12 4% 44% Last Result
13 9% 40%  
14 11% 30%  
15 8% 20%  
16 10% 12%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.4% 0.5%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 99.9%  
3 0.4% 99.6%  
4 0.4% 99.2%  
5 2% 98.8%  
6 2% 97%  
7 0.7% 95%  
8 0.1% 95%  
9 7% 94%  
10 0.3% 87%  
11 0% 87%  
12 1.0% 87%  
13 0.9% 86%  
14 5% 85%  
15 0.9% 80%  
16 0.5% 79%  
17 0.3% 79%  
18 0.7% 78%  
19 4% 78%  
20 2% 74%  
21 0.9% 72%  
22 0.8% 71%  
23 10% 70%  
24 5% 60%  
25 0.6% 55%  
26 4% 54%  
27 3% 50% Median
28 1.3% 48%  
29 9% 46%  
30 2% 38%  
31 0.2% 36%  
32 0.4% 36%  
33 3% 35%  
34 0% 32%  
35 3% 32% Last Result
36 2% 29%  
37 0.6% 28%  
38 2% 27%  
39 0.8% 25%  
40 6% 24%  
41 5% 18%  
42 3% 14%  
43 1.0% 11%  
44 2% 10%  
45 2% 8%  
46 1.2% 6%  
47 0.1% 5%  
48 0.2% 5%  
49 1.3% 4%  
50 1.4% 3%  
51 0.6% 2%  
52 0.4% 1.2%  
53 0.3% 0.7%  
54 0.4% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 76% 100% Median
1 8% 24%  
2 9% 16%  
3 3% 7%  
4 4% 4% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 336 57% 309–367 308–371 308–373 298–382
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 334 57% 309–367 308–369 308–373 295–381
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 320 45% 297–348 295–352 291–352 284–355
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 324 45% 295–343 286–348 286–350 284–358
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 323 45% 294–343 286–348 286–349 283–357
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 308 22% 288–337 283–345 282–345 274–348
Conservative Party 317 307 22% 288–336 283–345 281–345 273–347
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 311 26% 283–334 279–336 279–340 276–347
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 310 26% 283–334 279–336 279–339 275–346
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 295 1.0% 264–322 260–323 258–323 249–333
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 297 1.2% 264–322 262–323 258–323 250–336
Labour Party 262 282 0.2% 253–310 252–311 250–311 242–322
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 284 0.3% 253–310 252–311 250–311 243–324

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.7%  
295 0% 99.6%  
296 0% 99.6%  
297 0.1% 99.6%  
298 0.3% 99.5%  
299 0% 99.3%  
300 0% 99.2%  
301 0% 99.2%  
302 0.1% 99.2%  
303 0% 99.1%  
304 0% 99.1%  
305 0% 99.1%  
306 0.3% 99.0%  
307 0.4% 98.7%  
308 5% 98%  
309 6% 94%  
310 1.0% 87%  
311 2% 87%  
312 3% 85%  
313 0.1% 81%  
314 4% 81%  
315 0.1% 77%  
316 0% 77%  
317 0% 77%  
318 0.3% 77%  
319 0.9% 77%  
320 0.8% 76%  
321 4% 75%  
322 4% 71%  
323 9% 67%  
324 0.7% 59%  
325 0.5% 58%  
326 0.1% 57% Majority
327 1.3% 57%  
328 0.1% 56%  
329 0.8% 56%  
330 0% 55%  
331 0.1% 55%  
332 0.6% 55%  
333 0.2% 54%  
334 1.3% 54% Median
335 3% 53%  
336 0.4% 50%  
337 4% 50%  
338 0.8% 46%  
339 0.3% 45%  
340 0.8% 45%  
341 1.2% 44%  
342 0.3% 43%  
343 0.1% 43%  
344 0.1% 42%  
345 0.1% 42%  
346 0% 42%  
347 0.2% 42%  
348 0.6% 42%  
349 0% 42%  
350 0.3% 42%  
351 1.2% 41%  
352 4% 40%  
353 4% 36%  
354 0% 32%  
355 8% 32%  
356 0.8% 24% Last Result
357 0.7% 23%  
358 0.1% 22%  
359 0.7% 22%  
360 0.1% 21%  
361 0.5% 21%  
362 1.5% 21%  
363 0.1% 19%  
364 2% 19%  
365 2% 17%  
366 4% 16%  
367 2% 12%  
368 0.2% 10%  
369 4% 10%  
370 0.1% 6%  
371 0.9% 6%  
372 2% 5%  
373 0.5% 3%  
374 0.1% 2%  
375 0.1% 2%  
376 0.3% 2%  
377 0% 2%  
378 0.5% 2%  
379 0.1% 1.3%  
380 0.4% 1.1%  
381 0% 0.7%  
382 0.2% 0.7%  
383 0% 0.5%  
384 0% 0.4%  
385 0.2% 0.4%  
386 0.1% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
283 0.1% 100%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.8%  
292 0% 99.7%  
293 0.1% 99.7%  
294 0.1% 99.6%  
295 0.1% 99.5%  
296 0% 99.4%  
297 0.1% 99.4%  
298 0.1% 99.3%  
299 0.1% 99.2%  
300 0% 99.2%  
301 0% 99.1%  
302 0% 99.1%  
303 0.1% 99.1%  
304 0.1% 99.0%  
305 0.1% 98.9%  
306 0.2% 98.8%  
307 0.6% 98.6%  
308 4% 98%  
309 6% 93%  
310 1.0% 87%  
311 2% 86%  
312 3% 85%  
313 0% 81%  
314 4% 81%  
315 0% 77%  
316 0.2% 77%  
317 0.1% 77%  
318 0.8% 77%  
319 0.9% 76%  
320 0.3% 75%  
321 4% 75%  
322 5% 71%  
323 8% 66%  
324 0.6% 58%  
325 0.6% 58%  
326 1.2% 57% Majority
327 0% 56%  
328 0.9% 56%  
329 0.2% 55%  
330 0.4% 55%  
331 0.9% 55%  
332 0.7% 54%  
333 3% 53%  
334 0.7% 50% Median
335 3% 50%  
336 1.2% 47%  
337 0.1% 45%  
338 0.6% 45%  
339 0.2% 45%  
340 0.7% 44%  
341 1.2% 44%  
342 0.1% 43%  
343 0.1% 42%  
344 0.2% 42%  
345 0.4% 42%  
346 0% 42%  
347 0.4% 42%  
348 0.7% 41%  
349 0.4% 41%  
350 0.4% 40%  
351 1.2% 40%  
352 4% 39% Last Result
353 4% 35%  
354 0% 31%  
355 8% 31%  
356 1.2% 24%  
357 0.3% 22%  
358 0.1% 22%  
359 0.7% 22%  
360 0% 21%  
361 1.0% 21%  
362 1.0% 20%  
363 0.1% 19%  
364 3% 19%  
365 2% 17%  
366 4% 15%  
367 2% 11%  
368 0.9% 10%  
369 4% 9%  
370 1.5% 5%  
371 0.1% 3%  
372 0.6% 3%  
373 0.5% 3%  
374 0.1% 2%  
375 0% 2%  
376 0.5% 2%  
377 0% 1.5%  
378 0.3% 1.5%  
379 0.5% 1.2%  
380 0% 0.7%  
381 0.2% 0.6%  
382 0.1% 0.4%  
383 0% 0.4%  
384 0% 0.4%  
385 0.2% 0.3%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.8%  
284 0.4% 99.8%  
285 0% 99.4%  
286 0.1% 99.4%  
287 0% 99.3%  
288 1.2% 99.3%  
289 0.3% 98%  
290 0.1% 98%  
291 0.3% 98%  
292 1.0% 97%  
293 0.1% 96%  
294 0.3% 96%  
295 2% 96%  
296 1.0% 94%  
297 4% 93%  
298 0.8% 89%  
299 0% 88%  
300 0.2% 88%  
301 4% 88%  
302 2% 84%  
303 8% 81%  
304 0.1% 74%  
305 0.1% 74%  
306 0.4% 74%  
307 0.4% 73%  
308 9% 73%  
309 0.1% 64%  
310 0.2% 64%  
311 6% 64%  
312 0.2% 58%  
313 0.9% 58%  
314 1.3% 57%  
315 0.4% 55%  
316 3% 55%  
317 0.7% 52%  
318 0.6% 52% Median
319 0.4% 51%  
320 1.3% 51%  
321 0.7% 49%  
322 2% 49%  
323 0.2% 47%  
324 1.3% 46%  
325 0.1% 45%  
326 3% 45% Majority
327 0.8% 42%  
328 1.2% 41%  
329 0.8% 40% Last Result
330 4% 39%  
331 4% 36%  
332 0.3% 32%  
333 2% 31%  
334 0.5% 29%  
335 0.6% 29%  
336 1.3% 28%  
337 0% 27%  
338 7% 27%  
339 0.5% 20%  
340 3% 20%  
341 0.1% 16%  
342 0.4% 16%  
343 0.2% 16%  
344 1.0% 16%  
345 4% 15%  
346 0.3% 11%  
347 0.1% 11%  
348 2% 11%  
349 0.2% 8%  
350 0.2% 8%  
351 1.1% 8%  
352 5% 7%  
353 0.1% 2%  
354 0.3% 2%  
355 0.9% 1.3%  
356 0.2% 0.4%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0.3% 99.8%  
284 0.8% 99.5%  
285 0% 98.7%  
286 5% 98.6%  
287 0.2% 93%  
288 0.1% 93%  
289 0.4% 93%  
290 1.0% 93%  
291 0% 92%  
292 0.2% 92%  
293 0.4% 92%  
294 1.2% 91%  
295 3% 90%  
296 0.6% 88%  
297 0.1% 87%  
298 0.4% 87%  
299 0.8% 86%  
300 0.5% 86%  
301 0.1% 85%  
302 5% 85%  
303 2% 80%  
304 0.3% 78%  
305 0% 78%  
306 4% 78%  
307 4% 74%  
308 0.1% 70%  
309 0.1% 70%  
310 0.8% 70%  
311 4% 69%  
312 1.1% 65%  
313 0% 64% Last Result
314 0.5% 64%  
315 1.2% 63%  
316 4% 62%  
317 0.4% 58%  
318 0.9% 58%  
319 3% 57%  
320 0.2% 54% Median
321 0.7% 54%  
322 1.4% 53%  
323 1.0% 52%  
324 0.8% 51%  
325 4% 50%  
326 0.1% 45% Majority
327 0.7% 45%  
328 0.6% 44%  
329 0.3% 44%  
330 0.4% 43%  
331 6% 43%  
332 4% 37%  
333 0.4% 33%  
334 2% 32%  
335 0% 31%  
336 0.2% 31%  
337 12% 30%  
338 2% 19%  
339 0.2% 16%  
340 0.2% 16%  
341 0.8% 16%  
342 0.1% 15%  
343 7% 15%  
344 1.0% 8%  
345 1.0% 7%  
346 0.2% 6%  
347 0.1% 6%  
348 0.7% 6%  
349 1.5% 5%  
350 2% 3%  
351 0.5% 2%  
352 0.2% 1.3%  
353 0% 1.2%  
354 0.3% 1.1%  
355 0.2% 0.8%  
356 0% 0.7%  
357 0% 0.6%  
358 0.4% 0.6%  
359 0% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0.1% 0.1%  
363 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.8%  
283 0.3% 99.8%  
284 0.8% 99.5%  
285 0% 98.6%  
286 5% 98.6%  
287 0.1% 93%  
288 0.1% 93%  
289 0.5% 93%  
290 1.0% 93%  
291 0% 92%  
292 0.3% 92%  
293 0.2% 91%  
294 1.2% 91%  
295 3% 90%  
296 0.8% 87%  
297 0.3% 86%  
298 0.4% 86%  
299 0% 86%  
300 0.4% 85%  
301 2% 85%  
302 6% 83%  
303 0.1% 78%  
304 0% 78%  
305 0% 78%  
306 4% 78%  
307 4% 74%  
308 1.4% 70%  
309 0.2% 68% Last Result
310 0.7% 68%  
311 3% 68%  
312 0.6% 64%  
313 0.8% 64%  
314 0.8% 63%  
315 1.2% 62%  
316 4% 61%  
317 3% 57%  
318 0.7% 55%  
319 0.6% 54%  
320 0% 53% Median
321 1.1% 53%  
322 2% 52%  
323 3% 50%  
324 0.6% 47%  
325 2% 47%  
326 0.2% 45% Majority
327 0.6% 45%  
328 0.9% 44%  
329 0.2% 43%  
330 0.5% 43%  
331 7% 43%  
332 4% 36%  
333 0.3% 32%  
334 1.0% 31%  
335 0.3% 30%  
336 0.2% 30%  
337 12% 30%  
338 2% 18%  
339 0.1% 16%  
340 0.9% 16%  
341 0.1% 15%  
342 0.3% 15%  
343 7% 15%  
344 2% 8%  
345 0.2% 6%  
346 0.1% 5%  
347 0.1% 5%  
348 0.5% 5%  
349 3% 5%  
350 0.4% 2%  
351 0.3% 2%  
352 0.2% 1.2%  
353 0.1% 1.0%  
354 0.3% 1.0%  
355 0% 0.7%  
356 0% 0.6%  
357 0.4% 0.6%  
358 0.1% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.9%  
274 0.4% 99.8%  
275 0% 99.4%  
276 0% 99.4%  
277 0.3% 99.3%  
278 0.1% 99.0%  
279 0.2% 99.0%  
280 0.3% 98.8%  
281 0.4% 98%  
282 3% 98%  
283 0.5% 95%  
284 0.1% 95%  
285 0.1% 95%  
286 0.2% 95%  
287 2% 94%  
288 7% 92%  
289 0.3% 85%  
290 0.1% 85%  
291 0.9% 85%  
292 0.1% 84%  
293 2% 84%  
294 12% 82%  
295 0.2% 70%  
296 0.3% 70%  
297 1.0% 70%  
298 0.3% 69%  
299 4% 68%  
300 7% 64%  
301 0.5% 57%  
302 0.2% 57%  
303 0.9% 57%  
304 0.6% 56%  
305 0.2% 55%  
306 2% 55%  
307 0.6% 53% Median
308 3% 53%  
309 2% 50%  
310 1.1% 48%  
311 0% 47%  
312 0.6% 47%  
313 0.7% 46%  
314 3% 45%  
315 4% 43%  
316 1.2% 39%  
317 0.8% 38%  
318 0.8% 37%  
319 0.6% 36%  
320 3% 36%  
321 0.7% 32% Last Result
322 0.2% 32%  
323 1.4% 32%  
324 4% 30%  
325 4% 26%  
326 0% 22% Majority
327 0% 22%  
328 0.1% 22%  
329 6% 22%  
330 2% 17%  
331 0.4% 15%  
332 0% 15%  
333 0.4% 14%  
334 0.3% 14%  
335 0.8% 14%  
336 3% 13%  
337 1.2% 10%  
338 0.2% 9%  
339 0.3% 9%  
340 0% 8%  
341 1.0% 8%  
342 0.5% 7%  
343 0.1% 7%  
344 0.1% 7%  
345 5% 7%  
346 0% 1.4%  
347 0.8% 1.4%  
348 0.3% 0.5%  
349 0.1% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0.1% 100%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.8%  
273 0.4% 99.8%  
274 0% 99.4%  
275 0% 99.4%  
276 0.2% 99.3%  
277 0.3% 99.2%  
278 0% 98.9%  
279 0.2% 98.8%  
280 0.5% 98.7%  
281 2% 98%  
282 1.5% 97%  
283 0.7% 95%  
284 0.1% 94%  
285 0.2% 94%  
286 1.0% 94%  
287 1.0% 93%  
288 7% 92%  
289 0.1% 85%  
290 0.8% 85%  
291 0.2% 84%  
292 0.2% 84%  
293 2% 84%  
294 12% 81%  
295 0.2% 70%  
296 0% 69%  
297 2% 69%  
298 0.4% 68%  
299 4% 67%  
300 6% 63%  
301 0.4% 57%  
302 0.3% 57%  
303 0.6% 56%  
304 0.7% 56%  
305 0.1% 55%  
306 4% 55%  
307 0.8% 50% Median
308 1.0% 49%  
309 1.4% 48%  
310 0.7% 47%  
311 0.2% 46%  
312 3% 46%  
313 0.9% 43%  
314 0.4% 42%  
315 4% 42%  
316 1.2% 38%  
317 0.5% 37% Last Result
318 0% 36%  
319 1.1% 36%  
320 4% 35%  
321 0.8% 31%  
322 0.1% 30%  
323 0.1% 30%  
324 4% 30%  
325 4% 26%  
326 0% 22% Majority
327 0.3% 22%  
328 2% 22%  
329 5% 20%  
330 0.1% 15%  
331 0.5% 15%  
332 0.8% 14%  
333 0.4% 14%  
334 0.1% 13%  
335 0.6% 13%  
336 3% 12%  
337 1.2% 10%  
338 0.4% 9%  
339 0.2% 8%  
340 0% 8%  
341 1.0% 8%  
342 0.4% 7%  
343 0.1% 7%  
344 0.2% 7%  
345 5% 7%  
346 0% 1.4%  
347 0.8% 1.3%  
348 0.3% 0.5%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.8%  
275 0.2% 99.8%  
276 0.9% 99.6%  
277 0.3% 98.7%  
278 0.1% 98%  
279 5% 98%  
280 1.1% 93%  
281 0.2% 92%  
282 0.2% 92%  
283 2% 92%  
284 0.1% 89%  
285 0.3% 89%  
286 4% 89%  
287 1.0% 85%  
288 0.2% 84%  
289 0.4% 84%  
290 0.1% 84%  
291 3% 84%  
292 0.5% 80%  
293 7% 80%  
294 0% 73%  
295 1.3% 73%  
296 0.6% 72%  
297 0.5% 71%  
298 2% 71%  
299 0.3% 69%  
300 4% 68%  
301 4% 64% Last Result
302 0.8% 61%  
303 1.2% 60%  
304 0.8% 59%  
305 3% 58%  
306 0.1% 55%  
307 1.3% 55%  
308 0.2% 54%  
309 2% 53% Median
310 0.7% 51%  
311 1.3% 51%  
312 0.4% 49%  
313 0.6% 49%  
314 0.7% 48%  
315 3% 48%  
316 0.4% 45%  
317 1.3% 45%  
318 0.9% 43%  
319 0.2% 42%  
320 6% 42%  
321 0.2% 36%  
322 0.1% 36%  
323 9% 36%  
324 0.4% 27%  
325 0.4% 27%  
326 0.1% 26% Majority
327 0.1% 26%  
328 8% 26%  
329 2% 19%  
330 4% 16%  
331 0.2% 12%  
332 0% 12%  
333 0.8% 12%  
334 4% 11%  
335 1.0% 7%  
336 2% 6%  
337 0.3% 4%  
338 0.1% 4%  
339 1.0% 4%  
340 0.3% 3%  
341 0.1% 2%  
342 0.3% 2%  
343 1.2% 2%  
344 0% 0.7%  
345 0.1% 0.7%  
346 0% 0.6%  
347 0.4% 0.6%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0.1% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0.2% 99.7%  
276 0.9% 99.5%  
277 0.3% 98.6%  
278 0.1% 98%  
279 5% 98%  
280 1.1% 93%  
281 0.2% 92%  
282 0.2% 92%  
283 2% 91%  
284 0.2% 89%  
285 0.4% 89%  
286 4% 89%  
287 1.1% 85%  
288 0.4% 84%  
289 0.3% 84%  
290 0% 83%  
291 4% 83%  
292 1.3% 80%  
293 6% 79%  
294 0.7% 72%  
295 0.8% 72%  
296 2% 71%  
297 0.8% 69% Last Result
298 0.3% 68%  
299 0.7% 68%  
300 5% 67%  
301 4% 63%  
302 0.3% 58%  
303 2% 58%  
304 0.9% 56%  
305 0.3% 55%  
306 0.7% 55%  
307 3% 54%  
308 0.2% 50%  
309 0.2% 50% Median
310 0.1% 50%  
311 1.1% 50%  
312 0.9% 49%  
313 0.1% 48%  
314 1.0% 48%  
315 2% 47%  
316 1.1% 44%  
317 0.5% 43%  
318 0.8% 43%  
319 0.3% 42%  
320 6% 42%  
321 0.4% 36%  
322 0.1% 35%  
323 9% 35%  
324 0.3% 27%  
325 0.1% 26%  
326 0.1% 26% Majority
327 0.1% 26%  
328 8% 26%  
329 2% 18%  
330 4% 16%  
331 0.2% 12%  
332 0.2% 12%  
333 0.8% 11%  
334 5% 11%  
335 0.3% 6%  
336 2% 5%  
337 0.1% 4%  
338 1.0% 3%  
339 0.2% 3%  
340 0.2% 2%  
341 0.3% 2%  
342 1.2% 2%  
343 0% 0.7%  
344 0.1% 0.7%  
345 0% 0.6%  
346 0.4% 0.6%  
347 0.1% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0.1% 99.9%  
246 0.2% 99.8%  
247 0% 99.6%  
248 0% 99.6%  
249 0.2% 99.5%  
250 0% 99.3%  
251 0.4% 99.3%  
252 0.1% 98.9%  
253 0.5% 98.7%  
254 0% 98%  
255 0.3% 98%  
256 0.1% 98%  
257 0.1% 98%  
258 0.5% 98%  
259 2% 97%  
260 0.9% 95%  
261 0.1% 94%  
262 4% 94%  
263 0.2% 90%  
264 2% 90%  
265 4% 88%  
266 2% 84%  
267 2% 83%  
268 0.1% 81%  
269 1.5% 81%  
270 0.5% 79%  
271 0.1% 79%  
272 0.7% 79%  
273 0.1% 78%  
274 0.7% 78% Last Result
275 0.8% 77%  
276 8% 76%  
277 0% 68%  
278 4% 68%  
279 4% 64%  
280 1.2% 60%  
281 0.3% 59%  
282 0% 58%  
283 0.6% 58%  
284 0.2% 58%  
285 0% 58%  
286 0.1% 58%  
287 0.1% 58%  
288 0.1% 58%  
289 0.3% 57%  
290 1.2% 57%  
291 0.8% 56%  
292 0.3% 55%  
293 0.8% 55% Median
294 4% 54%  
295 0.4% 50%  
296 3% 50%  
297 1.3% 47%  
298 0.2% 46%  
299 0.6% 46%  
300 0.1% 45%  
301 0% 45%  
302 0.8% 45%  
303 0.1% 44%  
304 1.3% 44%  
305 0.1% 43%  
306 0.5% 43%  
307 0.7% 42%  
308 9% 41%  
309 4% 33%  
310 4% 29%  
311 0.8% 25%  
312 0.9% 24%  
313 0.3% 23%  
314 0% 23%  
315 0% 23%  
316 0.1% 23%  
317 4% 23%  
318 0.1% 19%  
319 3% 19%  
320 2% 15%  
321 1.0% 13%  
322 6% 13%  
323 5% 6%  
324 0.4% 2%  
325 0.3% 1.3%  
326 0% 1.0% Majority
327 0% 0.9%  
328 0% 0.9%  
329 0.1% 0.9%  
330 0% 0.8%  
331 0% 0.8%  
332 0% 0.8%  
333 0.3% 0.7%  
334 0.1% 0.5%  
335 0% 0.4%  
336 0% 0.4%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.3%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0.2% 99.8%  
247 0% 99.7%  
248 0% 99.6%  
249 0.1% 99.6%  
250 0.2% 99.6%  
251 0% 99.4%  
252 0.5% 99.3%  
253 0.3% 98.8%  
254 0% 98.5%  
255 0.5% 98.5%  
256 0% 98%  
257 0.1% 98%  
258 0.5% 98%  
259 0.6% 97%  
260 0.1% 97%  
261 1.5% 97%  
262 4% 95%  
263 0.9% 91%  
264 2% 90%  
265 4% 89%  
266 2% 85%  
267 3% 83%  
268 0.1% 81%  
269 1.0% 81%  
270 1.0% 80%  
271 0% 79%  
272 0.7% 79%  
273 0.1% 78%  
274 0.3% 78%  
275 1.2% 78%  
276 8% 76%  
277 0% 69%  
278 4% 69% Last Result
279 4% 65%  
280 1.2% 61%  
281 0.4% 60%  
282 0.4% 60%  
283 0.7% 59%  
284 0.4% 59%  
285 0% 58%  
286 0.4% 58%  
287 0.2% 58%  
288 0.1% 58%  
289 0.1% 58%  
290 1.2% 57%  
291 0.7% 56%  
292 0.2% 56%  
293 0.6% 55% Median
294 0.1% 55%  
295 1.2% 55%  
296 3% 53%  
297 0.7% 50%  
298 3% 50%  
299 0.7% 47%  
300 0.9% 46%  
301 0.4% 45%  
302 0.2% 45%  
303 0.9% 45%  
304 0% 44%  
305 1.2% 44%  
306 0.6% 43%  
307 0.6% 42%  
308 8% 42%  
309 5% 34%  
310 4% 29%  
311 0.3% 25%  
312 0.9% 25%  
313 0.8% 24%  
314 0.1% 23%  
315 0.2% 23%  
316 0% 23%  
317 4% 23%  
318 0% 19%  
319 3% 19%  
320 2% 15%  
321 1.0% 14%  
322 6% 13%  
323 4% 7%  
324 0.6% 2%  
325 0.2% 1.4%  
326 0.1% 1.2% Majority
327 0.1% 1.1%  
328 0.1% 1.0%  
329 0% 0.9%  
330 0% 0.9%  
331 0% 0.9%  
332 0.1% 0.8%  
333 0.1% 0.8%  
334 0.1% 0.7%  
335 0% 0.6%  
336 0.1% 0.6%  
337 0.1% 0.5%  
338 0.1% 0.4%  
339 0% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.3%  
341 0.1% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0.1% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0% 99.8%  
241 0.1% 99.7%  
242 0.2% 99.7%  
243 0.1% 99.4%  
244 0.3% 99.4%  
245 0.3% 99.1%  
246 0.1% 98.8%  
247 0.8% 98.7%  
248 0.3% 98%  
249 0.1% 98%  
250 0.4% 98%  
251 0.5% 97%  
252 4% 97%  
253 3% 93%  
254 3% 90%  
255 4% 87%  
256 0.9% 83%  
257 0% 82%  
258 1.2% 82%  
259 2% 81%  
260 0.7% 79%  
261 3% 78%  
262 2% 75% Last Result
263 4% 73%  
264 2% 70%  
265 5% 68%  
266 0.6% 63%  
267 0.6% 62%  
268 0.9% 62%  
269 0.4% 61%  
270 1.4% 60%  
271 0.7% 59%  
272 0.2% 58%  
273 0.1% 58%  
274 0.5% 58%  
275 0.3% 57%  
276 0.1% 57%  
277 0.9% 57%  
278 0.2% 56%  
279 0% 56%  
280 4% 56%  
281 0.8% 51%  
282 1.2% 51% Median
283 0.4% 49%  
284 0.6% 49%  
285 0.6% 48%  
286 0.8% 48%  
287 0.4% 47%  
288 1.2% 47%  
289 0.6% 46%  
290 0.2% 45%  
291 0.3% 45%  
292 0.2% 44%  
293 0.9% 44%  
294 0% 43%  
295 0.6% 43%  
296 2% 43%  
297 5% 41%  
298 0.2% 36%  
299 7% 36%  
300 4% 29%  
301 1.1% 25%  
302 1.2% 24%  
303 0% 23%  
304 0.1% 23%  
305 1.1% 23%  
306 1.4% 22%  
307 0.1% 20%  
308 4% 20%  
309 5% 16%  
310 4% 12%  
311 6% 8%  
312 0.6% 2%  
313 0% 1.1%  
314 0.2% 1.1%  
315 0.1% 1.0%  
316 0.1% 0.9%  
317 0.1% 0.8%  
318 0% 0.8%  
319 0.1% 0.8%  
320 0% 0.7%  
321 0.1% 0.7%  
322 0.2% 0.6%  
323 0% 0.4%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.2% Majority
327 0% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0.3% 99.8%  
243 0.1% 99.5%  
244 0.3% 99.5%  
245 0.1% 99.1%  
246 0.2% 99.0%  
247 0.2% 98.8%  
248 0.6% 98.6%  
249 0.4% 98%  
250 0.3% 98%  
251 0.5% 97%  
252 4% 97%  
253 3% 93%  
254 1.1% 90%  
255 4% 88%  
256 2% 84%  
257 0% 83%  
258 0.5% 83%  
259 2% 82%  
260 1.0% 80%  
261 4% 79%  
262 2% 75%  
263 4% 74%  
264 2% 70%  
265 5% 68%  
266 0.4% 63% Last Result
267 0.4% 63%  
268 0.9% 62%  
269 0.2% 62%  
270 0.9% 61%  
271 1.3% 61%  
272 0.2% 59%  
273 0.6% 59%  
274 0.7% 58%  
275 0.2% 58%  
276 0.2% 58%  
277 0.1% 57%  
278 0.3% 57%  
279 0.3% 57%  
280 0.5% 57%  
281 0.2% 56%  
282 5% 56% Median
283 0.7% 51%  
284 0.2% 50%  
285 0.1% 50%  
286 2% 50%  
287 0.9% 48%  
288 0.6% 47%  
289 1.0% 47%  
290 0.6% 46%  
291 0.4% 45%  
292 0.1% 45%  
293 0.9% 44%  
294 0% 44%  
295 0.2% 44%  
296 0.7% 43%  
297 5% 43%  
298 2% 38%  
299 7% 36%  
300 4% 29%  
301 0.5% 25%  
302 2% 25%  
303 0% 23%  
304 0.1% 23%  
305 1.1% 23%  
306 1.4% 22%  
307 0.1% 20%  
308 4% 20%  
309 5% 16%  
310 4% 12%  
311 6% 8%  
312 0.4% 2%  
313 0.2% 1.4%  
314 0.1% 1.2%  
315 0% 1.2%  
316 0% 1.1%  
317 0.2% 1.1%  
318 0.1% 0.9%  
319 0% 0.8%  
320 0% 0.8%  
321 0.1% 0.8%  
322 0.1% 0.7%  
323 0.1% 0.6%  
324 0.1% 0.5%  
325 0.1% 0.5%  
326 0% 0.3% Majority
327 0% 0.3%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations